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Author Topic: M90: Literature Mafia (Scum wins!)  (Read 154784 times)

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SpaceAnemone

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Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #625 on: December 17, 2016, 06:33:05 pm »

But anyways, do you really think I'm more likely to act like that as scum than town?

I think the marginal gain is higher as scum, because all you have to do is push logical set-up info and behave in a way that isn't going to give anyone any alignment info. And I think the reasons your model is flawed are subtle enough that's it's trivial to act like you clearly believe it, because it's a reasonable first-order approximation. But I think your model is not complex enough to fit observed Mafia game behaviour, so I don't trust it as the sole basis on which to pin almost all of the lynch discussion for D1.

If you show me a generative model of player behaviour that fits observed Mafia games, with latent variables allowing complexity of the sort that captures individual play styles, and can prove that under that sort of a model, your lynch play still has the edge, then I'm much more likely to believe you. As is, I think you're missing too many subtleties, and not even considering a distribution over likely end-states in your computations, so I can easily believe that you're smarter than this and just pushing your simple model in a scummy way.
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Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #626 on: December 17, 2016, 06:36:04 pm »

If ss doesn't pay before I go to bed I'm voting.

Calamitas

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Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #627 on: December 17, 2016, 06:39:58 pm »

But anyways, do you really think I'm more likely to act like that as scum than town?

I think the marginal gain is higher as scum, because all you have to do is push logical set-up info and behave in a way that isn't going to give anyone any alignment info. And I think the reasons your model is flawed are subtle enough that's it's trivial to act like you clearly believe it, because it's a reasonable first-order approximation. But I think your model is not complex enough to fit observed Mafia game behaviour, so I don't trust it as the sole basis on which to pin almost all of the lynch discussion for D1.

If you show me a generative model of player behaviour that fits observed Mafia games, with latent variables allowing complexity of the sort that captures individual play styles, and can prove that under that sort of a model, your lynch play still has the edge, then I'm much more likely to believe you. As is, I think you're missing too many subtleties, and not even considering a distribution over likely end-states in your computations, so I can easily believe that you're smarter than this and just pushing your simple model in a scummy way.
It's not like I'm usually giving much alignment info anyways D1...

But in regard to the model, you are plain wrong here. The qualitative advantage of lynching teamlyle should be god damn obvious, it shouldn't require me writing AGI for you to believe that.
The main points are:
- The only info we don't get if we lynch teamlyle today is the silver flip
- Instead, we win the teamlyle flip and don't risk the downside of lynching town!silver (which is STILL THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO)
- By lynching teamlyle WE GAIN ANOTHER DAY

But I will give up, thought you would be more sensible SA.
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Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #628 on: December 17, 2016, 06:48:59 pm »

If you don't want me to play mafia, just say it. I'm sorry for being correct on game theory.

But I will give up, thought you would be more sensible SA.

Guilt trips. You're both scum.
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Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #629 on: December 17, 2016, 06:49:49 pm »

If you don't want me to play mafia, just say it. I'm sorry for being correct on game theory.

But I will give up, thought you would be more sensible SA.

Guilt trips. You're both scum.
Sure thing
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Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #630 on: December 17, 2016, 06:57:43 pm »

But in regard to the model, you are plain wrong here. The qualitative advantage of lynching teamlyle should be god damn obvious
I see there is a slight advantage if all other things are exactly as you assert. I just don't believe that's how it's most likely to play out.

it shouldn't require me writing AGI for you to believe that.
As an aside that's probably irrelevant to everyone else in the game, try looking up graphical models on wikipedia. When they don't have loops in the inference, they're trainable with a message-passing algorithm that's pretty much just an extension of the viterbi algorithm for hidden markov models. And they're powerful enough to model simple latent states without needing stupid amounts of training data. I think it would actually be quite fun to model Mafia games that way, but I simply don't have the time to parse all the past games in a way that produces good training data.

- The only info we don't get if we lynch teamlyle today is the silver flip
This may be true now, since it's almost too late for actual scum-hunting. But if you'd let this lie, or flooded the thread a but less, then actual scum-hunting could have taken place. While you've admitted that you're not good with D1 (nether am I!), there are others here who would have had to generate more content so as not to be seen as lurking, and that content would probably have been a much richer source of interactions if it wasn't just you and silver arguing against everyone on a technical point.

- Instead, we win the teamlyle flip and don't risk the downside of lynching town!silver (which is STILL THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO)
So you read silver as town. That's good. One read.

If you're really convinced that you're 100% right about how well you've got this figured out, and how townie you are, aren't you worried about painting a big target on yourself for scums? Wouldn't it be better to put reads out there just in case?

- By lynching teamlyle WE GAIN ANOTHER DAY
This holds equally if he's lynched D2 or vigged.

PPE 2
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Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #631 on: December 17, 2016, 07:02:50 pm »

I don't read silver as town. The probability I assign to him being scum is still pretty close to the prior of 25%. And I don't think anyone has (or you) has sufficient evidence to shift this upwards to above 50 which makes lynching town!silver the scenario everyone should expect when lynching silver. And that scenario is awful in comparison to a teamlyle lynch, REGARDLESS of his alignment.
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Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #632 on: December 17, 2016, 07:05:04 pm »

This holds equally if he's lynched D2 or vigged.

But later days are much better for scumhunting in terms of odds.

But either way, now is now. I feel like we still have the possibility to lynch teamlyle. Do you really think it is better to lynch silver today just in order to gain his flip?
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Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #633 on: December 17, 2016, 07:15:01 pm »

So who else is online now and interested in trying to push something else through? It's just after midnight for me currently. I can be awake for about an hour more, maybe two, then I'll be asleep till after the deadline.
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Calamitas

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Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #634 on: December 17, 2016, 07:22:16 pm »

So who else is online now and interested in trying to push something else through? It's just after midnight for me currently. I can be awake for about an hour more, maybe two, then I'll be asleep till after the deadline.
It's 1:21am for me and I will be around for a while still. Anything other than out of {teamlyle, silver} is totally unrealistic though. Which option do you prefer?
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teamlyle

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Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #635 on: December 17, 2016, 07:50:20 pm »

@Calamitas: Lynching me does not "gain us another day." Did you read this? You probably did, but didn't want to acknowledge it.

Okay, let's say that we do lynch scum. Then we have 1 town, 1 scum, and 1 restless spirit. But what then? The last town dies because of the NK, and then GG.
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Calamitas

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Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #636 on: December 17, 2016, 07:52:48 pm »

@Calamitas: Lynching me does not "gain us another day." Did you read this? You probably did, but didn't want to acknowledge it.

Okay, let's say that we do lynch scum. Then we have 1 town, 1 scum, and 1 restless spirit. But what then? The last town dies because of the NK, and then GG.
That would be a scenario where even an additional live person instead of the spirit wouldn't do anything. I agree, those don't exist.
But there is no scenario where a restless spirit instead of a live person does worse.

3 town, 2 scum is winnable but either is 2 town, 2 scum and 1 spirit.
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Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #637 on: December 17, 2016, 07:54:20 pm »

But just for the record, why the hell did you even claim. Getting NKed would have been amazing with your role.
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Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #638 on: December 17, 2016, 08:14:14 pm »

Acting like teamlyle's alignment is (and will remain) unknowable is acting in bad faith, at this point. I have already stated how he can be IC-ified (or proven) scum later due to setup.

Also, any lynch where the odds of hitting scum are better than the prior is a good lynch. We don't need to reach a 50% confidence level.
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Calamitas

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Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #639 on: December 17, 2016, 08:17:50 pm »

Acting like teamlyle's alignment is (and will remain) unknowable is acting in bad faith, at this point. I have already stated how he can be IC-ified (or proven) scum later due to setup.

Also, any lynch where the odds of hitting scum are better than the prior is a good lynch. We don't need to reach a 50% confidence level.
I would agree with the last one in most setups but not this one. Even if teamlyle is able to get ICified (don't know how likely that is to happen) the lynch scenario is usually not that bad since we get another day in most scenarios (every scenario where we would end up in MyLo and the likelihood of ending up in MyLo is greater than 0.5)
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Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #640 on: December 17, 2016, 08:20:15 pm »

I panicked. If you really believe what you're saying, I'm probably going to die tonight. You're welcome :P
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"First place again, disciple!" -Ruikai
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"It's nice to have a good 'in your face' every once in a while." -Jacob
"OBJECTION!!! The witness is being SUPER gross." -Phoenix Wright
"Milord, Inquisitor Fey sentences that burger to my stomach!" -Maya Fey
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Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #641 on: December 17, 2016, 08:30:32 pm »

I panicked. If you really believe what you're saying, I'm probably going to die tonight. You're welcome :P
What the hell are you talking about?
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Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #642 on: December 17, 2016, 08:41:31 pm »

What the hell are you talking about?

I feel like your tone has been getting a bit aggressive in your most recent few posts. Maybe I'm misreading because text is hard to interpret, but could you please be aware that that's how you're coming across?
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Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #643 on: December 17, 2016, 08:43:45 pm »

What the hell are you talking about?

I feel like your tone has been getting a bit aggressive in your most recent few posts. Maybe I'm misreading because text is hard to interpret, but could you please be aware that that's how you're coming across?
Nah, probably not missreading. It is quite late and I'm genuinely annoyed by senseless comments like that after investing that much effort. But yeah, you're right, probably need to tone down.
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Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #644 on: December 17, 2016, 08:50:57 pm »

Acting like teamlyle's alignment is (and will remain) unknowable is acting in bad faith, at this point. I have already stated how he can be IC-ified (or proven) scum later due to setup.

Also, any lynch where the odds of hitting scum are better than the prior is a good lynch. We don't need to reach a 50% confidence level.
I would agree with the last one in most setups but not this one. Even if teamlyle is able to get ICified (don't know how likely that is to happen) the lynch scenario is usually not that bad since we get another day in most scenarios (every scenario where we would end up in MyLo and the likelihood of ending up in MyLo is greater than 0.5)

Ok, last time I address this argument. If anyone starts talking about this again during D2 I am instantly voting for them. We've already lost one day of scumhunting, I will not let us lose a second one.

Your point is that, if we would get to MYLO naturally, then lynching teamlyle is a "free lynch" (for a given definition of "free lynch", since scum might still get to quickhammer under those circumstances). The advantage of your plan is that we get the flip for teamlyle for free, assuming we would reach MYLO naturally, otherwise we just spent a lynch on someone that is likely to be town!

Second, the advantage of your plan can be emulated by a late game massclaim. Which does not require to take the risk of wasting a lynch! Hell, worst case scenario, even if the massclaim is not enough, we can still lynch teamlyle, no harm done! So your plan is strictly worse than waiting for a massclaim.

Last, but not least, even if going with your plan, you are not even sure if lynching teamlyle is something that is better done D1 or D4! An easy analogy is a lurker lynch. Something that anyone can get behind for reasons other than scuminess, completely non-accountable, and something that will likely have to be done at some point in the game. But ask any of the vets, and they will tell you that a lurker lynch D1 is a terrible idea, because if you are wrong, you start D2 with barely any new information compared to D1. D1 is the day when you try to get people to tie themselves to other people, post content, etc, so that you have something to analyze the two flips that come before D2.

Anyway, done.
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Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #645 on: December 17, 2016, 09:00:44 pm »

Was Paco's vote for silver back at post #492 invalid? It never seems to have made it into Vote Count 1.5 (at post #514).

If it's not invalid somehow, then LL's vote at #543 would actually have been L-1, and Robz's at #583 would have been a hammer.
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Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #646 on: December 17, 2016, 09:01:23 pm »

Acting like teamlyle's alignment is (and will remain) unknowable is acting in bad faith, at this point. I have already stated how he can be IC-ified (or proven) scum later due to setup.

Also, any lynch where the odds of hitting scum are better than the prior is a good lynch. We don't need to reach a 50% confidence level.
I would agree with the last one in most setups but not this one. Even if teamlyle is able to get ICified (don't know how likely that is to happen) the lynch scenario is usually not that bad since we get another day in most scenarios (every scenario where we would end up in MyLo and the likelihood of ending up in MyLo is greater than 0.5)

Ok, last time I address this argument. If anyone starts talking about this again during D2 I am instantly voting for them. We've already lost one day of scumhunting, I will not let us lose a second one.

Your point is that, if we would get to MYLO naturally, then lynching teamlyle is a "free lynch" (for a given definition of "free lynch", since scum might still get to quickhammer under those circumstances). The advantage of your plan is that we get the flip for teamlyle for free, assuming we would reach MYLO naturally, otherwise we just spent a lynch on someone that is likely to be town!

Second, the advantage of your plan can be emulated by a late game massclaim. Which does not require to take the risk of wasting a lynch! Hell, worst case scenario, even if the massclaim is not enough, we can still lynch teamlyle, no harm done! So your plan is strictly worse than waiting for a massclaim.

Last, but not least, even if going with your plan, you are not even sure if lynching teamlyle is something that is better done D1 or D4! An easy analogy is a lurker lynch. Something that anyone can get behind for reasons other than scuminess, completely non-accountable, and something that will likely have to be done at some point in the game. But ask any of the vets, and they will tell you that a lurker lynch D1 is a terrible idea, because if you are wrong, you start D2 with barely any new information compared to D1. D1 is the day when you try to get people to tie themselves to other people, post content, etc, so that you have something to analyze the two flips that come before D2.

Anyway, done.
The probability of reaching MyLo is way greater than 50% while the quotient between the probability that teamlyle is scum and the probability that silver is scum is not even close to 0.5
And I am sure that lynching teamlyle is better done D1 than D4, this is why I am even pressing this. The odds of hitting scum are way way way greater D4 than D2.

And lurker lynches are NOT a good analogy because lurker misslynches don't have reduced downsides. Here in more than half of all scenarios a teamlyle misslynch doesn't cost us a lynch.

And just for the record, isn't that exactly the sort of stuff you wanna avoid :D
Quote
Ok, last time I address this argument. If anyone starts talking about this again during D2 I am instantly voting for them. We've already lost one day of scumhunting, I will not let us lose a second one.
Logged
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Calamitas

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Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #647 on: December 17, 2016, 09:02:17 pm »

Was Paco's vote for silver back at post #492 invalid? It never seems to have made it into Vote Count 1.5 (at post #514).

If it's not invalid somehow, then LL's vote at #543 would actually have been L-1, and Robz's at #583 would have been a hammer.
Does that sort of stuff count if there is a vote count in between? I think those are considered mod-confirmed, aren't they?
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Oh, i just don't like mafia games.

Town (5/9): M85, RMM35, M87, NM9, M90RMM38, M92, M91, M102,
Scum (3/3): M84, M88, M100

MVPs (1): M84

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Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #648 on: December 17, 2016, 09:09:20 pm »

Was Paco's vote for silver back at post #492 invalid? It never seems to have made it into Vote Count 1.5 (at post #514).

If it's not invalid somehow, then LL's vote at #543 would actually have been L-1, and Robz's at #583 would have been a hammer.
Does that sort of stuff count if there is a vote count in between? I think those are considered mod-confirmed, aren't they?

I'm not sure, hence the bolded question to get faust's attention. I've certainly seen players correct mods' counts a lot of times, so I know they're not set in stone. Paco himself commented that he'd thought he was already voting silver, but not till after count 1.6, when his original vote was just prior to count 1.5... The fact the error has persisted through two vote counts might be a bit problematic.
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pacovf

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Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #649 on: December 17, 2016, 09:12:33 pm »

Acting like teamlyle's alignment is (and will remain) unknowable is acting in bad faith, at this point. I have already stated how he can be IC-ified (or proven) scum later due to setup.

Also, any lynch where the odds of hitting scum are better than the prior is a good lynch. We don't need to reach a 50% confidence level.
I would agree with the last one in most setups but not this one. Even if teamlyle is able to get ICified (don't know how likely that is to happen) the lynch scenario is usually not that bad since we get another day in most scenarios (every scenario where we would end up in MyLo and the likelihood of ending up in MyLo is greater than 0.5)

Ok, last time I address this argument. If anyone starts talking about this again during D2 I am instantly voting for them. We've already lost one day of scumhunting, I will not let us lose a second one.

Your point is that, if we would get to MYLO naturally, then lynching teamlyle is a "free lynch" (for a given definition of "free lynch", since scum might still get to quickhammer under those circumstances). The advantage of your plan is that we get the flip for teamlyle for free, assuming we would reach MYLO naturally, otherwise we just spent a lynch on someone that is likely to be town!

Second, the advantage of your plan can be emulated by a late game massclaim. Which does not require to take the risk of wasting a lynch! Hell, worst case scenario, even if the massclaim is not enough, we can still lynch teamlyle, no harm done! So your plan is strictly worse than waiting for a massclaim.

Last, but not least, even if going with your plan, you are not even sure if lynching teamlyle is something that is better done D1 or D4! An easy analogy is a lurker lynch. Something that anyone can get behind for reasons other than scuminess, completely non-accountable, and something that will likely have to be done at some point in the game. But ask any of the vets, and they will tell you that a lurker lynch D1 is a terrible idea, because if you are wrong, you start D2 with barely any new information compared to D1. D1 is the day when you try to get people to tie themselves to other people, post content, etc, so that you have something to analyze the two flips that come before D2.

Anyway, done.
The probability of reaching MyLo is way greater than 50% while the quotient between the probability that teamlyle is scum and the probability that silver is scum is not even close to 0.5
And I am sure that lynching teamlyle is better done D1 than D4, this is why I am even pressing this. The odds of hitting scum are way way way greater D4 than D2.

And lurker lynches are NOT a good analogy because lurker misslynches don't have reduced downsides. Here in more than half of all scenarios a teamlyle misslynch doesn't cost us a lynch.

And just for the record, isn't that exactly the sort of stuff you wanna avoid :D
Quote
Ok, last time I address this argument. If anyone starts talking about this again during D2 I am instantly voting for them. We've already lost one day of scumhunting, I will not let us lose a second one.

The reason why the odds of hitting scum D4 are greater than D1 is because we have extra information from the way people have acted during the previous 3 days, together with the flips. Lynching teamlyle is a non-accountable lynch, so it does not help your argument. In fact, wasting most of a day with theory talk is an even bigger part of the problem.

And you are still ignoring that we will get teamlyle's alignment with the massclaim, so your quotient between the odds of silver or teamlyle being scum is not applicable either.
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pacovf has a neopets account.  It has 999 hours logged.  All his neopets are named "Jessica".  I guess that must be his ex.
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