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Author Topic: M98: Русская Mafia (Game over! Town won!)  (Read 54224 times)

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LaLight

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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (PMs are out! N0)
« Reply #1500 on: May 10, 2017, 02:55:17 pm »

Vote count 3.5!

Eevee (2): 2,71828....., Robz888
Robz888 (1): Eevee
faust (1): kkrieg

Not voting (3): schadd, gkrieg13, faust

With 7 alive it takes 4 to lynch. Day 3 ends Friday, 12th of May at 1 am FT. This is in 34 hours.
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gkrieg13

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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1501 on: May 10, 2017, 02:57:47 pm »

Keep in mind deadline is really tomorrow night.
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2.71828.....

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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1502 on: May 10, 2017, 03:15:06 pm »

I had another thought, might as well put it down here:

If we lynch our VT, the game is not over for town.

We go into the night at 2 mafia, 1 SK, 3 town. 
1) In order to have any chance at winning, the SK must shoot a member of the mafia. 
2) Mafia's biggest threat at this point (after SK has shot a goon/traitor) is a kingmaking situation.  If they shoot a townie, we will be at 1 SK, 1 mafia, 2 town at the start of D4.  Which no one wants.  Rather, mafia will want to shoot the SK.
     a) If that kill is successful, we are at 3 town, 1 mafia; mylo situation.
     b) If that kill is unsuccessful (maybe SK is still BP or whatever reason), we are at 3 town, 1 SK, 1 mafia.

The key to town's success (in my opinion) is that the SK fully knows the setup.  Right now, the SK {Robz, eevee, schadd} does not know with absolute certainty which of the remaining two players in that pool is the traitor or is town.  Now, if we lynch from the pool the SK knows everything.  Which will allow them to shoot mafia tonight.

At this point in the game, any faction could win.  Town's only way to win is at mylo/lylo, which in order for that to happen we need a minimum of 1 scum death today/tonight with at least 3 townies remaining alive going into D4.  The SK's only way to win is to win at lylo, which will not happen if two mafia are still alive at the start of D4.  Mafia can win if they lynch the SK today and survive then get one mislynch in the last two days of lylo.

The point of all this is to say that if we lynch eevee, it will be blatantly obvious who is scum between myself and faust.  If eevee is the SK, faust is scum.  If eevee is the traitor, faust is scum.  If eevee is town, faust is scum.  If eevee is the goon....well, I know faust is scum, but all the evidence would point to my being scum, so I would just have to say hats off to a job well done by faust.
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2.71828.....

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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1503 on: May 10, 2017, 03:18:31 pm »

Basically, if faust is town, he would see the reasoning behind lynching eevee.  He is not, therefore he does not want to lynch eevee.
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Robz888

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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1504 on: May 10, 2017, 03:19:27 pm »

I'm not sure spelling all that out was the best idea, there's a risk of coaching SK and mafia on how they should navigate a night where both factions are still alive.

This actually makes me feel a lot worse about E! Because it's exactly the kind of thing scum wants to put out there.
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I have been forced to accept that lackluster play is a town tell for you.

2.71828.....

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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1505 on: May 10, 2017, 03:20:40 pm »

I'm not sure spelling all that out was the best idea, there's a risk of coaching SK and mafia on how they should navigate a night where both factions are still alive.

This actually makes me feel a lot worse about E! Because it's exactly the kind of thing scum wants to put out there.

I am definitely coaching the SK in how he should act tonight.  That was the clear intent of my post. 
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Man. I had four strips of bacon yesterday. Was one automatically undercooked, one automatically overcooked? No, let's put a stop to that right here, all four strips were excellent.

Robz888

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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1506 on: May 10, 2017, 03:21:54 pm »

That said, the analysis is correct. We should lynch Eevee in all conceivable scenarios. Eevee is not the VT, because I am the VT, and Eevee is more likely SK than schadd.

Kkrieg, I really think you should be voting for Eevee and not faust, even if you think faust is more likely scum than E.
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I have been forced to accept that lackluster play is a town tell for you.

2.71828.....

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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1507 on: May 10, 2017, 03:23:51 pm »

Unless the SK wants to just sit back and watch the world burn, the only logical move for him is to kill mafia tonight.  If he doesn't, he will be giving the game away to the mafia (which is totally within his power).  But I play under the assumption that everyone wants to win.  I do.
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Eevee

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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1508 on: May 10, 2017, 03:24:34 pm »

I think E is more likely town than faust, but I'd have to go back to provide a reason. I admit to being a little ambivalent about this, since we should lynch either schadd or Eevee with 100% guarantee to hit scum, and then it might actually become obvious who is scum between E and faust.

Especially if we lynch eevee.

I'm slightly confused why you are so certain that Eevee is the SK.
Me too!
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Eevee

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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1509 on: May 10, 2017, 03:26:30 pm »

Also, does Robz usually bus or not bus?
Robz is perfectly capable of bussing, but that doesn't mean he busses always, naturally. I think you could find examples of both epic busses from him, and going down defending the partner from him.
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Eevee

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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1510 on: May 10, 2017, 03:30:25 pm »

I would never shoot a claimed VT if I was the SK.

Actually, I don't see Robz doing it either tbh.. maybe the SK is schadd after all?
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Robz888

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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1511 on: May 10, 2017, 03:37:20 pm »

I would never shoot a claimed VT if I was the SK.

Actually, I don't see Robz doing it either tbh.. maybe the SK is schadd after all?

Me neither. Especially VT mcmcsalot.

Is does seem more plausible that schadd would do this than Eevee, for what it's worth. I know I've said this before, but I'm having mega flashbacks to SK!Axxle. But anyway, the downside here isn't the hugest because Eevee is scum either way.
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I have been forced to accept that lackluster play is a town tell for you.

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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1512 on: May 10, 2017, 03:43:27 pm »

I could convince myself to vote for schadd or Robz based on my analysis above. 

In different formatting, these are the situations that I see:

Lynch the SK:
       1) Town controls their own destiny.  We are at lylo at that point, mafia will shoot one of the ICs, and we just need two good lynches.
Lynch mafia (traitor or goon):
       1) There is a potential kingmaking situation that could occur between mafia/SK.  I know which faction I would support, but I will not state that unless I am put in that situation tomorrow.
       2) All other situations result in some sort of mylo/lylo where town controls their own destiny.
Lynch town
       1) See option (1) under lynch mafia
       2) 2 mafia survive the night and mafia win
       3) Some sort of mylo/lylo situation where town controls their own destiny.
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Man. I had four strips of bacon yesterday. Was one automatically undercooked, one automatically overcooked? No, let's put a stop to that right here, all four strips were excellent.

Eevee

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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1513 on: May 10, 2017, 03:45:11 pm »

Maybe we just lynch schadd?

That is actually a pretty convincing argument to me, now that I mirror it to my own thinking. Only reason I could think you'd kill a claimed VT mcmc would be to confuse town in a situation like this, and that's pretty far-fetched even for you.

I think you are confident in your abilities outsmarting him, being the older brother and all. And there is more of a precedent of him townreading you too much than anything else too.
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Eevee

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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1514 on: May 10, 2017, 03:45:27 pm »

Okay. Vote: schadd
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Robz888

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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1515 on: May 10, 2017, 03:47:12 pm »

Maybe we just lynch schadd?

That is actually a pretty convincing argument to me, now that I mirror it to my own thinking. Only reason I could think you'd kill a claimed VT mcmc would be to confuse town in a situation like this, and that's pretty far-fetched even for you.

I think you are confident in your abilities outsmarting him, being the older brother and all. And there is more of a precedent of him townreading you too much than anything else too.

Right, it's certainly not a thing I would do on Night 1... I can generally always count on convincing mcmc I'm town for the duration of Day 2 at least. And he was a claimed VT.

What holds me back from voting schadd over you is gkrieg's result.

And you're scum anyway!
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I have been forced to accept that lackluster play is a town tell for you.

faust

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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1516 on: May 10, 2017, 04:14:36 pm »

In no way would we want to risk a kingmaking situation, which happens 99% of the time if we lynch the VT. Proposing that is just batshit crazy.
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Since the number of points is within a constant factor of the number of city quarters, in the long run we can get (4 - ε) ↑↑ n points in n turns for any ε > 0.

faust

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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1517 on: May 10, 2017, 04:19:59 pm »

I could convince myself to vote for schadd or Robz based on my analysis above. 

In different formatting, these are the situations that I see:

Lynch the SK:
       1) Town controls their own destiny.  We are at lylo at that point, mafia will shoot one of the ICs, and we just need two good lynches.
Obivously what we need to happen.

Lynch mafia (traitor or goon):
       1) There is a potential kingmaking situation that could occur between mafia/SK.  I know which faction I would support, but I will not state that unless I am put in that situation tomorrow.
The "potential" situation is the most likely outcome. Of course we should not make either king, instead no lynch and hope we can scae one scum into shooting the other.

Lynch town
       1) See option (1) under lynch mafia
       2) 2 mafia survive the night and mafia win
       3) Some sort of mylo/lylo situation where town controls their own destiny.
2 and 3 are hypothetical scenarios that will never happen unless a scum fucks up big time.
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Since the number of points is within a constant factor of the number of city quarters, in the long run we can get (4 - ε) ↑↑ n points in n turns for any ε > 0.

Eevee

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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1518 on: May 10, 2017, 08:33:20 pm »

Maybe we just lynch schadd?

That is actually a pretty convincing argument to me, now that I mirror it to my own thinking. Only reason I could think you'd kill a claimed VT mcmc would be to confuse town in a situation like this, and that's pretty far-fetched even for you.

I think you are confident in your abilities outsmarting him, being the older brother and all. And there is more of a precedent of him townreading you too much than anything else too.

Right, it's certainly not a thing I would do on Night 1... I can generally always count on convincing mcmc I'm town for the duration of Day 2 at least. And he was a claimed VT.

What holds me back from voting schadd over you is gkrieg's result.

And you're scum anyway!
I know I'm negotiating with scum, but oddly we can still find ourselves on the same side.
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gkrieg13

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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1519 on: May 10, 2017, 09:00:48 pm »

Schadd, if you had investigation immunity one night this game, and were trying to be the last person standing, which night would you have used it on?
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schadd

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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1520 on: May 10, 2017, 09:40:44 pm »


schadd, who are you planning on voting for?  Robz or Eevee?
eevee


Eevee is more likely SK than schadd.
i eegree

I would never shoot a claimed VT if I was the SK.

Actually, I don't see Robz doing it either tbh.. maybe the SK is schadd after all?
mcmc kind of scumclaimed, i wouldn't shoot claimed scum.


i mean there isn't really a way to indicate i would know i shouldn't shoot vts but i am pretty sure i would have. i definitely knew groupscum should avoid it - i picked off PRs a lot in M87, there's also this post from M96. it follows pretty close logically that sk should, since PRs are probably the most dangerous thing to sk (bulletproof defends from nightkill better than investigimmune defends from cops).


Schadd, if you had investigation immunity one night this game, and were trying to be the last person standing, which night would you have used it on?
again, no way to know, really. in a game with you, robz and faust, and where i had pushed against the d1 mislynch i don't think i would have reason to expect to be copped. i was a bit surprised you investigated me, sorta shows in that i asked you why.


i also thought commuting would be a good idea when i saw sk could use the town prs (that seemed to me like the only one sk would bother with, unless you really wanted to try to cop someone and look non-scum by pushing a scum lynch) to get out of everything and hide that an sk exists for a while (if knowing that an sk exists is annoying, not knowing that is probably worse)
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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1521 on: May 10, 2017, 09:45:17 pm »

I think we should get the lynch done today (as in, in the next 6 hours rather than the next 30 hours)
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Eevee

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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1522 on: May 10, 2017, 10:38:06 pm »

I'm semi-around.
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schadd

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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1523 on: May 10, 2017, 10:42:47 pm »

not if i have anything to do about it! he said while continuing to not vote
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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1524 on: May 10, 2017, 10:57:51 pm »

and my axe!
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