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Author Topic: M96: Fibonacci Mafia (Game over! Scum won!)  (Read 15991 times)

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The_Wine_Merchant

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Re: M96: Fibonacci Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #850 on: March 17, 2017, 09:39:32 pm »

So let's say Andrew is mafia. What do his partners do in this situation?

His wagon has moved so slowly and with so little distraction I see three options here.

1. His partners are ok with his lynch. Meaning there has to be some bussing going on or
2. His partners just aren't willing, haven't been able, or don't feel confident enough to push away from his wagon
3. He isn't mafia and the real mafia are ok with just letting this wagon ride, either on it or off it (at least one is likely to be on).

So I guess I want to go through those three (well there are kind of four) and see what I think.
Logged
Wins: M91, M96, NM10, M98, M102, M105
Losses: M100, M103, M104, M109, M112

MVPs: M91, M96
Win percentage: 54.5 (6/11)

Witherweaver

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Re: M96: Fibonacci Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #851 on: March 17, 2017, 09:40:06 pm »

So let's say Andrew is mafia. What do his partners do in this situation?

His wagon has moved so slowly and with so little distraction I see three options here.

1. His partners are ok with his lynch. Meaning there has to be some bussing going on or
2. His partners just aren't willing, haven't been able, or don't feel confident enough to push away from his wagon
3. He isn't mafia and the real mafia are ok with just letting this wagon ride, either on it or off it (at least one is likely to be on).

So I guess I want to go through those three (well there are kind of four) and see what I think.

You won't know the answers to these questions if you don't vote him!
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The_Wine_Merchant

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Re: M96: Fibonacci Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #852 on: March 17, 2017, 10:57:20 pm »

So let's say Andrew is mafia. What do his partners do in this situation?

His wagon has moved so slowly and with so little distraction I see three options here.

1. His partners are ok with his lynch. Meaning there has to be some bussing going on or
2. His partners just aren't willing, haven't been able, or don't feel confident enough to push away from his wagon
3. He isn't mafia and the real mafia are ok with just letting this wagon ride, either on it or off it (at least one is likely to be on).

So I guess I want to go through those three (well there are kind of four) and see what I think.

You won't know the answers to these questions if you don't vote him!

Ummmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm

Mmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm

Vote Count 2.5
AndrewisFTTW (4): The_Wine_Merchant, Witherweaver, pingpongsam, Eevee
Logged
Wins: M91, M96, NM10, M98, M102, M105
Losses: M100, M103, M104, M109, M112

MVPs: M91, M96
Win percentage: 54.5 (6/11)

Witherweaver

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Re: M96: Fibonacci Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #853 on: March 17, 2017, 11:49:18 pm »

Darn. 
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The_Wine_Merchant

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Re: M96: Fibonacci Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #854 on: March 17, 2017, 11:55:55 pm »

OK:

Theory number 1: His partners are ok with his lynch. Meaning there has to be some bussing going.

Already I am not loving this theory as it is a small group here, especially after I take out myself:

AndrewisFTTW (4): The_Wine_Merchant, Witherweaver, pingpongsam, Eevee

Looking at the votes on Andrew I am seeing the following:

WW's vote, which was basically a sheep of mcmc's noncommital posts about Andrew. He does have an early post about feeling better about a Andrew lynch. But nothing else really.

PPS and Eevee voting after being prompted by WW. PPS does have a larger post later about why he voted for Andrew. Eevee has basically no real suspicion of Andrew previously.

So really, I am just not really seeing anyone here who would be a great candidate for voting for their partner in Andrew. I say that because I think when you vote for a partner you at least want to give some sort of reason, something that later, if he does get lynched, you can look back on and say, "see, right there I pointed out that scummy thing about him" and get some credit for it. None of WW, PPS or Eevee really do that. PPS later, but that felt like a backwards way of approaching it if they are both mafia.
Logged
Wins: M91, M96, NM10, M98, M102, M105
Losses: M100, M103, M104, M109, M112

MVPs: M91, M96
Win percentage: 54.5 (6/11)

The_Wine_Merchant

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Re: M96: Fibonacci Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #855 on: March 18, 2017, 12:15:29 am »

Theory number 2: His partners just aren't willing, haven't been able, or don't feel confident enough to push away from his wagon

Players not voting for Andrew:

IDontPlayThisGame, Dylan32, Robz888, mcmcsalot, schadd

Given my conclusion above, I feel pretty good that if Andrew is mafia there is a 100% chance that at least one player of the above is mafia and maybe a 50/50 chance that the second is one of the above as well. I don't know. I don't really have any actual numbers to back those up, so don't ask for them, just gut numbers.

Anyways. Looking at the players above the first one that jumps out is mcmc. He has had multiple posts about being suspicious of Andrew, but hasn't actually voted there. I think it is fair to say that he recruited the three votes from Eevee, WW and PPS though. So while that is somewhat suspect, if Andrew is mafia, it seems like a lot of work, but no credit unless he is planning on voting later. But from what I remember of playing with mcmc last game, he wasn't really into bussing unless he felt like it was a situation that really warranted it. He even shied away from a pretty compellingly accurate case on RR. So I think this would make mcmc townier, maybe if Andrew is mafia?

The rest are really hard to get a good read on.

I feel like Robz would have perhaps jumped in faster and earlier if Andrew were mafia, either to get on board for credit or to push away from it. But I guess I could also see a narrative that he thinks it will just dissipate and wants to just let it go away naturally. That would be a bit of a risk. Or he is just honestly busy.

schadd I basically never know what he is talking about. But I can properly say that he has basically ignored the Andrew wagon completely. He asked PPS a question about Andrew that I don't understand, but it looked like it had more to do with PPS than Andrew. That raises some eyebrows for me. I could see a partner here.

Dylan has somewhat silently talked away from the Andrew wagon. Somewhat subtle and slow. First stating he didnt' like the wagon, then starting one on Eevee without much at all to back that vote up. I could see a partner potentially here. However, out of the cases to build Eevee I think could be a hard one as mcmc (the defacto leader of the town for better or worse right now) is pretty solidly against it. Quick edit before posting: I forgot that Eevee had a small wagon on him with schadd/WW (WW leaving) so maybe Dylan thought that could be worthwhile other option?

IDPTG: hasn't talked a lot about Andrew. Says he believed him about the L-1 and L-2 stuff. But hasn't really tried to move the focus to a different direction. So again, possible partner here.

So there are possibilities in Schadd, Dylan, IDPTG and maybe Robz. Longer shot for mcmc I think.
Logged
Wins: M91, M96, NM10, M98, M102, M105
Losses: M100, M103, M104, M109, M112

MVPs: M91, M96
Win percentage: 54.5 (6/11)

Witherweaver

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Re: M96: Fibonacci Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #856 on: March 18, 2017, 12:17:12 am »

This Wine Merchant guy sounds town.
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The_Wine_Merchant

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Re: M96: Fibonacci Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #857 on: March 18, 2017, 12:20:40 am »

And as for theory 3: He isn't mafia and the real mafia are ok with just letting this wagon ride, either on it or off it (at least one is likely to be on)

This one is harder to get a take on I think, but maybe that is just my bias toward Andrew being scummy. I feel like nearly everyone on or off could be mafia pushing a false wagon, but there isn't a whole lot to say that they are.

Really the only player that I feel doesn't fit that bill is mcmc who is pushing it but not on it. mcmc could easily just jump onto the wagon and not really bat an eye. To an extent PPS would also appear to be a little less suspicous.

I guess the worst offenders are probably Eevee and WW, if Andrew is town. And to an extent I agree with Eevee about Dylan being townier if Andrew is town.

So end of the story:

I feel slightly less positive about the Andrew lynch. Part of that is not having a great read on everyone not voting for Andrew, except for mcmc. And I can see him as a potential mislynch, but I imagine that to an extent it feels that way for every lynch, unless you have an investigative result attached to it.
Logged
Wins: M91, M96, NM10, M98, M102, M105
Losses: M100, M103, M104, M109, M112

MVPs: M91, M96
Win percentage: 54.5 (6/11)

The_Wine_Merchant

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Re: M96: Fibonacci Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #858 on: March 18, 2017, 12:21:05 am »

This Wine Merchant guy sounds town.

Here. Have a bottle, on me.
Logged
Wins: M91, M96, NM10, M98, M102, M105
Losses: M100, M103, M104, M109, M112

MVPs: M91, M96
Win percentage: 54.5 (6/11)

Eevee

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Re: M96: Fibonacci Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #859 on: March 18, 2017, 11:45:30 am »

Had I known you were giving out free samples, I would have townread you sooner!
But seriously, that's good analysis.

Deadline is monday, we don't have a lot of time left. Robz, you got any thoughts as to who to or not to lynch?
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AndrewisFTTW

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Re: M96: Fibonacci Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #860 on: March 18, 2017, 01:55:02 pm »

Nobody has responded to my case on mcmc at all, I don't get it. I mean it seems like besides me the only people to suspect him at all were ash and I think Robz and maybe WW.

And while rereading a little bit I found these during twilight:

Andrew consistently having a scum read on me and still looking for scummy things I might be doing throughout our recent discussion and post flip feels super towny to me.

Want to lynch: ash, witherweaver, pps
Could be convinced: Joseph, dylan
Don't want to lynch based on my ability to read later: robz, TWM
Townie: eevee, idp, schadd, Andrew

Evolution of reads
Want to lynch: ash, Joseph, dylan
Could be convinced: pps, idp, witherweaver
Wish I didn't like you people so darn much be more alignment indicative: robz, eevee
Townie: twm, schadd, Andrew

Revolution of reads
Got lynched: Joseph (wagon) mcmcsalot, Witherweaver, Robz888, schadd, Eevee, AndrewisFTTW, pingpongsam
Scummy scum(off wagon): ash, dylan, idp
Keeping an eye on you killers(on wagon): eevee, pps, robz, witherweaver
Do more: TWM
Townie: schadd, Andrew

Consistent town read on me even AFTER the lynch. And now he says:

So I have more of a scum read on andrew then I remembered.

Yes, earlier I said reads change and that's normal and reads shouldn't be suspect just by themselves. But he said he finds me scummy for my vote and yet he had a strong townread on me AFTER my vote. It just looks like he didn't like me suspecting him and so he decided he didn't find me towny at all anymore. a.k.a. OMGUS

Anyway, I guess I'll post some reads for you guys:

schadd - Strong town - I don't know anything about him and even though he's been kinda lurking and joking and whatever, he seems like he is thinking critically and providing solid questions and feedback when he does post. I think he'd be the kind of person to be all-in and trying to lead town if he was scum.

TWM - Slight scum - At the beginning of the day I said I thought out of the three off wagon people he was the scummiest, but there wasn't really much content to analyze. Since then he's been posting pretty good stuff, especially his last three posts. But it feels like he's only starting to get more active now that there's a wagon that would lead to a lynch. I know D1 he was working and that's fine, but early today I don't think he was as active as he is now, and there's been plenty to talk about all day.

IDPTG - Null - Can't remember anything of note from him, I found him towny during my brief reread of the three people off wagon but again, he's just not putting much out there.

Robz - Slight town - Can't really form a read on someone who doesn't post. That said I think scum!Robz would be super active.

pps - Scum - That quickhammer just really rubs me the wrong way. And the way he jumped on my wagon was so sheepy. It seems like he's not really interested in engaging in debates and serious discussion on anything and he's more interested in distancing himself from everyone and doing his own thing, possibly so we can't trace anything back to him the whole game.

Eevee - Null - I guess he's providing good analysis sometimes? But other times it feels like he's just reacting to what other people say instead of coming up with his own opinions and observations. I could be wrong but that's just my recollection. I can't read him.

WW - Null - I would expect WW to be more active and engaged regardless of alignment. I really have no idea what his gameplan is this game and I'm pretty surprised he's as apathetic as he seems. It's pretty disappointing, honestly. I can't even say I'm upset, just disappointed that we don't have WW providing solid content like I remember him doing so often.

mcmc - Strong scum - Everyone knows how I feel about mcmc by now.

Dylan - Slight scum - I found him pretty towny the beginning of the day and since then he's had some good posts but I feel like he's been jumping votes the whole game, at least D2 since he wasn't around much D1. It's worth a reread but I just get the feeling that everything he says is hedgy and he doesn't commit to much, like he's trying to be very careful with everything he posts. Again, I could be wrong but that's just the feeling I get from him at this point.
Logged
Wins: M39, M41, M48, M96, M97, M102, M105
Losses: M40, M43, M45, BM17 (?), RMM13, RMM17, RMM20, NM7, ZM18, M100, M109
MVPs: M97
Mod/Co-Mod: M46, M49, M52, NM10

Dylan32

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Re: M96: Fibonacci Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #861 on: March 18, 2017, 02:14:01 pm »

Nobody has responded to my case on mcmc at all, I don't get it. I mean it seems like besides me the only people to suspect him at all were ash and I think Robz and maybe WW.

And while rereading a little bit I found these during twilight:

Andrew consistently having a scum read on me and still looking for scummy things I might be doing throughout our recent discussion and post flip feels super towny to me.

Want to lynch: ash, witherweaver, pps
Could be convinced: Joseph, dylan
Don't want to lynch based on my ability to read later: robz, TWM
Townie: eevee, idp, schadd, Andrew

Evolution of reads
Want to lynch: ash, Joseph, dylan
Could be convinced: pps, idp, witherweaver
Wish I didn't like you people so darn much be more alignment indicative: robz, eevee
Townie: twm, schadd, Andrew

Revolution of reads
Got lynched: Joseph (wagon) mcmcsalot, Witherweaver, Robz888, schadd, Eevee, AndrewisFTTW, pingpongsam
Scummy scum(off wagon): ash, dylan, idp
Keeping an eye on you killers(on wagon): eevee, pps, robz, witherweaver
Do more: TWM
Townie: schadd, Andrew

Consistent town read on me even AFTER the lynch. And now he says:

So I have more of a scum read on andrew then I remembered.

Yes, earlier I said reads change and that's normal and reads shouldn't be suspect just by themselves. But he said he finds me scummy for my vote and yet he had a strong townread on me AFTER my vote. It just looks like he didn't like me suspecting him and so he decided he didn't find me towny at all anymore. a.k.a. OMGUS

Anyway, I guess I'll post some reads for you guys:

schadd - Strong town - I don't know anything about him and even though he's been kinda lurking and joking and whatever, he seems like he is thinking critically and providing solid questions and feedback when he does post. I think he'd be the kind of person to be all-in and trying to lead town if he was scum.

TWM - Slight scum - At the beginning of the day I said I thought out of the three off wagon people he was the scummiest, but there wasn't really much content to analyze. Since then he's been posting pretty good stuff, especially his last three posts. But it feels like he's only starting to get more active now that there's a wagon that would lead to a lynch. I know D1 he was working and that's fine, but early today I don't think he was as active as he is now, and there's been plenty to talk about all day.

IDPTG - Null - Can't remember anything of note from him, I found him towny during my brief reread of the three people off wagon but again, he's just not putting much out there.

Robz - Slight town - Can't really form a read on someone who doesn't post. That said I think scum!Robz would be super active.

pps - Scum - That quickhammer just really rubs me the wrong way. And the way he jumped on my wagon was so sheepy. It seems like he's not really interested in engaging in debates and serious discussion on anything and he's more interested in distancing himself from everyone and doing his own thing, possibly so we can't trace anything back to him the whole game.

Eevee - Null - I guess he's providing good analysis sometimes? But other times it feels like he's just reacting to what other people say instead of coming up with his own opinions and observations. I could be wrong but that's just my recollection. I can't read him.

WW - Null - I would expect WW to be more active and engaged regardless of alignment. I really have no idea what his gameplan is this game and I'm pretty surprised he's as apathetic as he seems. It's pretty disappointing, honestly. I can't even say I'm upset, just disappointed that we don't have WW providing solid content like I remember him doing so often.

mcmc - Strong scum - Everyone knows how I feel about mcmc by now.

Dylan - Slight scum - I found him pretty towny the beginning of the day and since then he's had some good posts but I feel like he's been jumping votes the whole game, at least D2 since he wasn't around much D1. It's worth a reread but I just get the feeling that everything he says is hedgy and he doesn't commit to much, like he's trying to be very careful with everything he posts. Again, I could be wrong but that's just the feeling I get from him at this point.

I find it interesting you leave me off the list of people who have thought mcmc was scummy when he is one of my 2 top scum reads, and at one point was my biggest. I'm not sure what you mean by I've been "jumping votes." Please explain. And if I'm hedgy it's because the last several times I've taken a strong stand on someone it has ended up being wrong, so I'm trying not to go all in like I've been doing in previous games until I have stronger reasons.

Your description of schadd this game is actually 100% opposite of a recent game where he was town and I scum read him and drove a mislynch on him. So I actually would be ok with a lynch there. He was pretty much driving the D1 conversation as town. Scum!mcmc was in that game too, so I would actually recommend you read it.

I reread WW, and he feels slightly more sheepy than I remember him being. I wouldn't actually be surprised if he's scum.

For now I'm leaning town on PPS and TWM. Once TWM became more active today, his thoughts and analysis have been pretty towny. Even if I don't agree with every detail, it didn't feel like scum analysis.

Most of Andrew's thoughts have made sense to me, so I'm leaning town.

I'm pretty null on everyone else that I haven't already taken some kind of stand on.

tl;dr
Scummy: Eevee > mcmc > schadd = WW
null: Robz, IDPTG
town: Andrew, pps, twm
Logged
Forum Mafia Record - Wins: 6 - NM9, M97, RMM41, M99, M102, M104; Losses 7 - RMM37, M89, M94, M95, M96, M100, M109; MVPs: 1 - NM9

AndrewisFTTW

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Re: M96: Fibonacci Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #862 on: March 18, 2017, 02:27:45 pm »

Sorry I remembered that wrong Dylan. Which game are you referring to with schadd and mcmc?

I just reread Dylan D2 and I was totally wrong about vote jumping. I don't think he's voted at all today so my apologies Dylan. Not sure where I got that from.
Logged
Wins: M39, M41, M48, M96, M97, M102, M105
Losses: M40, M43, M45, BM17 (?), RMM13, RMM17, RMM20, NM7, ZM18, M100, M109
MVPs: M97
Mod/Co-Mod: M46, M49, M52, NM10

Dylan32

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Re: M96: Fibonacci Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #863 on: March 18, 2017, 03:17:46 pm »

Sorry I remembered that wrong Dylan. Which game are you referring to with schadd and mcmc?

I just reread Dylan D2 and I was totally wrong about vote jumping. I don't think he's voted at all today so my apologies Dylan. Not sure where I got that from.

1 vote. voted eevee today.  Game to read would be M94.
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Forum Mafia Record - Wins: 6 - NM9, M97, RMM41, M99, M102, M104; Losses 7 - RMM37, M89, M94, M95, M96, M100, M109; MVPs: 1 - NM9

The_Wine_Merchant

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Re: M96: Fibonacci Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #864 on: March 18, 2017, 03:40:55 pm »

I could vote for WW.
Logged
Wins: M91, M96, NM10, M98, M102, M105
Losses: M100, M103, M104, M109, M112

MVPs: M91, M96
Win percentage: 54.5 (6/11)

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Re: M96: Fibonacci Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #865 on: March 18, 2017, 04:36:46 pm »

Ok. Well if no one else (except schadd) is feeling an eevee vote, then let's vote: WW.
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Forum Mafia Record - Wins: 6 - NM9, M97, RMM41, M99, M102, M104; Losses 7 - RMM37, M89, M94, M95, M96, M100, M109; MVPs: 1 - NM9

Eevee

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Re: M96: Fibonacci Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #866 on: March 18, 2017, 04:52:20 pm »

Robz has done the super lurky act as scum before, he should get no towncred for it. He is extremely well balanced in that regard. Hoping he finds more time for us, of course.
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Eevee

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Re: M96: Fibonacci Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #867 on: March 18, 2017, 04:58:34 pm »

I feel all the towny stuff from schadd was first half of day 1, and that he's been riding that towncred ever since. I can't pinpoint anything scummy from his day 2, just feels he's just more or less been here day 2, which is always behavior that raises alarm bells for me. Sort of like an inverse TWM, whom i'm subsequently reading townier today.
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Witherweaver

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Re: M96: Fibonacci Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #868 on: March 18, 2017, 05:04:56 pm »

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Witherweaver

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Re: M96: Fibonacci Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #869 on: March 18, 2017, 05:05:49 pm »

Ok. Well if no one else (except schadd) is feeling an eevee vote, then let's vote: WW.

You are wrong.

What's your non-partner reason for avoiding the Andrew wagon?
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Witherweaver

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Re: M96: Fibonacci Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #870 on: March 18, 2017, 05:07:30 pm »

I feel all the towny stuff from schadd was first half of day 1, and that he's been riding that towncred ever since. I can't pinpoint anything scummy from his day 2, just feels he's just more or less been here day 2, which is always behavior that raises alarm bells for me. Sort of like an inverse TWM, whom i'm subsequently reading townier today.

What's your point?  Riding towncred is not scummy.
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Witherweaver

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Re: M96: Fibonacci Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #871 on: March 18, 2017, 05:11:05 pm »

Robz has done the super lurky act as scum before, he should get no towncred for it. He is extremely well balanced in that regard. Hoping he finds more time for us, of course.

We can always just lynch him.  Never a bad time to lynch a Robz.
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Dylan32

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Re: M96: Fibonacci Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #872 on: March 18, 2017, 05:14:44 pm »

Ok. Well if no one else (except schadd) is feeling an eevee vote, then let's vote: WW.

You are wrong.

What's your non-partner reason for avoiding the Andrew wagon?

The generic reason is that I've thought he was towny, and increasingly so as D2 has gone on.

More importantly, the people that I thought were most likely to be scum were the people that seemed to be driving his wagon, which makes me really not want to join it, even if I just thought he was purely null.
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Forum Mafia Record - Wins: 6 - NM9, M97, RMM41, M99, M102, M104; Losses 7 - RMM37, M89, M94, M95, M96, M100, M109; MVPs: 1 - NM9

Witherweaver

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Re: M96: Fibonacci Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #873 on: March 18, 2017, 05:22:29 pm »

Why is it he's townie, exactly?

Also that's not very generic.
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IDontPlayThisGame

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Re: M96: Fibonacci Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #874 on: March 18, 2017, 05:27:00 pm »

There's been a minicrisis at my apartment. Water's been pouring from the ceiling, so I'm a bit busy dealing with that.
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