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Author Topic: Newbie Mafia 10: Return of the Super Awesome Flavor Names (!!!) Mafia-Town Wins!  (Read 163888 times)

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SpaceAnemone

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What I'm thinking is it would be best to talk about who we will lynch tomorrow while all 4 of us are alive. Do a no lynch today and hopefully have a better idea of who scum is tomorrow.

I don't know - at this point is it helpful to point out why I specifically think Space is scum? If she isn't, then it gives scum more reasons to attack a  townie. Does that make sense?

What you're suggesting is generally called making a case on me. That's the way things usually go in late games; Awaclus's approach of not making cases is really the exception to the norm, in my experience.

I would expect here that everyone should be looking at a possible case on everyone else, rather than doing what RR is apparently doing and just "going with it" -- that's going to end badly for us if he believes what people say about how they've been acting, as opposed to looking in detail at what they actually did.
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Town games: M84(L), M85(W), M86(L), M87(W), M88(L), M90(L), M92(W), M94(L), M97(L), M99(W), M100(L), M104(W), M107(W), M110(L), M112(L), RMM37(L), RMM40(D), RMM41(L), RMM43(L), RMM47(W), ZM23(W).
Scum games: M89(D), M108(L), NM8(W&MVP), NM10(L)   Mod: NM9, RMM38, RMM42.   Pronouns: they/them

SpaceAnemone

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Awaclus from D1 (26 posts in total)

Early game: comes straight in interacting with RR's joke, and comments on TWM's unwillingness to let it slide. In retrospect, I wonder whether that pressure from TWM on RR was a PR-slip that Awaclus picked up on, because while he later claims to have tunneled LL since early D1, he was mostly pushing a case on TWM -- it was TWM he ended up voting for when the day closed.

Puts LL to L-1 at #183, but shortly after that the wagon dies. That's really not an uncommon pattern for an early D1 wagon. Awaclus accuses LL of being scum again at #231, and says he's getteng a scum vibe from LL because LL is scum. That almost counts as evidence only scum should have had at that point, with so little information in the game and nothing as concrete as a scumslip to go on. I'm mostly commenting on this because of Awaclus's explicit insistence later on that he hasn't displayed knowledge of any info he shouldn't have if he was town. A certainty early on about someone's alignment is more likely to come from scum than from town. He's also never explained what his reasons for scum-reading LL were, other than this vibe.

He explains IDP's use of an English turn of phrase to LL at #237. It's generally helpful, but of course it's also in scum's interest to make sure their partner isn't misunderstanding that content.

Awaclus's longest post is at #283. Two actual paragraphs! He's mostly reinforcing his story of how it's impossible to scum-hunt successfully (having already argued at #276 that giving out reads is a bad idea). The bit about "the more you can say stuff" is pretty ironic, given how little he's said over the course of the game, but I think he'd absolutely push that argument as scum. (He's kind of locked into some of this from meta anyway, but it definitley serves a scum purpose here, in that he's avoiding giving us anything much that we can later hold him accountable for).

At post #321, he's dressing up an easily-fakable townslip by couching it as advice for the newbie. Note that LaLight made another easy-to-fake "townslip" at #111 -- this is pretty basic stuff to fake, and a question to the mod in the scum QT would have given Awaclus all the info he'd need about us not having QTs.

The post at #359 is an easy distancing action between himself and LL, and that combined with the little cluster of posts around 386-399 seems to be really trying to drive a TWM mislynch. At the end of D1, Awaclus was still voting for TWM.

Note also that Awaclus seems to have been awarded townpoints by RR at #619 for his placement at the end of D1. However, Awaclus and I are in Europe, so the deadline was in the middle of the night for us. He disappeared at 18.50 forum time with his vote on towny-looking TWM. Really, not many people were willing to vote there, and there was no decent scum case on TWM. I seriously don't think Awaclus gets any townpoints for that. Also, Awaclus is now claiming that he's townie becasue he tunneled LL since D1, but if that's the case, why was he not pushing LL instead?
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Town games: M84(L), M85(W), M86(L), M87(W), M88(L), M90(L), M92(W), M94(L), M97(L), M99(W), M100(L), M104(W), M107(W), M110(L), M112(L), RMM37(L), RMM40(D), RMM41(L), RMM43(L), RMM47(W), ZM23(W).
Scum games: M89(D), M108(L), NM8(W&MVP), NM10(L)   Mod: NM9, RMM38, RMM42.   Pronouns: they/them

SpaceAnemone

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Awaclus: D2-present (20 posts total)

Awaclus diffuses a possible townslip by RR, which makes a lot of sense for scum to do because he won't want too many people out there who're universally town-read. We've been quite fortunate with the setup giving us so many ICs, so more townreads is something scum can't really afford.

Awaclus does a lot more pushing of the "reads aren't helpful" angle at #868, and then more along the lines of "cases aren't helpful" in D3 at #911. He's basically arguing against all the usual ways we tend to go about getting decent gut feels about who's being scummy.

Awaclus returns to the LL vote again only at #870 (TWM being the only person he'd voted for since #387), having argued with RR and TWM, but not having engaged with the LL case at all. He only put LL to L-2, so it wouldn't even have been a hard bus for a while, except that scahdd quick-hammered unexpectedly.

Awaclus's towniness case at #912 is very formulaic, and easy to counter.
A) He mentions not having a QT. That's an easy-to-manufacture "townslip" that nobody should put much stock in at all.
B) He claims to have pushed a case against "a flipped scum" since D1, whereas he actually spent most of his time voting for TWM (our deceased IC-ified PR). He only joined the LL wagon once it was already picking up, and could have expected time to jump off after appearing willing, except for schadd's quick-hammer.
C) He says he hasn't scumslipped or revealed that he has secret agenda. Well, nor has anyone else who's still alive at the moment. It's more impressive coming from someone who later flips scum, but in itself it doesn't make him townie at the moment.

At the end of D3, Awaclus votes Jake to L+1 with a follow-up post that says "Isn't it good that I'm contributing?". Note that at this point, the remaining scum is the only one who knows that it's not already game over, and therefore that making contributions is still going to be a valid consideration. There rest of us were just glad to have what felt like a solved game done with at that point, I think.

That brings us to the D4 posts, where he's basically trying to set himself up as IC by implying that it kills him and doesn't help the rest of us. Please make sure you read his actual play rather than just believing his summary of it! (RR, see above comment about "going along with it"!).
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Scum games: M89(D), M108(L), NM8(W&MVP), NM10(L)   Mod: NM9, RMM38, RMM42.   Pronouns: they/them

SpaceAnemone

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RR us up next, but he's got 148 game posts to Awaclus's 46, so that takes rather longer!

I also have a load of stuff to do today now, but I'll return to cases this evening.
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Scum games: M89(D), M108(L), NM8(W&MVP), NM10(L)   Mod: NM9, RMM38, RMM42.   Pronouns: they/them

Awaclus

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Please make sure you read his actual play rather than just believing his summary of it!

It's funny that you would say that.
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Awaclus

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Early game: comes straight in interacting with RR's joke, and comments on TWM's unwillingness to let it slide. In retrospect, I wonder whether that pressure from TWM on RR was a PR-slip that Awaclus picked up on, because while he later claims to have tunneled LL since early D1, he was mostly pushing a case on TWM -- it was TWM he ended up voting for when the day closed.

This is a blatant misrepresentation of my D1 to the degree that I can only assume it's intentional. I made it clear that I was accusing both LL and TWM of being scum, specifically with each other. If you look at my posts, you can easily tell that I was putting a lot of pressure on LL throughout the entire day.

Puts LL to L-1 at #183, but shortly after that the wagon dies. That's really not an uncommon pattern for an early D1 wagon. Awaclus accuses LL of being scum again at #231, and says he's getteng a scum vibe from LL because LL is scum. That almost counts as evidence only scum should have had at that point, with so little information in the game and nothing as concrete as a scumslip to go on. I'm mostly commenting on this because of Awaclus's explicit insistence later on that he hasn't displayed knowledge of any info he shouldn't have if he was town. A certainty early on about someone's alignment is more likely to come from scum than from town. He's also never explained what his reasons for scum-reading LL were, other than this vibe.

My reasons for "scumreading" LL were, of course, that he was TWM's partner. What I thought could have been coaching turned out to be buddying instead, but regardless, there wasn't a lot to go by so I had to put pressure on someone for something. At no point was I certain that LL was scum, "because X is scum" is simply an early game tactic I use in every single game that I play as town, with the purpose of hiding my thought process from scum as much as possible while making them be on the edge and stuff. As far as the "vibe" comment was concerned, it was a reference to the discussion LL and kkgrieg were having at the time.

He explains IDP's use of an English turn of phrase to LL at #237. It's generally helpful, but of course it's also in scum's interest to make sure their partner isn't misunderstanding that content.

Of course it's also in your interest to twist absolutely everything I have done this game to fit a scum narrative you're trying to push, but as it would turn out, I was actually just answering a question about the English language since I happened to know the answer and wanted to help someone learn a language. It had nothing at all to do with this game.

Awaclus's longest post is at #283. Two actual paragraphs! He's mostly reinforcing his story of how it's impossible to scum-hunt successfully (having already argued at #276 that giving out reads is a bad idea). The bit about "the more you can say stuff" is pretty ironic, given how little he's said over the course of the game, but I think he'd absolutely push that argument as scum. (He's kind of locked into some of this from meta anyway, but it definitley serves a scum purpose here, in that he's avoiding giving us anything much that we can later hold him accountable for).

How did I say that it's impossible to scumhunt? Of course it's possible to scumhunt, you just don't do it by telling scum about the traps you're trying to set for them.

At post #321, he's dressing up an easily-fakable townslip by couching it as advice for the newbie. Note that LaLight made another easy-to-fake "townslip" at #111 -- this is pretty basic stuff to fake, and a question to the mod in the scum QT would have given Awaclus all the info he'd need about us not having QTs.

LaLight's "townslip" was exhibiting a lack of information that scum would have. My townslip was exhibiting having information that scum might lack. It's not a solid proof that I'm town for sure, but it does contribute towards making it more likely. There's no reason to draw a connection between LaLight faking a townslip and me townslipping — you would already know from the Kubo blitz that these days I try to townslip intentionally as town.

The post at #359 is an easy distancing action between himself and LL, and that combined with the little cluster of posts around 386-399 seems to be really trying to drive a TWM mislynch. At the end of D1, Awaclus was still voting for TWM.

More intentional misrepresentation.

Note also that Awaclus seems to have been awarded townpoints by RR at #619 for his placement at the end of D1. However, Awaclus and I are in Europe, so the deadline was in the middle of the night for us. He disappeared at 18.50 forum time with his vote on towny-looking TWM. Really, not many people were willing to vote there, and there was no decent scum case on TWM. I seriously don't think Awaclus gets any townpoints for that. Also, Awaclus is now claiming that he's townie becasue he tunneled LL since D1, but if that's the case, why was he not pushing LL instead?

I was pushing LL. Unfortunately, I don't get to vote for two different people at a time.
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Awaclus

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Awaclus diffuses a possible townslip by RR, which makes a lot of sense for scum to do because he won't want too many people out there who're universally town-read. We've been quite fortunate with the setup giving us so many ICs, so more townreads is something scum can't really afford.

I diffused it because it wasn't necessarily a townslip. I also pushed LaLight, who made a similar townslip, which turned out to be fake, remember?

Awaclus does a lot more pushing of the "reads aren't helpful" angle at #868, and then more along the lines of "cases aren't helpful" in D3 at #911. He's basically arguing against all the usual ways we tend to go about getting decent gut feels about who's being scummy.

Yeah, because all the usual ways are pseudoscientific. People love to think they know when another person is lying based on their superficial behavior, but the fact is that you're going to need special equipment for that and even the special equipment isn't amazing at it. As far as your ability to detect a lie with the naked eye is concerned, it's about as good as a coinflip.

Awaclus returns to the LL vote again only at #870 (TWM being the only person he'd voted for since #387), having argued with RR and TWM, but not having engaged with the LL case at all. He only put LL to L-2, so it wouldn't even have been a hard bus for a while, except that scahdd quick-hammered unexpectedly.

Well, it turned out that I had been wrong about TWM. It took me some time to reassess the situation and conclude that LaLight was still probably scum after TWM was confirmed town.

Awaclus's towniness case at #912 is very formulaic, and easy to counter.
A) He mentions not having a QT. That's an easy-to-manufacture "townslip" that nobody should put much stock in at all.
B) He claims to have pushed a case against "a flipped scum" since D1, whereas he actually spent most of his time voting for TWM (our deceased IC-ified PR). He only joined the LL wagon once it was already picking up, and could have expected time to jump off after appearing willing, except for schadd's quick-hammer.
C) He says he hasn't scumslipped or revealed that he has secret agenda. Well, nor has anyone else who's still alive at the moment. It's more impressive coming from someone who later flips scum, but in itself it doesn't make him townie at the moment.

It's easy to counter if you don't care about whether or not what you're countering it with is true. I have, indeed pushed a case against a flipped scum, and I actually spent all of my time pushing a case against a flipped scum. C) is also not true, but I'll come to that later.

At the end of D3, Awaclus votes Jake to L+1 with a follow-up post that says "Isn't it good that I'm contributing?". Note that at this point, the remaining scum is the only one who knows that it's not already game over, and therefore that making contributions is still going to be a valid consideration. There rest of us were just glad to have what felt like a solved game done with at that point, I think.

You're just grasping at straws here. It was obviously a sarcastic remark, since it turned out that Jake was already lynched by the time I voted for him, i.e. I actually wasn't contributing at all.
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Awaclus

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As far as SpaceAnemone is concerned, I have a hypothesis and evidence to support it.

Now, let's look at the current situation. kkrieg has expressed a scum read on Space, RR has expressed that he hasn't re-read me and that he was just going with it when I said I was towny, and I haven't expressed anything. Space just wrote a long case on me where Space accuses me of things I didn't do and twists the things that I did do to look scummier than they actually are. My hypothesis is that Space is planning to kill kkrieg to eliminate the correct scum read, and the purpose of Space's case on me is to manipulate RR into mislynching me tomorrow in hopes that RR won't double check whether or not any of it is actually true. This is the best way for scum!Space to deal with every townie who's still alive.
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Awaclus diffuses a possible townslip by RR, which makes a lot of sense for scum to do because he won't want too many people out there who're universally town-read. We've been quite fortunate with the setup giving us so many ICs, so more townreads is something scum can't really afford.

...how does Space know that RR is town, especially before rereading him? This is not an honest attempt to figure out who's scum from an uninformed perspective, this is an attempt to convince town!RR that I'm scum.
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Little does Space know that I'm busy today and I'm not even going to read their case on Awaclus! (Until later)
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Awaclus

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Vote: Space
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kkrieg

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This is why I think Space is scum. I reread LaLight and I think what he says about her is really, really weird.
I pulled almost every quote from LaLight that has any mention of Space (may have missed one, but I don't think I did).
Everything LaLight says about Space is in her defense. I bolded those things for clarity.
Just me, or super scummy?


In other news, I like the stuff that's been going on.
1. I think LaLight's English is native speaker level, or at least that's the impression I get.
2. Space isn't impersonal when it comes to playing, but when it comes to reads...maybe?
3. I love the kkrieg vote. It's always harder to contribute as scum than as town, because all yoir reads have to be pretty much made up. That being said, I don't want to lynch a newbie D1 in a newbie game, especially when they're the newest newbie.

1) Oh, thanks a lot! The funniest thing is that my english improved massively after playing Forum Mafia endlessly :D
3) If they are scum, we should lynch them nevertheless. Because that's, um, the point of the game. I am not sure kkrieg is scum though.
Lalight skips over #2 (comment dealing with Space)


I have about 20% confidence in my reads at this point, but here they are:

RR is town - so too probably is Jake. Awaclus as well. They are all ones I want to find scummy, but am not for what that is worth.

schadd feels slightly scummy to me.

kkrieg seems to be doing fine. So null there, but that is to be expected.

IDPTG-I don't buy the schadd stuff there, probably hence why I find schadd scummy.

That leaves Lalight and Space and honestly, you two are kinda of combining together a bit. I feel like I remember more from LA and it was townie enough, so I guess that leaves Space as being somewhat more suspicious. But not enough to make me want to vote or anything like that. Just how I am remembering at this specific moment.

so, it's 80% that Jake/RR/Awa are scums, schadd is slightly townie, kkrieg is... erm... not null and you buy the schadd stuff on IDPTG?

On a serious note, me and Space are really good friends so we kinda combine together (if I understood correctly what you meant).
This is interesting. I know they are friends IRL but still. Why would that make them "kinda combine together?"


Just read Space. Hasn't had a single post {please correct me if I am wrong, it is a bit late and I am a bit dopey I will freely admit} that was scum hunting oriented. But still had a lot of posts that had a "I am helpful so don't suspect me" vibe.

I saw that you stated that you would get more into that aspect of the game on Sunday, which I get and respect that you have been busy. But on the flip side, I am seeing now that I am town, one of my roles {Awaclus would probably disagree, but they can have their own playstyle} is to give out reads and hunt so that others can more easily read me. And from what I have seen of you that is also a descriptor I would assign to you.

So. vote: Space

Actually, knowing Space, I can say that it's a huge probability that on D1 they are leaving a scumhunting to newbies helping them with some setup advices and if things go bad, Space will step up and say: "okay, guys, now my reads", and this will be correct.
Defending her play style and trying to get others to agree with her future reads


okay, reread everything twice and the more time goes the more I am scumreading TWM. At first he was pretty townie due to lack of effort that he puts a lot of when he's scum. But now it looks like that was intentional because now he slowly returns to his scum meta. I am calling TWM/schadd scumteam and remaining on schadd's wagon, who was scummy before and is scummy now.

The other person to think about is Awaclus. Maybe he's doing the same thing with scumreading me with 100% surety for metareasons (because previously he's been doing that as town so now he exprects us to read him as town again (which works as far as I can see)).

Can't read RR and Jake at all. They are generally scummy and it's hard to judge. I won't be surprised if one or both are scum, but for now schadd is scummier than both combined.

I tend to townread SA a lot, and I am doing it now, but I keep in mind that they may as well be scum and nothing really would differ in that case. Don't want to lynch right now, but will watch closer after (if i will make it to D2 :) )

kkrieg is the nullest of all, i can easily see her being scum and being town. I wish there were more content because it's hard for me to read someone the first time.

e/IDPTG are on townie side, but I don't really support schadd's idea that that IDPTG leaving post was IC-level townie. But D1 pass from me.
Hmmmmmm


1. kkrieg
Behaves as a newb!newb, can't tell if scum or not. May be both ways, I usually struggle to read people I haven't played with.
2. LaLight - IC, you know
3. Awaclus - either he is very townie or imitates his town play really well. Again, may be both ways, but I probably do not want to lynch him.
4. SpaceAnemone - massive town vibes. Yes, yes, may be imitated. I am sorry my reads are mostly crap. It's that stage of the game where everyone seems scummy to me unregarding anything.
5. The Wine Merchant
IC
7. JaketheBaseballGod22 - here we come into much scummier field. Jake feels very careful with posting and now he starts to tunnel people who may or may not be his partners. But he's not the one I want to lynch today.
8. schadd - Here we go, Scummy McScum Scummelson. I look at schadd's post and activity level and it rings all the alarm bells I have. schadd loves being VT, he said in Mafia Hub it's his favorite role and his behaviour in this game does seem like he is trying as hard as he can to seem just a VT. But it's a good gisguised scum play as I see it and I can't get away from this feeling.
9. Roadrunner7671 - quite a good candidature for being schadd's partner. Reverse tunneling is a thing that really helps you get towncred. Given that we had wagons on TWM/Jake/2.7 in the EoD, given that RR supposedly knew they all may be were town, he could easily protect E, because anyway the town will be lynched. Now the town is lynched, RR has townpoints, voila. I don't believe the plan, I don't believe RR.
To me, this is the most interesting thing LaLight said about Space ESPECIALLY considering his last comment about her.

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If we no lynch here, SA won't die. I seriously doubt I'll die because I always mess up LyLo.

If kkrieg dies, that hurts me.
If Awaclus dies, that hurts...no one?

I think kkrieg will die if we no lynch.
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kkrieg

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I'm fine no lynching and getting NK as long as you and awalcus plan to lynch Space the next day.

Isn't it silly to lynch today? Our chances of winning are much better if we no lynch.
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Awaclus

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I'm fine no lynching and getting NK as long as you and awalcus plan to lynch Space the next day.

Isn't it silly to lynch today? Our chances of winning are much better if we no lynch.

Our chances of winning are exactly the same regardless of whether we lynch Space today or tomorrow.
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SpaceAnemone

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This is why I think Space is scum. I reread LaLight and I think what he says about her is really, really weird.

Yeah, you're scumreading me for getting "buddied" by scum. Fair enough, but the other two in the game are at least a bit aware of the history between me and LL. It worked out for him, to the extent that I townread him for D1.. I actually felt like he was behaving in a townie way :-(
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Town games: M84(L), M85(W), M86(L), M87(W), M88(L), M90(L), M92(W), M94(L), M97(L), M99(W), M100(L), M104(W), M107(W), M110(L), M112(L), RMM37(L), RMM40(D), RMM41(L), RMM43(L), RMM47(W), ZM23(W).
Scum games: M89(D), M108(L), NM8(W&MVP), NM10(L)   Mod: NM9, RMM38, RMM42.   Pronouns: they/them

SpaceAnemone

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Awaclus diffuses a possible townslip by RR, which makes a lot of sense for scum to do because he won't want too many people out there who're universally town-read. We've been quite fortunate with the setup giving us so many ICs, so more townreads is something scum can't really afford.

...how does Space know that RR is town, especially before rereading him? This is not an honest attempt to figure out who's scum from an uninformed perspective, this is an attempt to convince town!RR that I'm scum.

Re-reading you made you feel really scummy, ergo if you're scum, the townslip by RR must be real. This was from the argument I was putting forward for you being scum. As I said, the one for RR is currently a WiP, but I can't do anything about it right now because I'm at work. (I'm currently on lunch break, but my notes are on my laptop anyway...)
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Town games: M84(L), M85(W), M86(L), M87(W), M88(L), M90(L), M92(W), M94(L), M97(L), M99(W), M100(L), M104(W), M107(W), M110(L), M112(L), RMM37(L), RMM40(D), RMM41(L), RMM43(L), RMM47(W), ZM23(W).
Scum games: M89(D), M108(L), NM8(W&MVP), NM10(L)   Mod: NM9, RMM38, RMM42.   Pronouns: they/them

Awaclus

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Re-reading you made you feel really scummy, ergo if you're scum, the townslip by RR must be real. This was from the argument I was putting forward for you being scum. As I said, the one for RR is currently a WiP, but I can't do anything about it right now because I'm at work. (I'm currently on lunch break, but my notes are on my laptop anyway...)

Premise 1: If Awaclus is scum, the townslip by RR is real.
Premise 2: If the townslip by RR is real, Awaclus is scum.

Conclusion 1: If Awaclus is scum, Awaclus is scum.
Conclusion 2: If the townslip by RR is real, the townslip by RR is real.

The thing is, you're drawing more conclusions than that. Which means that you must have more premises than the ones you're claiming to have.
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Roadrunner7671

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Will I die if we no lynch?
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AndrewisFTTW

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Vote Count 4.1

no lynch (1): SpaceAnemone
SpaceAnemone (1): Awaclus

Not Voting (2): kkrieg, Roadrunner7671

With 4 alive it takes 3 to lynch. Day 4 starts now and ends Friday April 28 at 3pm forum time.
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Wins: M39, M41, M48, M96, M97, M102, M105
Losses: M40, M43, M45, BM17 (?), RMM13, RMM17, RMM20, NM7, ZM18, M100, M109
MVPs: M97
Mod/Co-Mod: M46, M49, M52, NM10

kkrieg

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Will I die if we no lynch?
I think it's you or me haha
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kkrieg

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I feel best about no lynching today and committing to lynching Space if I'm alive the next day. So if I don't die tonight, I'm voting Space tomorrow.
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Roadrunner7671

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I feel best about no lynching today and committing to lynching Space if I'm alive the next day. So if I don't die tonight, I'm voting Space tomorrow.
Well since you want to no lynch and SA doesn't want to vote for themselves, I think we have to no lynch.
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kkrieg

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I feel best about no lynching today and committing to lynching Space if I'm alive the next day. So if I don't die tonight, I'm voting Space tomorrow.
Well since you want to no lynch and SA doesn't want to vote for themselves, I think we have to no lynch.
Do you feel good about lynching today?
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Roadrunner7671

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I feel best about no lynching today and committing to lynching Space if I'm alive the next day. So if I don't die tonight, I'm voting Space tomorrow.
Well since you want to no lynch and SA doesn't want to vote for themselves, I think we have to no lynch.
Do you feel good about lynching today?
It's fine, doesn't really matter to me.
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