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Author Topic: M98: Русская Mafia (Game over! Town won!)  (Read 54927 times)

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2.71828.....

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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1350 on: May 06, 2017, 10:46:26 am »

Shortly after this he does his eevee re-read because he "doesn't remember eevee at all (already quoted this post).

But I was looking that up to say:

I already explained this to you earlier. Catch up, if you were the real JK you would have thought of this already
If I was scum fakeclaiming JK, I would have thought of this already.

I had thought of the fact that we need to lynch SK and find traitor over lynching the goon yesterday. It's only a new idea to you because you just thought of your claim last night or earlier todat
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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1351 on: May 06, 2017, 10:49:25 am »

Well we already know that for some reason you think that if you jailkeep someone and then there's no death, this is definite proof that the player in question is scum. I don't think the setup warrants that even remotely.

No, I jailkept someone twice, with no death twice.

While I spent some time voting for you yesterday, I consistently looked for alternative wagons because I wanted to prove my theory.

Look at any game. I always overstate my cases and appear overconfident in them.
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faust

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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1352 on: May 06, 2017, 10:50:20 am »

I had thought of the fact that we need to lynch SK and find traitor over lynching the goon yesterday. It's only a new idea to you because you just thought of your claim last night or earlier todat
What? I thought of the same thing. I pushed for the person I thought was the SK over the person I thought was the Goon.
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Since the number of points is within a constant factor of the number of city quarters, in the long run we can get (4 - ε) ↑↑ n points in n turns for any ε > 0.

faust

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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1353 on: May 06, 2017, 10:51:19 am »

Well we already know that for some reason you think that if you jailkeep someone and then there's no death, this is definite proof that the player in question is scum. I don't think the setup warrants that even remotely.

No, I jailkept someone twice, with no death twice.
Yeah, now you're talking about N2 evidence to justify your D2 read.
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Since the number of points is within a constant factor of the number of city quarters, in the long run we can get (4 - ε) ↑↑ n points in n turns for any ε > 0.

faust

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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1354 on: May 06, 2017, 10:52:32 am »

Also I even said the exact things at the start of D2.

Also there clearly was a blocked kill. That can be any of SK/1-shot BP/JK/Traitor uwittingly blocking their partner, so I'm not sure if a claim helps us here.
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Since the number of points is within a constant factor of the number of city quarters, in the long run we can get (4 - ε) ↑↑ n points in n turns for any ε > 0.

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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1355 on: May 06, 2017, 10:54:36 am »

Basically, faust is not scum hunting, he is SK-hunting. Which I think is scummy.

That being said, let's lynch the SK first, then we can lynch faust tomorrow

Well, and you were being scummy for fabricating a case against TWM
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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1356 on: May 06, 2017, 11:00:10 am »

I should do that reads list schadd asked for. Will include kkrieg's pre-claim position for completeness.

Since SK and mafia reads are substantially different, I will give them separately. Scores will be x / y where x and y are number between 0 and 10. 10 means definitely [mafia for X/SK for y], 5 means neutral, 0 means definitely not that. Maybe it would make sense to include a separate Traitor category. Actually, with kkrieg's claim, we know that either Traitor knows Mafia or they don't know about each other. I don't think I will go through the trouble of separating these.

Well, here we go!

Robz888 - 4 / 7 [slightly unlikely to be mafia, mostly due to activity level and content, which I think would be higher then. It's good for an SK trying to stay under the radar a bit and to not get shot. Also mcmc at least has a connection to Robz, so that kill would make some sense.]
The_Wine_Merchant - 3 / 9 [I kinda doubt that mcmc and TWM would go for hard bussing. Reasons for being SK have been explained.]
schadd - 6 / 2 [Uncomfortable position for an SK - exposed and both likely to get lynched and nightkilled. As scum I could see him doing that more.]
Eevee - 8 / 2 [See Eevee reread; the way he treats the mcmc wagon is extremely suspicious, plus showing no interest to investigate that wagon today. I don't think SK!Eevee shoots mcmc.]
gkrieg13 - 3 / 4 [Overall townie read, but nothing stands out to make him obvtown. D1 suggests he's not mcmc's partner.]
AndrewisFTTW - 5 / 4 [Mostly neutral. Was slightly scummy on mcmc IIRC, but then later it seemed he didn't think about the setup at all, which he would have done as scum and as the SK.]
2.71828..... -  e / e ... no, just kidding. Similar though, maybe 4 / 4 [I cannot really speak to him, I think I need to reread. He's made a townie impression, but that's just based on tone.]
kkrieg - 6 / 7 [I thought that she had some kind of role without a partner. SK or Traitor made sense. Now she's town unless we get a counterclaim, which I sort of doubt.]

You should really work on those fakeclaims.
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gkrieg13

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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1357 on: May 06, 2017, 11:09:02 am »

Ok. Kkrieg would you like me to do a summary post for you?  It might be easier if there is a short post to bring you up to speed.
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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1358 on: May 06, 2017, 11:10:26 am »

Ok. Kkrieg would you like me to do a summary post for you?  It might be easier if there is a short post to bring you up to speed.

is she on the computer in the other room?  Haha
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kkrieg

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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1359 on: May 06, 2017, 11:14:36 am »

Ok. Kkrieg would you like me to do a summary post for you?  It might be easier if there is a short post to bring you up to speed.
...yes
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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1360 on: May 06, 2017, 11:22:42 am »

Okay, I just re-read this day, and I feel like I have a stronger grasp of what's happening now. Stronger than I did when I was frantically trying to keep up on my phone.

It seems decently likely to me that E is town and faust is lying. Faust cannot be the SK, so he must be the Goon.

Gkrieg's result means that schadd is much less likely to be the SK than Eevee. This is a little vexing, I can remember losing Mafia 40 to Serial Killer Axxle because I ruled him out as SK very early on, because of a night action sequence that made him much less likely to be SK than everyone else. But okay, it's more likely to be Eevee. That makes schadd the unrecruited Traitor.

If faust were telling the truth rather than E, Eevee couldn't be the SK because he was jailed on Night 1, and also schadd would still be unlikely to be the SK because of gkrieg's result. Which leaves... me. But I'm not the SK. Ergo, E being truthful is more plausible to me.
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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1361 on: May 06, 2017, 11:24:23 am »

Oh, wait a minute, in the "faust tells the truth" scenario, it's possible E is himself the Serial Killer, right?

So we should lynch Eevee if faust is lying, and we should lynch E if faust is telling the truth.
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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1362 on: May 06, 2017, 11:25:56 am »

Well, lynching Eevee is less of a risk, since Eevee IS some kind of scum, whereas E could be either scum or town.
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gkrieg13

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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1363 on: May 06, 2017, 11:28:58 am »

Ok short and sweet one for the mechanics stuff.

So we know the setup exactly from the roles everyone has claimed. Both you and I have had no one to counterclaim us, so we are confirmed town. There is a 0% chance either of us is scum.

I claimed Detective (who targets someone at night and gets the result of if they have killed or not killed)
Both of e and Faust claimed Jailkeeper (I think you know this one from your newbie game.)

Eevee, Robz, and schadd all claimed VT(vanilla townie).

So we know one of e and Faust is scum (because there is only one JK, so one of them is lying)

And we know two of the "VTs" is lying. Because the setup we are in only has one VT left alive.

"Scum" in this case is a traitor, who knew his mafia partners, but they didn't know him. A mafia goon, and a SK.

As the detective, I targeted schadd N1 and Faust N2 and got that neither of them had killed. But the problem with that is that the SK can choose one night to be investigation immune, so it is possible that schadd is still the SK even though I saw that he didn't kill. We know that the SK did actually kill N1 because mafia died. E is claiming that he JKd Faust both nights which would mean that he wouldn't have killed (assuming mafias kill was blocked N2 which might not even be the case. ), which means my results don't really say Faust is confirmed town.

Faust is saying he JKd Eevee both nights, which could explain that Eevee is the mafia goon and why we have only gotten one kill each night.

The problem with looking in to all these night actions is that there is no sure thing. I want to believe from my result that schadd is town, but it is possible that he used his investigation immunity N1. Otherwise, he can't be the SK.

Anyway, it means we just need to find the town in Robz, Eevee, schadd and lynch them today!  So just reread those three and rate them from townie still to scummiest.
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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1364 on: May 06, 2017, 11:31:23 am »

Why do you say the traitor is unrecruited?  It's still possible that the traitor was recruited N1 and then both SK and mafia shot Andrew
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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1365 on: May 06, 2017, 11:31:57 am »

Anyway, it means we just need to find the town in Robz, Eevee, schadd and lynch them today!
I advise against this course of action.
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Since the number of points is within a constant factor of the number of city quarters, in the long run we can get (4 - ε) ↑↑ n points in n turns for any ε > 0.

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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1366 on: May 06, 2017, 11:34:25 am »

Why do you say the traitor is unrecruited?  It's still possible that the traitor was recruited N1 and then both SK and mafia shot Andrew

Ah, okay, sure.
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faust

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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1367 on: May 06, 2017, 11:34:50 am »

Why do you say the traitor is unrecruited?  It's still possible that the traitor was recruited N1 and then both SK and mafia shot Andrew

Alternatively, the SK could have Commuted or something on N2.
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Since the number of points is within a constant factor of the number of city quarters, in the long run we can get (4 - ε) ↑↑ n points in n turns for any ε > 0.

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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1368 on: May 06, 2017, 11:36:33 am »

I should do that reads list schadd asked for. Will include kkrieg's pre-claim position for completeness.

Since SK and mafia reads are substantially different, I will give them separately. Scores will be x / y where x and y are number between 0 and 10. 10 means definitely [mafia for X/SK for y], 5 means neutral, 0 means definitely not that. Maybe it would make sense to include a separate Traitor category. Actually, with kkrieg's claim, we know that either Traitor knows Mafia or they don't know about each other. I don't think I will go through the trouble of separating these.

Well, here we go!

Robz888 - 4 / 7 [slightly unlikely to be mafia, mostly due to activity level and content, which I think would be higher then. It's good for an SK trying to stay under the radar a bit and to not get shot. Also mcmc at least has a connection to Robz, so that kill would make some sense.]
The_Wine_Merchant - 3 / 9 [I kinda doubt that mcmc and TWM would go for hard bussing. Reasons for being SK have been explained.]
schadd - 6 / 2 [Uncomfortable position for an SK - exposed and both likely to get lynched and nightkilled. As scum I could see him doing that more.]
Eevee - 8 / 2 [See Eevee reread; the way he treats the mcmc wagon is extremely suspicious, plus showing no interest to investigate that wagon today. I don't think SK!Eevee shoots mcmc.]
gkrieg13 - 3 / 4 [Overall townie read, but nothing stands out to make him obvtown. D1 suggests he's not mcmc's partner.]
AndrewisFTTW - 5 / 4 [Mostly neutral. Was slightly scummy on mcmc IIRC, but then later it seemed he didn't think about the setup at all, which he would have done as scum and as the SK.]
2.71828..... -  e / e ... no, just kidding. Similar though, maybe 4 / 4 [I cannot really speak to him, I think I need to reread. He's made a townie impression, but that's just based on tone.]
kkrieg - 6 / 7 [I thought that she had some kind of role without a partner. SK or Traitor made sense. Now she's town unless we get a counterclaim, which I sort of doubt.]

You should really work on those fakeclaims.

wait, I think I read this backwards.  reading is hard
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Robz888

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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1369 on: May 06, 2017, 11:38:22 am »

Why do you say the traitor is unrecruited?  It's still possible that the traitor was recruited N1 and then both SK and mafia shot Andrew

Alternatively, the SK could have Commuted or something on N2.

No. Don't we know it's the SK with 1shot investigation immunity and BP and something else?
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gkrieg13

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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1370 on: May 06, 2017, 11:38:43 am »

Anyway, it means we just need to find the town in Robz, Eevee, schadd and lynch them today!
I advise against this course of action.

Haha good thing I'm IC!
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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1371 on: May 06, 2017, 11:38:47 am »

Why do you say the traitor is unrecruited?  It's still possible that the traitor was recruited N1 and then both SK and mafia shot Andrew

Alternatively, the SK could have Commuted or something on N2.

No. Don't we know it's the SK with 1shot investigation immunity and BP and something else?

Something else = strongman
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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1372 on: May 06, 2017, 11:39:13 am »

Why do you say the traitor is unrecruited?  It's still possible that the traitor was recruited N1 and then both SK and mafia shot Andrew

Alternatively, the SK could have Commuted or something on N2.

No. Don't we know it's the SK with 1shot investigation immunity and BP and something else?

They can give up their kill to perform any PR
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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1373 on: May 06, 2017, 11:39:39 am »

Anyway, it means we just need to find the town in Robz, Eevee, schadd and lynch them today!
I advise against this course of action.

Haha good thing I'm IC!

Kkrieg, ignore the IC, who wants us to find the townie and kill them.
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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1374 on: May 06, 2017, 11:40:53 am »

Why do you say the traitor is unrecruited?  It's still possible that the traitor was recruited N1 and then both SK and mafia shot Andrew

Alternatively, the SK could have Commuted or something on N2.

No. Don't we know it's the SK with 1shot investigation immunity and BP and something else?

They can give up their kill to perform any PR

In addition to being JOAT?
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