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Author Topic: M90: Literature Mafia (Scum wins!)  (Read 154858 times)

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silverspawn

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Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #500 on: December 16, 2016, 10:01:25 pm »

Lynching scum Day 1 is much huger than lynching scum Day 2. The statistic would bear this out.
I don't believe that.

remember we're comparing only the time of the scum lynch, so we're talking scum lynch -> town lynch vs town lynch -> scum lynch.

...why are we only comparing those two? Why should scum lynch lead into town lynch? Surely the information from lynching scum D1 would lead to better odds of lynching scum D2?

okay, sure, day-1-scum-lynch into adjust probability, rather than assuming a town lynch would be more accurate.

pacovf

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Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #501 on: December 16, 2016, 10:32:47 pm »

...and why would lynching teamlyle today lead to a scum lynch tomorrow?

I really fail to see where the logic in your argument is.
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pacovf

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Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #502 on: December 16, 2016, 10:35:45 pm »

Furthermore, I disagree with the notion that we WILL lynch teamlyle at some point. While this setup makes counterclaims hard to pull off, it's not impossible. We just need to lynch a couple of scum to have a good idea on how many letters were rolled this game, then a massclaim clears everything out. Heck, even just the presence of a Universal Backup would be strong evidence against teamlyle's claim, while absence would all but confirm his claim.

Lynching teamlyle today is senseless.
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pacovf

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Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #503 on: December 16, 2016, 10:41:07 pm »

Finally, the deadline is actually REALLY CLOSE, people! Like 1.5 days away!

We need to get a lynch through as soon as possible. I was fine with a silver lynch before he started pushing for teamlyle because of his "I am contributing" sort of posts that lacked scumhunting, occasional easy votes, and the last development on why we should lynch teamlyle hasn't really changed my position. Sorry if this is just a disagreement on theory talk, but unfortunately D1 is the way it is...

I could maaaybe go for witherweaver instead (has one vote on him), or could move to Lalight or SA because they are the only real people that stood out to me as potential scum today, but doesn't seem terribly likely. I would only vote for Eevee or Calamitas if it's between that or no-lynch.
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mcmcsalot

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Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #504 on: December 16, 2016, 11:19:58 pm »

remember we're comparing only the time of the scum lynch, so we're talking scum lynch -> town lynch vs town lynch -> scum lynch.

...why are we only comparing those two? Why should scum lynch lead into town lynch? Surely the information from lynching scum D1 would lead to better odds of lynching scum D2?

Yes this is why lynching scum d1 has been proven to be brutal to scum teams. D1 scum acts way stranger toward eachother than any other day. A day one scum lynch usually results in narrowing the remaining scum to a lynchable pool.
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LaLight

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Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #505 on: December 17, 2016, 02:19:41 am »

Okay, I'm not really good in probability theories but I can't understand Silver here. Here's 4 scenarios of lynch:

Scum -> Scum
Scum -> Town
Town -> Scum
Town -> Town (let's not take a no-lynch into consideration)

If we lynch scum D1 we avoid the worst of it (4) and can achieve the best (1). Lynching townie we can't achieve the best and avoid the worst. Also, lynching scum D1 we have Reads and interactions for analyzing people D2, that's why lynching scum D1 is highly preferable to lynching Town (not talking about obv. reasons).

Vote: Pacovf. Slightly OMGUS, slightly me not liking his first post.

"I would only vote for Eevee or Calamitas if it's between that or no-lynch." (Sorry for no quotations)

It's D1! You look into your gut feelings mostly (esp. when there's 12 players) and you should be ready for lynching quite anyone (being town). You haven't explained why Eevee and Calamitas and also this sentence doesn't really make sense. What if they scumslip of anything? Scum's always sure about alignments of people, we can see it the vividest D1.
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silverspawn

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Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #506 on: December 17, 2016, 02:56:27 am »

no... pacovf is probably my second strongest town read. Let's not lynch.

silverspawn

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Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #507 on: December 17, 2016, 02:57:52 am »

...and why would lynching teamlyle today lead to a scum lynch tomorrow?

I really fail to see where the logic in your argument is.

You're pulling things out of context. The question I was asked was specifically whether a scum lynch day 1 was much more valuable than a scum lynch day 2. And it's not, it's just mildly more valuable. Someone asked that, you can go back and read who it was.

silverspawn

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Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #508 on: December 17, 2016, 03:00:04 am »

I don't have scumreads, but if we don't do teamlyle then I'd be fine with Eevee – informative flip and no town read despite lots of content – or SA, very safe play there.

silverspawn

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Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #509 on: December 17, 2016, 03:02:09 am »

Or gkrieg, WW, or LaLight... WW might also be more infortmative. The other two have the downside of not really having had any suspicion.

Calamitas

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Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #510 on: December 17, 2016, 05:44:50 am »

Come on guys, eveeything besides lynching teamlyle is just outright lunatic. Lynching teamlyle gives us another day, period. We are guaranteed to make it until D4, just like in the case of a scum lynch. A towb lynch doesn't provide this. Our odds of winning increase dramatically. And do you really think a fee tiny bits in terms of the probability to lynch scum today can balance that out? If someone would have scumalipped I would agree with lynching them, but we don't have strong reads here. So let's just lynch teamlyle, take the extra day IN ANY SCENARIO (scum!teamlyle and town!teamlyle) and start lynching our top scumreads tomorrow where our odds have improved.
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Town (5/9): M85, RMM35, M87, NM9, M90RMM38, M92, M91, M102,
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Calamitas

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Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #511 on: December 17, 2016, 05:51:05 am »

@SA Lynching teamlyle improves our odds at making it to the end (and winning it) massively in cobtrast to a town lynch.
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Town (5/9): M85, RMM35, M87, NM9, M90RMM38, M92, M91, M102,
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silverspawn

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Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #512 on: December 17, 2016, 06:28:19 am »

Come on guys, eveeything besides lynching teamlyle is just outright lunatic. Lynching teamlyle gives us another day, period. We are guaranteed to make it until D4, just like in the case of a scum lynch. A towb lynch doesn't provide this. Our odds of winning increase dramatically. And do you really think a fee tiny bits in terms of the probability to lynch scum today can balance that out? If someone would have scumalipped I would agree with lynching them, but we don't have strong reads here. So let's just lynch teamlyle, take the extra day IN ANY SCENARIO (scum!teamlyle and town!teamlyle) and start lynching our top scumreads tomorrow where our odds have improved.

The problem is that lynching teamlyle might create a stubborn non-talkative IC that's stuck on voting for me. In that case the theoretical superiority of that plan doesn't really help. But I'm totally with you otherwise.

Calamitas

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Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #513 on: December 17, 2016, 06:29:43 am »

Come on guys, eveeything besides lynching teamlyle is just outright lunatic. Lynching teamlyle gives us another day, period. We are guaranteed to make it until D4, just like in the case of a scum lynch. A towb lynch doesn't provide this. Our odds of winning increase dramatically. And do you really think a fee tiny bits in terms of the probability to lynch scum today can balance that out? If someone would have scumalipped I would agree with lynching them, but we don't have strong reads here. So let's just lynch teamlyle, take the extra day IN ANY SCENARIO (scum!teamlyle and town!teamlyle) and start lynching our top scumreads tomorrow where our odds have improved.

The problem is that lynching teamlyle might create a stubborn non-talkative IC that's stuck on voting for me. In that case the theoretical superiority of that plan doesn't really help. But I'm totally with you otherwise.
Better than a live stubborn not-IC and a shorter number of days...
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Oh, i just don't like mafia games.

Town (5/9): M85, RMM35, M87, NM9, M90RMM38, M92, M91, M102,
Scum (3/3): M84, M88, M100

MVPs (1): M84

faust

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Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #514 on: December 17, 2016, 06:34:21 am »

Vote Count 1.5

Eevee (2): mcmcsalot, Witherweaver
teamlyle (2): silverspawn, Clalamitas
silverspawn (3): Eevee, SpaceAnemone, teamlyle
Calamitas (2): gkrieg13, J Reggie
Witherweaver (1): Robz888
pacovf (1): LaLight

Not Voting (1): pacovf

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch. Day 1 starts now and ends December 18 at 4 am forum time.

I assume their win condition involves only living players, not total number of votes. Faust, can you confirm that?
See sample PMs for the mafia win condition.
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silverspawn

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Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #515 on: December 17, 2016, 06:47:48 am »

Better than a live stubborn not-IC and a shorter number of days...

Most likely it'd be the same number of days and then it's worse.

Calamitas

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Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #516 on: December 17, 2016, 06:50:08 am »

Better than a live stubborn not-IC and a shorter number of days...

Most likely it'd be the same number of days and then it's worse.
It wouldn't, why should it?
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Oh, i just don't like mafia games.

Town (5/9): M85, RMM35, M87, NM9, M90RMM38, M92, M91, M102,
Scum (3/3): M84, M88, M100

MVPs (1): M84

Calamitas

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Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #517 on: December 17, 2016, 07:01:20 am »

In this game we can afford 2.5 misslynches we can afford (2 misslynches and 1 no-lynch).
Lynching a restless spirit doesn't count as misslynch for that count, it has the same effect as no-lynch in that specific regard (a little better since 2 scum + town + restless spirit scenarios are actually winnable).
BUT, and this is a huge but, it doesn't have the downsides of no-lynch. We still have a decent chance to hit scum (it is not that much lower than in the case of other lynches) and we are able to still reduce our lynchpool. Our reads are a bit better in the future, but we definitely are going to lynch teamlyle at some point. At MyLo at latest. But that way we waste a good day (higher scum density, more info...) instead of D1 with a plain 25% chance of hitting scum.

Guys, please vote teamlyle. It is the right call and orders of magnitudes better than everything else!!!!!
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Oh, i just don't like mafia games.

Town (5/9): M85, RMM35, M87, NM9, M90RMM38, M92, M91, M102,
Scum (3/3): M84, M88, M100

MVPs (1): M84

silverspawn

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Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #518 on: December 17, 2016, 08:12:32 am »

doesn't work out of lynched!teamlyle doesn't try to play the game properly

vote: eevee

Calamitas

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Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #519 on: December 17, 2016, 08:19:28 am »

doesn't work out of lynched!teamlyle doesn't try to play the game properly

vote: eevee
It does work out. It still gives us an additional day!
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Oh, i just don't like mafia games.

Town (5/9): M85, RMM35, M87, NM9, M90RMM38, M92, M91, M102,
Scum (3/3): M84, M88, M100

MVPs (1): M84

silverspawn

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Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #520 on: December 17, 2016, 08:22:42 am »

no, if teamlyle doesn't cooperate, it's just like any other town(?) lynch.

Calamitas

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Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #521 on: December 17, 2016, 08:23:48 am »

no, if teamlyle doesn't cooperate, it's just like any other town(?) lynch.
He will cooperate, he isn't stupid
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Oh, i just don't like mafia games.

Town (5/9): M85, RMM35, M87, NM9, M90RMM38, M92, M91, M102,
Scum (3/3): M84, M88, M100

MVPs (1): M84

Calamitas

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Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #522 on: December 17, 2016, 09:22:59 am »

Come on guys, don't you see that not lynching teamlyle would be just insane...we are going to do it at mylo anyways (we are an even number) and today is just orders of magnitudes better. Even town!teamlyle should see that and self-vote...
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Oh, i just don't like mafia games.

Town (5/9): M85, RMM35, M87, NM9, M90RMM38, M92, M91, M102,
Scum (3/3): M84, M88, M100

MVPs (1): M84

LaLight

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Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #523 on: December 17, 2016, 09:24:29 am »

no, if teamlyle doesn't cooperate, it's just like any other town(?) lynch.

This is really strange post. For what reason Teamlyle won't cooperate? You presume, he won't be reading the thread?

Overall I agree with Calamitas about lynching Teamlyle, but after this post i'm inclined to Vote: Silverspawn because it's just scummy.
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Wins: 15, 10
Losses: 11, 5, 1
Draws: 1
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Calamitas

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Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #524 on: December 17, 2016, 09:25:59 am »

no, if teamlyle doesn't cooperate, it's just like any other town(?) lynch.

This is really strange post. For what reason Teamlyle won't cooperate? You presume, he won't be reading the thread?

Overall I agree with Calamitas about lynching Teamlyle, but after this post i'm inclined to Vote: Silverspawn because it's just scummy.
Then you don't agree with me. Unless you are really really sure that silver is scum (let's say way beyond 50%) you should not vote anyone else!!!
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Oh, i just don't like mafia games.

Town (5/9): M85, RMM35, M87, NM9, M90RMM38, M92, M91, M102,
Scum (3/3): M84, M88, M100

MVPs (1): M84
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