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Author Topic: M98: Русская Mafia (Game over! Town won!)  (Read 54898 times)

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The_Wine_Merchant

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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #775 on: April 29, 2017, 02:10:05 pm »

vote: faust
Logged
Wins: M91, M96, NM10, M98, M102, M105
Losses: M100, M103, M104, M109, M112

MVPs: M91, M96
Win percentage: 54.5 (6/11)

faust

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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #776 on: April 29, 2017, 02:13:36 pm »

kkrieg's wagon is wayyyyyy townier than TWM's.  Robz and schadd are null at best.
Well you are town, TWM is scum and e is null, so it kinda cancels out.
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Since the number of points is within a constant factor of the number of city quarters, in the long run we can get (4 - ε) ↑↑ n points in n turns for any ε > 0.

faust

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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #777 on: April 29, 2017, 02:16:58 pm »

vote: faust
What's up with the switching around?
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Since the number of points is within a constant factor of the number of city quarters, in the long run we can get (4 - ε) ↑↑ n points in n turns for any ε > 0.

The_Wine_Merchant

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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #778 on: April 29, 2017, 02:19:42 pm »

vote: faust
What's up with the switching around?
I thought maybe that kkrieg had a better chance of being lynched than you. Realized that is futile and now just want my vote to be on you at the end of day so people will better remember to be suspicious of you when I flip town.
Logged
Wins: M91, M96, NM10, M98, M102, M105
Losses: M100, M103, M104, M109, M112

MVPs: M91, M96
Win percentage: 54.5 (6/11)

The_Wine_Merchant

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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #779 on: April 29, 2017, 02:20:10 pm »

I don't really find kkrieg suspicious, but she is a better lynch than me.
Logged
Wins: M91, M96, NM10, M98, M102, M105
Losses: M100, M103, M104, M109, M112

MVPs: M91, M96
Win percentage: 54.5 (6/11)

faust

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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #780 on: April 29, 2017, 02:21:25 pm »

1) his initial townread on me from D1 was not something that I think he does as scum. I had made a few posts, said a few things, and he comes out saying I am 100% town. Ok, not quite like that, but I don't think scum!TWM reads me quite like that.

2) the way he entered into D2 and got suspicion and stuff felt very much like how I post sometimes as town when I feel like everything I have done makes me obv!town. I usually do the whole claim IC thing even though I am not, but his posts have the feel of someone who thinks they can post with impunity and there is no way town would ever lynch them. Except town does lynch them.
Okay, that's something I can work with.

1) I don't remember the particular incident, but do you think SK!TWM would have played it different from mafia!TWM? I mean usually it's pretty difficult to notice the difference.

2) I never got the feeling from TWM that he thought there's no way town would lynch him. He seemed pretty aware of that possibility the whole time. The only thing I can remember is posting something about how he thought the flip made him townie in his very first D2 post. I am not sure where you get that vibe from otherwise.
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Since the number of points is within a constant factor of the number of city quarters, in the long run we can get (4 - ε) ↑↑ n points in n turns for any ε > 0.

faust

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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #781 on: April 29, 2017, 02:22:50 pm »

vote: faust
What's up with the switching around?
I thought maybe that kkrieg had a better chance of being lynched than you. Realized that is futile and now just want my vote to be on you at the end of day so people will better remember to be suspicious of you when I flip town.
Is that a VT claim?
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Since the number of points is within a constant factor of the number of city quarters, in the long run we can get (4 - ε) ↑↑ n points in n turns for any ε > 0.

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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #782 on: April 29, 2017, 02:24:09 pm »

So rereading mcmc. I'm positive that we can figure this out.

Okay, so he is pushing pretty hard for TWM.

This is interesting interaction:
mcmc, do you think i think you're town or scum?


will ask again later

I think you think I'm town.
schadd, why did you ask mcmc?

There is more TWM tunnelling. This starts to look pretty bad for him.

I would be open to lynching andrew, twm, 2.7. kkrieg, eevee, awaclus.
Is mcmc's partner in here? Arguably yes. But it's a big list, so eh.

Okay, I feel like there isn't really a lot to take away in terms of partner reads, but it feels like TWM is the only one with a motive to kill mcmc.

Another interesting data point would be the mcmc wagon.

This is the mcmc wagon history.

gkrieg, TWM
[these two have been voting mcmc for a while through D1.

I'd be ok with Awaclus or Andrew
kkrieg does not mention mcmc at all here. Scummy.

I would go for E if the votes were there. If not I'll stick with Andrew. Awaclus is also fine. This does not feel like scum mcmc to me.
Also not too good, but it feels unlikely that both scum would claim VT on D1.

Andrew & TWM move towards Awaclus.

gkrieg votes for Andrew, and then unvotes, thus removing his vote from mcmc in a non-obvious way. That's quite crafty if intentional.

schadd votes mcmc. Town points here. Then gkrieg switches back (ok, I suppose the above was not intentioal), Then Awaclus.

If I'm seeing correctly, this is the mcmc wagon at peak:

TWM, schadd, gkrieg, Awaclus

Robz continues to push off of mcmc. Ironically, TWM takes the lead on destroying the mcmc wagon. His is the deciding vote. The others on mcmc stay there.

So schadd and gkrieg definitely look townie (or, I guess, non-SK-y). Mild scum read on Robz, stronger on kkrieg and Andrew.

I just reread TWM and this case feels really fabricated to me. First of all, TWM was voting awaclus much more throughout d1 than he was voting mcmc. He had a clear scum read on both, and as the day was nearing the end he landed on Awaclus. Saying he left mcmc because he felt like the lynch would land there is just false
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Man. I had four strips of bacon yesterday. Was one automatically undercooked, one automatically overcooked? No, let's put a stop to that right here, all four strips were excellent.

The_Wine_Merchant

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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #783 on: April 29, 2017, 02:24:19 pm »

vote: faust
What's up with the switching around?
I thought maybe that kkrieg had a better chance of being lynched than you. Realized that is futile and now just want my vote to be on you at the end of day so people will better remember to be suspicious of you when I flip town.
Is that a VT claim?
No.
Logged
Wins: M91, M96, NM10, M98, M102, M105
Losses: M100, M103, M104, M109, M112

MVPs: M91, M96
Win percentage: 54.5 (6/11)

faust

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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #784 on: April 29, 2017, 02:25:30 pm »

I don't really find kkrieg suspicious, but she is a better lynch than me.
And yet you voted for her specifically in response to one of her posts. That does not look like you just wanted slef-preservation; it looks like something in that post made you think she's scummy.
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Since the number of points is within a constant factor of the number of city quarters, in the long run we can get (4 - ε) ↑↑ n points in n turns for any ε > 0.

The_Wine_Merchant

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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #785 on: April 29, 2017, 02:26:19 pm »

Yeah I left the mcmc wagon cause I got fooled by his claim post and felt others saw it similarly and thought I had something better in awaclus late in the day
Logged
Wins: M91, M96, NM10, M98, M102, M105
Losses: M100, M103, M104, M109, M112

MVPs: M91, M96
Win percentage: 54.5 (6/11)

The_Wine_Merchant

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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #786 on: April 29, 2017, 02:27:13 pm »

I don't really find kkrieg suspicious, but she is a better lynch than me.
And yet you voted for her specifically in response to one of her posts. That does not look like you just wanted slef-preservation; it looks like something in that post made you think she's scummy.
Sorry I made it look that way. I didn't realize it would be construed that way.

I have asked others to show why she was suspicious, but those haven't responded.
Logged
Wins: M91, M96, NM10, M98, M102, M105
Losses: M100, M103, M104, M109, M112

MVPs: M91, M96
Win percentage: 54.5 (6/11)

The_Wine_Merchant

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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #787 on: April 29, 2017, 02:28:57 pm »

Oh.i voted that way cause I am on iPad and it is easer to reply by quoting than scrolling up or down to the reply button.

There were posts inbetween the Top and bottom between her post. Sorry.
Logged
Wins: M91, M96, NM10, M98, M102, M105
Losses: M100, M103, M104, M109, M112

MVPs: M91, M96
Win percentage: 54.5 (6/11)

The_Wine_Merchant

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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #788 on: April 29, 2017, 02:30:06 pm »

Why do I feel like whatever I did there Faust would have found it scummy?
Logged
Wins: M91, M96, NM10, M98, M102, M105
Losses: M100, M103, M104, M109, M112

MVPs: M91, M96
Win percentage: 54.5 (6/11)

faust

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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #789 on: April 29, 2017, 02:30:11 pm »

I just reread TWM and this case feels really fabricated to me. First of all, TWM was voting awaclus much more throughout d1 than he was voting mcmc. He had a clear scum read on both, and as the day was nearing the end he landed on Awaclus. Saying he left mcmc because he felt like the lynch would land there is just false
Not sure why you're quoting that whole post from me as if responding to a "case" (it was not a case) and then all you really respond to is half a sentence from it...

Anyway I don't know why you are even picking this. It's not why I am voting for TWM.
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Since the number of points is within a constant factor of the number of city quarters, in the long run we can get (4 - ε) ↑↑ n points in n turns for any ε > 0.

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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #790 on: April 29, 2017, 02:31:41 pm »

The first time TWM votes mcmc is 24 hours prior to deadline. Before that he was all about awaclus. He then switches back to awaclus, back to mcmc, then back to awaclus.

Scum does not do that D1 with a partner. Maybe make a case for SK or traitor, but I just don't see that situation with the rest of his play (outside of end of D1)
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faust

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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #791 on: April 29, 2017, 02:31:57 pm »

Why do I feel like whatever I did there Faust would have found it scummy?
I have no idea. You have to admit that for any objective observer it would have to look like you voted for kkrieg as a reaction to that post, no?
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Since the number of points is within a constant factor of the number of city quarters, in the long run we can get (4 - ε) ↑↑ n points in n turns for any ε > 0.

faust

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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #792 on: April 29, 2017, 02:32:45 pm »

Scum does not do that D1 with a partner. Maybe make a case for SK or traitor, but I just don't see that situation with the rest of his play (outside of end of D1)
I have a feeling that so far you have not read a single one of my posts.
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Since the number of points is within a constant factor of the number of city quarters, in the long run we can get (4 - ε) ↑↑ n points in n turns for any ε > 0.

The_Wine_Merchant

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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #793 on: April 29, 2017, 02:35:45 pm »

Why do I feel like whatever I did there Faust would have found it scummy?
I have no idea. You have to admit that for any objective observer it would have to look like you voted for kkrieg as a reaction to that post, no?
Sure. But once hearing that I did not suspect her I think an objective observer could easily conclude that I in fact didn't.
Logged
Wins: M91, M96, NM10, M98, M102, M105
Losses: M100, M103, M104, M109, M112

MVPs: M91, M96
Win percentage: 54.5 (6/11)

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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #794 on: April 29, 2017, 02:37:04 pm »

Scum does not do that D1 with a partner. Maybe make a case for SK or traitor, but I just don't see that situation with the rest of his play (outside of end of D1)
I have a feeling that so far you have not read a single one of my posts.

Have you read a single one of TWM's?
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Man. I had four strips of bacon yesterday. Was one automatically undercooked, one automatically overcooked? No, let's put a stop to that right here, all four strips were excellent.

The_Wine_Merchant

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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #795 on: April 29, 2017, 02:38:12 pm »

Scum does not do that D1 with a partner. Maybe make a case for SK or traitor, but I just don't see that situation with the rest of his play (outside of end of D1)
I have a feeling that so far you have not read a single one of my posts.
Faust thinks I am SK cause mcmc voted for me and that I must have felt sort of newbie anxiety about that and killed him ignoring that he had claimed VT and can't imagine that anyone else could have any reason to kill him.
Logged
Wins: M91, M96, NM10, M98, M102, M105
Losses: M100, M103, M104, M109, M112

MVPs: M91, M96
Win percentage: 54.5 (6/11)

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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #796 on: April 29, 2017, 02:38:46 pm »

I don't really find kkrieg suspicious, but she is a better lynch than me.
And yet you voted for her specifically in response to one of her posts. That does not look like you just wanted slef-preservation; it looks like something in that post made you think she's scummy.
Sorry I made it look that way. I didn't realize it would be construed that way.

I have asked others to show why she was suspicious, but those haven't responded.

She calls things scummy but is very hesitant to cast a vote for the cases she presents. The hedge factor is strong and scummy with kkrieg
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Man. I had four strips of bacon yesterday. Was one automatically undercooked, one automatically overcooked? No, let's put a stop to that right here, all four strips were excellent.

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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #797 on: April 29, 2017, 02:41:57 pm »

Scum feel like their biggest threat is the SK, and that is also how they can appear towny, if they help catch the SK.

Faust-> goon
kkrieg-> SK
Don't know the traitor
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Man. I had four strips of bacon yesterday. Was one automatically undercooked, one automatically overcooked? No, let's put a stop to that right here, all four strips were excellent.

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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #798 on: April 29, 2017, 02:44:11 pm »

Basically, faust is not scum hunting, he is SK-hunting. Which I think is scummy.

That being said, let's lynch the SK first, then we can lynch faust tomorrow
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Man. I had four strips of bacon yesterday. Was one automatically undercooked, one automatically overcooked? No, let's put a stop to that right here, all four strips were excellent.

faust

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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #799 on: April 29, 2017, 03:09:01 pm »

Basically, faust is not scum hunting, he is SK-hunting. Which I think is scummy.

That being said, let's lynch the SK first, then we can lynch faust tomorrow
You are SK-hunting! You're scummy. ..

Did I do that right?

Like you, I have ideas for who the other mafia is. Like you, I think lynching the SK is better. Not sure where the difference is here.

Also you jump from "faust is scummy because he thinks TWM is mafia" to "faust is scummy because he thinks TWM is the SK" without blinking. You didn't stop for a minute to think how this should change your read on me.

I am not talking as much about who mcmc's partner is because I think the evidence against TWM is much stronger than against Robz or kkrieg.
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Since the number of points is within a constant factor of the number of city quarters, in the long run we can get (4 - ε) ↑↑ n points in n turns for any ε > 0.
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