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Author Topic: M96: Fibonacci Mafia (Game over! Scum won!)  (Read 157874 times)

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Eevee

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Re: M96: Fibonacci Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #600 on: March 13, 2017, 12:32:08 pm »

Ok I just reread IDPTG from the beginning of D1 through twilight and found nothing of note. His posting was so sporadic, there were a couple setup comments about the UB, a couple comments about not lynching ash, a couple "stop joking" posts, and that's pretty much it. Null.

DAMA = Drunk, ask me anything

Right, thanks.
At this point, I don't think "no posts of note" should make someone null anymore.
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AndrewisFTTW

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Re: M96: Fibonacci Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #601 on: March 13, 2017, 12:45:27 pm »

So far, I don't really think there has been anything that scummy from anyone. I could definitely see a possible scum narrative for Ash, but I just don't think it is as likely as him being town.  Mcmc's concern, whether accurate or not, seems townie. schadd seems like schadd, so at least we know noone has kidnapped him and taken his place.

This post is voteable (word I just made up)

Vote: Dylan

Another vote with no content. Lame.

Mcmc loves being scum, and will always put in more effort when he is scum.  Look at any scum QT with him in it, ever.

He didn't in the game I was in with him. I asked schadd to prod him about 5 times in my personal QT.

This is interesting. To anyone else who knows scum!mcmc, is this true?

based purely off of memory and then going back to the list of players, I am leaning toward one of the following: ww, dylan, IDontplay and schadd and maaaaybe ash?

So I guess those are people I should look at more specifically

I think this is a list of people he wouldn't mind lynching? Scummy.

Ok. I at least know what happened now. I see little incentive to keep posting reads and stuff here for town. I feel like any further information we have can be saved til Day2 without letting mafia benefit from it going into the night.

I think the more OMGUS we give to mafia going into night the better.

oops, wrong acronym there. Not OMGUS, but WIFOM. You'd think with my username I would have remembered that better.

Not sure how I feel about this. Telling town to stop discussing things is scummy, but I think what he's saying is it was post-lynch and the damage had been done, and there's nothing town can do until D2 with further discussion whereas scum can use it to better narrow down who they want to kill N1 (though it looks like that didn't go so well). I think this is more pro-town than anything.

Slight scum read on TWM but there's so little to go on. Most of his other posts were one sentence, a few apologizing for not being around.
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Losses: M40, M43, M45, BM17 (?), RMM13, RMM17, RMM20, NM7, ZM18, M100, M109
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AndrewisFTTW

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Re: M96: Fibonacci Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #602 on: March 13, 2017, 12:49:02 pm »

Why is that towny? I think scum is more likely to throw vague suspicions around (and I also think that regardless of his alignment mcmc probably just didn't see the question, I don't think scummcmc-would try to dodge like that).

I actually reread Dylan before my vote, but just didn't have time to type a longer post. I saw low activity (most of the 15 posts were not game-related) non-towny voting, I particularly disagreed with him suspecting mcmc as the main contribution because I thought mcmc looked towny all day.

There are better ways to create vague suspicion. I don't think part of any scum's plan, experienced or not, is to check the online status and report on it. Town all day.

Not sure what you're referring to in your second point.
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Wins: M39, M41, M48, M96, M97, M102, M105
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Eevee

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Re: M96: Fibonacci Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #603 on: March 13, 2017, 12:53:09 pm »

My vote on Dylan (and it's reasons).

Why do you think town is more likely to do online status policing than scum?

I don't know if there is any precedent, but my intuition would be that scum would be more likely to be on the lookout for these kind of "mishaps" that could make someone suspicious than town.
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AndrewisFTTW

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Re: M96: Fibonacci Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #604 on: March 13, 2017, 01:12:00 pm »

My vote on Dylan (and it's reasons).

Why do you think town is more likely to do online status policing than scum?

I don't know if there is any precedent, but my intuition would be that scum would be more likely to be on the lookout for these kind of "mishaps" that could make someone suspicious than town.

So you're voting Dylan because he thought mcmc was scum and you disagreed? What?

Sure they're on the lookout but I would think they're also more wary about the cases they make and I don't think they would be so quick to point out something so negligible. Although I guess there's an argument to made that if they were so easily baited by ash then they're also capable of something like this.
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Wins: M39, M41, M48, M96, M97, M102, M105
Losses: M40, M43, M45, BM17 (?), RMM13, RMM17, RMM20, NM7, ZM18, M100, M109
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mcmcsalot

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Re: M96: Fibonacci Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #605 on: March 13, 2017, 01:27:08 pm »

Yes

Vote: WW

Vote: mcmc

Vote: Dylan

Vote: Dylan

I mean, maybe it's just me but I like to see some substance from votes.

Also, I like Robz's idea of there being scum off wagon. There's no way the whole scum team was on the lynch wagon yesterday. I'll do a reread.

Simple, I already had suspicions on mcmc and now I know that his wagon yesterday had 3 confirmed (to me) town on it. Also, mcmc was on wagon for the Jacob mislynch (yeah, so was I but we're talking about from my perspective).
How is dylan confirmed town to you?
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IDontPlayThisGame

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Re: M96: Fibonacci Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #606 on: March 13, 2017, 01:54:48 pm »

I don't know how much I support it, but I could get behind a Dylan lynch. I agree with the assumption that not every scum was on the mislynch wagon, so {me, Dylan, TWM} seems like a good place to look for now. If we take that assumption to be true, there's at least a 50% of lynching scum randomly or 33% if you include me in that pool (and obviously I'm not). My understanding is that a 50-50 lynch is good for town.

As for why Dylan over TWM, his post about mcmc's online status would be a strike in my eyes regardless, but he also cited a question that was asked conditionally and I find it hard to believe it was asked seriously. I'm sure most of you haven't read it any time recently, but the f.ds mafia terminology thread includes the DAMA term with a note that people may admit to being scum. It's a ridiculous question and a ridiculous response to it not being answered.

I intended to find a little more against Dylan, but reviewing his posts didn't leave me with much. Similarly, a review of TWM went the same. So I guess I could get behind either of them. However, this requires accepting the assumption that there's at least one scum in the three of us.

PPE: 1 - I agree with mcmc. Why is Dylan confirmed town, pps?

IDontPlayThisGame

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Re: M96: Fibonacci Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #607 on: March 13, 2017, 01:58:50 pm »

I think it's worth noting that scum may have seen three lurkers off-wagon and all stayed on wagon with the intent of seeing one of us lynched. We're also the three least experienced players (IIRC).

Eevee

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Re: M96: Fibonacci Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #608 on: March 13, 2017, 02:22:01 pm »

I'm voting Dylan for the low activity combined with the low amount of meaningful content. From my perspective as a townie who didn't agree with the case on mcmc, I'm a tad more suspicious of someone who wanted to make that lynch.

It's likely there is at least 1 scum off the wagon, but it's also likely there is at least in 1 scum in any subset of 3 people at this point. While I think IDPTG and WM are good options to look at, I don't think we should put that much stock into only them being off-wagon. Crazier things have happened.
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schadd

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Re: M96: Fibonacci Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #609 on: March 13, 2017, 02:31:42 pm »

idptg, could you explain to me why it would make sense that one scum is of wagon?
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pingpongsam

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Re: M96: Fibonacci Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #610 on: March 13, 2017, 02:34:02 pm »

PPE: 1 - I agree with mcmc. Why is Dylan confirmed town, pps?

He isn't, but I am to me. My point being when mcmc wagon was a growin' and I was on it it wouldn't really go anywhere and got poo poo'd for being too early to get so big blah blah.

So we mislynched Jacob instead.

That mcmc wagon was over half town for sure (to me). Makes me think it stagnated and was derailed by skim skam scum, namely mcmc hisscumself.
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mcmcsalot

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Re: M96: Fibonacci Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #611 on: March 13, 2017, 02:43:18 pm »

PPE: 1 - I agree with mcmc. Why is Dylan confirmed town, pps?

He isn't, but I am to me. My point being when mcmc wagon was a growin' and I was on it it wouldn't really go anywhere and got poo poo'd for being too early to get so big blah blah.

So we mislynched Jacob instead.

That mcmc wagon was over half town for sure (to me). Makes me think it stagnated and was derailed by skim skam scum, namely mcmc hisscumself.

Yay, this here kids is the beginning of what we call a "case". I don't even mind that it's on me, pps now if you go do the second leg and figure out who poo poo'd my wagon and pushed the tide toward Joseph. Who moved between the two wagons and why. Then if it still points towards me being scummy I can try to defend myself and help explain things.
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Losses: M20, M22, M25, M27, M30, M31, M35, M38, M40, M42, M46, M60, M90, M93, M96, M98, M100, M101, M106, M111, M113
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pingpongsam

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Re: M96: Fibonacci Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #612 on: March 13, 2017, 02:45:47 pm »

PPE: 1 - I agree with mcmc. Why is Dylan confirmed town, pps?

He isn't, but I am to me. My point being when mcmc wagon was a growin' and I was on it it wouldn't really go anywhere and got poo poo'd for being too early to get so big blah blah.

So we mislynched Jacob instead.

That mcmc wagon was over half town for sure (to me). Makes me think it stagnated and was derailed by skim skam scum, namely mcmc hisscumself.

Yay, this here kids is the beginning of what we call a "case". I don't even mind that it's on me, pps now if you go do the second leg and figure out who poo poo'd my wagon and pushed the tide toward Joseph. Who moved between the two wagons and why. Then if it still points towards me being scummy I can try to defend myself and help explain things.

Um, you were first on the Jacob wagon... but I'll follow up on the rest.
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pingpongsam

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Re: M96: Fibonacci Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #613 on: March 13, 2017, 02:47:51 pm »

Actually, I think Eevee started it, he just didn't end up on it... I believe mcmc was second on it.
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pingpongsam

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Re: M96: Fibonacci Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #614 on: March 13, 2017, 02:51:06 pm »

eevee definitely fought the mcmc wagon. I dunno if eevee partners that hard. I know I sure as hell do not, like ever, never, ever, not even a little bit sometimes. In fact, I'm such an anti partner that my scumpartnertell is the one guy I'm just not talking about or interacting with but still willing to vote. This is so much the case that I really never consider that other players would do such a thing.
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pingpongsam

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Re: M96: Fibonacci Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #615 on: March 13, 2017, 02:52:53 pm »

Eevee L-2'd Joseph although he initially forsook being first on the vote list because it was "leftover RVS".

I'm not sure scum does that, either.
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mcmcsalot

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Re: M96: Fibonacci Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #616 on: March 13, 2017, 04:22:38 pm »

Vote Count 1.3

IDontPlayThisGame (1): Witherweaver
Witherweaver (1): mcmcsalot
mcmcsalot (3+1): Dylan32, AndrewisFTTW, ashersky, Robz888
Eevee (2): schadd, Joseph2302
The_Wine_Merchant (1): pingpongsam
Joseph2302 (1): Eevee

Not Voting (2): The_Wine_Merchant, IDontPlayThisGame

With 13-1 alive, it takes 5+2 to lynch. Day 1 ends Saturday, Mar. 13-2 at 8+1pm forum time.

Around this time I make some defenses of myself and Robz/eevee/witherweaver/schaad all defend me in some way or another for what I think are good reasons.

Dylan, pps, and Andrew all post reasons they find me scummy.

Next ashersky and I get into a bit and I begin to omgus him and witherweaver and robz both point out how much this looks like town on town and that they don't want to lynch either of us. This almond with TWM coming in and townreading me as well seems to stall my wagon and I turn away from ash toward Joseph for being unhelpful and scummy.

Eevee suggests looking into the lowcontent posters but doesn't and then asks what the case is on Joseph.

Vote Count 1.3+1

IDontPlayThisGame (1): Witherweaver
mcmcsalot (3+1): Dylan32, AndrewisFTTW, ashersky, pingpongsam
Eevee (1): schadd
Joseph2302 (2): Eevee, mcmcsalot
Dylan32 (1): The_Wine_Merchant
pingpongsam (1): Joseph2302

Not Voting (2): IDontPlayThisGame, Robz888

With 13-1 alive, it takes 5+2 to lynch. Day 1 ends Saturday, Mar. 13-2 at 8+1pm forum time.
Vote: mcmx

L-2
I believe this is the height of my wagon. And right after this robz/ww/schadd/eevee vote for Joseph. This feel a ton like townies honestly not liking the wagon on me getting so close to lynch without another option and so the person I'm pushing makes sense to join. This is what evens our wagons out.

It is then with this vote that andrew finally changes his opinion and moves his vote away from me and onto Joseph, quickly followed by pps who hammers a few posts after having said he would agree to disagree about my alignment.

The real people who had strange inorganic movements here are andrew and pps. The issue is that Joseph was acting increasingly scummy so it's very possible that's the actual moments that town!andrew and town!pps had had enough.
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Wins: M19, M21, M23, M24, M26, M39, M91, M94, M102, M104, M107, M114, M115
Losses: M20, M22, M25, M27, M30, M31, M35, M38, M40, M42, M46, M60, M90, M93, M96, M98, M100, M101, M106, M111, M113
Winrate: 38.2%(13/34) 29.6%(8/27), 71.4%(5/7)

pingpongsam

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Re: M96: Fibonacci Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #617 on: March 13, 2017, 04:38:29 pm »

I don't currently disagree with your analysis. I'm still voting you because it was originally a good idea and then the fact that out of 5 voters on you yesterday 3 are confirmed town for me.

That doesn't mean you are scum, though. If you are scum, you're playing a damned good game of it. As a a matter of fact, that was the original basis for my suspicion. Now, I do hate to get mislynched when I'm driving the game which is why I've tried to back off on driving the game. But scum has to drive the game. What is especially good is for scum to get early attention so they can use it to drive the game exactly as you are doing; to color all the targets in an ambivalent light.

So, essentially, my vote is for your strict adherance to my SOP as scum. All that said, I made it my SOP precisely because it is damned near impossible to fully uncover as scum.
The only thing that keeps it from being carbon copy PPS is to have bussed the shit out of your partner but even then I only do that when they get themselves into hot water to start with and am more inclined to encourage them to bus me instead.
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IDontPlayThisGame

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Re: M96: Fibonacci Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #618 on: March 13, 2017, 04:46:06 pm »

idptg, could you explain to me why it would make sense that one scum is of wagon?

Are you asking me to justify it or why I'm going with it?

mcmcsalot

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Re: M96: Fibonacci Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #619 on: March 13, 2017, 04:55:01 pm »

Yea I think the big bummer in this game is that after what was pretty much a complete reread of the days major wagons and how they formed, I feel like I have solid town reads on robz/schadd/ww they have me pegged as town which is correct, they pegged ash correctly as town, their votes for the dead townie Joseph all make sense. I then have decent narratives for pps, eevee, and Andrew which I could see going either way, town or scum and then I have TWM, idp, and dylan which are all so null due to how little they posted it's impossible to figure out which way to tilt the narratives for pps/andrew/eevee.

It's like pps/andrew/idp could very easily be the scum team. Idp is lurky off wagon, pps and Andrew were pushing for the lynch of an active townie, didn't overly discourage people from moving to ashersky, and finally left all prior reads and hammered townie!joseph. That's one narrative that makes good sense and I could see being true.

The issue being twm/dylan/eevee could also be the scum team with eevee buddying me much the way I buddied faust recently, get an active townie to push lynches for you, didn't come to much bigger conclusions than anyone else, and have his scum partners just lurk the entire day away.

Now being forced to pick between these types of narratives(these aren't the only two teams just examples) I absolutely don't want to punish active town andrew and pps for having slightly different opinions than me, especially because mine were wrong about Joseph in the first place. I would much rather lose to pps and andrew because twm and Dylan and idp just lurked way to hard as town. If that makes sense.
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Wins: M19, M21, M23, M24, M26, M39, M91, M94, M102, M104, M107, M114, M115
Losses: M20, M22, M25, M27, M30, M31, M35, M38, M40, M42, M46, M60, M90, M93, M96, M98, M100, M101, M106, M111, M113
Winrate: 38.2%(13/34) 29.6%(8/27), 71.4%(5/7)

Witherweaver

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Re: M96: Fibonacci Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #620 on: March 13, 2017, 04:55:33 pm »

I wouldn't go so far as to say I have you pegged as town.
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mcmcsalot

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Re: M96: Fibonacci Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #621 on: March 13, 2017, 04:57:27 pm »

I wouldn't go so far as to say I have you pegged as town.

Well you did advocate for me vs ash being town/town and did say you didn't want to lynch me yesterday. Though I guess it is true you haven't given me as much town cred as say eevee or even schadd have.

Either way I definitely think you are town.
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Wins: M19, M21, M23, M24, M26, M39, M91, M94, M102, M104, M107, M114, M115
Losses: M20, M22, M25, M27, M30, M31, M35, M38, M40, M42, M46, M60, M90, M93, M96, M98, M100, M101, M106, M111, M113
Winrate: 38.2%(13/34) 29.6%(8/27), 71.4%(5/7)

schadd

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Re: M96: Fibonacci Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #622 on: March 13, 2017, 05:16:31 pm »

idptg, could you explain to me why it would make sense that one scum is of wagon?

Are you asking me to justify it or why I'm going with it?
justify it (i think? i want you to explain to me why you think it's likely that there was a scum off wagon in this game D1)
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Robz888

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Re: M96: Fibonacci Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #623 on: March 13, 2017, 05:18:31 pm »

I wouldn't go so far as to say I have you pegged as town.

Ditto
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schadd

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Re: M96: Fibonacci Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #624 on: March 13, 2017, 05:36:50 pm »

i would go so far!
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