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Author Topic: M98: Русская Mafia (Game over! Town won!)  (Read 54454 times)

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faust

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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1450 on: May 09, 2017, 06:53:20 am »

Zombies ate my reread.

Main things about schadd are:
- he specifically claimed not-SK D1
- he was strongly focused on mcmc during D1
- he was very hesitant about hammering (i.e. worried to become a focus of attention)
- he thought TWM would be mafia rather than the SK during D2, but after the hammer, only questions him on if he was SK. It's like he abandoned the former narrative because he was worried it'd make him look SK-y (which it does)

On N1, an SK would know the following about the setup:

- 100 % chance of Detective
- 67 % chance of 1-shot Commuter
- 67 % chance of JK
- 33 % chance of Psychologist
- 33 % chance of Goon Cop

Okay, so every SK-setup includes a Detective. Shouldn't this make you less inclined to shoot N1? Well, we had a shot, and the SK knows that there is a PR out there that can definitely catch him, so it makes sense to use investigation immunity.
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Since the number of points is within a constant factor of the number of city quarters, in the long run we can get (4 - ε) ↑↑ n points in n turns for any ε > 0.

Robz888

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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1451 on: May 09, 2017, 08:22:54 am »

So if I played like town, I'm the Serial Killer. If I played like scum, I'm mafia. It would be nice to see the ICs even consider other explanations.
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I have been forced to accept that lackluster play is a town tell for you.

schadd

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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1452 on: May 09, 2017, 08:23:12 am »

Now you're buddying an IC. Gkrieg is a great player but he gets things wrong, too. In Mafia 97, he was no more right about anything than I was, and I was wrong about most things.
he was right about andrew for a longer time


- he was very hesitant about hammering (i.e. worried to become a focus of attention)
i mean i hammered though. and hammering quickly has never reaped benefits in my experience, i figured we could at least give people stuff to not talk about


- he thought TWM would be mafia rather than the SK during D2, but after the hammer, only questions him on if he was SK. It's like he abandoned the former narrative because he was worried it'd make him look SK-y (which it does)
i thought he was sk because he seemed confident i was town for a while but then pivoted back on it for a reason that i thought was silly, in context at least. maf/traitor doesn't do that, i don't think twm is a wifom guy.


you think i wouldn't remember the "talking about the thing makes people think you are the thing" credo of m92?
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faust

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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1453 on: May 09, 2017, 08:27:05 am »

you think i wouldn't remember the "talking about the thing makes people think you are the thing" credo of m92?

Maybe. You're a WIFOM guy after all.
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Since the number of points is within a constant factor of the number of city quarters, in the long run we can get (4 - ε) ↑↑ n points in n turns for any ε > 0.

schadd

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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1454 on: May 09, 2017, 08:38:15 am »

So if I played like town, I'm the Serial Killer. If I played like scum, I'm mafia. It would be nice to see the ICs even consider other explanations.
that has been my heuristic, yes
you think i wouldn't remember the "talking about the thing makes people think you are the thing" credo of m92?

Maybe. You're a WIFOM guy after all.
i'm pretty sure that i'm super not actually. i mean i think my rock paper scissors winrate is like 55%
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I thought you thought it was a slip because I said 'Jake's partners' instead of 'Roadrunner7671.'
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faust

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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1455 on: May 09, 2017, 09:47:29 am »

So if I played like town, I'm the Serial Killer. If I played like scum, I'm mafia. It would be nice to see the ICs even consider other explanations.
that has been my heuristic, yes
you think i wouldn't remember the "talking about the thing makes people think you are the thing" credo of m92?

Maybe. You're a WIFOM guy after all.
i'm pretty sure that i'm super not actually. i mean i think my rock paper scissors winrate is like 55%
I'm not completely sure what this fact means. I would think an above 50 % winrate would indeed indicate that you're a WIFOM guy? Or not? I RPS a game where bad WIFOMers are good for some reason? So many questions that are not really related to this game...
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Since the number of points is within a constant factor of the number of city quarters, in the long run we can get (4 - ε) ↑↑ n points in n turns for any ε > 0.

schadd

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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1456 on: May 09, 2017, 09:48:55 am »

i.e. not larger than 55%
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I thought you thought it was a slip because I said 'Jake's partners' instead of 'Roadrunner7671.'
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gkrieg13

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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1457 on: May 09, 2017, 10:36:35 am »

E and Faust please rank the three and make cases on who is scummiest to towniest. The three, please do so for Faust and e.
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faust

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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1458 on: May 09, 2017, 10:42:14 am »

SK
     |
     |  schadd
     |          Robz
     |
     |
     |
     |
     |                                    Eevee
      --------------------------------> mafia

Case to follow. Tomorrow probably...
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Since the number of points is within a constant factor of the number of city quarters, in the long run we can get (4 - ε) ↑↑ n points in n turns for any ε > 0.

faust

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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1459 on: May 09, 2017, 11:06:41 am »

Explanations on Eevee:

Eevee is not the SK because I blocked him N1. He could be SK if he used Strongman N1 (which I view as unlikely), or if I have been blocked N1 (slightly more likely). He's also unlikely to be SK because he's likely to be mafia.

Eevee is likely mafia because I blocked him twice and we have seen only a single nightkill each time. PLus a scum has fakeclaimed in order to defned him, which does not make that much sense unless they are partners. Additionally, Eevee was super hedgy on mcmc D1, claiming he was his only scumread but never voting, and disappearing before the deadline without announcement in order not to have to decide between mcmc/Awaclus. On D2, he suggested looking at mcmc interactions, but immediately dropped and never picked up the idea again when TWM started catching heat.
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Since the number of points is within a constant factor of the number of city quarters, in the long run we can get (4 - ε) ↑↑ n points in n turns for any ε > 0.

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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1460 on: May 09, 2017, 11:23:33 am »

I liked faust's chart so I copied it

               
 Traitor   |
      Robz |     
                |
                |
                |            schadd     
                |                           
                |                 eevee
              S|K                                 
Town  ------------------------ Scum

Eevee- I think most likely to be scum, and the SK
schadd- I think schadd is the other scum, but not as confident as eevee. Traitor more likely than SK I think.
Robz- I think he is the town, but if he is scum I totally believe him to be the traitor.

More in depth cases later.
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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1461 on: May 09, 2017, 11:35:44 am »

So if I played like town, I'm the Serial Killer. If I played like scum, I'm mafia. It would be nice to see the ICs even consider other explanations.

Oh, I am definitely considering that you might be town. Although you will always have that feeling in the back of my mind. I have read you as town in several games (going back to Toy Story Mafia) where you turned out to be scum.

That being said, I don't think this is a game where I get burned for town reading you.
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faust

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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1462 on: May 09, 2017, 12:31:39 pm »

e, I don't think your diagram really works in a 2-dimensional plane.
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Since the number of points is within a constant factor of the number of city quarters, in the long run we can get (4 - ε) ↑↑ n points in n turns for any ε > 0.

Eevee

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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1463 on: May 09, 2017, 01:01:26 pm »

I was already sleeping when the mcmc wagon appeared, it was pretty late here already.

Bad on me for not being more clear about my availability on the deadline. Not really proud of my level of engagement in this game, I don't even know why. Haven't really made any good reads or had particularly good insight either, I think I got to take a small break from this after Robz's big game. It's always a bit of a drop in intensity for me drawing a more boring role after being scum so much lately.
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gkrieg13

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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1464 on: May 09, 2017, 01:48:09 pm »

if she didn't the setup is confirmed. but we ought to wait for our fausts and our gkriegs to have a go

This is probably the most scummy post from VT!schadd.
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gkrieg13

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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1465 on: May 09, 2017, 01:49:23 pm »

i uh don't plan to play a game with a serial killer in the near future

This is one of the main reasons I think schadd is town. This is my thought exactly right here, that we can kind of know who is scum here, but we have to lynch the SK to not have a kingmaker situation seems crazy.
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gkrieg13

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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1466 on: May 09, 2017, 01:51:37 pm »


hi friends.

HI. Why are Robz and eevee scum, with you actually being the vt

-i'm the only one of us that concretely pushed mcmc and defended awaclus
-robz was on kkrieg. i didn't defend her really but i told her she didn't have to claim
-the two of them teamed up on me toward eod2 and sort of coerced me into the twm lynch (though i did want to lynch him either way).


uh


eevee makes more sense to me as sk by day stuff. last game eevee was town, i was null on him and a bunch of other people scumread him; last time he was scum, i scumread him and the majority townread him. this game he seemed super town to me by tone and had no defenders. i would think his sk game looks more like his town game in that sense, but that's not a given, and the fact that sk & traitor exist could have changed the way he thought of the game if scum (hence why i don't like sk stuff)


robz was an intuitive mcmc partner to me at the start of d2.


that eevee claimed vt rather than ccing gkrieg is worth noting.

I think I have a perfect counter claiming not being lynched record, so I'm not that surprised that scum!Eevee didn't counterclaim me.
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gkrieg13

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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1467 on: May 09, 2017, 01:53:11 pm »

everybody make sure not to say anything about an n3 kill target

This too is just townie, and also what I was thinking/looking for.
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gkrieg13

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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1468 on: May 09, 2017, 02:03:18 pm »

prodge ish. it's mostly up to gkrieg and kkrieg to decide now.


something to consider: whomst does the traitor block if not gkrieg? (prob faust, if faust isn't scum)

I was just thinking about this. 

So traitor knows mafia, so they aren't going to block their scum buddies.  But that means that the JK most likely blocked the kill.  But if faust is town, and I wasn't roleblocked, and the roleblocker is one of {schadd, Eevee, Robz, faust, e}, who do they choose to block?

Also, I was going for mcmcsalot pretty hard D1, so I would be surprised if I weren't the planned NK, unless they thought I was the traitor, so they wanted to make sure they gave up their kill. So either, mafia shot traitor N1, or they were blocked and tried to shoot a townie.

But if the roleblocker blocked town!faust, then they must've shot the traitor N1.  Otherwise they blocked someone who wasn't me, and wasn't town!faust, and wasn't town!e.  So like I really don't know who they blocked...

I mean I'm pretty sure the SK didn't use their strongman N1.
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gkrieg13

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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1469 on: May 09, 2017, 02:05:22 pm »

Also possible/kinda probable that at least one mafia knows for sure who the SK is, which means that they know who the VT is in the three.
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gkrieg13

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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1470 on: May 09, 2017, 02:16:38 pm »

Scummy posts from Eevee.

weird is towny.

robz is towny

mcmc scummy

got to give town points for faust for leading

why is andrew brought up so often as a viable lynch without accompanying vote movement?

Oh, we are back on!

Only three more for the mcmcsalot wagon to go!  Any takers?  Kkrieg, why do you think Awaclus is a better lynch than mcmcsalot?
babe you know it's past my bedtime don't ask hard questions

he reacted pretty quickly to my initial kinda random vote at him
he hasn't been particularly helpful
he jumped on the mcmc train

honestly my reasons are weak but heyy it is day 1
I remember being surprised kkrieg could come up with that many that good reasons for the switch (and wondering why hadn't she said those things before being asked - kind of felt like she made the vote, and then only thought of the reasons after being pressed for it).

Just phone access now, but mcmc being the almost-lynch of yesterday should be helpful in determining the second mafia at least. Like, probably not e based on his voting, so my suspicion on yesterday was wrong on that at least (again, probably).

I think someone who was suspected by mcmc is far far more likely to shoot him.

I don't feel great about lynching Robz (eh, same read than mcmc last night, I don't have a reason to be against this lynch but I've seen no reason to suspect him other than "He is Robz and he is still alive") or faust (although he has been more and more aggressive as the leader (and main scumhunter!), which I guess is reading scummier to me because it could be a disguise for pushing towny lynches). Still would like TWM, but I don't know if that's happening anymore.

What about schadd? The post e quoted made me realize my earlier exchanges with him. I could vote for schadd.

That's a decent night for us.. I guess. Sooooo much variance in the game right now.

Wasn't Andrew pushing for faust really hard yesterday?
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Robz888

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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1471 on: May 09, 2017, 03:35:07 pm »

I think E is more likely town than faust, but I'd have to go back to provide a reason. I admit to being a little ambivalent about this, since we should lynch either schadd or Eevee with 100% guarantee to hit scum, and then it might actually become obvious who is scum between E and faust.
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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1472 on: May 09, 2017, 03:50:58 pm »

I think E is more likely town than faust, but I'd have to go back to provide a reason. I admit to being a little ambivalent about this, since we should lynch either schadd or Eevee with 100% guarantee to hit scum, and then it might actually become obvious who is scum between E and faust.

Especially if we lynch eevee.
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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1473 on: May 09, 2017, 03:53:10 pm »

For being obvious between myself and faust who is scum
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gkrieg13

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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (PMs are out! N0)
« Reply #1474 on: May 09, 2017, 07:36:15 pm »

Vote count 1.1

Robz888 (1): schadd
AndrewisFTTW (2): gkrieg13, Awaclus
Awaclus (2): faust, The_Wine_Merchant
faust (1): AndrewisFTTW
Not voting (5): Robz888, Eevee, 2,71828....., mcmcsalot, kkrieg

With 11 alive it takes 6 to lynch. Day 1 ends Monday, 24th of April at 5 am FT.

Vote Count 1.2

Robz888 (1): schadd
AndrewisFTTW (1): Awaclus
Awaclus (2): faust, The_Wine_Merchant
faust (2): AndrewisFTTW, gkrieg13
Eevee (1): 2,71828.....
Not voting (4): Robz888, Eevee, mcmcsalot, kkrieg

With 11 alive it takes 6 to lynch. Day 1 ends Monday, 24th of April at 5 am FT.

Vote Count 1.3

Robz888 (1): schadd
AndrewisFTTW (1): Awaclus
Awaclus (2): The_Wine_Merchant, kkrieg
faust (1): AndrewisFTTW
Eevee (1): 2,71828.....
The_Wine_Merchant (1): mcmcsalot
2,71828..... (3): faust, Eevee, Robz888
Not voting (1): gkrieg13

With 11 alive it takes 6 to lynch. Day 1 ends Monday, 24th of April at 5 am FT.

Vote Count 1.4

Robz888 (2): schadd, faust
AndrewisFTTW (2): Awaclus, Robz888
Awaclus (2): The_Wine_Merchant, kkrieg
The_Wine_Merchant (1): mcmcsalot
2,71828..... (2): Eevee, gkrieg13
kkrieg (1): 2,71828.....
Not voting (1): AndrewisFTTW

With 11 alive it takes 6 to lynch. Day 1 ends Monday, 24th of April at 5 am FT.

Vote Count 1.HAPPY BIRTHDAY, MCMCSALOT!

Robz888 (3): schadd, faust, AndrewisFTTW
AndrewisFTTW (2): Awaclus, Robz888
Awaclus (1): kkrieg
The_Wine_Merchant (1): mcmcsalot
2,71828..... (1): Eevee
kkrieg (1): 2,71828.....
mcmcsalot (2): gkrieg13, The_Wine_Merchant
Not voting (0):

With 11 alive it takes 6 to lynch. Day 1 ends Monday, 24th of April at 5 am FT. This is in 24 hours.

Vote Count 1.6
 
Awaclus (5): kkrieg, AndrewisFTTW, mcmcsalot, The_Wine_Merchant, Robz888
2,71828..... (2): Eevee, faust
mcmcsalot (3): schadd, gkrieg13, Awaclus
faust (1): 2,71828.....
Not voting (0):

With 11 alive it takes 6 to lynch. Day 1 ends Monday, 24th of April at 5 am FT. This is in 4 hours.

Vote Count 1.final
 
Awaclus (6): kkrieg, AndrewisFTTW, mcmcsalot, The_Wine_Merchant, Robz888, 2,71828.....
2,71828..... (2): Eevee, faust
mcmcsalot (3): schadd, gkrieg13, Awaclus
Not voting (0):

With 11 alive it took 6 to lynch. Thread Locked.
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