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Author Topic: M90: Literature Mafia (Scum wins!)  (Read 154904 times)

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pacovf

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Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #925 on: December 27, 2016, 05:34:38 am »

Ok, so how would you go about figuring out the alignment of the good players, then.
Hoping that something out of the ordinary happens :D
But the default stuff is just not indicative and we should all be aware of that.

That's all fine and good, but you realize that you just gave yourself an excuse to not have any reads on the good players, right? That's concerning.

why is Robz your biggest townread, Lalight?

There is a reason.. it's not something i got to know at night, it's something i read from him. Not too strong of a proof, but quite.

Can you give me a more specific answer, or is it only gut?

Quote
I have to say, J Reggie seems waaaay too scummy to be scum. Am I the only one bothered by that?

well, J Reggie was obv!scum in M86 where we were partners, but was never lynched and we won. Actually this is one of the reasons why i'm voting for him.

Fair enough. But look at it from my perspective. You come back to the game, and you see that no one, as far as I can tell (aside from maybe a quick side comment by WW) is opposing a J Reggie lynch. What am I supposed to conclude from that?

In M86, was he obv!scum to you only, to everyone? Did people actually want to lynch him saying he was obv!scum? This is actually an important question. I will try to read M86 if I have the time (but then again, Christmas break and family).

Well, impressions change, sometimes very rapidly. Although it doesn't actually look like anyone changed their mind all that much there. So not sure why this is worth pointing out.

You did! You both were all but certain that the other was town. Then Calamitas, Eevee and me expressed concern over how much you were buddying each other, and bam! You start suspecting each other.

Robz making comments about scum playing badly is very scummy. It shows a level of certainty that is just incongruent with the fact that it's D2 and we have not lynched a single scum.

When did I do this and why is it scummy?

You've done it a few times, but I have to run out to do some errands now, I will fish them out for you when I come back. It's scummy because, at this stage of the game, town should not be certain of anything. So you being so certain that scum has been playing badly is just... I don't see how you could know that, as town. As scum, it's easy to pretend that you know, though, and makes people more willing to follow you.

Oh, and I am voting Robz 50% because gut, 50% to see reactions. mcmc was the first to question the vote, and Robz waited until somebody else did to comment on it. So, there's that.

Valid to see reactions. I didn't comment on it because you didn't supply a reason, and then I commented that you hadn't supplied a reason.

That would be fair, only you waited until literally two posts after somebody else brought it up (mcmc) to feel like you could comment on it. I am not surprised that mcmc brought it up first, because well he's been buddying you so much.

On the other hand, everybody knows that worrying about people voting for you is scummy, so you waiting until somebody brought it up to feel like you could talk about it shows that you are concerned about what people could think of you, more than you are concerned about what could possibly be going through my mind, which would lead to interactions, etc.

In fact, you've been shadowing mcmc ever since he got back into the game, with barely any deviation from his opinion.

Not sure what to make of pacovf. I disagree with a lot of the opinions he's giving here.

Disagreements are good! It leads to meaningful interactions, potential tells, reads, and can they be interpreted as people flip.
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Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #926 on: December 27, 2016, 05:54:09 am »

I will answer to my two questions:

I saw specific Robz' message that makes me think he's town.

J Reggie was obv!scum for everyone and no one opposed his lynch. But there were always better candidates (i suppose this is what's happening now)
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Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #927 on: December 27, 2016, 05:54:33 am »

Edit: specific Robz' post.
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Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #928 on: December 27, 2016, 07:21:37 am »

I understand that you don't want to say which Robz's post makes you think he's town. Ok.

I will keep in mind what you say about J Reggie, we'll see how much time I end up having.
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Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #929 on: December 27, 2016, 07:44:30 am »

Townread on pacovf is getting stronger, this really looks like legitimate scumhunting. I had a creeping suspicion there wasn't much original content from him, but mostly saying safe things others had said before, but this is clearly original, thought yourself content.

I agree there is something off about how mcmc and robz are approaching each other, but it's hard to say if that's just two people knowing each other really really well. If I got to play with my brother, I believe we'd approach each other very differently than others, for sure. It can be pretty blinding when you really want to trust someone, but also super dangerous for town if either is scum and fooling the other this bad. I do think mcmc is more likely to be scum of the two because robz has a townier voting/read - history, but i don't think either is the best lynch for today at least.
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Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #930 on: December 27, 2016, 07:53:48 am »

Terrible form, stream of consciousness from phone. Apologies!
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Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #931 on: December 27, 2016, 08:11:27 am »

It is. It's SO scummy that it's almost just a straightforwardly bad play. Is the scum team THAT worried about what silverspawn might say that it was worth hammering him in such incriminating fashion? If J Reggie is scum he's just playing an absolutely abysmal scum game (no offense intended!). So the question becomes, is that possible? Or is he just sort of scummy-seeming town?

So for now, let's go with a scum team of lalight, calamitas, and Eevee. vote: Eevee.

Woah, I think J Reggie just committed a big scum tell: voting right after people (in this case me and mcmc) start talking seriously about you being scum. Scum get paranoid that they are being talked about and their first impulse is to try to misdirect, and casting a vote is the flashiest way to do that (it literally appears in bold).

Gosh, on top of everything else, I'm not sure I can ignore all the signs. Obvscum is obvscum, yes?  Vote: J Reggie

I really don't like the robz-mcm buddying. Those two are two of the best players out here and they still consider each other (close) to conf!town just because of behavior.

This is also a "quick, get distracted!" post. Like, okay, I understand what you're saying obviously, this buddying is bad if one or both of us is scum, but you're not saying that. You're not saying, this is bad because they are a scum team, or this is bad because you think I'm getting fooled by my brother, or it's bad because it's the other way around. You're just saying, this is not good, but not providing the reason. Liek the J Reggie thing I pointed out, this is something that comes from scum. You forgot to supply the reason we should actually be freaked about here, because you know we're both actually town.

I think scum may be screwing up this game. Calamitas is the off wagon scum, J Reggie and X the on-wagon scum? (Where X is Eevee, maybe?) Could it be that easy?

Mcmc, well who is our most sure thing, then? Calamitas?

Emphasis mine. That's a lot of posts saying that scum is playing badly, which means that they are being "obvious" and we have "sure things". That did not sit well with me as I was reading it.
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Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #932 on: December 27, 2016, 08:13:17 am »

Townread on pacovf is getting stronger, this really looks like legitimate scumhunting. I had a creeping suspicion there wasn't much original content from him, but mostly saying safe things others had said before, but this is clearly original, thought yourself content.

I agree there is something off about how mcmc and robz are approaching each other, but it's hard to say if that's just two people knowing each other really really well. If I got to play with my brother, I believe we'd approach each other very differently than others, for sure. It can be pretty blinding when you really want to trust someone, but also super dangerous for town if either is scum and fooling the other this bad. I do think mcmc is more likely to be scum of the two because robz has a townier voting/read - history, but i don't think either is the best lynch for today at least.

So, you think J Reggie is a better lynch? Because to me it's starting to look like a default lynch. Most people that were willing to lynch you are slowly shifting to lynching J Reggie, with no opposition. I understand why you, specifically, would much rather lynch J Reggie, but if another lynch option appeared, would you still prefer a J Reggie lynch today?
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Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #933 on: December 27, 2016, 09:17:28 am »

LaLight is the other I would be interested in, really want to reread him when i get back home tomorrow. WW could be interesting as a mystery box, I feel no one is quoting any of his posts to comment even.

SA looks towny just based on scumhunting and content, as do you. The brothers still look towny-ish, although that has really been vaning as day2 has progressed. I don't agree with the cases/suspicions voiced on Calamitas, I sort of think like him (although less smart and scientific), I feel i see where he is coming from. I mean, he could be scum, and poe suggests he very well could be, but to me the biggest knock against him is that he hasn't done anything particularly towny.

the thing with j reggie, though, that i think scum would be pretty willing to bus him at this point, seeing it a lost cause and needless to go down with the sinking ship. i wouldn't be surprised to see the strongest proponents of lynching reggie to be scum if he flips scum. his actions just aren't adding up to town, and in a game this big it could really work out to have one scum go for the kamikaze strategy. mostly that i don't think scum would dare to oppose the j reggie lynch, but prefer the aggressive bus. actually almost feel that if reggie is scum, the towniest people would be those who haven't commented on him much, as his partners would either want to bus aggressively for town cred or try to subtly steer us towards alternative targets - the case is so strong they must feel there is a good chance he is going down no matter what they do, too risky to not take a position and look bad when we reread tomorrow.
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Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #934 on: December 27, 2016, 09:22:50 am »

LaLight is the other I would be interested in, really want to reread him when i get back home tomorrow.

I sincerely admit lurking. You will reread me and vote for me. That's both irl stuff and "many games i'm in" stuff. I'm so sorry! I do not want you to waste time onme instead of catching real scum. I'm town, truly am.

Well, due to reads i feel Eevee/Pacovf/J Reggie team. We need to lynch Reggie already!
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Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #935 on: December 27, 2016, 09:26:59 am »

I wasn't actually even thinking about volume, it's those kind of posts where you first appeal to emotion to me, and then in the chapter read me as scum that make your reads seem insincere.
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Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #936 on: December 27, 2016, 09:28:04 am »

But i am okay with examining that tomorrow, we are in agreement that j reggie is no good for us!

(not that i don't like you reggie, just think you are scum)
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Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #937 on: December 27, 2016, 09:34:37 am »

I wasn't actually even thinking about volume, it's those kind of posts where you first appeal to emotion to me, and then in the chapter read me as scum that make your reads seem insincere.

I wasn't directing to you only, it's for everyone :)
Hey, nothing personal, you just send me some scum vibes :)
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Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #938 on: December 27, 2016, 09:36:24 am »

I am actually coming around on Lalight, I think he is town now. It's unfortunate that he thinks I am scum, but oh well.
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Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #939 on: December 27, 2016, 10:06:15 am »

I am actually coming around on Lalight, I think he is town now. It's unfortunate that he thinks I am scum, but oh well.
Why is that?


@LL
Heh, no problem. Same of course. :) Hope you are feeling better!
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Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #940 on: December 27, 2016, 11:50:19 am »

Ok, so how would you go about figuring out the alignment of the good players, then.
Hoping that something out of the ordinary happens :D
But the default stuff is just not indicative and we should all be aware of that.

That's all fine and good, but you realize that you just gave yourself an excuse to not have any reads on the good players, right? That's concerning.
Well, it is not an excuse but rather a fact. The default stuff is just not indicative if one knows what is considered towny/scummy by heart and clearly good enough to mimick their town play.
And if alignment-unindicative stuff is taken into account when building reads the reads aren't worth anything. Sure, they might sound neat but they aren't entangled to the probability of one being actual scum and actual scum [/i] and become just arbitrary. This is exactly what silver was saying in #616.

And paco, why do you think LaLight is town now? What do you think about his weird stance on teamlyle?
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Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #941 on: December 27, 2016, 11:51:34 am »

Ok, so how would you go about figuring out the alignment of the good players, then.
Hoping that something out of the ordinary happens :D
But the default stuff is just not indicative and we should all be aware of that.

That's all fine and good, but you realize that you just gave yourself an excuse to not have any reads on the good players, right? That's concerning.
Well, it is not an excuse but rather a fact. The default stuff is just not indicative if one knows what is considered towny/scummy by heart and clearly good enough to mimick their town play.
And if alignment-unindicative stuff is taken into account when building reads the reads aren't worth anything. Sure, they might sound neat but they aren't entangled to the probability of one being actual scum and actual town and become just arbitrary. This is exactly what silver was saying in #616.

And paco, why do you think LaLight is town now? What do you think about his weird stance on teamlyle?
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Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #942 on: December 27, 2016, 12:24:40 pm »

Emphasis mine. That's a lot of posts saying that scum is playing badly, which means that they are being "obvious" and we have "sure things". That did not sit well with me as I was reading it.

Fair enough.

Look, as town I'm prone to changing my mind really rapidly in mafia games. It's actually what gets me in trouble, I think, one of the reasons people always think I'm scum when I'm town. Early reads are usually garbage, eventually things just click and you figure it out. When I'm expressing "certainty" I'm not actually certain of anything, but town has to feign certainty in order to achieve lynches at all, otherwise it's too easy for scum to undermine the lynches that scum doesn't want to happen. I know that sounds weird, but it's how it is, and it's how I play. I'll be pretty convinced mcmc is town up until the moment I change my mind (maybe--that's just an example). It's how it works for me. Neat, logical evolutions of reads are scummy, in my opinion. Scum has the luxury of concocting airtight narratives that explain how and why their reads have changed. Town doesn't have that luxury.
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Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #943 on: December 27, 2016, 03:18:03 pm »

I'm not a PR. I'm a bad town player. There's no way I'm not getting lynched later in this game even if I stay alive today. Scum should hammer me now and town will have to work through lylo but it's better than this.

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Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #944 on: December 27, 2016, 04:06:32 pm »

Paco has made lots of good posts/points relating to me hopefully I have time later to post via computer so I can format in quotes ect. But for now here are my thoughts.

So you asked how why me and robz went from completely thinking we were town d1(we had many of the same reads) to me casting suspicion on robz and him returning the thought toward me. You actually point out the very reason for my slightly changing read, it felt as though at open of day two robz begin differing to me for a group opinion instead of providing me with different insights toward the same point.

Also I have to point out for worry that overexplaining myself is confusing other townines, I do still think robz is town, just less so than I did in day one, similar to how my read on eevee has been slightly changed based on time and general posts.
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Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #945 on: December 27, 2016, 06:10:40 pm »

PPE: ugh, you don't need to specifically address someone to buddy them, you just need to agree with everything they say. I can look up the exchange again if you really want me to, it's definitely not something I just made up.

Yes, please!. There were only five posts that mcmc had made in the game by the time you commented (I linked them all up there in my post), and one of those was directed solely at me, so there shouldn't be much to go through! I remember thinking at the time you mentioned the "super-buddying" that I hadn't been aware of it at all, and it feels like the kind of thing I ought to learn to be more sensitive to.
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Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #946 on: December 27, 2016, 06:14:41 pm »

By the way, SA, why do you think Eevee came out of the voting mess looking townier?

He only just escaped being lynched. I would have expected scum to feel harder to lynch, but Eevee came very close to getting there by accident, and seemed to react in a fairly towny manner, though I take the point somebody (you? I can't remember) made about how he seemed to be logging in to come and claim in twilight rather that having done so immediately, and that seeming odd.

Sorry not to have a more step-by-step reasoning there... I'm really tired after a day of travel with my parents, and now I have them staying with me (rather than me staying with them) for a couple more days...
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Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #947 on: December 27, 2016, 06:26:35 pm »

So what do people who are town think: how many scum are on my wagon right now, and if they're not all on my wagon would one of them hammer?  Or does scum want to defend me for town cred?

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Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #948 on: December 27, 2016, 06:28:23 pm »

Vote: Calamitas
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Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #949 on: December 27, 2016, 06:52:02 pm »

Vote: Calamitas

I gather this means you don't like the J Reggie lynch anymore? Because of his claim and stuff? I guess, vote me and then go back to voting Calamitas if this is correct.
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I have been forced to accept that lackluster play is a town tell for you.
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