Dominion Strategy Forum

Please login or register.

Login with username, password and session length
Pages: 1 ... 22 23 [24] 25 26 ... 63  All

Author Topic: M90: Literature Mafia (Scum wins!)  (Read 154782 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

teamlyle

  • Young Witch
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 145
  • Shuffle iT Username: La-Ya
  • Ah... German Hello?
    • View Profile
Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #575 on: December 17, 2016, 12:23:31 pm »

Yes, it is worse. All games include a Universal Back-up.
Logged
"In your face." -Jacob
"Ooh. You just got burned." -Jack
"First place again, disciple!" -Ruikai
"Ugh... 399 cursors. Time to hack!" -Ben
"You gotta do your homework, dude!" -Yul
"Come on man, let the plat play." -The Plat
"It's nice to have a good 'in your face' every once in a while." -Jacob
"OBJECTION!!! The witness is being SUPER gross." -Phoenix Wright
"Milord, Inquisitor Fey sentences that burger to my stomach!" -Maya Fey
"Dude, I only had 4 cups of coffee this morning so I'm gonna crash." -Swi
"Okay, okay. My team name is: Team Lyle: the Advancing Armadillo." -Lyle
"I’m sorry Cedric, we just have to do what we have to do to get me to be a op." -Paul
"Well, I prefer loyal people. I don’t want anyone to be a La-Ya except for me." -La-Ya
"I don't play Monkey vs. Monkey. I'm too busy in pacifist mode, watching my buildings survive and thrive!" -Joshua
Lyle's mom: Are you guys going to play regular Dominion, or are you going to play cheat?
Lyle: Of course we're playing Cheat Dominion!

teamlyle

  • Young Witch
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 145
  • Shuffle iT Username: La-Ya
  • Ah... German Hello?
    • View Profile
Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #576 on: December 17, 2016, 12:24:30 pm »

And it's especially good for scum if a restless spirit dies first because of it (idk why I claimed restless spirit  :( )
Logged
"In your face." -Jacob
"Ooh. You just got burned." -Jack
"First place again, disciple!" -Ruikai
"Ugh... 399 cursors. Time to hack!" -Ben
"You gotta do your homework, dude!" -Yul
"Come on man, let the plat play." -The Plat
"It's nice to have a good 'in your face' every once in a while." -Jacob
"OBJECTION!!! The witness is being SUPER gross." -Phoenix Wright
"Milord, Inquisitor Fey sentences that burger to my stomach!" -Maya Fey
"Dude, I only had 4 cups of coffee this morning so I'm gonna crash." -Swi
"Okay, okay. My team name is: Team Lyle: the Advancing Armadillo." -Lyle
"I’m sorry Cedric, we just have to do what we have to do to get me to be a op." -Paul
"Well, I prefer loyal people. I don’t want anyone to be a La-Ya except for me." -La-Ya
"I don't play Monkey vs. Monkey. I'm too busy in pacifist mode, watching my buildings survive and thrive!" -Joshua
Lyle's mom: Are you guys going to play regular Dominion, or are you going to play cheat?
Lyle: Of course we're playing Cheat Dominion!

Robz888

  • Margrave
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 2644
  • Shuffle iT Username: Robz888
    • View Profile
Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #577 on: December 17, 2016, 12:24:49 pm »

Yes, it is worse. All games include a Universal Back-up.

What Calamitas is saying--correctly--is that in one of the scenarios where have a Restless Spirit, it's because the UB was converted to a Restless Spirit pre-game. That's what happens with a single V role.

Where he's getting the 1 in 4 statistic from I can't tell.
Logged
I have been forced to accept that lackluster play is a town tell for you.

teamlyle

  • Young Witch
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 145
  • Shuffle iT Username: La-Ya
  • Ah... German Hello?
    • View Profile
Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #578 on: December 17, 2016, 12:26:39 pm »

Oh, okay. That makes sense.
Logged
"In your face." -Jacob
"Ooh. You just got burned." -Jack
"First place again, disciple!" -Ruikai
"Ugh... 399 cursors. Time to hack!" -Ben
"You gotta do your homework, dude!" -Yul
"Come on man, let the plat play." -The Plat
"It's nice to have a good 'in your face' every once in a while." -Jacob
"OBJECTION!!! The witness is being SUPER gross." -Phoenix Wright
"Milord, Inquisitor Fey sentences that burger to my stomach!" -Maya Fey
"Dude, I only had 4 cups of coffee this morning so I'm gonna crash." -Swi
"Okay, okay. My team name is: Team Lyle: the Advancing Armadillo." -Lyle
"I’m sorry Cedric, we just have to do what we have to do to get me to be a op." -Paul
"Well, I prefer loyal people. I don’t want anyone to be a La-Ya except for me." -La-Ya
"I don't play Monkey vs. Monkey. I'm too busy in pacifist mode, watching my buildings survive and thrive!" -Joshua
Lyle's mom: Are you guys going to play regular Dominion, or are you going to play cheat?
Lyle: Of course we're playing Cheat Dominion!

Calamitas

  • Tactician
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 407
  • Shuffle iT Username: Calamitas
    • View Profile
Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #579 on: December 17, 2016, 12:26:44 pm »

Yes, it is worse. All games include a Universal Back-up.

What Calamitas is saying--correctly--is that in one of the scenarios where have a Restless Spirit, it's because the UB was converted to a Restless Spirit pre-game. That's what happens with a single V role.

Where he's getting the 1 in 4 statistic from I can't tell.
Have used my simulator
Logged
Oh, i just don't like mafia games.

Town (5/9): M85, RMM35, M87, NM9, M90RMM38, M92, M91, M102,
Scum (3/3): M84, M88, M100

MVPs (1): M84

Robz888

  • Margrave
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 2644
  • Shuffle iT Username: Robz888
    • View Profile
Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #580 on: December 17, 2016, 12:39:59 pm »

I do feel like Calamitas would definitely be on this crusade regardless of his alignment. I think he can't resist making stats-based arguments.
Logged
I have been forced to accept that lackluster play is a town tell for you.

gkrieg13

  • Board Moderator
  • *
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 509
  • Shuffle iT Username: gkrieg
    • View Profile
Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #581 on: December 17, 2016, 12:40:37 pm »

But doesn't all of your stuff not take into account of people actually having to lynch someone who isn't already IC?

I think the fact that we have crazy less information D2 is the biggest thing for me.  People taking stances on lynching teamlyle doesn't give us much, but the fact that we are giving up an opportunity to lynch scum is a big deal!

Even if we lynch him later, it is much better to lynch someone who gives us information on where people are standing.  You are essentially saying it would've been better to start D1 with a restless spirit and one fewer town.  That is ridiculous!

If we lynch teamlyle today, it will be similar to us starting D1 all over again, because taking a stand on teamlyle is pretty alignment unindicative.
Logged

gkrieg13

  • Board Moderator
  • *
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 509
  • Shuffle iT Username: gkrieg
    • View Profile
Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #582 on: December 17, 2016, 12:41:15 pm »

I do feel like Calamitas would definitely be on this crusade regardless of his alignment. I think he can't resist making stats-based arguments.

I agree that he is similar to faust and ashersky, he makes setup posts regardless of alignment and sticks to them
Logged

Robz888

  • Margrave
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 2644
  • Shuffle iT Username: Robz888
    • View Profile
Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #583 on: December 17, 2016, 12:47:42 pm »

Vote: silverspawn

That's L-1. Want to give silverspawn enough time to claim, since this seems to be where we are headed. Think he said he had to depart for good soon.
Logged
I have been forced to accept that lackluster play is a town tell for you.

Calamitas

  • Tactician
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 407
  • Shuffle iT Username: Calamitas
    • View Profile
Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #584 on: December 17, 2016, 12:52:16 pm »

But doesn't all of your stuff not take into account of people actually having to lynch someone who isn't already IC?

I think the fact that we have crazy less information D2 is the biggest thing for me.  People taking stances on lynching teamlyle doesn't give us much, but the fact that we are giving up an opportunity to lynch scum is a big deal!

Even if we lynch him later, it is much better to lynch someone who gives us information on where people are standing.  You are essentially saying it would've been better to start D1 with a restless spirit and one fewer town.  That is ridiculous!

If we lynch teamlyle today, it will be similar to us starting D1 all over again, because taking a stand on teamlyle is pretty alignment unindicative.
TEAMLYLE IS NOT AN IC!!!!!
Logged
Oh, i just don't like mafia games.

Town (5/9): M85, RMM35, M87, NM9, M90RMM38, M92, M91, M102,
Scum (3/3): M84, M88, M100

MVPs (1): M84

Robz888

  • Margrave
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 2644
  • Shuffle iT Username: Robz888
    • View Profile
Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #585 on: December 17, 2016, 12:54:09 pm »

Vote: silverspawn

That's L-1. Want to give silverspawn enough time to claim, since this seems to be where we are headed. Think he said he had to depart for good soon.

So I went back to look for this post, I was wrong. It was LaLight who said something to this effect, not silverspawn. LaLight also said a number of weird, panicky things about Eevee spreading votes, us getting to No Lynch etc, even though we have plenty of time left.

That really struck me as off. LaLight is a really good player who pays close attention. I've only seen him as town, though. Him being paranoid about a deadline that wasn't even looming yet... I read it as scummy because it's so not in keeping with what I've seen from, and I've only seen him as town. Perhaps he's not as good as scum and was trying (badly) to feign townish considerations.

I doubt there's any interest in a lynch here, but LaLight just shot up to the top of my suspicion list.
Logged
I have been forced to accept that lackluster play is a town tell for you.

Calamitas

  • Tactician
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 407
  • Shuffle iT Username: Calamitas
    • View Profile
Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #586 on: December 17, 2016, 12:57:41 pm »

Vote: silverspawn

That's L-1. Want to give silverspawn enough time to claim, since this seems to be where we are headed. Think he said he had to depart for good soon.

So I went back to look for this post, I was wrong. It was LaLight who said something to this effect, not silverspawn. LaLight also said a number of weird, panicky things about Eevee spreading votes, us getting to No Lynch etc, even though we have plenty of time left.

That really struck me as off. LaLight is a really good player who pays close attention. I've only seen him as town, though. Him being paranoid about a deadline that wasn't even looming yet... I read it as scummy because it's so not in keeping with what I've seen from, and I've only seen him as town. Perhaps he's not as good as scum and was trying (badly) to feign townish considerations.

I doubt there's any interest in a lynch here, but LaLight just shot up to the top of my suspicion list.
But it's clearly not enough to justify not lynching teamlyle here...
Logged
Oh, i just don't like mafia games.

Town (5/9): M85, RMM35, M87, NM9, M90RMM38, M92, M91, M102,
Scum (3/3): M84, M88, M100

MVPs (1): M84

Calamitas

  • Tactician
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 407
  • Shuffle iT Username: Calamitas
    • View Profile
Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #587 on: December 17, 2016, 01:05:51 pm »

Teamlyle is going to get lynched in every MyLo scenario. There is no realistic scenario that makes this statement false (if there is, please point one out).

The question is, do we have a better shot at winning the game if we delay the lynch up until then. Can we agree that this is the question we have to deal with (@robz, @eevee, @SA)?
Logged
Oh, i just don't like mafia games.

Town (5/9): M85, RMM35, M87, NM9, M90RMM38, M92, M91, M102,
Scum (3/3): M84, M88, M100

MVPs (1): M84

Calamitas

  • Tactician
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 407
  • Shuffle iT Username: Calamitas
    • View Profile
Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #588 on: December 17, 2016, 01:07:38 pm »

Teamlyle is going to get lynched in every MyLo scenario. There is no realistic scenario that makes this statement false (if there is, please point one out).

The question is, do we have a better shot at winning the game if we delay the lynch up until then. Can we agree that this is the question we have to deal with (@robz, @eevee, @SA)?
And @gkrieg
Logged
Oh, i just don't like mafia games.

Town (5/9): M85, RMM35, M87, NM9, M90RMM38, M92, M91, M102,
Scum (3/3): M84, M88, M100

MVPs (1): M84

LaLight

  • Jester
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 774
  • Shuffle iT Username: LaLight
  • Because I'm a potato
    • View Profile
Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #589 on: December 17, 2016, 01:10:02 pm »

Vote: silverspawn

That's L-1. Want to give silverspawn enough time to claim, since this seems to be where we are headed. Think he said he had to depart for good soon.

So I went back to look for this post, I was wrong. It was LaLight who said something to this effect, not silverspawn. LaLight also said a number of weird, panicky things about Eevee spreading votes, us getting to No Lynch etc, even though we have plenty of time left.

That really struck me as off. LaLight is a really good player who pays close attention. I've only seen him as town, though. Him being paranoid about a deadline that wasn't even looming yet... I read it as scummy because it's so not in keeping with what I've seen from, and I've only seen him as town. Perhaps he's not as good as scum and was trying (badly) to feign townish considerations.

I doubt there's any interest in a lynch here, but LaLight just shot up to the top of my suspicion list.

Well, when there's too much people, 17 hours may be not a big amount of time. I still remember all these no lynches or mislynches that depended on 20-30% of people online on deadline. Usually someone says "Well, I'm departing 2 hours before DL" and then no one can lynch the scummiest player. That's why.
Logged
Wins: 15, 10
Losses: 11, 5, 1
Draws: 1
MVPs: 4
Mod/Co-mod: 18

I always have a limited access to forum on weekends.

Calamitas

  • Tactician
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 407
  • Shuffle iT Username: Calamitas
    • View Profile
Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #590 on: December 17, 2016, 01:11:38 pm »

Vote: silverspawn

That's L-1. Want to give silverspawn enough time to claim, since this seems to be where we are headed. Think he said he had to depart for good soon.

So I went back to look for this post, I was wrong. It was LaLight who said something to this effect, not silverspawn. LaLight also said a number of weird, panicky things about Eevee spreading votes, us getting to No Lynch etc, even though we have plenty of time left.

That really struck me as off. LaLight is a really good player who pays close attention. I've only seen him as town, though. Him being paranoid about a deadline that wasn't even looming yet... I read it as scummy because it's so not in keeping with what I've seen from, and I've only seen him as town. Perhaps he's not as good as scum and was trying (badly) to feign townish considerations.

I doubt there's any interest in a lynch here, but LaLight just shot up to the top of my suspicion list.

Well, when there's too much people, 17 hours may be not a big amount of time. I still remember all these no lynches or mislynches that depended on 20-30% of people online on deadline. Usually someone says "Well, I'm departing 2 hours before DL" and then no one can lynch the scummiest player. That's why.
please put your vote on teamlyle if you think that is right, we won't have a no lynch. Enough active people are lingering around
Logged
Oh, i just don't like mafia games.

Town (5/9): M85, RMM35, M87, NM9, M90RMM38, M92, M91, M102,
Scum (3/3): M84, M88, M100

MVPs (1): M84

Robz888

  • Margrave
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 2644
  • Shuffle iT Username: Robz888
    • View Profile
Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #591 on: December 17, 2016, 01:15:07 pm »

Teamlyle is going to get lynched in every MyLo scenario. There is no realistic scenario that makes this statement false (if there is, please point one out).

The question is, do we have a better shot at winning the game if we delay the lynch up until then. Can we agree that this is the question we have to deal with (@robz, @eevee, @SA)?

Yes, that's the question, and I think the answer is no, in large part because there's very low chance of lynching scum on Day 1 if we lynch teamlyle, and much higher chance if lynch someone from my narrower pool, and lynching scum on Day 1 is what matters. And then even if we fail at that, we have much better info.
Logged
I have been forced to accept that lackluster play is a town tell for you.

Robz888

  • Margrave
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 2644
  • Shuffle iT Username: Robz888
    • View Profile
Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #592 on: December 17, 2016, 01:16:01 pm »

And Calamitas, I don't mind you continuing to drive this home and argue with us, but it is a problem if you do that instead of taking positions. Like, I would like to know what you thought of my suspicions of LaLight.

Also, do you think I'm scummy for disagreeing with? Is Eevee? Is gkrieg?
Logged
I have been forced to accept that lackluster play is a town tell for you.

Calamitas

  • Tactician
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 407
  • Shuffle iT Username: Calamitas
    • View Profile
Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #593 on: December 17, 2016, 01:23:16 pm »

And Calamitas, I don't mind you continuing to drive this home and argue with us, but it is a problem if you do that instead of taking positions. Like, I would like to know what you thought of my suspicions of LaLight.

Also, do you think I'm scummy for disagreeing with? Is Eevee? Is gkrieg?
I don't really have stances on the latter ones and I don't think the stuff in regard to LaLight is pretty alignment indicative.
Logged
Oh, i just don't like mafia games.

Town (5/9): M85, RMM35, M87, NM9, M90RMM38, M92, M91, M102,
Scum (3/3): M84, M88, M100

MVPs (1): M84

Calamitas

  • Tactician
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 407
  • Shuffle iT Username: Calamitas
    • View Profile
Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #594 on: December 17, 2016, 01:42:13 pm »

Okay, now let's look whether an earlier lynch of teamlyle is better than a later one:

I agree that we have a slightly smaller chance of hitting scum today. But it is not really much I think. Silver has done nothing pretty alignment indicative I think, he is an insanely good scum player after all.
Tomorrow, we would have a notably smaller amount of information, but it is not as much as one might think. Really, the only thing we would have more is the silver flip. Most have already stated their  opinions on him. And I wouldn't call the teamlyle flip that unindicative. A scum flip would obviously be pretty indicative and in case of a townflip we have still things we can work with. The scum night kill will give us additional info as well, in either case.

The actually decisive moment is the day where we would otherwise lynch teamlyle (MyLo). In terms of information and odds, this day is our best shot at hitting scum. The discrepancy of information between both D2s doesn't outweigh the discrepancy between being able to use the later day (D3/D4 or D5; dependent on when MyLo would be) for a scumhunting lynch instead of taking out Teamlyle then.
By lynching teamlyle today, we are trading off information we have tomorrow against an additional late day we may use for lynching. And the latter one is a lot more important than the former.
Logged
Oh, i just don't like mafia games.

Town (5/9): M85, RMM35, M87, NM9, M90RMM38, M92, M91, M102,
Scum (3/3): M84, M88, M100

MVPs (1): M84

pacovf

  • Cartographer
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 3499
  • Multiediting poster
    • View Profile
Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #595 on: December 17, 2016, 01:44:20 pm »

Not read everything yet, but the deadline is TOMORROW AT 4AM. The deadline is definitely REALLY close. Will read and post again.
Logged
pacovf has a neopets account.  It has 999 hours logged.  All his neopets are named "Jessica".  I guess that must be his ex.

pacovf

  • Cartographer
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 3499
  • Multiediting poster
    • View Profile
Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #596 on: December 17, 2016, 01:47:47 pm »

I mean, your argument depends on us reaching MYLO naturally. Which is not guaranteed to happen, there could be roleblocking, virgins, vigs, etc. And then your argument falls short. Especially since teamlyle can be IC-ified from later setup considerations (presence of UB, scum flips, massclaim).
Logged
pacovf has a neopets account.  It has 999 hours logged.  All his neopets are named "Jessica".  I guess that must be his ex.

pacovf

  • Cartographer
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 3499
  • Multiediting poster
    • View Profile
Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #597 on: December 17, 2016, 01:49:29 pm »

Theory talk is not alignment indicative, and that's what we are spending the end of D1 on. Considering that (IMHO) your conclusion is just not solid enough, we should stop that and go into a regular alignment-based lynch.

Sorry for the triple post.
Logged
pacovf has a neopets account.  It has 999 hours logged.  All his neopets are named "Jessica".  I guess that must be his ex.

Calamitas

  • Tactician
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 407
  • Shuffle iT Username: Calamitas
    • View Profile
Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #598 on: December 17, 2016, 01:51:05 pm »

I mean, your argument depends on us reaching MYLO naturally. Which is not guaranteed to happen, there could be roleblocking, virgins, vigs, etc. And then your argument falls short. Especially since teamlyle can be IC-ified from later setup considerations (presence of UB, scum flips, massclaim).
Not really, in that scenario it is strictly better I say. It is pretty good in every scenario because we get a flip and a lynchpool reduction without losing a vote in any given scenario. Also, we still have a quite decent chance of hitting scum. And the chance of ending up in MyLo is still way greater than 50%.
Logged
Oh, i just don't like mafia games.

Town (5/9): M85, RMM35, M87, NM9, M90RMM38, M92, M91, M102,
Scum (3/3): M84, M88, M100

MVPs (1): M84

pacovf

  • Cartographer
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 3499
  • Multiediting poster
    • View Profile
Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #599 on: December 17, 2016, 01:52:13 pm »

Are you arguing that teamlyle is likely to be scum?

What do you make of my argument that his alignment will eventually be revealed anyway because of setup considerations?
Logged
pacovf has a neopets account.  It has 999 hours logged.  All his neopets are named "Jessica".  I guess that must be his ex.
Pages: 1 ... 22 23 [24] 25 26 ... 63  All
 

Page created in 0.05 seconds with 20 queries.