@anyone who is currently not voting teamlyle:
1. Do you agree that lynching teamlyle now is strictly better in every scenario where we face MyLo at some point?
2. With what confidence can you say your top scumread is actual scum?
3. With what confidence can you say teamlyle is town?
4. Do you agree that a dead teamlyle is at least as good as a live teamlyle scenario in regard to endgame scenarios?
If you cannot answer question 1 and 4 please (re-)read my analysis posts in regard to teamlyle
1. I'm really not sure. I've been a part of some pretty sucky day 2s after we tried random lynching or something like that. It has just never worked out to not play a natural day 1, lynching the scummiest person. I understand this is a frustrating argument for someone approaching it so analytically as you.
2. I feel goood about my case, for day 1. And, at least it's A CASE, there is stuff to analyze even if it ends up being misguided. Conversely, as much as I feel silver is a good shot at hitting scum, I feel that teamlyle is like the most likely person to be town. The claim makes so much more sense coming from a newer town with an exciting role, than it does from someone appearing to be a little lost in the game... would scum that is this way be so bold to claim a role where lynching you is this lucrative for town? I don't think he'd do that, I just don't.
3. ^ Biggest townread, even.
4. Dead teamlyle's don't tell tales. Or talk at all otherwise. We'd be missing out.
Eevee basically nails it in this post, but I'll do one anyway.
1. No. For instance, it's not better if there's a Vig in this game. Also I don't really understand why we have to lynch him on Day 1. We have to lynch him at some point, yes. But your analysis is assuming he's town, in which case, it's better to keep a town player alive for longer, to benefit from his reads. He's going to be a dead IC who can't talk, and that significantly detracts from his utility. You're putting a lot of emphasis on the improved MYLO aspect of this, but I'd rather not plan to get to MYLO. Games that are won get won early, more often than not.
2. Every player has, what, a 25% chance to be scum? More than that, actually, because I know I'm not scum, so it's 3/11, whatever that is. I think mcmc and in all honesty Eevee at this point (so obvious now that in hindsight their fight was town on town) are very likely town, so that brings it down to about 3/9. I'm also pretty sure teamlyle is actually town. So I'd give my top scum!read something like 50% chance of being scum. Scum to town: WitherWeaver, silverspawn, SA, JReggie, gkrieg, pacovf, LaLight, Calamitas. Something like that.
3. Maybe 70%.
4. Yes, but we can just lynch him then.