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[Limetime]

Lookout is better than both of these

[faust]

The main problem with Loan is you can't always skip Silvers. Other than that, it's pretty good. But the fact that you have limited control over trashing if you want Silvers or kingdom treasures makes it not a top 10 card.

[Awaclus]

If both Forager and Loan are present, the odds are that you should be having at least one copy of both.

That's only because you can eventually Forage the Loan and get more out of it.

No, it's only because Loan can't trash Estates and ideally you want to trash them too.

No it's not. People think it's bad becausd they played with it back when Treasure based decks were more common, but these days I buy Loan pretty much every time and it rarely hits a card I don't want to trash.

[Chris is me]

Loan isn't a bad card, but I prefer both Lookout and Forager to it.

I had Loan at 41, with Catapult and Trade Route below it. Probably could have been higher.

[aku_chi]

Does anybody have data on Loan gain rate for top players?  Loan is very good when:

• You want to trash Coppers.
• You don't need treasures for economy (or your economy comes from a strong Silver gainer like Jack of All Trades).
• There is another way to thin Estates - that isn't better than Loan at thinning Coppers.

What is the likelihood that those three conditions are met in a random kingdom with Loan?  30%?  Loan is good enough in these situations that it certainly avoids a bottom 10 spot.  But better than Forager?  A great trasher that is useful in 70+% games?  No way.

(And yes, sometimes Loan can be worth a purchase when one of the last two conditions isn't met.  But Loan is a sad card in those cases.)

[faust]

Does anybody have data on Loan gain rate for top players?  Loan is very good when:

• You want to trash Coppers.
• You don't need treasures for economy (or your economy comes from a strong Silver gainer like Jack of All Trades).
• There is another way to thin Estates - that isn't better than Loan at thinning Coppers.

What is the likelihood that those three conditions are met in a random kingdom with Loan?  30%?  Loan is good enough in these situations that it certainly avoids a bottom 10 spot.  But better than Forager?  A great trasher that is useful in 70+% games?  No way.

(And yes, sometimes Loan can be worth a purchase when one of the last two conditions isn't met.  But Loan is a sad card in those cases.)

First point is always except in slogs (though sometimes the opportunity cost is not worth it.
Second point is a downside, but Loan still works fairly well with a single Silver.
I don't see why there needs to be a way to trash Estates for Loan to be good.

[Dingan]

I think it was Awaclus that mentioned somewhere that opening Loan can in fact give you a decent chance at spiking $5 on the second reshuffle, or at least a more-decent-than-most-people-think chance, because of how it increases your money-to-Estate ratio.  Not sure his (her?) exact wording, or what the exact probabilities are (obviously, they depend on your other opener), but this mindset has made Loan slightly more attractive to me since.

[GendoIkari]

I think it was Awaclus that mentioned somewhere that opening Loan can in fact give you a decent chance at spiking $5 on the second reshuffle, or at least a more-decent-than-most-people-think chance, because of how it increases your money-to-Estate ratio.  Not sure his (her?) exact wording, or what the exact probabilities are (obviously, they depend on your other opener), but this mindset has made Loan slightly more attractive to me since.

Huh? What is that in comparison to? Compared to opening nothing, opening Loan would give you a somewhat better chance at hitting $5 on your second shuffle, sure. But only by the exact same amount that opening Copper would. Less than opening Silver or any Terminal Silver or drawer.

[Dingan]

I think it was Awaclus that mentioned somewhere that opening Loan can in fact give you a decent chance at spiking $5 on the second reshuffle, or at least a more-decent-than-most-people-think chance, because of how it increases your money-to-Estate ratio.  Not sure his (her?) exact wording, or what the exact probabilities are (obviously, they depend on your other opener), but this mindset has made Loan slightly more attractive to me since.

Huh? What is that in comparison to? Compared to opening nothing, opening Loan would give you a somewhat better chance at hitting $5 on your second shuffle, sure. But only by the exact same amount that opening Copper would. Less than opening Silver or any Terminal Silver or drawer.

You answered your own question.  Opening, say, Loan/Oasis obviously is not as good for hitting $5 as opening Silver/Oasis is.  But Loan does give you a FAR greater chance at hitting $5 than other weak thinners like Lookout, Trade Route, Island, etc. give you because it both (1) gives you a non-zero economy right now, and (2) only requires 1 card from your hand opposed to 2 (ok, so does Lookout).

EDIT: Also, Loan > Forager for hitting $5 early.

[werothegreat]

If Loan and Counterfeit were on the same board, I'd open Silver/Silver and rush Counterfeit

[aku_chi]

I don't see why there needs to be a way to trash Estates for Loan to be good.

There doesn't have to be a way to trash Estates for Loan to be good.  But Loan is at its best when it works alongside another trasher that can trash starting Estates, Loan itself, and perhaps some Coppers.  I consider Loan a sad card when it's the only trasher, but I probably need to overcome my bias against trashing Coppers but not Estates.

[Awaclus]

If Loan and Counterfeit were on the same board, I'd open Silver/Silver and rush Counterfeit

I'd open Loan/Silver because that gives you decent chances of hitting €5, super better tempo, and Loan even has some synergy with Counterfeit.

Loan definitely shines when used in combination with another trasher, especially Masquerade. That way you can start getting super thin super fast without giving up many early game buys thanks to Loan's excellence in the early game, and the other trasher can finish the job when Loan is starting to struggle. As a lone trasher (pun intended), it's not so good because you'll probably open Loan/Loan and if you cant't skip Silver, that can get somewhat awkward pretty fast. It's still better than most give it credit for in that situation.

[Chris is me]

Does anybody have data on Loan gain rate for top players?  Loan is very good when:

• You want to trash Coppers.
• You don't need treasures for economy (or your economy comes from a strong Silver gainer like Jack of All Trades).
• There is another way to thin Estates - that isn't better than Loan at thinning Coppers.

What is the likelihood that those three conditions are met in a random kingdom with Loan?  30%?  Loan is good enough in these situations that it certainly avoids a bottom 10 spot.  But better than Forager?  A great trasher that is useful in 70+% games?  No way.

(And yes, sometimes Loan can be worth a purchase when one of the last two conditions isn't met.  But Loan is a sad card in those cases.)

Just want to note that Loan is really terrible with Silver gainers; you might only trash 3-4 Copper with it before it becomes more of a nuisance than a help.

[Limetime]

weak thinners like Lookout

Lookout is strong but isnt very good at hitting 5.

[aku_chi]

Just want to note that Loan is really terrible with Silver gainers; you might only trash 3-4 Copper with it before it becomes more of a nuisance than a help.

I'm well aware that Loan becomes awkward the moment you add a Silver to your deck.  But, Loan works a little better with Silver gainers than Silver that you have to buy, because (a) the opportunity cost of the Silver is lower and (b) you might want to trash some of those Silvers at some point.  For that reason, Loan + Jack is pretty good, and Loan + Amulet could be decent.  Mostly because Jack/Amulet trash Estates, but Loan is better/able to trash Copper.  Trashing 3-4 Copper is just fine in a lot of decks.  At the point when you have multiple Silver, you certainly won't mind discarding them from your next hand, and you might want to trash them.

[Limetime]

I think amulet is better at trashing coppers than loan but worse on economy.

[trivialknot]

I think Loan suffers a lot from being too much of a "middle ground" opening.  It's a decent trasher, and that extra $1 boosts your economy in the second shuffle.  Unfortunately, it just isn't quite enough to significantly boost your chances of hitting $5.

For comparison, consider how often a silver lets you hit $6 on the second shuffle.  Sometimes it happens, but don't count on it.

[markusin]

I expected to see Catapult right now and was set to argue that maybe it should be a bit higher.  But since we haven't seen it yet, clearly it's being overrated.

Catapult, it's really bad.  If you trash a copper, it's like a Militia that doesn't give you money.  If you trash an estate, it's like a Trade Route without buy.  Later you can trash good cards to curse your opponent, but that hurts your own deck almost as much as your opponent's.  I mean, if you can spend an action to trash a $3, then your opponent can spend an action to trash their curse, and it comes out about the same for both of you, only you lost a $3.

In the previews, people were saying Catapult looks great, Rocks looks awful.  It's quite the opposite.  Rocks is the main saving grace of Catapult.  In our group, as we've explored the strategy-space of Catapult, it seems the best thing you can do is buy ALL the Catapults, and then trash Catapults and Rocks to curse your opponents.  The opposing player has to decide between buying a catapult (which accelerates towards Rocks, and is a terrible card) and not buying a catapult (possibly losing access to the only junker and trasher).

Hrm, I have Rocks above Catapult in my rankings, but not by much. I can't see Catapult being worth it most of the time without Rocks coming into the picture. I suppose the Silver gained from Rocks is not so bad when Catapult is slowing down the game.

Maybe Catapult has some cute tricks with on-trash cards like Feodum and Rats? Those cards are not treasures themselves, however (Feodum gives you Silver on trash though).

[Jack Rudd]

The great thing about Loan is how well it combos with Farming Village.

[Awaclus]

The great thing about Loan is how well it combos with Farming Village.

Well, it's certainly true that a €4 vanilla Village benefits from an elite trasher like Loan. However, it's not a combo.

[Qvist]

Part 3 aka the "Rant Episode"

[Beyond Awesome]

Plan should be higher. Still underestimated despite the big jump.

[werothegreat]

Plan should be higher. Still underestimated despite the big jump.

Qvist apparently disagrees with you.

I think Enchantress should be higher.  It curbstomps any sort of BM strategy that plays one terminal Action per turn.

[Limetime]

Plan should be higher. Still underestimated despite the big jump.

Qvist apparently disagrees with you.

I think Enchantress should be higher.  It curbstomps any sort of BM strategy that plays one terminal Action per turn.

Whats a BM strategy?

[LaLight]

Plan should be higher. Still underestimated despite the big jump.

Qvist apparently disagrees with you.

I think Enchantress should be higher.  It curbstomps any sort of BM strategy that plays one terminal Action per turn.

Whats a BM strategy?

It's when you buy as many things as possible from BM.