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[Roadrunner7671]

How about AtE? That works sonetimes. Don't lynch me guys I'm just a kid If you lynch me, I'll do my bit about how no one can read me like I always do.

[Roadrunner7671]

Someone help I'm flailing and I can't stop

[Roadrunner7671]

It's been 16 minutes! I'm exciter either way honestly. Either I get gloating privileges during twilight or I stay alive.

However, whenever I think it'll be fun to gloat it's always sad because I'm dead.

[Roadrunner7671]

It's actually been 18 minutes. And yes, I know that this is clutter but if the day's about to end, who cares? Are you gonna call me scummy for doing this?

[sudgy]

Close enough.  Vote: RoadRunner

[Roadrunner7671]

I was obv!Town

[Roadrunner7671]

So scum is for sure on wagon, blah blah blah, learn how to read me, blah blah blah, how could this happen etc.

[Roadrunner7671]

I guess now I might sogn up for another game

[Robz888]

Thread locked.

[Robz888]

Vote Count 7.Final

O (2): Awaclus, RoadRunner7671
sudgy (1): Dylan32
RoadRunner7671 (4): SpaceAnemone, Galzria, O, sudgy

With 7 alive it took 4 to lynch.

[Robz888]

I think IG, hydrad, Eevee, and Robz are the unconfirmable claims (that is, can't confirm they are in the game or not).

How do I confirm my claim?

Lynch.

RoadRunner7671, the Vanilla Townie, has been lynched.

Night 7 begins now. All players must check-in with me by posting in their QTs. Actions are due within 48 hours. Day 8 will begin no later than Wednesday, July 5, at 1:00 PM Forum Time, though it could begin earlier.

[Robz888]

I really don't like that faust just claimed and then disappeared. We need cross examination!

He's still online though.

Maybe he's waiting for mafiascum wiki to reload again so he can perfect his fake claim.

+1

as it happens, I had the JK9++ wiki page open before it went down! should I put the relevant info in here?

NO

Awaclus, the Vanilla Townie, has been killed.

DAY 8 START!

THREAD UNLOCKED.

[Robz888]

Vote Count 8.1

Not Voting (5): O, Galzria, SpaceAnemone, Dylan32, sudgy

With 5 alive it takes 3 to lynch. Day 8 ends Tuesday, July 11, at 11:00 AM Forum Time.

[Dylan32]

Hmmm. Awaclus instead of Galz. Some thoughts.

1) Pending target claim, this probably either locks in strongman/RB (more likely) or scum!galz.

2) scum!O would for sure have to kill Awaclus before lylo. Doing so the night before would obviously really look bad. Doing so a night earlier would probably be better.

3) The only reason I can think of for scum other than O to kill Awaclus tonight given his game long tunnel would be to frame O.  As mentioned in 2, killing him tomorrow would probably work better for that though.

4) I was about to make this point about wagon analysis, but apparently I'm the only living person that wasn't on that wagon. So I guess I'll just ask you all, do you trust that a late EoD mislynch wagon that came almost out of nowhere was 100% town driven?

5) Vote: O

[sudgy]

4) I was about to make this point about wagon analysis, but apparently I'm the only living person that wasn't on that wagon. So I guess I'll just ask you all, do you trust that a late EoD mislynch wagon that came almost out of nowhere was 100% town driven?

Well, when RR was suddenly looking pretty scummy, I wouldn't be surprised if it was town driven.  Vote: Dylan still because of the reasons said yesterday.

Galzria, what was your target?

[SpaceAnemone]

Really sorry about my bad read yesterday! RIP, RR!

@Dylan, I think it was certainly majority town-driven because I did most of the driving :-( It's one of the perils of being still invested in the game when fatigue sets in with other players.

@Galz, seconding the desire to know your target and reasoning for the night.

On the bright side, at least we don't have to worry any more about that niggling little chance that Awaclus wasn't a true IC somehow.

[Dylan32]

4) I was about to make this point about wagon analysis, but apparently I'm the only living person that wasn't on that wagon. So I guess I'll just ask you all, do you trust that a late EoD mislynch wagon that came almost out of nowhere was 100% town driven?

Well, when RR was suddenly looking pretty scummy, I wouldn't be surprised if it was town driven.  Vote: Dylan still because of the reasons said yesterday.

Galzria, what was your target?

What reasons were given that I didn't already answer? Space admitted that their read on me was almost entirely gut based.

And as I was reading what happened, I didn't think RR was scummy. That was very typical RR. That's not to say I thought he played that very well, but he is way more likely to overestimate the towncred he would get from something like that as town than as scum. No way would he bank his entire defense on that as scum. I realize it's easy to say now with hindsight, but if I had been around, I would have said it then too. That was just bad.

@Space, yeah unfortunately my confidence in my town read on you did take a hit because of it.

[Galzria]

Whelp, that confirms that.

I jailed Awaclus last night. Dylan hit the reasons on the nose more or less. Scum had to kill him and the opportunities to do so are dwindling. N6 it was worth the gamble of trying to jail my biggest scum read (As per faust's suggestion), but now I needed information. Jailing Awaclus was the most likely way to get it.

[O]

Scums playing a lot of WIFOM these days...

I want to lynch Dylan and Sudgy.

My guess is Scum is going to leave Galzria alive and try and play the WIFOM there. If we do lynch me today yall need to really not take the bait and lynch Galzria after that.

I think there's a legitimate need to argue against why dylan isn't obv!town for being off the lynch:

1. Roadrunner was being incredibly obtuse and scummy.
2. Dylan's vote being on Sudgy felt mostly like a survivalist vote, and he wasn't around during deadline. We have little evidence that Dylan wouldn't have voted for RR
3. It would be scummier to not push a lynch through than to lynch town putting us at a 6 people and setting us up for a 4 person MYLO is pretty much exactly what scum prefers. It's much, much better than lynching town when there's rules putting standoff scenarios in favor of scum.


Now to defend myself:

1. Awaclus's position as A. Permanently voting for me and B. Confirmed Town meant both that his death was inevitable and that his death has very little realistic bearing on my alignment. Scum were always going to kill him, as kind of stated before: If I'm scum, I can't have him around at LYLO, if I'm not scum, Scum will be removing confirmed!town and framing me.

Now I do agree killing Galzria still generally would have made more sense today, at least if scum are under the same opinion of me that Galzria should be default accepted as town. But yesterday the consensus wasn't there at all that Galzria was town. Even still frankly if I were in Scums position this game (notably different than "If I were scum" which still has Awaclus default voting for me). I would have killed Galzria last night if I didn't kill him two nights ago.

2. From (3) above, my existence during deadline could be construed as some fealty to the integrity of the game, but I'd have no problems playing the deadline dance if I were scum (I might have even done it in the past not sure). And while my vote on LaLight could be construed as self preservation of scum, as if I don't hammer LL I'm probably getting lynched after LL flips scum, there's no similar argument for Roadrunner last night. There's just not a good reason for me as scum to facilitate a lynch at deadline.


It's for similar reasons that I've become increasingly more town-reading of Space. Space even more than me benefits immensely from a NL yesterday, since Space doesn't have default reasons to think she's at risk of a lynch.

TLDR Lynch Preference = Dylan + Sudgy > Space > Galzria. I'd say I'd self-lynch before Galzria because I think Galzria is more likely to survive LYLO as town than me, but that's a bit paradoxical because lynch preference order is assuming they're able to be lynched today in the first place.   

[Galzria]

Mobile atm - can somebody post all known/stated draft positions and choices?

[Galzria]

Mobile atm - can somebody post all known/stated draft positions and choices?

Who was claimed draft #2?

[SpaceAnemone]

Two possibilities:

1) Galz is scum and killed Awaclus. Let's explore that some more. He could be a scum JK who got his PR exactly as he said he did. He could also have picked up something else from slot 11, but it has to be slot 11, because O failed to get anything from that slot, and at most one of them is lying. The other possible PRs that could have come from there and still allowed faust to be blocked N1 are RB, or also JOAT, which would have allowed Galz a single RB shot. If that's the case, what went on with the kills on N2 that left Galz confident enough to claim that he'd blocked one? Here's Galz's claim when he made it; faust's response is not that many posts later.

2) We have an RB, a JOAT, or a strongman, and that person got that PR from slot 3, 5, or 8 respectively, and then fakeclaimed VT and another slot. I just went back to check the rules, and it says that a scum can't perform their faction kill and use a PR in the same night unless they're the last of their faction, but that must be the situation we're in now.. and also RB trumps JK, so Galz could have been RBd rather than strongmanned. It probably doesn't make a lot of difference at this point, anyway! Whichever role it was, we're looking for someone who was able to make a convincing fake-claim over the slot they took, because they definitely can't be a goon. The obvious person in that sort of claiming position is O, since he claimed slot 11 a long time after Galz did, and is conveniently placed late in the draft order.

PPE 2 because I started this post ages ago. @Galz, I'll get you that list in a moment :-)

[SpaceAnemone]

Draft order with slot and role claims, updated with flips:

#1 faust, 2-shot vig (slot 1) Claimed vig at #2678
#2 ?
#3 Jimmmmm, original Mason (slot 6)
#4 mcmc, Hammer Hero (slot 9)
#5 LL, Mafia Godfather-er (presumably slot 7)
#6 e, SK, 1-Shot Bus Driver (claims slot 13; definitely can't have been 6)
#7 sudgy, VT (went for slot 6)
#8 Dylan, VT (went for slot 13)
#9 Eevee, was VT, became Mason. (went for slot 6)
#10 Awaclus, VT
#11 iguana, Mafia Goon (went for slot 13)
#12 ashersky, Mafia Goon (claimed slot 4?).
#13 TWM, Hider (Slot 10)
#14 JR, VT
#15 PPS, restless sheeper (slot 2)
#16 ?
#17 Jake, Tracker (slot 12)
#18 Space, VT (went for slot 12)
#19 RR, VT (went for slot 13)
#20 Galz, Jailkeeper (slot 11)
#21 O, VT (went for slot 11)
#22 ?
#23 ?

Names missing from the list are Calamitas, gkreig, Cuzz and Andrew.

[Galzria]

 What are the chances our Strongman (or more likely RB?) was Slot 2, but claimed a lower spot of their VT teammate?

Like... If Calamitas was #11, Iguana was #7 and our remaining scum was #2?

For example, Iguana could've taken UB at #7 and failed - making it a safe claim for Sudgy. Sudgy, having taken that claim would've moved Iguana into Calamitas' spot when time to claim.

Sorry - beach day drunk. AMA. Just a thought I had. Don't know if it works though

[Dylan32]

Scums playing a lot of WIFOM these days...

I want to lynch Dylan and Sudgy.

My guess is Scum is going to leave Galzria alive and try and play the WIFOM there. If we do lynch me today yall need to really not take the bait and lynch Galzria after that.

I think there's a legitimate need to argue against why dylan isn't obv!town for being off the lynch:

1. Roadrunner was being incredibly obtuse and scummy.
2. Dylan's vote being on Sudgy felt mostly like a survivalist vote, and he wasn't around during deadline. We have little evidence that Dylan wouldn't have voted for RR
3. It would be scummier to not push a lynch through than to lynch town putting us at a 6 people and setting us up for a 4 person MYLO is pretty much exactly what scum prefers. It's much, much better than lynching town when there's rules putting standoff scenarios in favor of scum.


Now to defend myself:

1. Awaclus's position as A. Permanently voting for me and B. Confirmed Town meant both that his death was inevitable and that his death has very little realistic bearing on my alignment. Scum were always going to kill him, as kind of stated before: If I'm scum, I can't have him around at LYLO, if I'm not scum, Scum will be removing confirmed!town and framing me.

Now I do agree killing Galzria still generally would have made more sense today, at least if scum are under the same opinion of me that Galzria should be default accepted as town. But yesterday the consensus wasn't there at all that Galzria was town. Even still frankly if I were in Scums position this game (notably different than "If I were scum" which still has Awaclus default voting for me). I would have killed Galzria last night if I didn't kill him two nights ago.

2. From (3) above, my existence during deadline could be construed as some fealty to the integrity of the game, but I'd have no problems playing the deadline dance if I were scum (I might have even done it in the past not sure). And while my vote on LaLight could be construed as self preservation of scum, as if I don't hammer LL I'm probably getting lynched after LL flips scum, there's no similar argument for Roadrunner last night. There's just not a good reason for me as scum to facilitate a lynch at deadline.


It's for similar reasons that I've become increasingly more town-reading of Space. Space even more than me benefits immensely from a NL yesterday, since Space doesn't have default reasons to think she's at risk of a lynch.

TLDR Lynch Preference = Dylan + Sudgy > Space > Galzria. I'd say I'd self-lynch before Galzria because I think Galzria is more likely to survive LYLO as town than me, but that's a bit paradoxical because lynch preference order is assuming they're able to be lynched today in the first place.

To your 3 points about me:
1) I never said RR wasn't being obtuse and behaving in a way that is generally seen as scummy, and so having never played with him, if you are town, I don't fault you for being on that lynch. I would have in previous games with him based on that, but not generally anymore.

2) I have scum read sudgy for almost the entire game. You can't say my vote on him was survivalist. I dare you to read several town!RR games and tell me that I wouldn't at least be somewhat likely to see similarities between that and this town!rr...

3) I would have joined on RR IFF it was literally the only option to no lynch. I would have self hammered if need be to avoid no lynch and prove that my reads were honest going into the last day or two rather than give scum that bonus.

To one of your defense points:
1) My thinking is that given Awaclus, the ideal final 3 for scum would be you, Awaclus, and scum. Unless Awaclus turned around and was baiting scum by faking a scum read on you in order to get that exact group, it's a pretty safe bet Awaclus would go for you barring something big. So scum would have a pretty big incentive to not kill you two. As you said though, you 100% couldn't have him around. There's a pretty good reason why scum would want him around if you didn't get lynched.

2) You could just as easily help facilitate the lynch specifically to get the town cred for helping a lynch go through for the exact argument you seem to have had ready to bring up.