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Author Topic: M96: Fibonacci Mafia (Game over! Scum won!)  (Read 158110 times)

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mcmcsalot

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Re: M96: Fibonacci Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #700 on: March 14, 2017, 03:46:43 pm »

pps and idptg, what do you think of each other?
I think he wasn't lying when he said he doesn't read set-ups.
Im going to continue hating the uselessness of people's answers to questions that might help us play the game...

And how am I supposed to tell the difference between that question and the following quote?

twm, how did you like m91?
Well for what it's worth I don't like that schadd asked that question when he did, but I'm not sure how that one non-game related question from a day ago has sent you into such a tizzy that you can no longer understand when you should answer questions thoroughly and not...

Ppe: what schadd said but meaner
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Wins: M19, M21, M23, M24, M26, M39, M91, M94, M102, M104, M107, M114, M115
Losses: M20, M22, M25, M27, M30, M31, M35, M38, M40, M42, M46, M60, M90, M93, M96, M98, M100, M101, M106, M111, M113
Winrate: 38.2%(13/34) 29.6%(8/27), 71.4%(5/7)

IDontPlayThisGame

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Re: M96: Fibonacci Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #701 on: March 14, 2017, 03:55:13 pm »

cool. alignment, though

I don't know. The hammer didn't seem super towny, but people who know PPS better than I do are writing it off as something he does so I don't know what to make of that. Nothing else is screaming scum so I really have no idea.

Can someone who has played lots with idp let me know if he is always this cautious and scared to have an opinion. This is textbook newbie scum continually claiming they are trying but just don't have great reads ect. ect. But it maybe idp has t played lots and mislynched town really badly in a newbie game and is all shell shocked and stuff.

I can summarize it for you:

M89: I think we got to D3 after two town lynches and successful NKs. There's talk of claiming and then the thread locks. Thread unlocks and the game's over because too many townies got modkilled.

NM9: Scum won flawlessly D3. You know my hesitations from that game.

M91: I forgot I wasn't going to have internet for 10 days when I signed up and had to /out when I remembered. Got absolutely nothing done D1.

M94: You were there.

M96: This game.

PPE: 2 - It's more that I have trouble making sense of anything schadd says.

Starting to think I'm really not cut out for this game. Because nothing makes any sense. Ever. I've yet to have a correct read. Sure, I've gotten alignments correct, but that'll happen statistically and something's always been off.

schadd

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Re: M96: Fibonacci Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #702 on: March 14, 2017, 03:58:20 pm »

you correctly townread me in m94
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pingpongsam

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Re: M96: Fibonacci Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #703 on: March 14, 2017, 04:00:01 pm »

I'm pretty much null on ICPjuggalo but I'm leaning town enough to be very hard pressed to lynch him today.
i hope you realize that this is having your cake & eating it if you two are partners

hopefully, you realize that were I scum I simply would never say such a thing about my partner.
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IDontPlayThisGame

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Re: M96: Fibonacci Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #704 on: March 14, 2017, 04:13:45 pm »

you correctly townread me in m94

Town, yes, but let's not go into the rest of it...

mcmcsalot

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Re: M96: Fibonacci Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #705 on: March 14, 2017, 04:18:16 pm »

I'm pretty much null on ICPjuggalo but I'm leaning town enough to be very hard pressed to lynch him today.
i hope you realize that this is having your cake & eating it if you two are partners

hopefully, you realize that were I scum I simply would never say such a thing about my partner.
Very specific meta argument, schadd is right you are shoving your face full of cake and promising there's not another cake in the fridge because.
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Wins: M19, M21, M23, M24, M26, M39, M91, M94, M102, M104, M107, M114, M115
Losses: M20, M22, M25, M27, M30, M31, M35, M38, M40, M42, M46, M60, M90, M93, M96, M98, M100, M101, M106, M111, M113
Winrate: 38.2%(13/34) 29.6%(8/27), 71.4%(5/7)

mcmcsalot

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Re: M96: Fibonacci Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #706 on: March 14, 2017, 04:18:50 pm »

Someone(me) should do an ash reread seeing as he's a smart guy and town.
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Losses: M20, M22, M25, M27, M30, M31, M35, M38, M40, M42, M46, M60, M90, M93, M96, M98, M100, M101, M106, M111, M113
Winrate: 38.2%(13/34) 29.6%(8/27), 71.4%(5/7)

Dylan32

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Re: M96: Fibonacci Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #707 on: March 14, 2017, 04:31:15 pm »

Ok, I'm finally back with enough time to actually go back and read the game. So I knew my post count was low (I couldn't forget it with you guys mentioning it at least once per page), but reading the game I realized just how low it was. I am sincerely sorry about that, and I probably wouldn't have in'd to this game had I known how many projects and stuff would pile up this week before spring break.

So I just reread the entire game, and mcmc and eevee seemed way too buddy-buddy for mutually town-reading each other if you didn't actually have something concrete to assure you the other person was also town.  Even when I am town reading someone, I recognize the fact I could be wrong and take everything with a grain of salt, but you guys don't seem to have done that at all. So I wouldn't definitely want to lynch one of the two of you. Also, after the hammer on Joseph, there were 3 conftowns (to me) on mcmc's wagon. Andrew and PPS were the last two on that moved if I remember correctly.  If mcmc is town, then I would want to lynch one of Andrew or PPS; not sure which yet, but would lean Andrew just because pps has seemed otherwise towny aside from the quickhammer (which, again, he would definitely still do as town, sadly).  If mcmc is scum, I'd stake my in game life on Eevee being scum too.

Someone was wanting to know what I thought about the suspicious on me I think.  I think given how low my post count is, it is at least understandable, but from the little experience I have, lynching low post count people hits inactive town WAY more than it hits lurking scum, because scum is more careful to contribute at least somewhat regularly. I would probably go so far as to speculate that statistically scum is most likely to be in the mid-range band of post counts because they know lurking is the stereotypical scum tell, but higher post counts are more risky (but also can pay off more; e.g. scum!mcmc driving--if not this game--previous games).

Of the 3 low content players here though, me, IDPTG, and TWM, TWM has had moments that did seem kind of scummy.  IDPTG seems pretty similar to what I've seen of him in other games and I think he's been around enough to probably be able to actually play as scum without having to try to rely on the confused!newb!town act that a couple people have alluded to recently; so I think he's probably just confused town.

PPE 2
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Forum Mafia Record - Wins: 14 - NM9, M97, RMM41, M99, M102, M104, M119, M126, RMM56, M133, M134, RMM58, RMM59, RMM61, RMM60; Losses 15 - RMM37, M89, M94, M95, M96, M100, RMM47 M109, M110, M120, M127, M129, M131, M132, M136; MVPs: 1 - NM9

Dylan32

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Re: M96: Fibonacci Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #708 on: March 14, 2017, 04:32:41 pm »

Wow, pretty significant typo. I meant to say "I would definitely want to lynch one of the two of you." referring to mcmc + eevee.
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Forum Mafia Record - Wins: 14 - NM9, M97, RMM41, M99, M102, M104, M119, M126, RMM56, M133, M134, RMM58, RMM59, RMM61, RMM60; Losses 15 - RMM37, M89, M94, M95, M96, M100, RMM47 M109, M110, M120, M127, M129, M131, M132, M136; MVPs: 1 - NM9

mcmcsalot

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Re: M96: Fibonacci Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #709 on: March 14, 2017, 04:33:08 pm »

@idp's most recent post: don't think the game isn't cut out for you, you will get the hang of it. I can see that the reason I am so confused by your play specifically is you actually caused me some trouble as town in squid girl. You correctly guessed shcadd was town and me scum d1 and also didn't get fooled into quicklynching robz d2. Lalights a lazy pants so it's hard to get an idea of m89 quickly but I having it stopped short is rough. So you've played two completed games and in one you were difinietly on the right track. My scum read on you has lessened.

Ppe: yay Dylan's back
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Losses: M20, M22, M25, M27, M30, M31, M35, M38, M40, M42, M46, M60, M90, M93, M96, M98, M100, M101, M106, M111, M113
Winrate: 38.2%(13/34) 29.6%(8/27), 71.4%(5/7)

Eevee

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Re: M96: Fibonacci Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #710 on: March 14, 2017, 04:47:45 pm »

Running late with a game night tonight, but I'll try to get to the last couple pages when we are done. Nice to see there's been a lot of activity!
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mcmcsalot

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Re: M96: Fibonacci Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #711 on: March 14, 2017, 04:48:22 pm »

I may vote dylan. schadd and I have been way more buddy buddy than eevee and I. Also the conclusions dylan made are that if I am town, he wants to lynch andrew or pps which is basically what I had said about how andrew and pps moved from me to Joseph scummily. He makes no conclusion about what me being town says about eevee. Then he says if I'm scum eevee is certainly scum, which I don't know how he has gotten to. Then he ends with a scummy if we're going to look off wagon twm is the scummy one but doesn't give any reasons whatso ever as to why.

All he is doing is setting up people he wants to lynch with almost no reasons other than mcmc and eevee are buddying eachother.

Also I want to clarify I really think his explaination for why andrew and pps are people he would look to if I were town is indicative of him being scum. After a complete reread it's a really general reasoning that is setting up where he can pivot when I flip town. He's not even thinking about what eevee flipping town would mean which is wierd since it's an eevee/me interaction not just me. It's just very "I've made one read I'm basing all my other reads on so I can change them" I do this as scum lots.
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Wins: M19, M21, M23, M24, M26, M39, M91, M94, M102, M104, M107, M114, M115
Losses: M20, M22, M25, M27, M30, M31, M35, M38, M40, M42, M46, M60, M90, M93, M96, M98, M100, M101, M106, M111, M113
Winrate: 38.2%(13/34) 29.6%(8/27), 71.4%(5/7)

pingpongsam

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Re: M96: Fibonacci Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #712 on: March 14, 2017, 04:51:39 pm »

I may vote dylan. schadd and I have been way more buddy buddy than eevee and I. Also the conclusions dylan made are that if I am town, he wants to lynch andrew or pps which is basically what I had said about how andrew and pps moved from me to Joseph scummily. He makes no conclusion about what me being town says about eevee. Then he says if I'm scum eevee is certainly scum, which I don't know how he has gotten to. Then he ends with a scummy if we're going to look off wagon twm is the scummy one but doesn't give any reasons whatso ever as to why.

All he is doing is setting up people he wants to lynch with almost no reasons other than mcmc and eevee are buddying eachother.

Also I want to clarify I really think his explaination for why andrew and pps are people he would look to if I were town is indicative of him being scum. After a complete reread it's a really general reasoning that is setting up where he can pivot when I flip town. He's not even thinking about what eevee flipping town would mean which is wierd since it's an eevee/me interaction not just me. It's just very "I've made one read I'm basing all my other reads on so I can change them" I do this as scum lots.

Agree with all this.
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The_Wine_Merchant

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Re: M96: Fibonacci Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #713 on: March 14, 2017, 04:57:01 pm »

Twm you just seem to be overly concerned with where we are looking for our lynch target. This is why I would consider you a lurker. Rather than commenting on if you think one of idp/dylan is scum, or making a case on someone on wagon you have just voiced concern over where we are looking.

Perhaps you have a good theory, scum is trying to coerce town into lynching between a small group of people that contains town. That's a thought, then you need to go through and do the work, see who has initiated the off wagon suspicion, who has agreed/disagreed, have the votes of those players and the prior reeds of those players been consistent with what they are currently pushing or not. Then present that info to town so we can analyze see if we think your right and maybe form a wagon on someone

That makes sense. I get what you are saying, but man, I just haven't had the time to go and do the work. Especially when I feel like when I come on, I have to defend myself to an extent from people who want to arbitrarily lynch a "lurker" who was off-wagon.

I would love to go back and actually see if my theory makes sense and I hope to at some point today, unless someone decides it is a good idea to do a quick hammer again.

And honestly. I just haven't seen a whole lot on first read that has really caught my eye. Last game, it was easier to an extent. I could just force it as scum. Arbitrarily decide something was scummy or sheep someone else and then state it as such and all was good for the most part. This game, between being town and having little time it hasn't been very optimal to putting reads out there.
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Wins: M91, M96, NM10, M98, M102, M105
Losses: M100, M103, M104, M109, M112

MVPs: M91, M96
Win percentage: 54.5 (6/11)

The_Wine_Merchant

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Re: M96: Fibonacci Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #714 on: March 14, 2017, 05:01:26 pm »

And I do like mcmc's reactions towards me/others. Is reminiscent of faust last game as town.
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Wins: M91, M96, NM10, M98, M102, M105
Losses: M100, M103, M104, M109, M112

MVPs: M91, M96
Win percentage: 54.5 (6/11)

schadd

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Re: M96: Fibonacci Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #715 on: March 14, 2017, 05:15:19 pm »

sigging before the game is over is kinda yucky


robz has been a bit quiet. if you do the "yeah i'm kinda disengaged because i'm town" thing i'm going to eat you
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mcmcsalot

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Re: M96: Fibonacci Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #716 on: March 14, 2017, 05:35:29 pm »

sigging before the game is over is kinda yucky


robz has been a bit quiet. if you do the "yeah i'm kinda disengaged because i'm town" thing i'm going to eat you
noted and removed
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Wins: M19, M21, M23, M24, M26, M39, M91, M94, M102, M104, M107, M114, M115
Losses: M20, M22, M25, M27, M30, M31, M35, M38, M40, M42, M46, M60, M90, M93, M96, M98, M100, M101, M106, M111, M113
Winrate: 38.2%(13/34) 29.6%(8/27), 71.4%(5/7)

mcmcsalot

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Re: M96: Fibonacci Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #717 on: March 14, 2017, 05:45:04 pm »

Twm you just seem to be overly concerned with where we are looking for our lynch target. This is why I would consider you a lurker. Rather than commenting on if you think one of idp/dylan is scum, or making a case on someone on wagon you have just voiced concern over where we are looking.

Perhaps you have a good theory, scum is trying to coerce town into lynching between a small group of people that contains town. That's a thought, then you need to go through and do the work, see who has initiated the off wagon suspicion, who has agreed/disagreed, have the votes of those players and the prior reeds of those players been consistent with what they are currently pushing or not. Then present that info to town so we can analyze see if we think your right and maybe form a wagon on someone

That makes sense. I get what you are saying, but man, I just haven't had the time to go and do the work. Especially when I feel like when I come on, I have to defend myself to an extent from people who want to arbitrarily lynch a "lurker" who was off-wagon.

I would love to go back and actually see if my theory makes sense and I hope to at some point today, unless someone decides it is a good idea to do a quick hammer again.

And honestly. I just haven't seen a whole lot on first read that has really caught my eye. Last game, it was easier to an extent. I could just force it as scum. Arbitrarily decide something was scummy or sheep someone else and then state it as such and all was good for the most part. This game, between being town and having little time it hasn't been very optimal to putting reads out there.
So I don't want to turn this into a debate because it's not helpful but here's my main issue with this. You say it's frustrating because when you do come on you feel like you have to defend yourself from people arbitrarily wanting to lynch a lurker off wagon. Okay that's understandable but let's do the work, who's arbitrarily saying we should lynch off wagon, I want to lynch off wagon because of the very specific and quick way that the Joseph wagon came to be, in my opinion it is different than many wagons and we will have a better chance of finding scum off wagon. Now let's do the work and see how you defended yourself, well you basically just apologized for lurking you didn't explain maybe why you were off wagon yesterday or any other real defense. Then you go on to say you would love to go back and see if your theory works and say you hope to today. Why does that feel to me like you are not going to have the time today, and then you will feel the game has moved on too far past where your analysis would help and that's where your wrong. If you are town I don't want you getting stuck in a rut thinking you don't have the time to craft a case because by the time you put it together it will be irrelevant. If it means you will post content, post whatever the content you have, when you have it, don't waste time worrying it's not going to help or thinking you should be catching up and talking about current things.
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Wins: M19, M21, M23, M24, M26, M39, M91, M94, M102, M104, M107, M114, M115
Losses: M20, M22, M25, M27, M30, M31, M35, M38, M40, M42, M46, M60, M90, M93, M96, M98, M100, M101, M106, M111, M113
Winrate: 38.2%(13/34) 29.6%(8/27), 71.4%(5/7)

AndrewisFTTW

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Re: M96: Fibonacci Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #718 on: March 14, 2017, 07:06:35 pm »

Catching up on the last couple pages.

Wagon manipulation is the easiest scum tactic. If you're own lead the hunt off it. If you're off lead the hunt on it.

It seems sensible to gullible town either way. I tend to view wagon hunting techniques as scum tactics entirely although clearly I still have to consider wagon compositions for my own analysis as town but try to do so in as much of a vacuum as I can muster.

Yeah, I'm convinced. Not necessarily that scum is doing this this game but that narrowing the lynch pool to those off wagon sounds like a great idea, but it requires you to not pay any mind to anything wagon related, which would be a mistake I think. Besides that, I don't think anyone off wagon is really that scummy.

vote: mcmc

Wagon manipulation is the easiest scum tactic. If you're own lead the hunt off it. If you're off lead the hunt on it.

It seems sensible to gullible town either way. I tend to view wagon hunting techniques as scum tactics entirely although clearly I still have to consider wagon compositions for my own analysis as town but try to do so in as much of a vacuum as I can muster.

Any thoughts on the UB claiming? I haven't seen a downside other than potentially losing a 1-shot Governor tonight and that doesn't seem terrible to me.

Woah I don't think ub claim is good. Mainly because it's nowhere near claim time. And the ub can reverse there own lynch now with the governor shot.

When is claim time? I'd like to set my alarm so I don't miss it.

cool. alignment, though

I don't know. The hammer didn't seem super towny, but people who know PPS better than I do are writing it off as something he does so I don't know what to make of that. Nothing else is screaming scum so I really have no idea.

Can someone who has played lots with idp let me know if he is always this cautious and scared to have an opinion. This is textbook newbie scum continually claiming they are trying but just don't have great reads ect. ect. But it maybe idp has t played lots and mislynched town really badly in a newbie game and is all shell shocked and stuff.

I don't think this is a newbie scum move, there have been games where I had no strong reads for almost the whole game. This could be especially tough for a new player.

Twm you just seem to be overly concerned with where we are looking for our lynch target. This is why I would consider you a lurker. Rather than commenting on if you think one of idp/dylan is scum, or making a case on someone on wagon you have just voiced concern over where we are looking.

Perhaps you have a good theory, scum is trying to coerce town into lynching between a small group of people that contains town. That's a thought, then you need to go through and do the work, see who has initiated the off wagon suspicion, who has agreed/disagreed, have the votes of those players and the prior reeds of those players been consistent with what they are currently pushing or not. Then present that info to town so we can analyze see if we think your right and maybe form a wagon on someone

That makes sense. I get what you are saying, but man, I just haven't had the time to go and do the work. Especially when I feel like when I come on, I have to defend myself to an extent from people who want to arbitrarily lynch a "lurker" who was off-wagon.

I would love to go back and actually see if my theory makes sense and I hope to at some point today, unless someone decides it is a good idea to do a quick hammer again.

And honestly. I just haven't seen a whole lot on first read that has really caught my eye. Last game, it was easier to an extent. I could just force it as scum. Arbitrarily decide something was scummy or sheep someone else and then state it as such and all was good for the most part. This game, between being town and having little time it hasn't been very optimal to putting reads out there.


Starting to think I'm really not cut out for this game. Because nothing makes any sense. Ever. I've yet to have a correct read. Sure, I've gotten alignments correct, but that'll happen statistically and something's always been off.

Not sure what to think about this. Yes I can sympathize with what he's saying but this isn't his first game. BUT I could see him saying this on his first game as scum (is this your first game as scum?).

I'm pretty much null on ICPjuggalo but I'm leaning town enough to be very hard pressed to lynch him today.
i hope you realize that this is having your cake & eating it if you two are partners

hopefully, you realize that were I scum I simply would never say such a thing about my partner.

Would you quickhammer town D1 as scum? I thought it'd be best to ask you first.

So I just reread the entire game, and mcmc and eevee seemed way too buddy-buddy for mutually town-reading each other if you didn't actually have something concrete to assure you the other person was also town.  Even when I am town reading someone, I recognize the fact I could be wrong and take everything with a grain of salt, but you guys don't seem to have done that at all. So I wouldn't definitely want to lynch one of the two of you. Also, after the hammer on Joseph, there were 3 conftowns (to me) on mcmc's wagon. Andrew and PPS were the last two on that moved if I remember correctly.  If mcmc is town, then I would want to lynch one of Andrew or PPS; not sure which yet, but would lean Andrew just because pps has seemed otherwise towny aside from the quickhammer (which, again, he would definitely still do as town, sadly).  If mcmc is scum, I'd stake my in game life on Eevee being scum too.

I haven't really noticed mcmc/Eevee buddying specifically. To me it looked like mcmc was buddying a few people, especially with that whole private twilight study group that he created for some reason, putting the FOS on IDPTG (I think) for posting during the study group's allotted time. Can you post a few examples you found of them buddying? Also, you have 3 conf!towns? What? Who and why? And your reason for lynching me if mcmc is town is because "pps has seemed otherwise towny". So there's nothing you find particularly scummy about me, I just happened to be the L-2 vote and that's enough? So confused with this whole thing.

Quote from: Dylan32
Someone was wanting to know what I thought about the suspicious on me I think.  I think given how low my post count is, it is at least understandable, but from the little experience I have, lynching low post count people hits inactive town WAY more than it hits lurking scum, because scum is more careful to contribute at least somewhat regularly. I would probably go so far as to speculate that statistically scum is most likely to be in the mid-range band of post counts because they know lurking is the stereotypical scum tell, but higher post counts are more risky (but also can pay off more; e.g. scum!mcmc driving--if not this game--previous games).

According to this lurking is stereotypically scummy, so scum is usually in the mid-range of post counts, unless they're very active like scum!mcmc in previous games. Ok. I'll agree that we should just be targeting lurkers just because they're lurking but I don't think we are. We were looking at people off wagon and all 3 of them happened to be lurkers of some sort. I know this might upset TWM but I think my definition of lurking is a little different than yours, though I could be wrong about it.

Twm you just seem to be overly concerned with where we are looking for our lynch target. This is why I would consider you a lurker. Rather than commenting on if you think one of idp/dylan is scum, or making a case on someone on wagon you have just voiced concern over where we are looking.

Perhaps you have a good theory, scum is trying to coerce town into lynching between a small group of people that contains town. That's a thought, then you need to go through and do the work, see who has initiated the off wagon suspicion, who has agreed/disagreed, have the votes of those players and the prior reeds of those players been consistent with what they are currently pushing or not. Then present that info to town so we can analyze see if we think your right and maybe form a wagon on someone

That makes sense. I get what you are saying, but man, I just haven't had the time to go and do the work. Especially when I feel like when I come on, I have to defend myself to an extent from people who want to arbitrarily lynch a "lurker" who was off-wagon.

I would love to go back and actually see if my theory makes sense and I hope to at some point today, unless someone decides it is a good idea to do a quick hammer again.

And honestly. I just haven't seen a whole lot on first read that has really caught my eye. Last game, it was easier to an extent. I could just force it as scum. Arbitrarily decide something was scummy or sheep someone else and then state it as such and all was good for the most part. This game, between being town and having little time it hasn't been very optimal to putting reads out there.
So I don't want to turn this into a debate because it's not helpful but here's my main issue with this. You say it's frustrating because when you do come on you feel like you have to defend yourself from people arbitrarily wanting to lynch a lurker off wagon. Okay that's understandable but let's do the work, who's arbitrarily saying we should lynch off wagon, I want to lynch off wagon because of the very specific and quick way that the Joseph wagon came to be, in my opinion it is different than many wagons and we will have a better chance of finding scum off wagon. Now let's do the work and see how you defended yourself, well you basically just apologized for lurking you didn't explain maybe why you were off wagon yesterday or any other real defense. Then you go on to say you would love to go back and see if your theory works and say you hope to today. Why does that feel to me like you are not going to have the time today, and then you will feel the game has moved on too far past where your analysis would help and that's where your wrong. If you are town I don't want you getting stuck in a rut thinking you don't have the time to craft a case because by the time you put it together it will be irrelevant. If it means you will post content, post whatever the content you have, when you have it, don't waste time worrying it's not going to help or thinking you should be catching up and talking about current things.

The part I bolded jumped out at me. Why does TWM need to explain why he was off wagon yesterday? Do Dylan and IDPTG need to explain it too? Or just TWM?

By the way I was rereading a little and found this:

By the way I was rereading a little bit and I found this:


i would like to lynch eevee
I think I get why but I'm curious for you to elaborate, I actually have eevee as towny currently.
i would prefer not to elaborate at this time

Do you still feel this was schadd? If so would you elaborate and if not would you at least tell us what you were thinking at the time?
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MVPs: M97
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The_Wine_Merchant

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Re: M96: Fibonacci Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #719 on: March 14, 2017, 07:09:01 pm »

I don't thnk we are in a debate. Like I said I get town vibes from you for this. And see some points to what you say. I hadn't noted or thought of your point about how the wagon formed. Thinking of that more the main scenario I see for all scum being on wagon is if PPS is mafia himself. And that is something that has been discussed a bit. I personally didn't love his hammer, he says some good came out of it, but many of the good parts would have happened with any hammer at any stage of the game, but it certainly negatively impacted me (and possibly others?) and my ability to get into the game (not that he could have known that or should have cared if he did) as generally weekends are when I am the most free.

But again, I feel that unnecessarily constrains where to look. Maybe that is your issue? I am still figuring out where to look when I have the time. You want me to have looked already as you feel you have established the where. Expectations vs reality.

And yes. You make a fair guess that I won't be able to do large scale analysis until the weekend. Of course I'll still post as I am able.

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AndrewisFTTW

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Re: M96: Fibonacci Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #720 on: March 14, 2017, 07:10:10 pm »

Sorry for the super messy post, here it is cleaned up a little:

Catching up on the last couple pages.

Wagon manipulation is the easiest scum tactic. If you're own lead the hunt off it. If you're off lead the hunt on it.

It seems sensible to gullible town either way. I tend to view wagon hunting techniques as scum tactics entirely although clearly I still have to consider wagon compositions for my own analysis as town but try to do so in as much of a vacuum as I can muster.

Yeah, I'm convinced. Not necessarily that scum is doing this this game but that narrowing the lynch pool to those off wagon sounds like a great idea, but it requires you to not pay any mind to anything wagon related, which would be a mistake I think. Besides that, I don't think anyone off wagon is really that scummy.

vote: mcmc

Wagon manipulation is the easiest scum tactic. If you're own lead the hunt off it. If you're off lead the hunt on it.

It seems sensible to gullible town either way. I tend to view wagon hunting techniques as scum tactics entirely although clearly I still have to consider wagon compositions for my own analysis as town but try to do so in as much of a vacuum as I can muster.

Any thoughts on the UB claiming? I haven't seen a downside other than potentially losing a 1-shot Governor tonight and that doesn't seem terrible to me.

Woah I don't think ub claim is good. Mainly because it's nowhere near claim time. And the ub can reverse there own lynch now with the governor shot.

When is claim time? I'd like to set my alarm so I don't miss it.

cool. alignment, though

I don't know. The hammer didn't seem super towny, but people who know PPS better than I do are writing it off as something he does so I don't know what to make of that. Nothing else is screaming scum so I really have no idea.

Can someone who has played lots with idp let me know if he is always this cautious and scared to have an opinion. This is textbook newbie scum continually claiming they are trying but just don't have great reads ect. ect. But it maybe idp has t played lots and mislynched town really badly in a newbie game and is all shell shocked and stuff.

I don't think this is a newbie scum move, there have been games where I had no strong reads for almost the whole game. This could be especially tough for a new player.

Starting to think I'm really not cut out for this game. Because nothing makes any sense. Ever. I've yet to have a correct read. Sure, I've gotten alignments correct, but that'll happen statistically and something's always been off.

Not sure what to think about this. Yes I can sympathize with what he's saying but this isn't his first game. BUT I could see him saying this on his first game as scum (is this your first game as scum?).

I'm pretty much null on ICPjuggalo but I'm leaning town enough to be very hard pressed to lynch him today.
i hope you realize that this is having your cake & eating it if you two are partners

hopefully, you realize that were I scum I simply would never say such a thing about my partner.

Would you quickhammer town D1 as scum? I thought it'd be best to ask you first.

So I just reread the entire game, and mcmc and eevee seemed way too buddy-buddy for mutually town-reading each other if you didn't actually have something concrete to assure you the other person was also town.  Even when I am town reading someone, I recognize the fact I could be wrong and take everything with a grain of salt, but you guys don't seem to have done that at all. So I wouldn't definitely want to lynch one of the two of you. Also, after the hammer on Joseph, there were 3 conftowns (to me) on mcmc's wagon. Andrew and PPS were the last two on that moved if I remember correctly.  If mcmc is town, then I would want to lynch one of Andrew or PPS; not sure which yet, but would lean Andrew just because pps has seemed otherwise towny aside from the quickhammer (which, again, he would definitely still do as town, sadly).  If mcmc is scum, I'd stake my in game life on Eevee being scum too.

I haven't really noticed mcmc/Eevee buddying specifically. To me it looked like mcmc was buddying a few people, especially with that whole private twilight study group that he created for some reason, putting the FOS on IDPTG (I think) for posting during the study group's allotted time. Can you post a few examples you found of them buddying? Also, you have 3 conf!towns? What? Who and why? And your reason for lynching me if mcmc is town is because "pps has seemed otherwise towny". So there's nothing you find particularly scummy about me, I just happened to be the L-2 vote and that's enough? So confused with this whole thing.

Quote from: Dylan32
Someone was wanting to know what I thought about the suspicious on me I think.  I think given how low my post count is, it is at least understandable, but from the little experience I have, lynching low post count people hits inactive town WAY more than it hits lurking scum, because scum is more careful to contribute at least somewhat regularly. I would probably go so far as to speculate that statistically scum is most likely to be in the mid-range band of post counts because they know lurking is the stereotypical scum tell, but higher post counts are more risky (but also can pay off more; e.g. scum!mcmc driving--if not this game--previous games).

According to this lurking is stereotypically scummy, so scum is usually in the mid-range of post counts, unless they're very active like scum!mcmc in previous games. Ok. I'll agree that we should just be targeting lurkers just because they're lurking but I don't think we are. We were looking at people off wagon and all 3 of them happened to be lurkers of some sort. I know this might upset TWM but I think my definition of lurking is a little different than yours, though I could be wrong about it.

Twm you just seem to be overly concerned with where we are looking for our lynch target. This is why I would consider you a lurker. Rather than commenting on if you think one of idp/dylan is scum, or making a case on someone on wagon you have just voiced concern over where we are looking.

Perhaps you have a good theory, scum is trying to coerce town into lynching between a small group of people that contains town. That's a thought, then you need to go through and do the work, see who has initiated the off wagon suspicion, who has agreed/disagreed, have the votes of those players and the prior reeds of those players been consistent with what they are currently pushing or not. Then present that info to town so we can analyze see if we think your right and maybe form a wagon on someone

That makes sense. I get what you are saying, but man, I just haven't had the time to go and do the work. Especially when I feel like when I come on, I have to defend myself to an extent from people who want to arbitrarily lynch a "lurker" who was off-wagon.

I would love to go back and actually see if my theory makes sense and I hope to at some point today, unless someone decides it is a good idea to do a quick hammer again.

And honestly. I just haven't seen a whole lot on first read that has really caught my eye. Last game, it was easier to an extent. I could just force it as scum. Arbitrarily decide something was scummy or sheep someone else and then state it as such and all was good for the most part. This game, between being town and having little time it hasn't been very optimal to putting reads out there.
So I don't want to turn this into a debate because it's not helpful but here's my main issue with this. You say it's frustrating because when you do come on you feel like you have to defend yourself from people arbitrarily wanting to lynch a lurker off wagon. Okay that's understandable but let's do the work, who's arbitrarily saying we should lynch off wagon, I want to lynch off wagon because of the very specific and quick way that the Joseph wagon came to be, in my opinion it is different than many wagons and we will have a better chance of finding scum off wagon. Now let's do the work and see how you defended yourself, well you basically just apologized for lurking you didn't explain maybe why you were off wagon yesterday or any other real defense. Then you go on to say you would love to go back and see if your theory works and say you hope to today. Why does that feel to me like you are not going to have the time today, and then you will feel the game has moved on too far past where your analysis would help and that's where your wrong. If you are town I don't want you getting stuck in a rut thinking you don't have the time to craft a case because by the time you put it together it will be irrelevant. If it means you will post content, post whatever the content you have, when you have it, don't waste time worrying it's not going to help or thinking you should be catching up and talking about current things.

The part I bolded jumped out at me. Why does TWM need to explain why he was off wagon yesterday? Do Dylan and IDPTG need to explain it too? Or just TWM?

By the way I was rereading a little and found this:


i would like to lynch eevee
I think I get why but I'm curious for you to elaborate, I actually have eevee as towny currently.
i would prefer not to elaborate at this time

Do you still feel this was schadd? If so would you elaborate and if not would you at least tell us what you were thinking at the time?
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MVPs: M97
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The_Wine_Merchant

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Re: M96: Fibonacci Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #721 on: March 14, 2017, 07:11:57 pm »

I glossed over the part that Andrew highlighted above. That is a weird question for me to answer, why I was off wagon. I fail to see how that is relevant.

But to answer the question: I was offline and voting for Dylan when the wagon took off and ended.
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AndrewisFTTW

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Re: M96: Fibonacci Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #722 on: March 14, 2017, 07:17:35 pm »

I don't thnk we are in a debate. Like I said I get town vibes from you for this. And see some points to what you say. I hadn't noted or thought of your point about how the wagon formed. Thinking of that more the main scenario I see for all scum being on wagon is if PPS is mafia himself. And that is something that has been discussed a bit. I personally didn't love his hammer, he says some good came out of it, but many of the good parts would have happened with any hammer at any stage of the game, but it certainly negatively impacted me (and possibly others?) and my ability to get into the game (not that he could have known that or should have cared if he did) as generally weekends are when I am the most free.

I personally agree with schadd that the quickhammer didn't benefit town. Like I've said before nobody would ever think of doing a quickhammer D1 as scum so I feel like pps has gotten off the hook by doing it. Quick and easy D1 town kill while gaining towncred. I get a super scummy vibe from it and would like to lynch him today if mcmc doesn't happen.
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pingpongsam

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Re: M96: Fibonacci Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #723 on: March 14, 2017, 08:14:59 pm »

I would not quickhammer as scum on D1. I would hammer for sure but I'd follow intent to hammer protocol.
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Witherweaver

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Re: M96: Fibonacci Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #724 on: March 14, 2017, 09:05:04 pm »

I would not quickhammer as scum on D1. I would hammer for sure but I'd follow intent to hammer protocol.

But <sig>
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