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Author Topic: M101: Less Mafia (game over! Scum won!)  (Read 66853 times)

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Twistedarcher

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Re: M101: Less Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #100 on: May 25, 2017, 11:19:22 am »

Okay, I had a plan!

Each person names one person to lynch. We pick a random player, and then whomever that player names get lynched. Scum either have to name a town player, which can give us help in identifying pairs, or name their partner, increasing the odds of a scum lynch d1.
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Twistedarcher

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Re: M101: Less Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #101 on: May 25, 2017, 11:36:25 am »

Nyeehhhhh.  Are people seriously wanting an RR lynch? 
Not a fan, it's such an easy thing and the usual benefit (info from his flip - RR's flip is usually full of info) doesn't exist here.

Partner much?

Is this tongue in cheek, or do you actually think there's a possibility of a haddock-rr partnership? Haddocks post makes it seem too..obvious.
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Twistedarcher

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Re: M101: Less Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #102 on: May 25, 2017, 11:37:23 am »

I think the best way to play this game is not to traditionally scumhunt, but to eliminate possible scum pairs. Then we can see what does and doesn't make sense future days.
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mcmcsalot

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Re: M101: Less Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #103 on: May 25, 2017, 11:41:42 am »

I think there is actually a possibility. I also think you could be a partner to either one. I very strongly dislike your plan.

We don't get to know flips so your name a person to lynch means scum doesn't have to name their partner at all, I get that you think then we know everyone can't be partners with the person they named but then scum could decide I'll name my partner and then it's a 1 in 8 chance we hit scum unless town also guesses right which is worse than my current 2 in 7 chance. Also your plan removes wagon analysis which we already pointed out is one thing we can do after a couple days.
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Wins: M19, M21, M23, M24, M26, M39, M91, M94, M102, M104, M107, M114, M115
Losses: M20, M22, M25, M27, M30, M31, M35, M38, M40, M42, M46, M60, M90, M93, M96, M98, M100, M101, M106, M111, M113
Winrate: 38.2%(13/34) 29.6%(8/27), 71.4%(5/7)

gkrieg13

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Re: M101: Less Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #104 on: May 25, 2017, 11:45:34 am »

I think there is actually a possibility. I also think you could be a partner to either one. I very strongly dislike your plan.

We don't get to know flips so your name a person to lynch means scum doesn't have to name their partner at all, I get that you think then we know everyone can't be partners with the person they named but then scum could decide I'll name my partner and then it's a 1 in 8 chance we hit scum unless town also guesses right which is worse than my current 2 in 7 chance. Also your plan removes wagon analysis which we already pointed out is one thing we can do after a couple days.

Also we will have no idea if we actually hit scum even if town guesses scum randomly. The lack of flips means that you have to guess when people die if they were town or scum.
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Twistedarcher

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Re: M101: Less Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #105 on: May 25, 2017, 01:48:05 pm »

I think there is actually a possibility. I also think you could be a partner to either one. I very strongly dislike your plan.

We don't get to know flips so your name a person to lynch means scum doesn't have to name their partner at all, I get that you think then we know everyone can't be partners with the person they named but then scum could decide I'll name my partner and then it's a 1 in 8 chance we hit scum unless town also guesses right which is worse than my current 2 in 7 chance. Also your plan removes wagon analysis which we already pointed out is one thing we can do after a couple days.

Don't understand this point. It's chance of scum bussing because of pressure + chance of town guessing randomly vs. chance of town guessing randomly. You're saying the second is higher than the first but how could that be true? I think scum are much more likely to bus pressured by this plan than when not pressured by this plan.
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mcmcsalot

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Re: M101: Less Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #106 on: May 25, 2017, 01:57:14 pm »

First, Why do you insist the only option other than making some kind of plan is lynching randomly?

Second you are taking be best scenario possible. You are saying scum has pressure to bus and adding that to the chance of town guessing randomly. If both scum put townies you are locking us in to a 2/8 chance we hit town + the chance that the 6 town guesses correctly. Which is worse, if you say scum busses yes it's better but we can't know what scums going to do. Your trying to turn the game 100% into a math problem and role a probability die. How about we scumhunt.
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Wins: M19, M21, M23, M24, M26, M39, M91, M94, M102, M104, M107, M114, M115
Losses: M20, M22, M25, M27, M30, M31, M35, M38, M40, M42, M46, M60, M90, M93, M96, M98, M100, M101, M106, M111, M113
Winrate: 38.2%(13/34) 29.6%(8/27), 71.4%(5/7)

mcmcsalot

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Re: M101: Less Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #107 on: May 25, 2017, 02:13:11 pm »

For what it's worth I feel like ta's plan is town concocted, just bad.
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Wins: M19, M21, M23, M24, M26, M39, M91, M94, M102, M104, M107, M114, M115
Losses: M20, M22, M25, M27, M30, M31, M35, M38, M40, M42, M46, M60, M90, M93, M96, M98, M100, M101, M106, M111, M113
Winrate: 38.2%(13/34) 29.6%(8/27), 71.4%(5/7)

Robz888

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Re: M101: Less Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #108 on: May 25, 2017, 03:18:34 pm »

For what it's worth I feel like ta's plan is town concocted, just bad.

Me too. Though I'm less sure it's bad.
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I have been forced to accept that lackluster play is a town tell for you.

O

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Re: M101: Less Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #109 on: May 25, 2017, 09:14:33 pm »

Haddock is the most scummy. We should definitely lynch either him or Robz.
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Roadrunner7671

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Re: M101: Less Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #110 on: May 25, 2017, 09:18:19 pm »

Haddock is buddying me or something, so I'd be cool with starting a wagon on him.
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Oh God someone delete this before Roadrunner sees it.

mcmcsalot

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Re: M101: Less Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #111 on: May 25, 2017, 10:31:35 pm »

Haddock is the most scummy. We should definitely lynch either him or Robz.
I could lynch haddock
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Wins: M19, M21, M23, M24, M26, M39, M91, M94, M102, M104, M107, M114, M115
Losses: M20, M22, M25, M27, M30, M31, M35, M38, M40, M42, M46, M60, M90, M93, M96, M98, M100, M101, M106, M111, M113
Winrate: 38.2%(13/34) 29.6%(8/27), 71.4%(5/7)

Haddock

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Re: M101: Less Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #112 on: May 26, 2017, 07:06:08 am »

Heyo, sorry, been super busy.

I don't get why I'm suddenly scummy, but whatever.
I like the interaction between O and Robz.  O comes off really towny, Robz a little bit so.

Haddock are you going to answer these questions?

Nyeehhhhh.  Are people seriously wanting an RR lynch? 
Not a fan, it's such an easy thing and the usual benefit (info from his flip - RR's flip is usually full of info) doesn't exist here.

Why easy thing bad?

Nyeehhhhh.  Are people seriously wanting an RR lynch? 
Not a fan, it's such an easy thing and the usual benefit (info from his flip - RR's flip is usually full of info) doesn't exist here.

Also what info do we normally get from a roadrunner lynch that we don't get here?
Well, yes, when I eventually returned.

"Why easy thing bad?".  Well.  Easy lynches are often mislynches, for one.  But that's not the best argument.  In truth, I phrased it poorly.  I'm just referring to the fact that RR gets lynched D1 all the time, and it's so often just a dumb, dumb, lynch. 

What info won't we get?  We won't get a flip.  That's obvious, right?  I don't understand the question.
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The best reason to lynch Haddock is the meltdown we get to witness on the wagon runup. I mean, we should totally wagon him every day just for the lulz.

M Town Wins-Losses (6-2, 75%): 71, 72, 76, 81, 83, 87 - 79, 82.  M Scum Wins-Losses (2-1, 67%): 80, 101 - 70.
RMM Town Wins-Losses (3-1, 75%): 42, 47, 49 - 31.  RMM Scum Wins-Losses (3-3, 50%): 33, 37, 43 - 29, 32, 35.
Modded: M75, M84, RMM38.     Mislynched (M-RMM): None - 42.     Correctly lynched (M-RMM): 101 - 33, 33, 35.       MVPs: RMM37, M87

Haddock

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Re: M101: Less Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #113 on: May 26, 2017, 07:07:14 am »

TA pretty much null.  I like vote: gkrieg.
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The best reason to lynch Haddock is the meltdown we get to witness on the wagon runup. I mean, we should totally wagon him every day just for the lulz.

M Town Wins-Losses (6-2, 75%): 71, 72, 76, 81, 83, 87 - 79, 82.  M Scum Wins-Losses (2-1, 67%): 80, 101 - 70.
RMM Town Wins-Losses (3-1, 75%): 42, 47, 49 - 31.  RMM Scum Wins-Losses (3-3, 50%): 33, 37, 43 - 29, 32, 35.
Modded: M75, M84, RMM38.     Mislynched (M-RMM): None - 42.     Correctly lynched (M-RMM): 101 - 33, 33, 35.       MVPs: RMM37, M87

LaLight

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Re: M101: Less Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #114 on: May 26, 2017, 07:08:39 am »

Vote Count 1.2

gkrieg13 (2): Awaclus, Haddock
Haddock (1): Roadrunner7671
Roadrunner7671 (3): mcmcsalot, Robz888, gkrieg13
Robz888 (1): O
Not voting (1): Twistedarcher

With 8 alive it takes 5 to lynch. Day 1 ends Saturday, 3rd of June at 1am FT.
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Awaclus

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Re: M101: Less Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #115 on: May 26, 2017, 07:50:37 am »

Heyo, sorry, been super busy.

I don't get why I'm suddenly scummy, but whatever.

Why are you not suddenly scummy?
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Haddock

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Re: M101: Less Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #116 on: May 26, 2017, 07:54:02 am »

Heyo, sorry, been super busy.

I don't get why I'm suddenly scummy, but whatever.

Why are you not suddenly scummy?
Oh, hi Awaclus.  Glad you haven't changed.
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The best reason to lynch Haddock is the meltdown we get to witness on the wagon runup. I mean, we should totally wagon him every day just for the lulz.

M Town Wins-Losses (6-2, 75%): 71, 72, 76, 81, 83, 87 - 79, 82.  M Scum Wins-Losses (2-1, 67%): 80, 101 - 70.
RMM Town Wins-Losses (3-1, 75%): 42, 47, 49 - 31.  RMM Scum Wins-Losses (3-3, 50%): 33, 37, 43 - 29, 32, 35.
Modded: M75, M84, RMM38.     Mislynched (M-RMM): None - 42.     Correctly lynched (M-RMM): 101 - 33, 33, 35.       MVPs: RMM37, M87

Awaclus

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Re: M101: Less Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #117 on: May 26, 2017, 08:30:28 am »

Heyo, sorry, been super busy.

I don't get why I'm suddenly scummy, but whatever.

Why are you not suddenly scummy?
Oh, hi Awaclus.  Glad you haven't changed.

Hi. But you didn't answer the question.
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mcmcsalot

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Re: M101: Less Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #118 on: May 26, 2017, 08:53:08 am »

Heyo, sorry, been super busy.

I don't get why I'm suddenly scummy, but whatever.
I like the interaction between O and Robz.  O comes off really towny, Robz a little bit so.

Haddock are you going to answer these questions?

Nyeehhhhh.  Are people seriously wanting an RR lynch? 
Not a fan, it's such an easy thing and the usual benefit (info from his flip - RR's flip is usually full of info) doesn't exist here.

Why easy thing bad?

Nyeehhhhh.  Are people seriously wanting an RR lynch? 
Not a fan, it's such an easy thing and the usual benefit (info from his flip - RR's flip is usually full of info) doesn't exist here.

Also what info do we normally get from a roadrunner lynch that we don't get here?
Well, yes, when I eventually returned.

"Why easy thing bad?".  Well.  Easy lynches are often mislynches, for one.  But that's not the best argument.  In truth, I phrased it poorly.  I'm just referring to the fact that RR gets lynched D1 all the time, and it's so often just a dumb, dumb, lynch. 

What info won't we get?  We won't get a flip.  That's obvious, right?  I don't understand the question.
But we all know we don't get flips, you we don't get flips on anyone's lynch so why is roadrunner's lynch specifically usually full of infor that doesn't exist here.

It sounds like roadrunner was at l-2 and you said hey let's not do that while providing two reasons that aren't really reasons at all.

vote: haddock
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Wins: M19, M21, M23, M24, M26, M39, M91, M94, M102, M104, M107, M114, M115
Losses: M20, M22, M25, M27, M30, M31, M35, M38, M40, M42, M46, M60, M90, M93, M96, M98, M100, M101, M106, M111, M113
Winrate: 38.2%(13/34) 29.6%(8/27), 71.4%(5/7)

gkrieg13

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Re: M101: Less Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #119 on: May 26, 2017, 09:33:00 am »

TA pretty much null.  I like vote: gkrieg.

Any reason for this combination of reads?
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Robz888

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Re: M101: Less Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #120 on: May 26, 2017, 09:36:02 am »

I could lynch Haddock.
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I have been forced to accept that lackluster play is a town tell for you.

Awaclus

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Re: M101: Less Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #121 on: May 26, 2017, 09:41:03 am »

TA pretty much null.  I like vote: gkrieg.

Any reason for this combination of reads?

Any reason for why he shouldn't have that combination of reads?
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gkrieg13

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Re: M101: Less Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #122 on: May 26, 2017, 09:50:55 am »

TA pretty much null.  I like vote: gkrieg.

Any reason for this combination of reads?

Any reason for why he shouldn't have that combination of reads?

Just seems like a weird combination. Like why express those reads, but not others?
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Twistedarcher

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Re: M101: Less Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #123 on: May 26, 2017, 12:07:59 pm »

Nyeehhhhh.  Are people seriously wanting an RR lynch? 
Not a fan, it's such an easy thing and the usual benefit (info from his flip - RR's flip is usually full of info) doesn't exist here.

Ok, so this is a bit of a weird post, since RR had posted literally nothing of value up to this point. But I suppose it's a meta-post, and not a this game post. Haddock, I agree there's not really a reason to lynch RR -- but do you think there's a reason to not lynch him?
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Twistedarcher

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Re: M101: Less Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #124 on: May 26, 2017, 12:09:24 pm »

@Mcmc, I disagree that we should use wagon analysis as our key tool this game, since that relies so heavily on flips. Interactions and possible partnerships are where I'm looking. But I also don't want to distract the conversation with this debate, so I'll scumhunt how I want and you can scumhunt how you want :) since my plan pretty clearly isn't happening at this point
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