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Author Topic: M98: Русская Mafia (Game over! Town won!)  (Read 54362 times)

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Robz888

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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #1625 on: May 14, 2017, 04:35:46 pm »

Vote: schadd
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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #1626 on: May 14, 2017, 04:39:56 pm »

Well, it's up to kkrieg to decide. Let us know what you need from us in order to make your choice.
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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #1627 on: May 14, 2017, 05:04:03 pm »

ok awesome no pressure.

I'll reread some today.
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schadd

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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #1628 on: May 14, 2017, 06:14:09 pm »

oh incidentally, killing faust right away wasn't the right play for SK. he should have waited (at least) one night so faust thinks he doesn't have strongman, so faust kills kkrieg n5 to pursue his wincon and so sk kills faust n5 as well, endgaming me


in the words of robz in m90, this basically ICs me
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schadd

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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #1629 on: May 14, 2017, 06:16:22 pm »

that is assuming faust didn't kill himself but i'm pretty sure he knew he won if robz had already used strongman
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Robz888

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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #1630 on: May 14, 2017, 06:19:28 pm »

oh incidentally, killing faust right away wasn't the right play for SK. he should have waited (at least) one night so faust thinks he doesn't have strongman, so faust kills kkrieg n5 to pursue his wincon and so sk kills faust n5 as well, endgaming me


in the words of robz in m90, this basically ICs me

I don't understand any part of this plan. I realize you've thought about what's in the best interests of the SK longer than I have, but how would this work? Why would faust deviate from just shooting the SK until the SK is dead?
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schadd

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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #1631 on: May 14, 2017, 06:39:14 pm »

yeah town is supposed to spend all their time trying to figure out what town would be doing


it's kind of a scumslip that you think faust shot sk (ie me from your point of view). if he thought i was sk, he would have roleblocked me, which means i would have had to strongman, bulletproof to survive, and investigation immune n1, whereas there's only two joat shots. so you're either not bothering to think about the setup or you're not thinking of me as sk


faust kills kkrieg and not you because he only wins if your kill doesn't go through, and so if he kills you then he loses (3 way where he is confscum)
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schadd

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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #1632 on: May 14, 2017, 06:44:06 pm »

just so you know, i was planning to vote you if we woke up to kkrieg dead and faust alive
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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #1633 on: May 14, 2017, 09:35:58 pm »

yeah town is supposed to spend all their time trying to figure out what town would be doing


it's kind of a scumslip that you think faust shot sk (ie me from your point of view). if he thought i was sk, he would have roleblocked me, which means i would have had to strongman, bulletproof to survive, and investigation immune n1, whereas there's only two joat shots. so you're either not bothering to think about the setup or you're not thinking of me as sk


faust kills kkrieg and not you because he only wins if your kill doesn't go through, and so if he kills you then he loses (3 way where he is confscum)

My best guess is that faust didn't shoot, because he didn't want to be kingmaking. Or he shot kkrieg anyway, and kkrieg commuted to survive--of course, kkrieg knows whether that's what happened. Or he for some reason hedged his bets, shooting you but blocking me.
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schadd

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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #1634 on: May 14, 2017, 10:03:17 pm »

Or he for some reason hedged his bets, shooting you but blocking me.
if he shoots sk that isn't bulletproof he loses. if he doesn't roleblock sk he is more than likely shot (if he thought it was me, it would have seemed like i planned to shoot that night; you apparently aren't aware of any plan involving no-kill the first night)


she can say whether she commuted, if she wants to. i would think she did n3.
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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #1635 on: May 14, 2017, 10:07:13 pm »

Or he for some reason hedged his bets, shooting you but blocking me.
if he shoots sk that isn't bulletproof he loses. if he doesn't roleblock sk he is more than likely shot (if he thought it was me, it would have seemed like i planned to shoot that night; you apparently aren't aware of any plan involving no-kill the first night)

He loses in all situations. You have not laid out a situation where faust doesn't lose. The only one I can think of would be faust shooting a defenseless SK at the same time as the SK killing the last (or second last townie).

You want the town cred for proposing an SK plan, saying you didn't act on it and that the proves you town, except it wasn't a good plan anyway, which is why you didn't do it.
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schadd

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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #1636 on: May 14, 2017, 10:11:10 pm »

if sk doesn't have strongman left, then faust (can) win. roleblock sk every night, killing kkrieg then killing sk.
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Re: M98: Русская Mafia
« Reply #1637 on: May 14, 2017, 10:15:17 pm »


i guess it doesn't say if scum can action and kill in the same night, but i kind of assumed they could because
- If the Traitor will inherit the NK and become a Mafia Roleblocker if is the only Mafia player alive.


could one mafia kill and roleblock on the same night?
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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #1638 on: May 14, 2017, 10:27:59 pm »

if sk doesn't have strongman left, then faust (can) win. roleblock sk every night, killing kkrieg then killing sk.

There will be a day phase, though, with faust, SK, and VT all still alive. They would have to do nothing on this day for faust to win. VT could vote with SK to spite kill faust. That's probably what I would do, since it would seem like a no-win position for the town.
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schadd

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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #1639 on: May 14, 2017, 10:28:08 pm »

oh right, the other thing was that faust managed to kill n3 which he could (more than likely) only do if he roleblocked e.
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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #1640 on: May 14, 2017, 10:34:07 pm »

if sk doesn't have strongman left, then faust (can) win. roleblock sk every night, killing kkrieg then killing sk.

There will be a day phase, though, with faust, SK, and VT all still alive. They would have to do nothing on this day for faust to win. VT could vote with SK to spite kill faust. That's probably what I would do, since it would seem like a no-win position for the town.
right. but like i said i would have voted you, you also townread faust for a lot of the game iirc and might have similarly felt he deserves the win. and no lynch is still the best move for town since it gives us nonzero chance of winning.


even if that doesn't guarantee faust the win, his optimal action in that case is block sk kill town
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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #1641 on: May 14, 2017, 10:35:46 pm »

obviously i'm mafia since i've been thinking about mafia's optimal action
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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #1642 on: May 14, 2017, 10:41:07 pm »

if sk doesn't have strongman left, then faust (can) win. roleblock sk every night, killing kkrieg then killing sk.

There will be a day phase, though, with faust, SK, and VT all still alive. They would have to do nothing on this day for faust to win. VT could vote with SK to spite kill faust. That's probably what I would do, since it would seem like a no-win position for the town.
right. but like i said i would have voted you, you also townread faust for a lot of the game iirc and might have similarly felt he deserves the win. and no lynch is still the best move for town since it gives us nonzero chance of winning.

Am I town or SK in this hypothetical? In a three-person standoff between mafia!faust, VT!me, and SK!you, in which there was no way for the SK to ever kill again because Mafia can roleblock, I'm not sure what I'm going to do, personally. Straight-up lynching faust would be tempting though.
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schadd

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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #1643 on: May 14, 2017, 10:43:32 pm »

i'm saying that it holds no matter who is the town. i said what i would do first because i'm the one that is town
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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #1644 on: May 14, 2017, 10:48:04 pm »

i'm saying that it holds no matter who is the town. i said what i would do first because i'm the one that is town

I think you didn't do this plan of yours because it's pretty risky and you're in a good position to win here in LYLO against me with kkrieg. I admit it, your case for why you are town is better supported by the hard evidence. This is deeply unfortunate, because hard evidence can mislead, and this is exactly how I, as town, have lost to Serial Killers before. But it is what it is.
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schadd

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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #1645 on: May 14, 2017, 10:54:48 pm »

it's also supported by soft evidence. gkrieg is a pretty soft guy tbh
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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #1646 on: May 14, 2017, 10:56:50 pm »

And on that note, kkrieg, I won't blame you for lynching me... you're new, and it's got to feel like a lot of pressure, you don't want to let down the rest of the town and your IRL husband who roped you into this. And like I said, the case against me is better supported by hard evidence (night actions vs. the "soft" evidence I have, namely that I would never ever ever shoot my brother mcmc Night 1 as scum, he's too easy for me to manipulate), and this is sometimes, not always but sometimes, a game of statistics, and the smarter bet, or at least, the more mathematically sound bet, is on me being scum.

I'm always thinking, when I'm at the end in your position, which decision can I live with even if it ends up being wrong, and I have to think that for you, lynching me is the one you can live with even if it ends up being wrong (which it is). Which is actually a bad, bad, terrible way of making the decision, and probably why I'm not a very good townie! I just lost a game at LYLO, Mafia 97, because I had to make the exact choice you have to make here, and I knew how much I would regret it if I lynched Andrew and I was wrong, because so much evidence was saying Andrew is town, even though I had begun to suspect that this was indeed scum Andrew, and so I made the wrong call. And we lost.

Good luck!
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schadd

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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #1647 on: May 14, 2017, 11:07:41 pm »

on that note, kkrieg, i haven't bothered with any dumb emotional argument because you're good at this game and i'm pretty confident that you'll do fine with the evidence given to you
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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #1648 on: May 14, 2017, 11:13:29 pm »

on that note, kkrieg, i haven't bothered with any dumb emotional argument because you're good at this game and i'm pretty confident that you'll do fine with the evidence given to you

I'm confident in you as well, I'm just perfectly aware that the evidence is probably going to lead you to the wrong conclusion, incidentally.
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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #1649 on: May 15, 2017, 09:15:01 pm »

kkrieg, does my reasoning as to why sk should have no-killed last night make sense?
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