Topic: New councilroom feature: historical level/#games graphs (Read 11199 times)

rrenaud · « **on:** February 11, 2012, 12:12:48 am »

Another nice contribution from tlstyer.

http://councilroom.com/player?player=tlstyer

jonts26 · « **Reply #1 on:** February 11, 2012, 02:01:26 am »

These graphs are super interesting. I noticed browsing the profiles of a lot of the top players that there seems to be a general trend of somewhat stagnant level and then a quick jump of 5 or so levels in a short time period followed by another long stagnant period.

I wonder if this is due to something just clicking, elevating the overall play level. I think it seems to suggest that, but really, I'm not sure I can remember specific things at these critical points which boosted my game. I mostly just remember getting really hot and riding it out.

Kirian · « **Reply #2 on:** February 11, 2012, 03:48:47 am »

Hrm, this suggests that CR.com can pull levels from Iso.

Is it possible to have that level over in the name panels on the forums?

theory · « **Reply #3 on:** February 11, 2012, 04:54:56 am »

How is my overall # of games going down?

Also, the record by opponent stuff is starting to really lag out the page ... that has to go on a different page than the main player page.

Given that you have this data, it should be trivial to also have a "All-time high" displayed on your page.

Geronimoo · « **Reply #4 on:** February 11, 2012, 04:59:04 am »

those !alchemy games?

theory · « **Reply #5 on:** February 11, 2012, 05:41:34 am »

Quote from: Geronimoo on February 11, 2012, 04:59:04 am

those !alchemy games?

That would be a sudden drop rather than a gradual one, unless that was just during the period when isotropic was phasing out old games.

def · « **Reply #6 on:** February 11, 2012, 05:48:58 am »

It probably is a sudden drop, though it doesn't look like it. Compare it to other players; there is always a linear segment at this exact time period.
That happens when you connect dots with a discrete x-axis.
So, what happened in these, maybe 10, days that councilroom doesn't seem to get data from?

Davio · « **Reply #7 on:** February 11, 2012, 06:56:09 am »

Looking at my graph, it would seem that I have hit my ceiling (lvl 36).
I'm OK with being in the top 1% worldwide though, since that is a pretty good accomplishment imo.

And if I look at the players above me, those are all guys I have the utmost respect and deepest fear for.

At least my #Games graph is pretty linear.

chwhite · « **Reply #8 on:** February 11, 2012, 03:10:40 pm »

Quote from: jonts26 on February 11, 2012, 02:01:26 am

These graphs are super interesting. I noticed browsing the profiles of a lot of the top players that there seems to be a general trend of somewhat stagnant level and then a quick jump of 5 or so levels in a short time period followed by another long stagnant period.

I wonder if this is due to something just clicking, elevating the overall play level. I think it seems to suggest that, but really, I'm not sure I can remember specific things at these critical points which boosted my game. I mostly just remember getting really hot and riding it out.

Looking at my graph, there appear to be two big jumps, one around late April and the other one in mid-September. When I saw the first one, I realized immediately "hey, that's probably right about when Cornucopia was released!" And, yep, Cornucopia was responsible for, like, seven or eight levels of improvement. Not sure why the second jump happened, though; that was before Hinterlands (which did not have anywhere near the same effect.)

Been dropping a little bit recently, which makes sense: the competition on Iso seems a lot stiffer than it's ever been.

jsh357 · « **Reply #9 on:** February 11, 2012, 03:35:28 pm »

I noticed that my graph improves a lot around the time when WanderingWinder and others started posting commentary videos. (If I may be so bold, I think that's when competition on isotropic really started picking up too--I have played a ton of really skilled low-rank and unranked players lately) Maybe other people have been getting better at the basics by having engaging commentated matches too?

MJ · « **Reply #10 on:** February 11, 2012, 04:51:31 pm »

Are you aware that the leaderboard history doesn't show up properly in Safari 5.1.2 on Mac OS X?

rrenaud · « **Reply #11 on:** February 11, 2012, 05:14:06 pm »

No, I didn't know it was broken on Safari.

Ozle · « **Reply #12 on:** February 11, 2012, 06:13:58 pm »

Can I just interrupt here and say the Council Room stuff is awesome. I love stats!

def · « **Reply #13 on:** February 12, 2012, 06:06:17 am »

@MJ: Why, it looks ok. You probably neither had a level nor a number of games played in 1970.

tlstyer · « **Reply #14 on:** February 13, 2012, 01:53:32 am »

Historical data is from http://bggdl.square7.ch/leaderboard/ and ongoing data is and will be from isotropic. We just scrape the data from the leaderboard pages.

I didn't include the dates between 2011-11-24 and 2011-12-04, as that was when only the last 30 days were considered for the rankings. That's why the graph is just a line during that time. Also, after that time range, the # of eligible games was counted differently (all ranked games before the break, ranked games without card restrictions after the break), which explains drops in the number of games played.

The leaderboard archive also missed a few days during the holidays (2011-12-30 through 2012-01-01), but that shouldn't affect the graphs too much. If anybody saved the leaderboards for these days, then we can include them.

Ratsia · « **Reply #15 on:** February 14, 2012, 03:27:01 am »

I really like the graphs -- now I can stop tracking my own trend manually.

Do you think the Leaderboard history curve would look too messy if it included also the mean TrueSkill rating in addition to the lower bound (=level)? Ideally I would want to see also the upper bound for the skill as I would find it more visually pleasing to see a curve with associated credibility intervals, but that would obviously not add any more information. The mean, however, would tell something that is not apparently visible in the level.

Asklepios · « **Reply #16 on:** February 14, 2012, 03:55:01 am »

Oh thats very cool! November 2011 is when I found dominionstrategy.com, and my level launched from a plateau of 17-20 to its current 30-33.

Goes to show what an awesome site this is.

chogg · « **Reply #17 on:** February 14, 2012, 09:13:38 am »

Quote from: Ratsia on February 14, 2012, 03:27:01 am

I really like the graphs -- now I can stop tracking my own trend manually.

I had been doing that too, until I found the archive.

Quote from: Ratsia on February 14, 2012, 03:27:01 am

Do you think the Leaderboard history curve would look too messy if it included also the mean TrueSkill rating in addition to the lower bound (=level)? Ideally I would want to see also the upper bound for the skill as I would find it more visually pleasing to see a curve with associated credibility intervals, but that would obviously not add any more information. The mean, however, would tell something that is not apparently visible in the level.

How would that not add any more information?

Anyway, I had been planning to do a detailed statistical analysis of the historical logs. Still would like to, but having these graphs available takes off the urgency, and I'm inclined to focus my mental efforts on actual work for the time being.

painted_cow · « **Reply #18 on:** February 16, 2012, 08:11:24 pm »

Would it also be possible to view the mean skill in addition of level?

And is it only me or does loading a personal CR page a huge amount of time lately?

Ratsia · « **Reply #19 on:** February 17, 2012, 01:52:00 am »

Quote from: chogg on February 14, 2012, 09:13:38 am

How would that not add any more information?

The level is the mean skill minus three times the standard deviation. The upper bound would be the mean plus three times the standard deviation. If the figure would show both the mean and the level (=the lower bound) we would already know both the mean and the standard deviation, and hence could infer the upper bound. Drawing it separately would hence not add information as such.

chogg · « **Reply #20 on:** February 17, 2012, 09:25:32 am »

Quote from: Ratsia on February 17, 2012, 01:52:00 am

Quote from: chogg on February 14, 2012, 09:13:38 am
How would that not add any more information?
The level is the mean skill minus three times the standard deviation. The upper bound would be the mean plus three times the standard deviation. If the figure would show both the mean and the level (=the lower bound) we would already know both the mean and the standard deviation, and hence could infer the upper bound. Drawing it separately would hence not add information as such.

Ah, I misread you originally. I thought you meant plotting the mean would not show any more information.

^_^_^_^ · « **Reply #21 on:** March 04, 2012, 08:04:43 pm »

By the way it is still broken on Safari, even on older versions.

rrenaud · « **Reply #22 on:** March 04, 2012, 11:44:35 pm »

Cross browser compatibility isn't a big concern for me. Chrome probably runs on your platform, and Safari definitely doesn't run on mine. I'll happily take pull requests that fix it, but doing cross browser compatibility work to support non-open source browsers isn't really something I am going to do in my free time.

^_^_^_^ · « **Reply #23 on:** March 05, 2012, 04:09:48 pm »

Quote from: rrenaud on March 04, 2012, 11:44:35 pm

Cross browser compatibility isn't a big concern for me. Chrome probably runs on your platform, and Safari definitely doesn't run on mine. I'll happily take pull requests that fix it, but doing cross browser compatibility work to support non-open source browsers isn't really something I am going to do in my free time.

K It works on FFox though so I'm good

Wolphmaniac · « **Reply #24 on:** April 10, 2012, 02:41:33 pm »

I searched my Isotropic username on CouncilRoom.com and only 6 games come up. But I have played about 1,300 games. How do I get my full stats?

Thanks,
Wolphmaniac

theory · « **Reply #25 on:** April 10, 2012, 02:45:14 pm »

Quote from: Wolphmaniac on April 10, 2012, 02:41:33 pm

I searched my Isotropic username on CouncilRoom.com and only 6 games come up. But I have played about 1,300 games. How do I get my full stats?

Thanks,
Wolphmaniac

The CouncilRoom search is case-sensitive. I believe you are looking for http://councilroom.com/player?player=Wolphmaniac

Wolphmaniac · « **Reply #26 on:** April 10, 2012, 02:48:49 pm »

Bam! Thanks theory!

Thisisnotasmile · « **Reply #27 on:** April 10, 2012, 03:37:23 pm »

Click the link to your CR profile next to your post.

Edit: Apparently there's a new page...

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Author Topic: New councilroom feature: historical level/#games graphs (Read 11199 times)