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Author Topic: M101: Less Mafia (game over! Scum won!)  (Read 66931 times)

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O

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Re: M101: Less Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #275 on: June 02, 2017, 02:11:10 am »

2. The quick and stable wagon on me that seems absolutely locked onto only me has somewhat expectedly made me reevaluate how many scum I think are left.
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Awaclus

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Re: M101: Less Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #276 on: June 02, 2017, 02:18:31 am »


[default losing] if MCMC is scum and Haddock wasn't

so the only chance of winning is trusting that MCMC is town.
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Re: M101: Less Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #277 on: June 02, 2017, 02:35:19 am »

Yes, literally after the sentence I suggested the conditional. I'm sorry, I should have repeated the conditional more carefully for those who can't induce context.
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Awaclus

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Re: M101: Less Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #278 on: June 02, 2017, 03:06:03 am »

It's not at all the same conditional. In that conditional, you're also assuming scum!mcmc.
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Awaclus

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Re: M101: Less Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #279 on: June 02, 2017, 03:08:11 am »

Besides, if your conclusion regarding mcmc relies on Haddock's alignment, how can you draw any conclusion at all unless you know what alignment Haddock was?
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O

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Re: M101: Less Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #280 on: June 02, 2017, 03:19:00 am »

Besides, if your conclusion regarding mcmc relies on Haddock's alignment, how can you draw any conclusion at all unless you know what alignment Haddock was?

I assign percent chances to each probability and then factor those into what i think the best option is.

Basically I think if MCMC is scum and haddock isn't we've almost certainly lost, and if MCMC is scum and haddock was too than we're only in bad shape as opposed to certainly going to lose.

Either way I'd be sheeping MCMC regardless what my % opinion on his alignment is unless it was like, 80%. Because if I don't sheep MCMC then a 100% town member is almost certainly getting lynched.

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Re: M101: Less Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #281 on: June 02, 2017, 03:20:05 am »

This doesn't feel like rocket science to me.

MCMC: "O vote for this person or I lynch you because 3 people are hardstuck voting for you".

O: "OK".
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Awaclus

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Re: M101: Less Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #282 on: June 02, 2017, 03:46:32 am »

Besides, if your conclusion regarding mcmc relies on Haddock's alignment, how can you draw any conclusion at all unless you know what alignment Haddock was?

I assign percent chances to each probability and then factor those into what i think the best option is.

Basically I think if MCMC is scum and haddock isn't we've almost certainly lost, and if MCMC is scum and haddock was too than we're only in bad shape as opposed to certainly going to lose.

Either way I'd be sheeping MCMC regardless what my % opinion on his alignment is unless it was like, 80%. Because if I don't sheep MCMC then a 100% town member is almost certainly getting lynched.

This is not at all what you said originally, and by saying this, you can't undo the fact that you did already scumslip.
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Re: M101: Less Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #283 on: June 02, 2017, 04:04:07 am »

Vote Count 2.4

O (3): Awaclus, Robz888, gkrieg13
gkrieg13 (1): Roadrunner7671
Robz888 (2): Twistedarcher, O
Twistedarcher (1): mcmcsalot
Not voting (0):

With 7 alive it takes 4 to lynch. D2 ends Wednesday, June 7 at 6am FT.
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Re: M101: Less Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #284 on: June 02, 2017, 04:16:08 am »

Besides, if your conclusion regarding mcmc relies on Haddock's alignment, how can you draw any conclusion at all unless you know what alignment Haddock was?

I assign percent chances to each probability and then factor those into what i think the best option is.

Basically I think if MCMC is scum and haddock isn't we've almost certainly lost, and if MCMC is scum and haddock was too than we're only in bad shape as opposed to certainly going to lose.

Either way I'd be sheeping MCMC regardless what my % opinion on his alignment is unless it was like, 80%. Because if I don't sheep MCMC then a 100% town member is almost certainly getting lynched.

This is not at all what you said originally, and by saying this, you can't undo the fact that you did already scumslip.

It very much is part of what I said originally.

Everything's a scumslip when you arbitrarily declare me as scum and fit everything to match that conclusion.

Fortunately you're just an nigh-irrelevant constant in this game: I don't expect you to play better or attempt to not scumread me, so I admit i'm going make very little effort in convincing you that is isn't.
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Re: M101: Less Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #285 on: June 02, 2017, 06:50:43 am »

Let's shake things up.
Vote: Robz
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Re: M101: Less Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #286 on: June 02, 2017, 08:24:42 am »

Awaclus there is no scumslip there from O. I hate people making "scumslip" arguments so so much I almost want to lynch you because of it. The problem is it's just how you do things.

I still want to lynch twisted archer.

Let's shake things up.
Vote: Robz
Thing shaken, now gimmie reasons. Also why do you think twistedarcher is town?
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Awaclus

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Re: M101: Less Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #287 on: June 02, 2017, 08:35:24 am »

Awaclus there is no scumslip there from O. I hate people making "scumslip" arguments so so much I almost want to lynch you because of it.

You can feel free to hate it but this is still the only valid way of getting a better than full random chance to lynch scum.
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Awaclus

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Re: M101: Less Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #288 on: June 02, 2017, 08:38:59 am »

Everything's a scumslip when you arbitrarily declare me as scum and fit everything to match that conclusion.

You can try to twist things whatever way you want, but it doesn't change the fact that you have more information than town would have in your position, which you revealed by taking it for granted that Haddock was town.
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mcmcsalot

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Re: M101: Less Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #289 on: June 02, 2017, 09:16:55 am »

Okay for once I can argue with you about this without being scum therefor validating everything you say like in the past. I am also operating under the assumption that haddock was in fact scum.

If you can point out where O claimed to 100% know haddock was scum then I will go along with you. I think you are taking phrasing and manipulating it to "prove" your read. Which again I have to give you some credit for being right in the past, however I also think you have lost many times employing this strategy.
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mcmcsalot

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Re: M101: Less Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #290 on: June 02, 2017, 09:26:49 am »

Well quite simply MCMC has that power because three people are voting for me and won't change their opinions. So either MCMC will lynch me or he could pmuch dictate who else he wants to lynch and I'll go along with it.

I don't think MCMC is the most townie person here but from my perspective I think we've come close to default losing if MCMC is scum and Haddock wasn't. I just don't see the turnaround if MCMC + 1 other is scum, so the only chance of winning is trusting that MCMC is town.

Well tbh even if we weren't close to default losing I'd still follow any of MCMC's plans instead of getting lynched myself.

What I have gathered is you believe the underlined portion of this quote is somehow indicative that O is aware of haddocks alignment and that that alignment is scum. But he is in fact saying "if mcmc is scum and haddock is not" town is close to losing. So he isn't operating under that assumption. I don't see how that speaks to O knowing haddocks alignment.
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Robz888

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Re: M101: Less Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #291 on: June 02, 2017, 11:48:54 am »

I'm surprised people aren't trying harder to lynch me. I feel like town!gkrieg would be all over me by now.

Vote: Gkrieg
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Re: M101: Less Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #292 on: June 02, 2017, 11:56:27 am »

I'm surprised people aren't trying harder to lynch me. I feel like town!gkrieg would be all over me by now.

Vote: Gkrieg

Why would I want to lynch you?  I don't understand this at all.
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Twistedarcher

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Re: M101: Less Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #293 on: June 02, 2017, 12:01:27 pm »

I mean awaclus, I'm assuming haddock was town, does that make me scum too?
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Awaclus

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Re: M101: Less Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #294 on: June 02, 2017, 12:48:42 pm »

If you can point out where O claimed to 100% know haddock was scum then I will go along with you. I think you are taking phrasing and manipulating it to "prove" your read.

I guess that's where the misunderstanding stems from. O didn't claim to know Haddock was scum, he claimed to know Haddock was town.

What I have gathered is you believe the underlined portion of this quote is somehow indicative that O is aware of haddocks alignment and that that alignment is scum. But he is in fact saying "if mcmc is scum and haddock is not" town is close to losing. So he isn't operating under that assumption. I don't see how that speaks to O knowing haddocks alignment.

He isn't operating under that assumption in that sentence. He is operating under the assumption that you're town and Haddock is also town in the next. I don't know how I can make this any more clear, but let's try anyway:

There are three possibilities here:

1) mcmc is scum and Haddock is not -> town loses for sure t. O
3) mcmc is town -> we should assume mcmc is town t. O
2) mcmc is scum and Haddock is also scum -> O didn't even consider that this could possibly be the case, because he knows Haddock can't be scum.
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Awaclus

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Re: M101: Less Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #295 on: June 02, 2017, 12:50:21 pm »

I mean awaclus, I'm assuming haddock was town, does that make me scum too?

Well, I'm also assuming that Haddock was town, but I'm at least considering the possibility that he wasn't, and you're probably considering it as well. O isn't, and that's why he's scum.
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Awaclus

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Re: M101: Less Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #296 on: June 02, 2017, 12:51:38 pm »

Although from O's scumslip, we can conclude that Haddock was, indeed, town.
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mcmcsalot

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Re: M101: Less Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #297 on: June 02, 2017, 01:20:37 pm »

Although from O's scumslip, we can conclude that Haddock was, indeed, town.
You are taking the fact that O didn't lay out every possibility as an indication that he has more information. Why make that assumption? He never said town is in a bad shape if mcmc is scum because haddock was town. He said if, and laid out one singular scenario. He said:

I don't think MCMC is the most townie person here but from my perspective I think we've come close to default losing if MCMC is scum and Haddock wasn't. I just don't see the turnaround if MCMC + 1 other is scum, so the only chance of winning is trusting that MCMC is town.

The bolded statement is a scenario saying if haddock was town and mcmc+someone else is scum town is in bad shape.

Ohhhhh wait a minute. You think because he then says "the only chance of winning is trusting mcmc is town" that's saying the only two scenarios are A) mcmc scum/haddock town we lose, and B)mcmc town/haddock anything, so we should treat mcmc as town. So you are saying he left out mcmc and haddock are both scum.

I see what you are getting at it's just trivial and you are wrong. O didn't assume haddock was town because he says that if mcmc is town we should treat mcmc as town. He simply making the point as to why he is assuming I am town.

You are making it appear that O didn't acknowledge the possibility haddock was scum but he did. It's just that in either scenario where I am town and haddock is town or scum, he would trust me. He is then ruling out the scenario where haddock is town and I am scum because of his opinion town has basically lost if that is the case.
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Re: M101: Less Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #298 on: June 02, 2017, 01:26:43 pm »

I have no clue what this means for your alignment awaclus but you are wrong about what O's statements indicate. He does give a scenario where haddock is scum. You are correct he doesn't mention the scenario where haddock and I are both scum, which would perhaps indicate he knows that I am town but he included a scenario where I was scum as well. You are taking the fact that he didn't lay out every single scenario and then trying to manipulate what he said in a way to make the statements he did make prove your reads.
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Awaclus

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Re: M101: Less Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #299 on: June 02, 2017, 01:46:17 pm »

I have no clue what this means for your alignment awaclus but you are wrong about what O's statements indicate. He does give a scenario where haddock is scum. You are correct he doesn't mention the scenario where haddock and I are both scum, which would perhaps indicate he knows that I am town but he included a scenario where I was scum as well. You are taking the fact that he didn't lay out every single scenario and then trying to manipulate what he said in a way to make the statements he did make prove your reads.

I'm not manipulating anything. You are taking the one scenario where O pretended to not know Haddock's alignment as proof that O really doesn't know Haddock's alignment, but that's not how it works. 90-93% of the time, scum posts lies, so if you only look at the big picture, you'll conclude that everyone is town but that conclusion is based on the lies scum tells you. You have to focus on the details that are a little off, because that's the part that's actual truth.

O's post was going well until halfway through he forgot that Haddock could be scum. If you focus on part 1 of that sentence, sure, O looks super towny and all, but if you even consider the latter part for a while, there's no explanation for why that would come from town.
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