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Author Topic: M90: Literature Mafia (Scum wins!)  (Read 154938 times)

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pacovf

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Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #725 on: December 20, 2016, 12:22:30 pm »

Generally agree with the point Eevee made about silver's lynch being too uh "consensual" to get much info out of it. There was no real alternative, aside from the theory-talk motivated teamlyle lynch. It's unfortunate, but we can't go back anymore, we just have less info than we normally would going into D2. On the other hand, we have teamlyle's flip too, I guess.
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Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #726 on: December 20, 2016, 12:24:32 pm »

I'll talk about reads a little after when i will get a computer, but for now Robz is the strongest of townreads of mine.
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Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #727 on: December 20, 2016, 12:25:05 pm »

Maybe even the only one actually. Reasons.
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Calamitas

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Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #728 on: December 20, 2016, 12:27:24 pm »

Also, this is really neither here nor there at this point, but I feel like raising it anyway: Calamitas, we DIDN'T do what you wanted, and it worked out just as well. Maybe this might persuade you to spend a little less time convincing everyone you are right about setup/math/theories and more time scum!hunting? Because it really did start to derail the end of Day 1 there.
Why should that persuade me? The prior probability of having a vig wasn't that high so we couldn't count on it. And without the vig this would have been way worse than a teamlyle lynch.

But anyways, let's not speak about this further; teamlyle is dead and the issue is settled.
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Robz888

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Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Night 1)
« Reply #729 on: December 20, 2016, 12:30:05 pm »

I continue to kind of town!read mcmc, but that was based on very early Day 1 stuff and he hasn't said much since, which is a smart thing for him to do if he's actually town. (I do know he's sort of VLA right now, though.)

...wouldn't that be the smart thing to do as scum, too?

Thanks for the catch the bolded bit was a TYPO, I meant to say that it would be the smart thing for him to do as scum. So yes, I agree with your point.
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Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Night 1)
« Reply #730 on: December 20, 2016, 12:31:55 pm »

I continue to kind of town!read mcmc, but that was based on very early Day 1 stuff and he hasn't said much since, which is a smart thing for him to do if he's actually town. (I do know he's sort of VLA right now, though.)

...wouldn't that be the smart thing to do as scum, too?

Thanks for the catch the bolded bit was a TYPO, I meant to say that it would be the smart thing for him to do as scum. So yes, I agree with your point.

Scumslip!
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Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #731 on: December 20, 2016, 03:12:52 pm »

@SA

I missed the post where you gave your reasons later, my bad.

I think there is a difference between trying to start an alternative wagon like Robz did, and lamenting about the current lynch but staying on the wagon like you did. To me, Robz's thing seems like something where his actions would not make sense for someone who is scum and about to see a favorable lynch for them, whereas what you did felt like something that scum could easily say, because they of course know all the alignments and know it's a bad lynch for town. Of course it also makes sense that you would behave the same way when town and having second feelings.
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Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #732 on: December 20, 2016, 03:16:42 pm »

I understand what you are saying about the buddying. I think it affects my tone towards Robz now that he is emerging as my strongest town read and I want him to trust me.
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Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #733 on: December 20, 2016, 03:23:07 pm »

I understand what you are saying about the buddying. I think it affects my tone towards Robz now that he is emerging as my strongest town read and I want him to trust me.

It's just that by Day 2, a lot of the time I find that people are just wildly suspicious of me no matter what I do. So you're treating me like town, either because you have a sincere and really solid (and actually correct as it turns out) read on me, or because you're scum and getting on my good side is (in your view) the right strategy.

And I have to try and figure out which of these things is more likely for you. Definitely could be the first thing, but do you see why I would worry it's the second?
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Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #734 on: December 20, 2016, 05:47:21 pm »

Yes, a claimed vig would (unless counterclaimed) be an IC. In regard to the multiple vig scenario, a setup with exactly 1 vig and at least 1 spirit is 79 times as likely as a scenario with at least 2 vigs and at least 1 spirit.
(Unless I have a fatal mistake in my code, will look into that tomorrow). So we shouldn't be too worried about having a multiple vig situation. (Not proposing anyone to claim though)

I make the factor to be about 77.6, so broad agreement there.
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Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #735 on: December 20, 2016, 05:59:36 pm »

This is me rolling my eyes.
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Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #736 on: December 20, 2016, 06:02:24 pm »

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Calamitas

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Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #737 on: December 20, 2016, 07:36:57 pm »

Yes, a claimed vig would (unless counterclaimed) be an IC. In regard to the multiple vig scenario, a setup with exactly 1 vig and at least 1 spirit is 79 times as likely as a scenario with at least 2 vigs and at least 1 spirit.
(Unless I have a fatal mistake in my code, will look into that tomorrow). So we shouldn't be too worried about having a multiple vig situation. (Not proposing anyone to claim though)

I make the factor to be about 77.6, so broad agreement there.
Good to hear someone else was also implementing it :D
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Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #738 on: December 20, 2016, 08:05:38 pm »

Yes, a claimed vig would (unless counterclaimed) be an IC. In regard to the multiple vig scenario, a setup with exactly 1 vig and at least 1 spirit is 79 times as likely as a scenario with at least 2 vigs and at least 1 spirit.
(Unless I have a fatal mistake in my code, will look into that tomorrow). So we shouldn't be too worried about having a multiple vig situation. (Not proposing anyone to claim though)

I make the factor to be about 77.6, so broad agreement there.
Good to hear someone else was also implementing it :D

I'd implemented asher9++ before, so it wasn't much of a tweak. It took me till tonight to get round to sorting out the last little corner I'd asked about before the game started, though, since I've been really busy lately.

Anyway, now you've got company in the land of obsessively theoretical people, how about you come and join reads-land too?
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Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #739 on: December 20, 2016, 08:07:04 pm »

I've been re-reading late D1, and the exchange between Eevee and silver, which I'd not really paid attention to before. But given silver's flip and my intervening scum-points for Eevee, I think it's worth a vote: Eevee.
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Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #740 on: December 20, 2016, 08:15:34 pm »

Space Count

LL (1): JR
Calamitas (2): teamlyle, WW
Eevee (2): Robz, Space
Not voting (5): LL, Calamitas, Eevee, mcmc, paco

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pacovf

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Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #741 on: December 20, 2016, 08:48:07 pm »

PPE 3

Ugh, I started rereading, and I realized that there is basically no information to be gotten from teamlyle's wagon. For all I know, scum could be averse to lynching a Restless Spirit. I was willing to give Robz and WW town points for overall opposing the lynch before the whole theory talk started, but then again, maybe they are scum that were trying to get someone else than a Restless Spirit lynched... Man, teamlyle, why did you have to claim so early...

mcmc comes out as being all over the place, that might be towny? I think?

I just can't see Calamitas not being town right now. Especially his initial reaction to teamlyle's claim.

Mild townread on Robz for trying to start wagons on people other than teamlyle or silver (WW, J Reggie). Feels like too much work for scum when things are alreading going your way.

Lalight... is also all over the place, in such an over the top way... that feels somewhat towny too? Gah. On the other hand, it felt like he sort of was on top of the game? Has he ever rolled scum before?

Both SA and Lalight are following the game very closely, but I do not know what to think of it. Lalight has been "panicky", SA hasn't done much besides contribute to the theory talk, and do a half-hearted attempt at changing silver's lynch at the end. He said he wanted to lynch Calamitas, though, so hm.

Eevee has been present, but not leading the game as much as I remember him in the past.

J Reggie, I have no recollection of. But would he have hammered silver so recklessly as scum? When Robz had already offered to do it?

witherweaver feels like town!witherweaver.

IIRC, Eevee was the first one to build a case on silverspawn. He did it after teamlyle's claim. But he became fairly silent as the end of day approached.

I think that's everyone, which means:

all-over-the-place: Lalight, mcmc
not very present: JReggie, WW
Calamitas: Calamitas
playing it safe: SA (very), Eevee (somewhat)
can't read: Robz

on-wagon:  Eevee, (pacovf), SpaceAnemone, LaLight, pacovf, J Reggie [Robz]

ever-voted for gkrieg: ww, JReggie (both semi-RVS)
ever-voted for teamlyle: pacovf, Robz, /claim/ Lalight, Calamitas, mcmc

Soooooo... eh, I guess I don't want to lynch Calamitas or WW, would appreciate if somebody told me how to read Lalight or mcmc. I doubt mcmc/Robz, JReggie/Robz or SA/Calamitas are scum at the same time. Lalight is clearly the one that looks worst from wagon analysis, but again, no idea what to deduce from the playstyle. I have a feeling he wouldn't be so panicky as scum when both of the leading lynches are town? Unless the argument was that he was trying to fake town!concern?
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Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #742 on: December 20, 2016, 08:48:47 pm »

SA, you were clearly following along closely, yet you only started showing real concern over the available lynches at the very, very end. Why?
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Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #743 on: December 20, 2016, 08:49:56 pm »

Also,

I've been re-reading late D1, and the exchange between Eevee and silver, which I'd not really paid attention to before. But given silver's flip and my intervening scum-points for Eevee, I think it's worth a vote: Eevee.

can you point out what, exactly, you are referring to, here?
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Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #744 on: December 20, 2016, 09:02:56 pm »

Both SA and Lalight are following the game very closely, but I do not know what to think of it. Lalight has been "panicky", SA hasn't done much besides contribute to the theory talk, and do a half-hearted attempt at changing silver's lynch at the end. They said he wanted to lynch Calamitas, though, so hm.

Sorry, fixed.
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Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #745 on: December 20, 2016, 09:04:07 pm »

Vig should not have done that. Also, vote: lalight.

Why do you think this?

Also, can we get a readlist from you?
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Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #746 on: December 21, 2016, 08:30:54 am »

I've been re-reading late D1, and the exchange between Eevee and silver, which I'd not really paid attention to before. But given silver's flip and my intervening scum-points for Eevee, I think it's worth a vote: Eevee.

can you point out what, exactly, you are referring to, here?

Re-reading silver had surprised me with how much he's pointing at Eevee, because I hadn't noticed it in amongst all the Calamitas stuff the first time through. Post #508 says that while Eevee isn't a scumread, he'd be an okay lynch. Then at #518 he's got a more emphatic-sounding vote, though again, it's kind of mixed up in all the Calamitas guff. Then at #535 Eevee posts a huge read on silver with a shouty vote at the end. I mean, it's likely he'd be noticing silver's comments more than the rest of us since it's about himself, but still, that's a big case with not a lot holding it up, and then a few posts later gkrieg and LL are also on the wagon.

Oh, and you said I was following the game closely, but the whole time around #567 I was running around like a headless chicken with guests and cakes to bake and my friend's kid to watch and a weekend full of festive choral commitments, so my attention to the game at that crucial point was way lower than I'd liked :-( If I'd been keeping up properly, there's no way I'd have missed the vote-counting error!

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Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #747 on: December 21, 2016, 08:32:12 am »

Both SA and Lalight are following the game very closely, but I do not know what to think of it. Lalight has been "panicky", SA hasn't done much besides contribute to the theory talk, and do a half-hearted attempt at changing silver's lynch at the end. They said they wanted to lynch Calamitas, though, so hm.

Sorry, fixed.

Even more fixed :-)
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Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #748 on: December 21, 2016, 09:28:48 am »

Vig should not have done that. Also, vote: lalight.

Why do you think this?

Also, can we get a readlist from you?

I've explained my original reason for voting for lalight. And it's bad for a vig to kill someone who everyone thinks is town instead of searching for scum.

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Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #749 on: December 21, 2016, 09:29:21 am »

I hope I can do a reads list today.
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