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[Awaclus]

I am not lynching from the VTs.

You might have to.

There is someone who is confirmed scum to me.

According to my wincon, it is not in my best interest to lynch among the VTs.

I understand that, but this setup is kind of weird and it allows for situations where you have to lynch someone who isn't confirmed scum even when someone else is. After all, you're the only one who knows for sure that LaLight is scum, and we can't afford to lynch him just to check unless we really think he is scum.

[pacovf]

I am not lynching from the VTs.

You might have to.

There is someone who is confirmed scum to me.

According to my wincon, it is not in my best interest to lynch among the VTs.

You will have to lynch among the VTs either today or tomorrow. For all townies other than Beetle, it's better to lynch first from among the VTs, so the best you can do, as town, is to get your vote somewhere useful, so that scum has less control over who gets lynched.

[Roadrunner7671]

I was under the impression that everyone was cool with lynching LaLight and Jake. Then Kubo votes for SA and we all lose it.

The only reason that I wouldn't lynch LaLight is if I really thought someone was the Moon King.
PPE

[pacovf]

I am not lynching from the VTs.

You might have to.

There is someone who is confirmed scum to me.

According to my wincon, it is not in my best interest to lynch among the VTs.

This sounds like such a scum-trying-to-pretend-like-he's-in-the-mindset-of-really-having-his-fakeclaim thing to say :/

Maybe, but let's try to avoid analyzing RR/LL's posts, or else we will end up convincing ourselves that's the best place to lynch.

[pacovf]

I was under the impression that everyone was cool with lynching LaLight and Jake. Then Kubo votes for SA and we all lose it.

The only reason that I wouldn't lynch LaLight is if I really thought someone was the Moon King.
PPE

Please see:

You will have to lynch among the VTs either today or tomorrow. For all townies other than Beetle, it's better to lynch first from among the VTs, so the best you can do, as town, is to get your vote somewhere useful, so that scum has less control over who gets lynched.

[Witherweaver]

I was under the impression that everyone was cool with lynching LaLight and Jake. Then Kubo votes for SA and we all lose it.

The only reason that I wouldn't lynch LaLight is if I really thought someone was the Moon King.
PPE

Except from your standpoint, Sister is just as good as Moon King.

[Roadrunner7671]

There probably won't be a tomorrow if we mislynch a VT today. If we lynch LaLight today and I get NKed, tomorrow looks like (SA, Pacovf, Gkrieg, WW, Jake, Awaclus)
Hopefully one will claim Monkey and we'll have 2 ICs.

And for all townies other than Beetle it's better to lynch among the VTs first. This may be true, but I don't fall into that category.
PPE

[Roadrunner7671]

I was under the impression that everyone was cool with lynching LaLight and Jake. Then Kubo votes for SA and we all lose it.

The only reason that I wouldn't lynch LaLight is if I really thought someone was the Moon King.
PPE

Except from your standpoint, Sister is just as good as Moon King.

I'm worried people will be persuaded to lynch me over LaLight.

[pacovf]

I was under the impression that everyone was cool with lynching LaLight and Jake. Then Kubo votes for SA and we all lose it.

The only reason that I wouldn't lynch LaLight is if I really thought someone was the Moon King.
PPE

Please see:

You will have to lynch among the VTs either today or tomorrow. For all townies other than Beetle, it's better to lynch first from among the VTs, so the best you can do, as town, is to get your vote somewhere useful, so that scum has less control over who gets lynched.

This goes to Lalight too, by the way. Or, I guess both of them could keep their votes on each other. Does that change anything?

PPE 2

[Awaclus]

The only reason that I wouldn't lynch LaLight is if I really thought someone was the Moon King.

Hey, someone is the Moon King! I don't know who it is, but it's someone for sure. So you don't have to lynch LaLight now!

[Roadrunner7671]

The only reason that I wouldn't lynch LaLight is if I really thought someone was the Moon King.

Hey, someone is the Moon King! I don't know who it is, but it's someone for sure. So you don't have to lynch LaLight now!

It could be LaLight! 

[pacovf]

There probably won't be a tomorrow if we mislynch a VT today.

Probably, but if we mislynch Beetle, there certainly won't be a tomorrow. See the difference?

PS: it's frigging cold where I am. Typing is unnecessarily hard. Ugh.

[Roadrunner7671]

There probably won't be a tomorrow if we mislynch a VT today.

Probably, but if we mislynch Beetle, there certainly won't be a tomorrow. See the difference?

PS: it's frigging cold where I am. Typing is unnecessarily hard. Ugh.

But if we lynch LaLight we just hit scum, we don't mislynch Beetle or a VT.

And let's be real for a second. Assuming I'm Beetle, do you guys really think I'll be able to successfully block?

[Awaclus]

There probably won't be a tomorrow if we mislynch a VT today. If we lynch LaLight today and I get NKed, tomorrow looks like (SA, Pacovf, Gkrieg, WW, Jake, Awaclus)
Hopefully one will claim Monkey and we'll have 2 ICs.

And for all townies other than Beetle it's better to lynch among the VTs first. This may be true, but I don't fall into that category.
PPE

You don't fall into that category, but you still play on the same team and have to cooperate with us. Unless scum is bussing, literally every townie needs to vote for the same person if we want town to win.

[pacovf]

But if we lynch LaLight we just hit scum, we don't mislynch Beetle or a VT.

...nice.

And let's be real for a second. Assuming I'm Beetle, do you guys really think I'll be able to successfully block?

You would have a 20% chance. There is no reason to throw that away.

[Roadrunner7671]

You would have a 20% chance. There is no reason to throw that away.

This is assuming I'd guess randomly. I suspect I might do worse than random.

[pacovf]

Well then, just throw a die. There, problem solved!

[Roadrunner7671]

Well then, just throw a die. There, problem solved!

I'm not sure if you're joking or not, but I'm near that point.

[Awaclus]

I'm pretty sure it's LaLight/Jake/pacovf though.

[Witherweaver]

I'm pretty sure it's LaLight/Jake/pacovf though.

Why not Space?

[pacovf]

Well then, just throw a die. There, problem solved!

I'm not sure if you're joking or not, but I'm near that point.

It's a joke, but I am confused by why you would throw away that chance. Anyway, this conversation is detracting from the actual wagons.

[pacovf]

I'm pretty sure it's LaLight/Jake/pacovf though.

Why not Space?

Sorry sorry I had to

[Awaclus]

I'm pretty sure it's LaLight/Jake/pacovf though.

Why not Space?

Because Jake and pacovf started to be like "let's lynch from the VTs" as soon as everyone wanted to lynch LaLight. Both Jake and pacovf even said that the odds for hitting scum that way is 40%. What's very notable about this is that I would have said that the odds are 50%, given that I'm a VT myself so that leaves me with 1 real VT, 1 real Monkey and 2 scum to look for in the other 4 claimed VTs. This suggests that they aren't VTs (or Monkeys, for that matter), because they aren't thinking from a VT perspective. Instead, I think they are thinking from a perspective where they were trying to figure out what's the odds for "town" to hit scum, i.e. a scum perspective.

Furthermore, the fact that they both posted similar percentages suggests that they actually had a conversation in their QT; otherwise, I'm not sure if Jake would be posting that probability stuff at all. It's worth noting that in Squid Girl Mafia, there was a very similar situation in which scum!LaLight was under attack from me, scum!mcmc jumped to his defense, and scum!Jake sheeped scum!mcmc, even to the point of using similar vocabulary in his post where he defended scum!LaLight — the same pattern is going on here.

[pacovf]

You are misremembering how things went. I said I wanted to lynch from the VTs literally 30 seconds after the first person (you) said that they wanted to lynch Lalight. I don't make posts that fast.

BTW, I always make abstraction of my own alignment when doing simple probabilities. I find them to be more honest that way.

[ashersky]

Vote Count 1.9:

LaLight (2): Awaclus, RR
SA (3): Jake, Pacovf, gkrieg13
WW (1): SA
RR (1): LaLight

Not Voting (1): WW

With 8 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.

Day One ends on March 15 at 12:10 p.m.