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Author Topic: The swingiest card ever  (Read 3978 times)

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Burning Skull

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The swingiest card ever
« on: June 26, 2017, 07:35:44 am »
+10

You are a true King of Dominion. Your plays are 93% correct all the time.
You park the limo in front of your palace and head inside, waving to peasants, who are blinded by your beautiful golden teeth and leopard leggings.
With an aristocratic gesture you put your shades on and start a new game, sure of your inevitable victory even before seeing the kingdom.
...
Few minutes have passed and OH MY GOD, what is this? You've lost the game!!! Your palace burns, your are on your knees, barking like a dog, crying, chewing paper.
Peasants are all around, they are happy, they pillage, they laugh, they find you and hang you in the ball room, beforehand letting you know they never actually thought you are a good Dominion player.

So what led to this terrible disaster? Were there maybe some bad choices you've made in the game? Impossible, you are the King after all!
It must have been luck! What card did this cruel thing to you?
Was it a Chapel, missing the shuffle and colliding with a freshly bought Duchess? Was it a Bag of Gold, which your opponent stole from you in a Tournament? Or was your entire deck Swindled into Curses?

What is this unholy abomination of a card, which will serve you as a tombstone?

Awaclus

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Re: The swingiest card ever
« Reply #1 on: June 26, 2017, 08:03:50 am »
0

I don't think anything comes even close to Chapel. If your opponent opens 5/2 and you don't and there's a $5 worth opening with, you're pretty screwed. If your Chapel collides with your other card, you're pretty screwed. If your Chapel misses the reshuffle, you're completely screwed. At least Sauna gives you a chance to recover by including two separate splits, both of which you want to win so even if you fall behind on trashing, you can win the splits to make up for it a little, although it's also a pretty big offender.
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LastFootnote

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Re: The swingiest card ever
« Reply #2 on: June 26, 2017, 08:56:01 am »
0

I don't think anything comes even close to Chapel. If your opponent opens 5/2 and you don't and there's a $5 worth opening with, you're pretty screwed. If your Chapel collides with your other card, you're pretty screwed. If your Chapel misses the reshuffle, you're completely screwed. At least Sauna gives you a chance to recover by including two separate splits, both of which you want to win so even if you fall behind on trashing, you can win the splits to make up for it a little, although it's also a pretty big offender.

Even if your Chapel collides with 4 Coppers, you're pretty screwed compared to an opponent who was able to trash an Estate or two on turn 3 or 4.
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McGarnacle

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Re: The swingiest card ever
« Reply #3 on: June 26, 2017, 09:01:55 am »
0

I went with Tournament. The fact that it requires more steps to pull off I think makes it more swingy.
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Watno

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Re: The swingiest card ever
« Reply #4 on: June 26, 2017, 09:04:09 am »
+1

Where is minion? It sure feels like the swingiest card ever?
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Chris is me

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Re: The swingiest card ever
« Reply #5 on: June 26, 2017, 09:08:12 am »
+1

Swindler tbh, the rest at least feel like they are recoverable while I'm still playing, even if the odds really are near zero.
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LastFootnote

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Re: The swingiest card ever
« Reply #6 on: June 26, 2017, 10:19:25 am »
0

I went with Tournament. The fact that it requires more steps to pull off I think makes it more swingy.

Tournament definitely leads to me resigning more than any other card on this list. Once they get two more Prizes than me, I feel like that's it, game over. (Assuming I was going for Tournament too, which I basically always do.)

All that said, I'm guessing Chapel is actually more swingy, and I voted for that.
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Awaclus

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Re: The swingiest card ever
« Reply #7 on: June 26, 2017, 10:26:03 am »
0

I went with Tournament. The fact that it requires more steps to pull off I think makes it more swingy.

Tournament isn't that swingy, you have plenty of time to mitigate the RNG with your choices before it really kicks in.
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Skumpy

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Re: The swingiest card ever
« Reply #8 on: June 26, 2017, 11:02:00 am »
0

*cough Black Market *cough
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-Stef-

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Re: The swingiest card ever
« Reply #9 on: June 26, 2017, 12:21:26 pm »
+3

*cough Black Market *cough

Nope, Black market isn't swingy at all, but there are some people who like to blame their losses on this card.
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JW

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Re: The swingiest card ever
« Reply #10 on: June 26, 2017, 12:59:56 pm »
0

Nope, Black market isn't swingy at all, but there are some people who like to blame their losses on this card.

This is even more true in the new Dominion Online, because the Black Market has 60 cards which means that it's very unlikely that one player will get, say, the only two +buy cards out of the Black Market (as could happen in the old implementation with a 25-card Black Market). Speaking of, Stef, why does your signature link to the Dominion league and not to Dominion Online?
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xyz123

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Re: The swingiest card ever
« Reply #11 on: June 26, 2017, 01:32:20 pm »
+2

Dame Anna when she is the top Knight and there are no other trashers.

Followers when there are no trashers and no other cursers. It might as well just say ruin both decks but have a points swing in your favour.
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Qvist

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Re: The swingiest card ever
« Reply #12 on: June 26, 2017, 01:56:57 pm »
+1

Interesting question. Doctor might be really high up there. If you open 5/2 and draw Doctor turn 2 again, maybe even trashing 3 Coppers, you are like 3 turns already in turn 2.
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Cave-o-sapien

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Re: The swingiest card ever
« Reply #13 on: June 26, 2017, 03:04:01 pm »
0

To me it's Swindler.

I feel like what makes Chapel swingy isn't that different from what makes any game swingy, but with Swindler the swinginess is built into the card (more or less).

A turn 3 Swindler could trash an Estate for an Estate, potentially helping your opponent; or it could turn their 5-cost buy into a Duchy before they get to use it once.
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LastFootnote

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Re: The swingiest card ever
« Reply #14 on: June 26, 2017, 03:07:08 pm »
+1

To me it's Swindler.

I feel like what makes Chapel swingy isn't that different from what makes any game swingy, but with Swindler the swinginess is built into the card (more or less).

A turn 3 Swindler could trash an Estate for an Estate, potentially helping your opponent; or it could turn their 5-cost buy into a Duchy before they get to use it once.

I think any card that lets you trash two or more cards at once is incredibly swingy. Trading Post, Chapel, and Sentry are the big ones that come to mind. Also Steward. If you can trash two Estates on turn 3 or 4, that's just such an enormous boost. Swinder can turn your early $5 into a Duchy, but apart from that I don't think it comes close to Chapel.
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Chris is me

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Re: The swingiest card ever
« Reply #15 on: June 26, 2017, 03:23:17 pm »
+5

okay now that I remember Sentry exists it is definitely the absolute swingiest card here because my opponents somehow always manage to repeatedly trash two cards while it consistently collides with my good stuff
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LastFootnote

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Re: The swingiest card ever
« Reply #16 on: June 26, 2017, 03:41:03 pm »
+1

okay now that I remember Sentry exists it is definitely the absolute swingiest card here because my opponents somehow always manage to repeatedly trash two cards while it consistently collides with my good stuff

Yes, in retrospect I wish I had suggested "You may trash one of them. You may discard one of them. Put the rest back in any order." Maybe it would have been too weak that way, dunno.
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aku_chi

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Re: The swingiest card ever
« Reply #17 on: June 26, 2017, 03:42:53 pm »
+1

I don't know how to answer this question, but I do want to chime in that Urchin definitely deserves its place in the list.  If somebody gets their Mercenary a shuffle earlier (which happens often), that player's advantage can snowball quickly.  Trying to fight back against an opponent's early Mercenary is very unpleasant.

I also find Familiar and Cultist to be some of the swingiest cards.  With these cards, it doesn't take much luck/variance to win or lose the Curse or Ruins split by 7-3 or more.  On some boards, this is simply game over.  With all of the other junkers, I expect the junk split to be 6-4 or 5-5 if both players pursue the junker.
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drsteelhammer

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Re: The swingiest card ever
« Reply #18 on: June 26, 2017, 03:43:12 pm »
0

Swingy in Dominion context means that it's quite luck dependant -> the less skilled player is more likely to win, right?

If so, I think Chapel is one of the least swingy cards in the game. My vote would go to either Swindler or Jack
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JW

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Re: The swingiest card ever
« Reply #19 on: June 26, 2017, 03:51:36 pm »
+2

Swingy in Dominion context means that it's quite luck dependant -> the less skilled player is more likely to win, right?

If so, I think Chapel is one of the least swingy cards in the game. My vote would go to either Swindler or Jack

rrenaud calculated a measure like this several years ago: http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=2798.msg47781#msg47781

Black Market and Chapel are among the least swingy. Jack, Embassy, and Swindler are among the most swingy. Tournament is among the less swingy cards. This was pre-Dark Ages.

This is from sample of 2.5 M iso games. 

The measure is how hard a time trueskill had at predicting the winner, measured in conditional entropy given a card was in the supply. 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conditional_entropy

Goons 0.689 0.002
Colony 0.694 0.001
Platinum 0.694 0.001
Bishop 0.695 0.002
Ambassador 0.695 0.002
Grand Market 0.696 0.002
Black Market 0.696 0.002
Worker's Village 0.697 0.002
Chapel 0.697 0.002
Peddler 0.698 0.002
Young Witch 0.698 0.003
Expand 0.699 0.002
Masquerade 0.699 0.002
Hunting Party 0.699 0.002
Witch 0.700 0.002
Ghost Ship 0.700 0.002
Hamlet 0.700 0.002
Mountebank 0.700 0.002
Minion 0.700 0.002
King's Court 0.700 0.002
Sea Hag 0.700 0.002
City 0.700 0.002
Scrying Pool 0.700 0.002
Menagerie 0.700 0.002
Festival 0.701 0.002
Torturer 0.701 0.002
Steward 0.701 0.002
Apprentice 0.701 0.002
Familiar 0.701 0.003
Forge 0.701 0.002
Walled Village 0.702 0.002
Trade Route 0.702 0.002
Fishing Village 0.702 0.002
Tournament 0.702 0.002
Village 0.703 0.002
Quarry 0.703 0.002
Market 0.703 0.002
Mint 0.703 0.002
Ill-Gotten Gains 0.703 0.003
University 0.703 0.002
Pirate Ship 0.703 0.002
Ironworks 0.703 0.002
Upgrade 0.703 0.002
Talisman 0.703 0.002
Bridge 0.704 0.002
Great Hall 0.704 0.002
Vineyard 0.704 0.002
Outpost 0.704 0.002
Scheme 0.704 0.003
Remake 0.704 0.002
Border Village 0.704 0.003
Remodel 0.704 0.002
Warehouse 0.704 0.002
Thief 0.704 0.002
Salvager 0.704 0.002
Wharf 0.705 0.002
Spice Merchant 0.705 0.003
Haven 0.705 0.002
Mining Village 0.705 0.002
Farming Village 0.705 0.002
Rabble 0.705 0.002
Contraband 0.705 0.002
Potion 0.706 0.001
Workshop 0.706 0.002
Bazaar 0.706 0.002
Fairgrounds 0.706 0.002
Woodcutter 0.706 0.002
Native Village 0.706 0.002
Alchemist 0.706 0.002
Watchtower 0.706 0.002
Horse Traders 0.707 0.002
Throne Room 0.707 0.002
Fortune Teller 0.707 0.002
Governor 0.707 0.003
Lookout 0.707 0.002
Mine 0.707 0.002
Archivist 0.707 0.038
Spy 0.707 0.002
Apothecary 0.708 0.002
Farmland 0.708 0.003
Monument 0.708 0.002
Tactician 0.708 0.002
Smugglers 0.708 0.002
Loan 0.708 0.002
Transmute 0.708 0.002
Envoy 0.708 0.002
Inn 0.708 0.003
Venture 0.708 0.002
Crossroads 0.708 0.003
Militia 0.708 0.002
Nomad Camp 0.708 0.003
Trading Post 0.708 0.002
Duke 0.708 0.002
Wishing Well 0.708 0.002
Bureaucrat 0.708 0.002
Secret Chamber 0.708 0.002
Bank 0.708 0.002
Herbalist 0.708 0.002
Pawn 0.708 0.002
Horn of Plenty 0.708 0.002
Royal Seal 0.708 0.002
Nobles 0.708 0.002
Cartographer 0.709 0.003
Mandarin 0.709 0.003
Counting House 0.709 0.002
Vault 0.709 0.002
Harvest 0.709 0.002
Highway 0.709 0.003
Island 0.709 0.002
Explorer 0.709 0.002
Navigator 0.709 0.002
Saboteur 0.709 0.003
Cellar 0.709 0.002
Coppersmith 0.709 0.002
Shanty Town 0.709 0.002
Pearl Diver 0.709 0.002
Conspirator 0.709 0.002
Cutpurse 0.709 0.002
Feast 0.709 0.002
Moneylender 0.709 0.002
Laboratory 0.710 0.002
Margrave 0.710 0.003
Courtyard 0.710 0.002
Develop 0.710 0.003
Jester 0.710 0.002
Hoard 0.710 0.002
Philosopher's Stone 0.710 0.002
Tunnel 0.710 0.003
Haggler 0.710 0.003
Tribute 0.710 0.002
Baron 0.710 0.002
Harem 0.710 0.002
Fool's Gold 0.710 0.003
Gardens 0.710 0.002
Possession 0.710 0.003
Adventurer 0.710 0.002
Silk Road 0.710 0.003
Oracle 0.710 0.003
Scout 0.710 0.002
Stash 0.711 0.002
Oasis 0.711 0.003
Golem 0.711 0.002
Council Room 0.711 0.002
Stables 0.711 0.003
Moat 0.711 0.002
Noble Brigand 0.711 0.003
Swindler 0.711 0.002
Embargo 0.712 0.002
Caravan 0.712 0.002
Chancellor 0.712 0.002
Treasury 0.713 0.002
Duchess 0.713 0.003
Treasure Map 0.713 0.002
Library 0.713 0.002
Smithy 0.713 0.002
Trader 0.713 0.003
Merchant Ship 0.714 0.002
Lighthouse 0.714 0.002
Cache 0.714 0.003
Jack of All Trades 0.714 0.003
Embassy 0.714 0.003

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Re: The swingiest card ever
« Reply #20 on: June 26, 2017, 04:01:05 pm »
0

Swingy in Dominion context means that it's quite luck dependant -> the less skilled player is more likely to win, right?

If so, I think Chapel is one of the least swingy cards in the game. My vote would go to either Swindler or Jack

I'm not sure that's actually a good measure. At least, it doesn't really fit my definition of "swinginess" at all. That definition is more, "is this card both strong and simple to use?" If so, then yeah obviously it's going to favor the less skilled player. Embassy does not seem luck-dependent to me. Quite the opposite, in fact; it sifts as it draws. But it is a card that has a very simple strategy, so sometimes a novice player employing that strategy will beat the more nuanced deck. Ditto Jack of all Trades.
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Beyond Awesome

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Re: The swingiest card ever
« Reply #21 on: June 26, 2017, 04:02:34 pm »
0

Mountebank is pretty swingy on 5/2. I've lost to much less skilled opponents just because they were able to open MB.
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Donald X.

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Re: The swingiest card ever
« Reply #22 on: June 26, 2017, 04:25:11 pm »
+7

Swingy in Dominion context means that it's quite luck dependant -> the less skilled player is more likely to win, right?

If so, I think Chapel is one of the least swingy cards in the game. My vote would go to either Swindler or Jack

I'm not sure that's actually a good measure. At least, it doesn't really fit my definition of "swinginess" at all. That definition is more, "is this card both strong and simple to use?" If so, then yeah obviously it's going to favor the less skilled player. Embassy does not seem luck-dependent to me. Quite the opposite, in fact; it sifts as it draws. But it is a card that has a very simple strategy, so sometimes a novice player employing that strategy will beat the more nuanced deck. Ditto Jack of all Trades.
I think there are two metrics to consider here. There's "how much does the presence of this card in the game downplay skill" and there's "how much can one draw of this card vary."

The rrenaud thing I love linking to is of course the first metric. Embassy makes the game more about luck by making skill less relevant; I don't need to do anything clever, I can just buy Embassy. The tricky things you can do may be competitive, but they don't just beat up the Embassy guy. In multiplayer it's magnified; I always remember that game from a few years back where three people had turn one Embassy. My buys went Embassy, nothing, Embassy, Province, Province, Province, Province. I did not learn anything about whatever we were playtesting.

Tournament is an example of the second. Maybe you draw it with Province, maybe you don't; it's a big difference. This makes it feel like it's all about luck, even though the card actually favors the better player.
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Re: The swingiest card ever
« Reply #23 on: June 26, 2017, 04:39:56 pm »
0

okay now that I remember Sentry exists it is definitely the absolute swingiest card here because my opponents somehow always manage to repeatedly trash two cards while it consistently collides with my good stuff

Yes, in retrospect I wish I had suggested "You may trash one of them. You may discard one of them. Put the rest back in any order." Maybe it would have been too weak that way, dunno.

Isn't that how it's worded? NO?  Look at that, I've been playing it wrong. Hmmm... Yes, I still buy it a lot.
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Re: The swingiest card ever
« Reply #24 on: June 26, 2017, 05:20:30 pm »
0

Treasure Map.  It's thematic, it's a luckfest.
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