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Author Topic: M98: Русская Mafia (Game over! Town won!)  (Read 25788 times)

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2.71828.....

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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #800 on: April 29, 2017, 03:22:57 pm »

Actually, my read on kkrieg was really one that she is not-town more than a specific goon/traitor/sk. She fits into your "newbie kills mcmc" mold very well, and when TWM mentioned it is really when I thought she could be. She may actually be the traitor who knows mafia, which would make sense with her mcmc hedge on D1. She was scum for me D1 before mcmc ever factored into things.

But you are definitely goon material. I don't think your SK-hunting is indicative of you being sk or really traitor, I think you are the last goon.

So I am actually SCUM hunting, and certain scum fall in certain categories. You are SK-hunting. Which is scummy.
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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #801 on: April 29, 2017, 03:32:22 pm »

I would also love if someone switched off TWM. We really don't need kkrieg swooping in and lynching him before we get around to lynching her.
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schadd

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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #802 on: April 29, 2017, 03:52:24 pm »

unvote but like why do you think she would do that
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The_Wine_Merchant

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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #803 on: April 29, 2017, 03:53:32 pm »

Plus 2.7 is super townie for other reasons. Could be traitor. That is it.
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Wins: M91, M96, NM10, M98, M102, M105
Losses: M100, M103, M104, M109, M112

MVPs: M91, M96
Win percentage: 54.5 (6/11)

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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #804 on: April 29, 2017, 03:55:33 pm »

Town reads:
The_Wine_Merchant
schadd

Middle of the road/need to reread:
Eevee
gkrieg13
AndrewisFTTW
Robz888

Scum:
faust
kkrieg
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Man. I had four strips of bacon yesterday. Was one automatically undercooked, one automatically overcooked? No, let's put a stop to that right here, all four strips were excellent.

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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #805 on: April 29, 2017, 03:58:12 pm »

unvote but like why do you think she would do that

I don't actually think she would, but it was possible, now it is not.
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Man. I had four strips of bacon yesterday. Was one automatically undercooked, one automatically overcooked? No, let's put a stop to that right here, all four strips were excellent.

faust

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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #806 on: April 29, 2017, 04:00:55 pm »

Actually, my read on kkrieg was really one that she is not-town more than a specific goon/traitor/sk. She fits into your "newbie kills mcmc" mold very well, and when TWM mentioned it is really when I thought she could be. She may actually be the traitor who knows mafia, which would make sense with her mcmc hedge on D1. She was scum for me D1 before mcmc ever factored into things.

But you are definitely goon material. I don't think your SK-hunting is indicative of you being sk or really traitor, I think you are the last goon.

So I am actually SCUM hunting, and certain scum fall in certain categories. You are SK-hunting. Which is scummy.
Except there is no difference between what we do.

I looked at everything that happens, and I am pushing for the player who is most likely to flip scum. That this player is much more likely to be SK than other scum is just coincidence.
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Since the number of points is within a constant factor of the number of city quarters, in the long run we can get (4 - ε) ↑↑ n points in n turns for any ε > 0.

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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #807 on: April 29, 2017, 04:12:09 pm »

So rereading mcmc. I'm positive that we can figure this out.

Okay, so he is pushing pretty hard for TWM.

This is interesting interaction:
mcmc, do you think i think you're town or scum?


will ask again later

I think you think I'm town.
schadd, why did you ask mcmc?

There is more TWM tunnelling. This starts to look pretty bad for him.

I would be open to lynching andrew, twm, 2.7. kkrieg, eevee, awaclus.
Is mcmc's partner in here? Arguably yes. But it's a big list, so eh.

Okay, I feel like there isn't really a lot to take away in terms of partner reads, but it feels like TWM is the only one with a motive to kill mcmc.

Another interesting data point would be the mcmc wagon.

This is the mcmc wagon history.

gkrieg, TWM
[these two have been voting mcmc for a while through D1.

I'd be ok with Awaclus or Andrew

kkrieg does not mention mcmc at all here. Scummy.


I would go for E if the votes were there. If not I'll stick with Andrew. Awaclus is also fine. This does not feel like scum mcmc to me.
Also not too good, but it feels unlikely that both scum would claim VT on D1.

Andrew & TWM move towards Awaclus.

gkrieg votes for Andrew, and then unvotes, thus removing his vote from mcmc in a non-obvious way. That's quite crafty if intentional.

schadd votes mcmc. Town points here. Then gkrieg switches back (ok, I suppose the above was not intentioal), Then Awaclus.

If I'm seeing correctly, this is the mcmc wagon at peak:

TWM, schadd, gkrieg, Awaclus

Robz continues to push off of mcmc. Ironically, TWM takes the lead on destroying the mcmc wagon. His is the deciding vote. The others on mcmc stay there.

So schadd and gkrieg definitely look townie (or, I guess, non-SK-y). Mild scum read on Robz, stronger on kkrieg and Andrew.

From the very beginning you are trying to figure out who would kill mcmc, not who would be mcmc's partner. You cast suspicion elsewhere, and have reaffirmed suspicions, but the only thing you care about in the end is that you think TWM has motive to kill. I think the points you make against kkrieg are far better than the conclusion that TWM is SK. But you aren't hunting for a partner. You are hunting for a SK
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Man. I had four strips of bacon yesterday. Was one automatically undercooked, one automatically overcooked? No, let's put a stop to that right here, all four strips were excellent.

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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #808 on: April 29, 2017, 04:29:00 pm »

Also, sitting in the back of a vehicle for 6 hours with nothing to do but check f.ds does wonders for your post count. If only the forum wasn't being so temperamental.
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Man. I had four strips of bacon yesterday. Was one automatically undercooked, one automatically overcooked? No, let's put a stop to that right here, all four strips were excellent.

Robz888

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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #809 on: April 29, 2017, 04:45:39 pm »

I'm having a lot of trouble with the forums right now, but E has made a really good case for switching from TWM to kkrieg.
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faust

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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #810 on: April 29, 2017, 05:09:25 pm »

From the very beginning you are trying to figure out who would kill mcmc, not who would be mcmc's partner. You cast suspicion elsewhere, and have reaffirmed suspicions, but the only thing you care about in the end is that you think TWM has motive to kill.
This is all just wrong. You have bolded some stuff in my post, but that doesn't allow for the conclusions ou're drawing here at all. I reread mcmc; the only really noticable he's done is tunnel TWM. Just because you don't think I'm right in my suspicion of TWM doesn't mean I've been SK hunting.
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Since the number of points is within a constant factor of the number of city quarters, in the long run we can get (4 - ε) ↑↑ n points in n turns for any ε > 0.

faust

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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #811 on: April 29, 2017, 05:11:47 pm »

I mean you say it yourslef; you think the conclusions I draw on kkrieg are better than those on TWM. I don't. Just because we disagree on this doesn't make me scum.
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Since the number of points is within a constant factor of the number of city quarters, in the long run we can get (4 - ε) ↑↑ n points in n turns for any ε > 0.

gkrieg13

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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #812 on: April 29, 2017, 07:32:46 pm »

Forum is completely unusable at my house.
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The_Wine_Merchant

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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #813 on: April 29, 2017, 08:17:33 pm »

Forum is completely unusable at my house.
Everywhere
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Wins: M91, M96, NM10, M98, M102, M105
Losses: M100, M103, M104, M109, M112

MVPs: M91, M96
Win percentage: 54.5 (6/11)

kkrieg

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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #814 on: April 29, 2017, 11:46:14 pm »

Definitely realized I could have hammered TWM earlier today but I didn't.

She calls things scummy but is very hesitant to cast a vote for the cases she presents. The hedge factor is strong and scummy with kkrieg
This is true. I have commitment problems and don't want to be wrong.

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The_Wine_Merchant

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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #815 on: April 30, 2017, 12:29:39 am »

vote: kkrieg
PS faust; this time I am voting her because i find her suspicious
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Wins: M91, M96, NM10, M98, M102, M105
Losses: M100, M103, M104, M109, M112

MVPs: M91, M96
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LaLight

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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #816 on: April 30, 2017, 01:55:40 am »

Vote count 2.4
The_Wine_Merchant (3): faust, Robz888, Eevee
faust (1): AndrewisFTTW
kkrieg (3): gkrieg13, 2,71828....., The_Wine_Merchant
Not voting (2): kkrieg, schadd

With 9 alive it takes 5 to lynch. Day 2 ends Wednesday, 3rd of May at 4 am FT. If the forum continues to be so slow, i will prolong the deadline.
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faust

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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #817 on: April 30, 2017, 02:42:28 pm »

So does nobody have something to say anymore?

I'm going to do an Eevee reread since I don't remember anything about that guy.
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Since the number of points is within a constant factor of the number of city quarters, in the long run we can get (4 - ε) ↑↑ n points in n turns for any ε > 0.

Robz888

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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #818 on: April 30, 2017, 02:47:39 pm »

Why is kkrieg not voting for TWM out of sheer self-preservation? Is she enough that she doesn't know to do that?
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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #819 on: April 30, 2017, 02:47:52 pm »

I'm trying to decide if that says anything about her.
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Robz888

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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #820 on: April 30, 2017, 02:48:29 pm »

So does nobody have something to say anymore?

I'm going to do an Eevee reread since I don't remember anything about that guy.

I should probably re-read too. Eevee is flying super duper under the radar right now.
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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #821 on: April 30, 2017, 02:50:44 pm »

So does nobody have something to say anymore?

I'm going to do an Eevee reread since I don't remember anything about that guy.

I feel all talked out until people have had a chance to respond to what was said between faust, TWM, and myself
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faust

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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #822 on: April 30, 2017, 03:19:38 pm »

D1 Eevee does a lot of conversation, some poking at people's opinions, other stuff is just banter. In terms of Eevee's own opinions there is very little.

The first vote is jumping on e for lurking. He has a scumread on mcmc, that's interesting. Town on Robz, TWM, me.

The back and forth with schadd... I want to say not partners, but well that does not tell us anything really.

Eevee keeps his vote on e for a long time even though he expressed a scumread on mcmc. There may be something here. ... yes, the vote stays there until the end.

This is Eevee's last D1 post:
Awaclus would be a total "guess" lynch for me, he has played just like I'd expect him to play day 1 either alignment. I think he is generally hard to townread with certainty, but conversely also hard to pinpoint as scum. Especially this early, this is just totally what I think both scum and town versions of Awaclus would look like.
At that point there are already two votes on mcmc, Eevee's only expressed scumread. That is... bad. And then Eevee is just gone, without doing anything worthwhile. It looks to me like he was scared of committing.

Though timing is relevant. Eevee's my time zone, so his final post was 1:30 am. Reasonable enough time to go to sleep. But then why did he not say something or switch his vote? One hour later, the mcmc wagon picks up. At this point it is very likely that mafia!Eevee would be afraid of either lynching his partner or incriminating himself and thus disappears.

Okay, starting D2!

He goes with my TWM suspicion, which is unfortunately not really an alignment-tell.

Actually, I guess the better question is, how do you think they'd decide who to shoot if not like that? Why else would they have shot a claimed VT?
Actually, he's pushing the angle pretty hard, which makes sense for mafia!Eevee to get himself out of the spotlight. While people talk about the nightkill, they don't talk about the end of D1, and that's how Eevee could get suspected.

Okay, so that's pretty much much. Going into D2, Eevee said this:
Just phone access now, but mcmc being the almost-lynch of yesterday should be helpful in determining the second mafia at least. Like, probably not e based on his voting, so my suspicion on yesterday was wrong on that at least (again, probably).
Yet he does never do anything even resembling looking for mcmc's partner and instead focuses solely in the TWM thing. All this is quite scummy. Like right now I think Eevee is a better lynch target than kkrieg, but not convinced he's better than TWM.

I'd add that Eevee is unlikely to be SK though; his confusion about the nightkill looks real enough.
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Since the number of points is within a constant factor of the number of city quarters, in the long run we can get (4 - ε) ↑↑ n points in n turns for any ε > 0.

kkrieg

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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #823 on: April 30, 2017, 03:25:18 pm »

Why is kkrieg not voting for TWM out of sheer self-preservation? Is she enough that she doesn't know to do that?
1. I don't need to vote in self-preservation. I am town/ don't think I will get lynched/ don't feel a need to be defensive.

2. Also didn't vote for TWM because I think people would read me as desperate and scummy for doing so.
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The_Wine_Merchant

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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #824 on: April 30, 2017, 04:10:24 pm »

Do you think I am scummy? If you do, you should vote for me. Commit to that read.
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Wins: M91, M96, NM10, M98, M102, M105
Losses: M100, M103, M104, M109, M112

MVPs: M91, M96
Win percentage: 54.5 (6/11)
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