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Author Topic: M98: Русская Mafia (Game over! Town won!)  (Read 54211 times)

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kkrieg

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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #1650 on: May 16, 2017, 12:28:08 am »

^^ I will address all this tomorrow

Personal note - I just got put on as a project manager for something at work today so I didn't have time to really read everything
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kkrieg

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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #1651 on: May 16, 2017, 12:28:36 am »

Of course that was page top when I use ^^^
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schadd

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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #1652 on: May 16, 2017, 08:19:00 am »

grats!
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Robz888

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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #1653 on: May 16, 2017, 12:48:20 pm »

kkrieg, does my reasoning as to why sk should have no-killed last night make sense?

A thought occurred. Who do you think faust killed last night, E or gkrieg? I know you know exactly which person faust killed, but humor me.
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schadd

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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #1654 on: May 16, 2017, 01:20:47 pm »

you mean n3? i would assume gkrieg
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Robz888

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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #1655 on: May 16, 2017, 01:36:54 pm »

you mean n3? i would assume gkrieg

Your no-kill plan for the SK only works if faust kills gkrieg, because if gkrieg lives, the SK is outed: gkrieg will have a Detective result on one of the last two candidates for SK. Indeed, the SK is dead in the water if gkrieg survives the night. For this reason, I don't see why faust would actually shoot gkrieg, and I don't see how the SK could safely NOT shoot gkrieg.

Right?
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schadd

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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #1656 on: May 16, 2017, 01:42:07 pm »

i was talking about no killing on n4
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schadd

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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #1657 on: May 16, 2017, 01:43:07 pm »

faust no killed n4


if sk didn't kill, faust assumes "oh cool they don't have strongman" and then kills kkrieg the next night, sk kills faust, i'm endgamed
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schadd

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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #1658 on: May 16, 2017, 01:56:18 pm »

it makes sense that sk would want to kill gkrieg n3 but, like, i don't think faust killed e. we would have likely lynched faust d4 (eevee was very not a goon) if, for example, both shot gkrieg, and so if e claims to jail one of us (probably me since i would have had to investigation immune) for n4 that's at least worse than 50-50 odds for sk come d5 (depends on strongman i guess, which it seems like you did still have here) whereas the current scenario ended up a 50-50 in theory
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Robz888

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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #1659 on: May 16, 2017, 01:59:20 pm »

The nights are starting to run together in my head, since I've had nothing to do during any of them.
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schadd

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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #1660 on: May 16, 2017, 02:02:14 pm »

eh, they're about the same. you lose in both cases unless you have strongman


there's also the possibility of, like, gkrieg & kkrieg dead which is uuuuhhhhhhhh about the same as here i think? thinking of how jk/goon/sk/vt plays out


The nights are starting to run together in my head, since I've had nothing to do during any of them.
i mean like i was thinking about things, at least. again you're making the assumption that i as town should have just twiddled my thumbs for 48 hours while i had an entire qt to speculate into
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schadd

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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #1661 on: May 16, 2017, 02:09:27 pm »

thinking of how jk/goon/sk/vt plays out
this is probably just sk win, actually, assuming strongman is unused. we lynch faust because if we try to lynch sk then faust definitely wins, but then sk wins anyway bc strongman. so killing kkrieg would have probably been better than killing e, excepting the fact that sk just powerloses if faust kills kkrieg as well (and faust doesn't espeially care if gkrieg survives since he probably investigates me (since it gives a definite answer after the first inno), like you said)


i should maybe work on reducing the amount of parentheticals in my setup spec
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schadd

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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #1662 on: May 16, 2017, 02:15:31 pm »

gkrieg uhhhhhh should (?) (?) (?) have copped me n3? because i'm more or less guaranteed to still be alive in the morning? like copping faust is kind of unuseful because he was already likely scum from the way claims worked out.


then yes i actually don't know why faust killed gkrieg. maybe just because kkrieg might not have commuted yet?
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kkrieg

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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #1663 on: May 16, 2017, 09:57:46 pm »

And like I said, the case against me is better supported by hard evidence (night actions vs. the "soft" evidence I have, namely that I would never ever ever shoot my brother mcmc Night 1 as scum, he's too easy for me to manipulate)
idk it really bothers me that you brought this up? it seems super scummy?
I started looking into the night 1 kill and there's some weird stuff going on.
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Robz888

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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #1664 on: May 16, 2017, 10:07:03 pm »

And like I said, the case against me is better supported by hard evidence (night actions vs. the "soft" evidence I have, namely that I would never ever ever shoot my brother mcmc Night 1 as scum, he's too easy for me to manipulate)
idk it really bothers me that you brought this up? it seems super scummy?
I started looking into the night 1 kill and there's some weird stuff going on.

Well, I would say that you should note a number of other people pointed out that I would not kill mcmc for that reason, it's not just me saying that.
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kkrieg

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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #1665 on: May 16, 2017, 10:08:45 pm »

I wasnít sure where to start so I decided I would look at who died each night and work from there. I only got to night 1 because I think the below is pretty incriminating:

Night 1:
Mafia dies
Mafia probably didnít kill mafia
So SK killed mafia

Gkrieg detectived (is that a verb in mafia?) night 1
Gkrieg got no kill for schadd night 1
Robz is the SK

I investigated schadd N1, and faust N2, and got didn't kill for both of them.
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kkrieg

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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #1666 on: May 16, 2017, 10:09:20 pm »

Robz explain to me why that ^^ isn't true?
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schadd

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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #1667 on: May 16, 2017, 10:12:14 pm »

you usually say "copped" (detective is a variant of cop and cop sounds cooler) or "peeked" if you played werewolf. also "investigated" and "guilty'd" / "inno'd" for specific results.


ppe i also had an explanation for why it isn't necessarily incriminating but you may specifically want it from him
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kkrieg

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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #1668 on: May 16, 2017, 10:14:57 pm »

I want to hear your explanation but not until Robz explains.
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Robz888

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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #1669 on: May 16, 2017, 10:29:54 pm »

I want to hear your explanation but not until Robz explains.

That's the hard evidence I was talking about. The only explanation is that schadd activated Investigative Immunity on Night 1, which is something the SK can do.
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schadd

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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #1670 on: May 16, 2017, 11:12:45 pm »

yup


the thing is i would have had to choose to use it n1, and i think there is compelling reason to believe i wouldn't have if i were sk. the way gkrieg put it:
Schadd, if you had investigation immunity one night this game, and were trying to be the last person standing, which night would you have used it on?
my goal would be to survive for, in this game, 5 days if i were sk. gkrieg was able to investigate twice, within reason he could have done a third one as well. i would want to use investigation immunity the night i would most likely be investigated, if at all.


fortunately i already laid out my opinion on who one should cop (again, essentially the same as detective in terms of whomst to target) in NM10 (abridged a bit here):
-in theory, you would actually want to cop someone whom you think has a 50% chance of being scum, maximizing how informative the result is; if there happens to be someone you are absolutely sure is scum for whatever reason, copping them doesn't actually tell you much. in this case you are, uh, allowed to fake a guilty result but most people would say this is ill-advised.
-it is also helpful to cop someone whom you think is difficult to read - in this game, i would think this is TWM (he has had quite good results as scum, twice) and some people may also think this is me, space or awaclus.
so. in an objective sense, come night 1, i think i would have seemed a little less than 50% scum for most people: i defended against the lynch of a townie, and pushed the lynch of a scum (granted, someone who wasn't revealed to be scum during n1, but somebody who would have probably looked bad to most people given how the end of the day turned out). difficult to read, you could maybe make the argument but i would hold that i am at least less intimidating than many of the people here: twm, same as i mentioned in NM10 (2 recent scum mvps, also he just looked weird from the end of the day); robz, also at least 2 scum mvps that i can remember since his return, and strong scum play in general; faust, 2015 scum player of the year; gkrieg, runner up for 2016 scum player of the year; eevee and andrew have both done pretty well as scum recently (i personally lauded both of them for such in m96, andrew was also mvp in m97)


etc etc. i have played scum twice on site, one i won because the setup was rather scum-favored (RMM37) and one that i lost (M87. i was incidentally copped n2.)


granted gkrieg said i was hard to read but that was in addition to something else i don't think i could have reasonably predicted he (or whoever) would choose to cop me for
why investigate me n1? you don't have to answer

Maybe after.  You seemed like a good person to investigate.  Hard to read, and people had opinions about you.
and that was kind of surprising considering he correctly townread me early on in M94, the last game we played together, at a point where that wasn't an especially popular opinion (i did end up getting lynched d1, granted with 6 people defending me but gkrieg was very early on that train). his choice may have been colored by the fact that i had been scumreading him rather ardently for reasons i refused to say at the time (l0l)


so, there it is. i don't think i would have been innately good to cop, for that reason, and at d1 i didn't seem especially scummy by the gamestate, which may not have been true in later days, so i don't think it would have been a good idea to use investigation immunity n1 if i were sk. which means that i think that gkrieg would have had a guilty on me if i were sk. which means i am pretty sure i'm not sk. and maybe you can also come to this conclusion!
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kkrieg

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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #1671 on: May 16, 2017, 11:22:32 pm »

wow that's really too bad I thought that was 100% incriminating

that leaves me very confused about what I should look at next...
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schadd

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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #1672 on: May 16, 2017, 11:24:57 pm »

Post Number 1670


et al.
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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #1673 on: May 16, 2017, 11:34:49 pm »

Sorry I'm confused.

If schadd were the serial killer, that means he had to use investigation immune.
Then last night he killed Faust and either
1. Faust did no kill
2. Faust targeted schadd and schadd did bulletproof

Or mafia roleblocked schadd and schadd strongmanned?
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schadd

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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #1674 on: May 16, 2017, 11:45:53 pm »

i believe that faust no-killed, knowing that he had the possibility of dying & trying to make the game decided by a proper lylo rather than by his kill. he claimed to have shot robz, and if that's true then robz is just the sk. but i don't think he did


faust probably roleblocked one of us, because there would be no reason not to. i don't think he would have wanted to shoot either of us, just because he loses if the sk dies (2 towns alive, he's confirmed scum). assuming he did roleblock the sk, the sk would have needed to use strongman, but there isn't reason to believe that robz is more likely to have strongman available than i would, and there is zero chance that any bulletproof shot was used up ahead of time (scum have successfully performed all of 1 kill, which was (presumably) gkrieg n3; faust was blocked n1&2)


i have thought about it a lot and i'm reasonably sure i'm not exonerated by any joat triple-jeopardy argument
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