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Author Topic: M98: Русская Mafia (Game over! Town won!)  (Read 54900 times)

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2.71828.....

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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #975 on: May 02, 2017, 12:56:19 am »

I think gkrieg is town due to his tunnelling of kkrieg, and schadd slightly scummier for his "we know the setup now" thing
I think that is a good point on gkrieg. I am just personally surprised he was (maybe possibly genuinely) wrong on my read.

I find that it is hard to fake being just plain wrong as scum. Assuming we don't get a counterclaim, then he was just that. Just plain wrong. And so was I, but I won't go calling myself am IC (yet).
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schadd

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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #976 on: May 02, 2017, 01:00:09 am »

hard to fake, maybe, but something scum actively doesn't want to do, probably yes
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I thought you thought it was a slip because I said 'Jake's partners' instead of 'Roadrunner7671.'
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schadd

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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #977 on: May 02, 2017, 01:00:58 am »

i mean you're kind of assuming scum is incapable of making cases on people, and i'm pretty sure i did that way back when
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I thought you thought it was a slip because I said 'Jake's partners' instead of 'Roadrunner7671.'
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faust

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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #978 on: May 02, 2017, 03:24:33 am »

I'm not sure how much this tells us about gkrieg. kkrieg would have been an easy lynch to push for scum, but it also makes sense for town!gkrieg - that's why it whould have been so easy.

Can we lynch TWM now?
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Since the number of points is within a constant factor of the number of city quarters, in the long run we can get (4 - ε) ↑↑ n points in n turns for any ε > 0.

faust

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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #979 on: May 02, 2017, 03:41:46 am »

I should do that reads list schadd asked for. Will include kkrieg's pre-claim position for completeness.

Since SK and mafia reads are substantially different, I will give them separately. Scores will be x / y where x and y are number between 0 and 10. 10 means definitely [mafia for X/SK for y], 5 means neutral, 0 means definitely not that. Maybe it would make sense to include a separate Traitor category. Actually, with kkrieg's claim, we know that either Traitor knows Mafia or they don't know about each other. I don't think I will go through the trouble of separating these.

Well, here we go!

Robz888 - 4 / 7 [slightly unlikely to be mafia, mostly due to activity level and content, which I think would be higher then. It's good for an SK trying to stay under the radar a bit and to not get shot. Also mcmc at least has a connection to Robz, so that kill would make some sense.]
The_Wine_Merchant - 3 / 9 [I kinda doubt that mcmc and TWM would go for hard bussing. Reasons for being SK have been explained.]
schadd - 6 / 2 [Uncomfortable position for an SK - exposed and both likely to get lynched and nightkilled. As scum I could see him doing that more.]
Eevee - 8 / 2 [See Eevee reread; the way he treats the mcmc wagon is extremely suspicious, plus showing no interest to investigate that wagon today. I don't think SK!Eevee shoots mcmc.]
gkrieg13 - 3 / 4 [Overall townie read, but nothing stands out to make him obvtown. D1 suggests he's not mcmc's partner.]
AndrewisFTTW - 5 / 4 [Mostly neutral. Was slightly scummy on mcmc IIRC, but then later it seemed he didn't think about the setup at all, which he would have done as scum and as the SK.]
2.71828..... -  e / e ... no, just kidding. Similar though, maybe 4 / 4 [I cannot really speak to him, I think I need to reread. He's made a townie impression, but that's just based on tone.]
kkrieg - 6 / 7 [I thought that she had some kind of role without a partner. SK or Traitor made sense. Now she's town unless we get a counterclaim, which I sort of doubt.]
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Since the number of points is within a constant factor of the number of city quarters, in the long run we can get (4 - ε) ↑↑ n points in n turns for any ε > 0.

LaLight

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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #980 on: May 02, 2017, 04:32:55 am »

Vote count 2.6
The_Wine_Merchant (3): faust, Eevee, kkrieg
faust (1): AndrewisFTTW
kkrieg (1): The_Wine_Merchant
Robz888 (1): gkrieg13
Not voting (3): schadd, 2,71828....., Robz888

With 9 alive it takes 5 to lynch. Day 2 ends Wednesday, 3rd of May at 4 am FT. This is in 24ish hours
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Wins: 14, 10
Losses: 10, 5, 1
Draws: 1
MVPs: 4
Mod/Co-mod: 18

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faust

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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #981 on: May 02, 2017, 05:16:39 am »

hmmmmm.  unvote until a counterclaim I guess. 

7. 1-shot Commuter, Jailkeeper, Detective; Traitor Knows Mafia + Serial Killer
or
1. Detective, 1-shot Commuter, Goon Cop; 1-shot Investigation Immune + Serial Killer

then.  If you are a PR not in that list, you may want to consider claiming.
Quick double-check since I didn't see anyone do that:

The remaining SK setup is:

6. Detective, Jailkeeper, Psychologist; Mafia Knows Traitor + Serial Killer

Which has a Psychologist that the two setups above don't have. So any Psychologists and 1-shot Commuters need to come out and claim now. I don't think it will happen, but if it does, it should happen now, not some time at LyLo.

There is a conspiracy theory in which there is no SK and scum!mcmc urges his partner kkrieg to shoot him to make her claim more believable. That would require mafia to know that there is no SK, because otherwise um it would be crazy foolhardy. Setups in which this is possible: Mafia has 1-shot investigation immune or 2-shot JOAT. 2-shot JOAT has an actual Commuter, 1-shot Investigation Immune can have a Pschyologist who can counterclaim Commuter. Okay, it's not possible.
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Since the number of points is within a constant factor of the number of city quarters, in the long run we can get (4 - ε) ↑↑ n points in n turns for any ε > 0.

The_Wine_Merchant

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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #982 on: May 02, 2017, 07:52:43 am »

Well back to Vote: faust
Logged
Wins: M91, M96, NM10, M98, M102, M105
Losses: M100, M103, M104, M109, M112

MVPs: M91, M96
Win percentage: 54.5 (6/11)

The_Wine_Merchant

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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #983 on: May 02, 2017, 08:01:59 am »

faust's reads above are crap. And not even just the one on me. His read on schadd is just bad.
Logged
Wins: M91, M96, NM10, M98, M102, M105
Losses: M100, M103, M104, M109, M112

MVPs: M91, M96
Win percentage: 54.5 (6/11)

faust

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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #984 on: May 02, 2017, 08:11:36 am »

faust's reads above are crap. And not even just the one on me. His read on schadd is just bad.
Your read is bad!
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Since the number of points is within a constant factor of the number of city quarters, in the long run we can get (4 - ε) ↑↑ n points in n turns for any ε > 0.

The_Wine_Merchant

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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #985 on: May 02, 2017, 08:27:10 am »

faust's reads above are crap. And not even just the one on me. His read on schadd is just bad.
Your read is bad!
Probably.
Logged
Wins: M91, M96, NM10, M98, M102, M105
Losses: M100, M103, M104, M109, M112

MVPs: M91, M96
Win percentage: 54.5 (6/11)

faust

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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #986 on: May 02, 2017, 08:29:50 am »

Wanna lynch Eevee? Just checking. I don't want to be the default lynch if we don't manage to lynch you.
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Since the number of points is within a constant factor of the number of city quarters, in the long run we can get (4 - ε) ↑↑ n points in n turns for any ε > 0.

faust

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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #987 on: May 02, 2017, 08:30:25 am »

Why is Andrew even voting for me? I think there was a reason somewhere...
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Since the number of points is within a constant factor of the number of city quarters, in the long run we can get (4 - ε) ↑↑ n points in n turns for any ε > 0.

The_Wine_Merchant

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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #988 on: May 02, 2017, 08:30:51 am »

Wanna lynch Eevee? Just checking. I don't want to be the default lynch if we don't manage to lynch you.
Probably not today
Logged
Wins: M91, M96, NM10, M98, M102, M105
Losses: M100, M103, M104, M109, M112

MVPs: M91, M96
Win percentage: 54.5 (6/11)

The_Wine_Merchant

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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #989 on: May 02, 2017, 08:31:11 am »

Why is Andrew even voting for me? I think there was a reason somewhere...
He liked my reasons for voting you I think
Logged
Wins: M91, M96, NM10, M98, M102, M105
Losses: M100, M103, M104, M109, M112

MVPs: M91, M96
Win percentage: 54.5 (6/11)

faust

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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #990 on: May 02, 2017, 08:45:15 am »

Why is Andrew even voting for me? I think there was a reason somewhere...
He liked my reasons for voting you I think
I think I forgot your reasons too. I only remember what e has said about SK hunting, but I don't think that was your angle.
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Since the number of points is within a constant factor of the number of city quarters, in the long run we can get (4 - ε) ↑↑ n points in n turns for any ε > 0.

faust

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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #991 on: May 02, 2017, 08:56:40 am »

I found Andrew's reasons at least:

faust reminds me of me as scum, constantly reminding everyone of possible edge cases and really pushing TWM and at the very least hinting that everything he says is scummy. Whether that's scum indicative or not of faust I don't know, but it reads scum to me.

Which I think I addressed but clearly not in a manner that was sufficiently convincing.

I get that the thing is appealing if Andrew truly thinks I look the same way he does as scum. But we are different people, and pointing out edge cases is certainly not a scum tell for me.

I don't really get how pushing TWM hard is scummy. I think he's scum, so I push him. Applying pressure hopefully tells me even more about him. Scum has no reason to expose themselves like this; it's reasonable enough to think that the SK, after killing a scum early, would try to gun for town next; that's actually a plus for the mafia. The only reason for scum to push is to divert attention, and what I've been doing has certainly not achieved that.
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Since the number of points is within a constant factor of the number of city quarters, in the long run we can get (4 - ε) ↑↑ n points in n turns for any ε > 0.

2.71828.....

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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #992 on: May 02, 2017, 10:19:33 am »

Did my Robz reread, and I think he is town.  There is a chance that he could be the SK, but I don't think so.  The biggest aspect of Robz game that makes me think he is town is his general lack of reads on D1.  As scum in M88 he was the first to vote on 3 different wagons, garnering votes on all of them and really working the D1 lynch.

In this game we have this:
This just feels like genuinely busy mcmc to me, him actually being what he says makes a lot of sense. The problem is I don't have a great alternative candidate...

He knows who he doesn't want to lynch, but has nothing to offer in exchange.  This is slightly different than

I have been forced to accept that lackluster play is a town tell for you.

But it almost falls in the same category. 

Either way, I don't think that Robz is scum here
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Man. I had four strips of bacon yesterday. Was one automatically undercooked, one automatically overcooked? No, let's put a stop to that right here, all four strips were excellent.

2.71828.....

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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #993 on: May 02, 2017, 10:22:16 am »

With that being said, this is where I am at:

Town: e, kkrieg
Town reads: Robz, gkrieg, TWM
Nullish reads: Eevee, schadd, Andrew
Scum reads: faust
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Man. I had four strips of bacon yesterday. Was one automatically undercooked, one automatically overcooked? No, let's put a stop to that right here, all four strips were excellent.

Robz888

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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #994 on: May 02, 2017, 10:22:24 am »

I associate less active Eevee with scum!Eevee, which is I think what's tipping me toward thinking Eevee is scum all of a sudden. I understand it's a busy time for him IRL though.
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I have been forced to accept that lackluster play is a town tell for you.

AndrewisFTTW

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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #995 on: May 02, 2017, 10:34:15 am »

I found Andrew's reasons at least:

faust reminds me of me as scum, constantly reminding everyone of possible edge cases and really pushing TWM and at the very least hinting that everything he says is scummy. Whether that's scum indicative or not of faust I don't know, but it reads scum to me.

Which I think I addressed but clearly not in a manner that was sufficiently convincing.

I get that the thing is appealing if Andrew truly thinks I look the same way he does as scum. But we are different people, and pointing out edge cases is certainly not a scum tell for me.

I don't really get how pushing TWM hard is scummy. I think he's scum, so I push him. Applying pressure hopefully tells me even more about him. Scum has no reason to expose themselves like this; it's reasonable enough to think that the SK, after killing a scum early, would try to gun for town next; that's actually a plus for the mafia. The only reason for scum to push is to divert attention, and what I've been doing has certainly not achieved that.

Yeah well, it's more of a gut read right now. But I don't see TWM killing mcmc last night. I do see you doing it and then blaming TWM for it, however.
Logged
Wins: M39, M41, M48, M96, M97, M102, M105
Losses: M40, M43, M45, BM17 (?), RMM13, RMM17, RMM20, NM7, ZM18, M100, M109
MVPs: M97
Mod/Co-Mod: M46, M49, M52, NM10

2.71828.....

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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #996 on: May 02, 2017, 10:39:30 am »

Eevee reread.  I think he is scum.  There are two different points I have

1) The mcmc point
weird is towny.

robz is towny

mcmc scummy

got to give town points for faust for leading

why is andrew brought up so often as a viable lynch without accompanying vote movement?

Oh ma less than 24 hours.

Totally totally no idea who to vote for. Weekend deadlines are bad for town!

Granted, these are a couple days apart and reads develop, and unfortunately Eevee never posted after the mcmc wagon took off (no matter how short-lived it was), but going from mcmc being your only scum read to not having any clue who to lynch is slightly suspicious

2)  The "call me scum" point
why so loose with bringing up buddying? scum narrative could be maintaining the idea in people's head that that's a scummy behavior eevee often exhibits, hoping someone will bite.

just seems weird you'd bring it up. my two leading causes of daytime death are buddying and hedginess, someone who wouldn't mind seeing me lynched might want to drop those buzzwords around me hoping someone else starts painting me scummy for them. kind of like trying to get two people to fight while you slowly walk away to watch from afar.

(going to sleep now!)

Both of these posts have eevee explaining things about his playstyle that he might do as scum.  Or be accused of doing and get lynched for it as town.  Instructing people on how they should go after him if they want to lynch him.  I think this is the stronger of the two points against eevee.

Lets see how it goes

vote: eevee
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Man. I had four strips of bacon yesterday. Was one automatically undercooked, one automatically overcooked? No, let's put a stop to that right here, all four strips were excellent.

Robz888

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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #997 on: May 02, 2017, 10:52:53 am »

Vote: Eevee
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I have been forced to accept that lackluster play is a town tell for you.

The_Wine_Merchant

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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #998 on: May 02, 2017, 10:58:18 am »

I would rather Vote: Robz, but vote: faust is still preferable
Logged
Wins: M91, M96, NM10, M98, M102, M105
Losses: M100, M103, M104, M109, M112

MVPs: M91, M96
Win percentage: 54.5 (6/11)

LaLight

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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #999 on: May 02, 2017, 11:00:39 am »

Vote count 2.7
The_Wine_Merchant (3): faust, Eevee, kkrieg
faust (2): AndrewisFTTW, The_Wine_Merchant
Robz888 (1): gkrieg13
Eevee (2): 2,71828....., Robz888
Not voting (1): schadd

With 9 alive it takes 5 to lynch. Day 2 ends Wednesday, 3rd of May at 4 am FT. This is in 15 hours
Logged
Wins: 14, 10
Losses: 10, 5, 1
Draws: 1
MVPs: 4
Mod/Co-mod: 18

I always have a limited access to forum on weekends.
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