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Author Topic: M98: Русская Mafia (Game over! Town won!)  (Read 53916 times)

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Robz888

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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #625 on: April 26, 2017, 01:08:23 pm »

There is no way I would have played the way I did if I were SK. I would have stayed in the background, jumped quietly onto a wagon like 2.7's or Andrew's and brought zero to little attention to myself.

Imagine if I had stayed on mcmc and the lynch had gone through. I would be the primary, number 1, NK target for mafia and there would have ended my game. No that would have been too risky.

The SK is someone who stayed in the background and made little to zero waves. Certainly not me.

This doesn't acquit you as much as you think. If you were SK, and you had stayed on mcmc, and the lynch had gone through, you would have been a prime NK target... only if mcmc was mafia. But of course, that's not something you knew at the time you voted him, so you could have very well done it as SK and then been genuinely surprised (and relieved you weren't nightkilled) after mcmc's flip.
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I have been forced to accept that lackluster play is a town tell for you.

Robz888

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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #626 on: April 26, 2017, 01:10:01 pm »

Actually... was that a scumslip from TWM? The logic of what he posted only holds if he new mcmc's scum alignment ahead of time.
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The_Wine_Merchant

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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #627 on: April 26, 2017, 01:16:11 pm »

There is no way I would have played the way I did if I were SK. I would have stayed in the background, jumped quietly onto a wagon like 2.7's or Andrew's and brought zero to little attention to myself.

Imagine if I had stayed on mcmc and the lynch had gone through. I would be the primary, number 1, NK target for mafia and there would have ended my game. No that would have been too risky.

The SK is someone who stayed in the background and made little to zero waves. Certainly not me.

This doesn't acquit you as much as you think. If you were SK, and you had stayed on mcmc, and the lynch had gone through, you would have been a prime NK target... only if mcmc was mafia. But of course, that's not something you knew at the time you voted him, so you could have very well done it as SK and then been genuinely surprised (and relieved you weren't nightkilled) after mcmc's flip.
No. I get that. What I am saying is that it a risk I don't have to take. Or even if mcmc flips town. I don't want to appear in any way, shape or form to be a town leader and a good NK option.
Logged
Wins: M91, M96, NM10, M98, M102, M105
Losses: M100, M103, M104, M109, M112

MVPs: M91, M96
Win percentage: 54.5 (6/11)

The_Wine_Merchant

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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #628 on: April 26, 2017, 01:16:55 pm »

Actually... was that a scumslip from TWM? The logic of what he posted only holds if he new mcmc's scum alignment ahead of time.
You are putting logic onto me that I never had. Not sure if you are doing confirmation bias here or scum reaching.
Logged
Wins: M91, M96, NM10, M98, M102, M105
Losses: M100, M103, M104, M109, M112

MVPs: M91, M96
Win percentage: 54.5 (6/11)

Robz888

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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #629 on: April 26, 2017, 01:24:14 pm »

Actually... was that a scumslip from TWM? The logic of what he posted only holds if he new mcmc's scum alignment ahead of time.
You are putting logic onto me that I never had. Not sure if you are doing confirmation bias here or scum reaching.

You said this "imagine if I was SK and I had stayed on mcmc and the lynch had gone thru... I would have been the number 1 target for mafia." Because this would be a bad move for the SK, you therefore are not the SK.

This is really only a fear, though, if you know mcmc will flip scum, which isn't something you would have known at the time, unless you were his partner.
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The_Wine_Merchant

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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #630 on: April 26, 2017, 01:37:57 pm »

Actually... was that a scumslip from TWM? The logic of what he posted only holds if he new mcmc's scum alignment ahead of time.
You are putting logic onto me that I never had. Not sure if you are doing confirmation bias here or scum reaching.

You said this "imagine if I was SK and I had stayed on mcmc and the lynch had gone thru... I would have been the number 1 target for mafia." Because this would be a bad move for the SK, you therefore are not the SK.

This is really only a fear, though, if you know mcmc will flip scum, which isn't something you would have known at the time, unless you were his partner.
Except I am saying it now, when it is known that mcmc is scum. I am using speculative ideas to speculate about what I might have done as SK.

And you aren't addressing my actual point. And that is that SK would want to stay in the background and not risk being a prime NK target, regardless of whether or not mafia was flipped.
Logged
Wins: M91, M96, NM10, M98, M102, M105
Losses: M100, M103, M104, M109, M112

MVPs: M91, M96
Win percentage: 54.5 (6/11)

faust

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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #631 on: April 26, 2017, 02:53:37 pm »

Like every scum, the SK has to play to their town meta or they will be lynched. The cannot just stay in the background.
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Since the number of points is within a constant factor of the number of city quarters, in the long run we can get (4 - ε) ↑↑ n points in n turns for any ε > 0.

Eevee

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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #632 on: April 26, 2017, 03:01:13 pm »

Actually... was that a scumslip from TWM? The logic of what he posted only holds if he new mcmc's scum alignment ahead of time.
You are putting logic onto me that I never had. Not sure if you are doing confirmation bias here or scum reaching.

You said this "imagine if I was SK and I had stayed on mcmc and the lynch had gone thru... I would have been the number 1 target for mafia." Because this would be a bad move for the SK, you therefore are not the SK.

This is really only a fear, though, if you know mcmc will flip scum, which isn't something you would have known at the time, unless you were his partner.

I... think Robz is making sense here. That's a valid point, right?
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The_Wine_Merchant

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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #633 on: April 26, 2017, 03:01:19 pm »

Like every scum, the SK has to play to their town meta or they will be lynched. The cannot just stay in the background.
Which I have done in previous games to a certain extent perfectly fine.
Logged
Wins: M91, M96, NM10, M98, M102, M105
Losses: M100, M103, M104, M109, M112

MVPs: M91, M96
Win percentage: 54.5 (6/11)

Robz888

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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #634 on: April 26, 2017, 03:02:52 pm »

And you aren't addressing my actual point. And that is that SK would want to stay in the background and not risk being a prime NK target, regardless of whether or not mafia was flipped.

No, I don't think that's true. The logic here only holds for mcmc being mafia, as you noted, in your initial post, which made this presumption, and is I think quite possibly a scumslip.
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Robz888

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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #635 on: April 26, 2017, 03:03:01 pm »

Vote: TWM
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The_Wine_Merchant

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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #636 on: April 26, 2017, 03:27:13 pm »

And you aren't addressing my actual point. And that is that SK would want to stay in the background and not risk being a prime NK target, regardless of whether or not mafia was flipped.

No, I don't think that's true. The logic here only holds for mcmc being mafia, as you noted, in your initial post, which made this presumption, and is I think quite possibly a scumslip.
It isn't.
Logged
Wins: M91, M96, NM10, M98, M102, M105
Losses: M100, M103, M104, M109, M112

MVPs: M91, M96
Win percentage: 54.5 (6/11)

The_Wine_Merchant

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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #637 on: April 26, 2017, 03:29:16 pm »

So am I SK or mafia? I can't be both. Someone tell me my alignment please, cause I obviously don't know what it is. I thought I was town. But really smart, good mafia players are telling me otherwise and everyone seems to be agreeing with them even though they can't decide what they agree about.
Logged
Wins: M91, M96, NM10, M98, M102, M105
Losses: M100, M103, M104, M109, M112

MVPs: M91, M96
Win percentage: 54.5 (6/11)

AndrewisFTTW

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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #638 on: April 26, 2017, 03:41:02 pm »

Actually... was that a scumslip from TWM? The logic of what he posted only holds if he new mcmc's scum alignment ahead of time.
You are putting logic onto me that I never had. Not sure if you are doing confirmation bias here or scum reaching.

You said this "imagine if I was SK and I had stayed on mcmc and the lynch had gone thru... I would have been the number 1 target for mafia." Because this would be a bad move for the SK, you therefore are not the SK.

This is really only a fear, though, if you know mcmc will flip scum, which isn't something you would have known at the time, unless you were his partner.

I... think Robz is making sense here. That's a valid point, right?

Nope. Not seeing a scumslip anywhere. I think Robz is thinking about this too hard and is confusing himself.
Logged
Wins: M39, M41, M48, M96, M97, M102, M105
Losses: M40, M43, M45, BM17 (?), RMM13, RMM17, RMM20, NM7, ZM18, M100, M109
MVPs: M97
Mod/Co-Mod: M46, M49, M52, NM10

The_Wine_Merchant

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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #639 on: April 26, 2017, 03:43:54 pm »

Seriously?

Which is it:

Mafia that purposely bussed his partner hard on Day 1 (sure I left the wagon, but still that is a ballsy, risky move) and vice versa from him? This must be the case if Robz's scumslip theory is true.

Or SK that decided it was a good idea to play a really pro-active and pushing, aggressive style that would make me a high candidate for the mafia kill when it would have been easier and better play to stay back and low key? And then decided to kill off the same player that could still have been a good mislynch target the next day (from SK's perspective everyone is a mislynch target)?

OOOOOOOORRRRRRRRR

Town who played a pretty decent, but ultimately suboptimal Day 1 and an even worse Day 2, who is being framed by what is probably desperate mafia and/or SK who wants to take advantage of the situation along with other eager townies who are seeing only what they want to see?
Logged
Wins: M91, M96, NM10, M98, M102, M105
Losses: M100, M103, M104, M109, M112

MVPs: M91, M96
Win percentage: 54.5 (6/11)

The_Wine_Merchant

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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #640 on: April 26, 2017, 03:45:25 pm »

Also Andrew is town. SK or mafia would be clamoring all over this opportunity to get a mislynch here. Scum has zero reason to defend me here. Remember that when I am dead.

He could be the traitor thinking that I am the other mafia and wanting to save me from being lynched. But I guess that is probably a long shot.
Logged
Wins: M91, M96, NM10, M98, M102, M105
Losses: M100, M103, M104, M109, M112

MVPs: M91, M96
Win percentage: 54.5 (6/11)

AndrewisFTTW

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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #641 on: April 26, 2017, 03:46:21 pm »

I think TWM's point is if he was SK he would not draw attention to himself as much as he did yesterday with all the mcmc wagon stuff so as not to be a target for mafia. He used scum!Mcmc as an example but I think he meant regardless of the person's alignment he would want to lay low.
Logged
Wins: M39, M41, M48, M96, M97, M102, M105
Losses: M40, M43, M45, BM17 (?), RMM13, RMM17, RMM20, NM7, ZM18, M100, M109
MVPs: M97
Mod/Co-Mod: M46, M49, M52, NM10

AndrewisFTTW

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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #642 on: April 26, 2017, 03:51:29 pm »

TWM your point about saving mcmc as he could be a potential mislynch later, that's not really a point in your favor specifically. I think everyone would've had the same train of thought and would not've shot mcmc. Thus I think there was some other PR at work and maybe trying to tie a direct link from the mcmc kill to someone else is a little shoddy. And those who have been trying to do just that are a little scummy. Now would be a good time to look at the setup.
Logged
Wins: M39, M41, M48, M96, M97, M102, M105
Losses: M40, M43, M45, BM17 (?), RMM13, RMM17, RMM20, NM7, ZM18, M100, M109
MVPs: M97
Mod/Co-Mod: M46, M49, M52, NM10

The_Wine_Merchant

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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #643 on: April 26, 2017, 03:54:11 pm »

TWM your point about saving mcmc as he could be a potential mislynch later, that's not really a point in your favor specifically. I think everyone would've had the same train of thought and would not've shot mcmc. Thus I think there was some other PR at work and maybe trying to tie a direct link from the mcmc kill to someone else is a little shoddy. And those who have been trying to do just that are a little scummy. Now would be a good time to look at the setup.
I am not using it in my favor. I am using it as an argument for why faust wants to lynch me. He thinks that I shot mcmc because he was suspicious of me. His being a good mislynch I think would have over-rid that if I were actually the SK in this hypothetical scenario.
Logged
Wins: M91, M96, NM10, M98, M102, M105
Losses: M100, M103, M104, M109, M112

MVPs: M91, M96
Win percentage: 54.5 (6/11)

AndrewisFTTW

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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #644 on: April 26, 2017, 03:58:49 pm »

Request for vote count.
Logged
Wins: M39, M41, M48, M96, M97, M102, M105
Losses: M40, M43, M45, BM17 (?), RMM13, RMM17, RMM20, NM7, ZM18, M100, M109
MVPs: M97
Mod/Co-Mod: M46, M49, M52, NM10

LaLight

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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (PMs are out! N0)
« Reply #645 on: April 26, 2017, 04:31:40 pm »

Vote count 2.1
The_Wine_Merchant (3): faust, schadd, Robz888
faust (1): The_Wine_Merchant
kkrieg (1): gkrieg13
Not voting (4): Eevee, AndrewisFTTW, 2,71828....., kkrieg

With 9 alive it takes 5 to lynch. Day 1 ends Wednesday, 3rd of May at 4 am FT.
Logged
Wins: 14, 10
Losses: 10, 5, 1
Draws: 1
MVPs: 4
Mod/Co-mod: 18

I always have a limited access to forum on weekends.

2.71828.....

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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #646 on: April 26, 2017, 05:23:28 pm »

Vote: kkrieg

TWM is town, like I said D1
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AndrewisFTTW

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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #647 on: April 26, 2017, 05:53:18 pm »

Vote: kkrieg

TWM is town, like I said D1

What's the case on kkrieg?
Logged
Wins: M39, M41, M48, M96, M97, M102, M105
Losses: M40, M43, M45, BM17 (?), RMM13, RMM17, RMM20, NM7, ZM18, M100, M109
MVPs: M97
Mod/Co-Mod: M46, M49, M52, NM10

2.71828.....

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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #648 on: April 26, 2017, 06:00:30 pm »

I'm probably a lurker right now huh?
Faust seems fairly towny which makes me want to jump on the e train.

You mean the eevee train.

This post is really interesting by kkrieg. And I think scummy

Vote: kkrieg

There was some scummy stuff D1 in my opinion, and then wagon stuff with the flip pointed out by gkrieg
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Man. I had four strips of bacon yesterday. Was one automatically undercooked, one automatically overcooked? No, let's put a stop to that right here, all four strips were excellent.

The_Wine_Merchant

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Re: M98: Русская Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #649 on: April 26, 2017, 08:50:55 pm »

Vote: kkrieg

TWM is town, like I said D1
Well now I am glad that I didn't go for either your or Andrew's lynch Day 1.
Logged
Wins: M91, M96, NM10, M98, M102, M105
Losses: M100, M103, M104, M109, M112

MVPs: M91, M96
Win percentage: 54.5 (6/11)
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