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Author Topic: ZM23: Kubo and Blitz Strings Mafia (Day One)  (Read 73263 times)

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Awaclus

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Re: ZM23: Kubo and Blitz Strings Mafia (Day One)
« Reply #425 on: March 14, 2017, 04:39:24 pm »

Ok if we lynch one of the bettles we have a 50% of hitting scum and a 50% chance of hitting town. If we lynch a vt we have a 40% chance of hitting scum and a 60% chance of hitting town making it more likely to hit town than the other option.

How did you come to this conclusion?
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Awaclus

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Re: ZM23: Kubo and Blitz Strings Mafia (Day One)
« Reply #426 on: March 14, 2017, 04:42:08 pm »

@Awaclus, WW: why are you both so certain that LL is scum, rather than RR? I can see good arguments for both.

I was already townreading RR and I think scum!RR would rather just go with the flow and let everyone assume he's an IC until the real Monkey counterclaimed him sooner or later.
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Re: ZM23: Kubo and Blitz Strings Mafia (Day One)
« Reply #427 on: March 14, 2017, 04:43:47 pm »

@Awaclus, WW: why are you both so certain that LL is scum, rather than RR? I can see good arguments for both.

I was already townreading RR and I think scum!RR would rather just go with the flow and let everyone assume he's an IC until the real Monkey counterclaimed him sooner or later.

What if he did this because he knew you'd think so and they need a mislynch?
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Awaclus

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Re: ZM23: Kubo and Blitz Strings Mafia (Day One)
« Reply #428 on: March 14, 2017, 04:45:28 pm »

@Awaclus, WW: why are you both so certain that LL is scum, rather than RR? I can see good arguments for both.

I was already townreading RR and I think scum!RR would rather just go with the flow and let everyone assume he's an IC until the real Monkey counterclaimed him sooner or later.

What if he did this because he knew you'd think so and they need a mislynch?

Then we lose.
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Re: ZM23: Kubo and Blitz Strings Mafia (Day One)
« Reply #429 on: March 14, 2017, 04:46:50 pm »

@Awaclus, WW: why are you both so certain that LL is scum, rather than RR? I can see good arguments for both.

I was already townreading RR and I think scum!RR would rather just go with the flow and let everyone assume he's an IC until the real Monkey counterclaimed him sooner or later.

This is a good argument, actually. Though it can be applied inversely: if scum had already decided that he had to claim Beetle, then maybe he preferred to go with the "flow" of the scum plan, rather than react to the things happening in the game. He did take some time to claim, even while online. But yeah, I like this argument.
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Roadrunner7671

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Re: ZM23: Kubo and Blitz Strings Mafia (Day One)
« Reply #430 on: March 14, 2017, 04:46:56 pm »

No one seems to be accounting for the fact that Monkey doesn't have to choose Kubo to protect, so if we mislynch Beetle it's not an instant loss.
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Roadrunner7671

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Re: ZM23: Kubo and Blitz Strings Mafia (Day One)
« Reply #431 on: March 14, 2017, 04:47:33 pm »

Oops that's not true
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Awaclus

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Re: ZM23: Kubo and Blitz Strings Mafia (Day One)
« Reply #432 on: March 14, 2017, 04:47:57 pm »

No one seems to be accounting for the fact that Monkey doesn't have to choose Kubo to protect, so if we mislynch Beetle it's not an instant loss.

Do you think scum is going to shoot Kubo when Monkey is still alive?

PPE: That.
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Witherweaver

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Re: ZM23: Kubo and Blitz Strings Mafia (Day One)
« Reply #433 on: March 14, 2017, 04:48:09 pm »

...

I guess I should have expected you to not read my post.
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Roadrunner7671

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Re: ZM23: Kubo and Blitz Strings Mafia (Day One)
« Reply #434 on: March 14, 2017, 04:48:54 pm »

You need to believe me to win. I never did and never would go for 1v1, i would claim VT and just try to look townie. What is the reason for me to out the Beetle? I am the Beetle and RR and his partners knew that no one would believe me. And gkrieg already was suspecting me for something.
This is typical cornered scum desperate pleas. It sounds like scum!RR when I mess up a fake claim.
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Witherweaver

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Re: ZM23: Kubo and Blitz Strings Mafia (Day One)
« Reply #435 on: March 14, 2017, 04:50:00 pm »

@Awaclus, WW: why are you both so certain that LL is scum, rather than RR? I can see good arguments for both.

I was already townreading RR and I think scum!RR would rather just go with the flow and let everyone assume he's an IC until the real Monkey counterclaimed him sooner or later.

RR was online for a good 10--15 minutes before claiming.  Scum!RR may not have gone this way, but they could have discussed it in QT and decided that he should.  He, being the last claimer, was the only option after SA claimed.
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Re: ZM23: Kubo and Blitz Strings Mafia (Day One)
« Reply #436 on: March 14, 2017, 04:50:43 pm »

I am... having trouble following your thought process, Jake. Could you try structuring your posts a bit better?
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Roadrunner7671

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Re: ZM23: Kubo and Blitz Strings Mafia (Day One)
« Reply #437 on: March 14, 2017, 04:54:54 pm »

My post claiming Beetle was at 2:10. Class starts at 1:55, you can confirm that with Jake. If you want, you can also confirm with Jake that I wasn't on my phone while I was walking in the halls. So, even if we assume I got on my phone at exactly 1:55 (which isn't true) I had to boot up the forum and read half of page 9, pages 10-13 and part of page 14. Assuming that's about 110 posts and it takes a minute to boot the forum up, this means I looked at 110 posts in 14 minutes. Also, I looked at that PM from Ashersky and replied to it, so let's say 13 minutes.

What's 110 divided by 13?
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Roadrunner7671

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Re: ZM23: Kubo and Blitz Strings Mafia (Day One)
« Reply #438 on: March 14, 2017, 04:56:00 pm »

8.4. Looking at 8.4 posts per minute is one post every 7 seconds. So I wouldn't have had time to talk in the scum QT, nor did I formulate some master plan.
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ashersky

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Re: ZM23: Kubo and Blitz Strings Mafia (Day One)
« Reply #439 on: March 14, 2017, 04:57:10 pm »

Vote Count 1.8:

LaLight (3): gkrieg13, Awaclus, RR
SA (2): Jake, Pacovf
WW (1): SA
RR (1): LaLight

Not Voting (1): WW

With 8 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.

Day One ends on March 15 at 12:10 p.m.
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Re: ZM23: Kubo and Blitz Strings Mafia (Day One)
« Reply #440 on: March 14, 2017, 04:57:38 pm »

Wait, you didn't know you were Beetle before the massclaim?

PPE: well, we have no way to know. You could have just skimmed, or maybe somebody posted the important stuff ("claim Beetle!") in the scum QT.

Also, let's avoid communication about the game outside this thread, please.
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Re: ZM23: Kubo and Blitz Strings Mafia (Day One)
« Reply #441 on: March 14, 2017, 05:00:22 pm »

@Awaclus, gkrieg: if you are wrong about who is fakeclaiming Beetle, we insta-lose. Let's vote from among the VTs first.

Especially considering there is a PR inside, which can claim if pushed, our odds there are much better.
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Witherweaver

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Re: ZM23: Kubo and Blitz Strings Mafia (Day One)
« Reply #442 on: March 14, 2017, 05:02:28 pm »

I'm pretty settled on lynching from the VTs.
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Re: ZM23: Kubo and Blitz Strings Mafia (Day One)
« Reply #443 on: March 14, 2017, 05:03:23 pm »

vote: SA
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Re: ZM23: Kubo and Blitz Strings Mafia (Day One)
« Reply #444 on: March 14, 2017, 05:04:29 pm »

I am not lynching from the VTs.
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Awaclus

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Re: ZM23: Kubo and Blitz Strings Mafia (Day One)
« Reply #445 on: March 14, 2017, 05:05:44 pm »

Wait, you didn't know you were Beetle before the massclaim?

I think he means the PM ashersky sent him to remind him about his ability.
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Awaclus

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Re: ZM23: Kubo and Blitz Strings Mafia (Day One)
« Reply #446 on: March 14, 2017, 05:06:25 pm »

I am not lynching from the VTs.

You might have to.
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Awaclus

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Re: ZM23: Kubo and Blitz Strings Mafia (Day One)
« Reply #447 on: March 14, 2017, 05:06:49 pm »

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Re: ZM23: Kubo and Blitz Strings Mafia (Day One)
« Reply #448 on: March 14, 2017, 05:07:27 pm »

I am not lynching from the VTs.

You might have to.
There is someone who is confirmed scum to me.

According to my wincon, it is not in my best interest to lynch among the VTs.
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Re: ZM23: Kubo and Blitz Strings Mafia (Day One)
« Reply #449 on: March 14, 2017, 05:10:06 pm »

I am not lynching from the VTs.

You might have to.
There is someone who is confirmed scum to me.

According to my wincon, it is not in my best interest to lynch among the VTs.

This sounds like such a scum-trying-to-pretend-like-he's-in-the-mindset-of-really-having-his-fakeclaim thing to say :/
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