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[Eevee]

Well, generally speaking, the lynch of a restless spirit is almost a free one in terms of costs in regard to the endgame. Therefore, in contrast to any other D1 misslynch, that one wouldn't bring scum any closer to their victory condition (actually quite the opposite).
Additionally, the lynch of teamlyle allows us to shrink our lynchpool in any case. Either we hit scum or we get the restless spirit, both those scenarios are beneficial for town.
We might not have as good reads as usual D2 but we are in no scenario as close to the scum victory condition as usually.

Maybe I'm not thinking of all the scenarios clearly enough then, but I just don't agree. Couldn't we just lynch him later if it becomes better to remove him because of the numbers or whatever?

[Calamitas]

Well, generally speaking, the lynch of a restless spirit is almost a free one in terms of costs in regard to the endgame. Therefore, in contrast to any other D1 misslynch, that one wouldn't bring scum any closer to their victory condition (actually quite the opposite).
Additionally, the lynch of teamlyle allows us to shrink our lynchpool in any case. Either we hit scum or we get the restless spirit, both those scenarios are beneficial for town.
We might not have as good reads as usual D2 but we are in no scenario as close to the scum victory condition as usually.

But lynching an IC is never a good idea.

What?

[Calamitas]

Well, generally speaking, the lynch of a restless spirit is almost a free one in terms of costs in regard to the endgame. Therefore, in contrast to any other D1 misslynch, that one wouldn't bring scum any closer to their victory condition (actually quite the opposite).
Additionally, the lynch of teamlyle allows us to shrink our lynchpool in any case. Either we hit scum or we get the restless spirit, both those scenarios are beneficial for town.
We might not have as good reads as usual D2 but we are in no scenario as close to the scum victory condition as usually.

Maybe I'm not thinking of all the scenarios clearly enough then, but I just don't agree. Couldn't we just lynch him later if it becomes better to remove him because of the numbers or whatever?

Our shot at hitting mafia increases with every passing day faster than linear. Therefore, it is best to use the lynch on the known target as soon as possible since it allows us to use the lynches with a smaller lynchpool better.
And, all things considered, teamlyle is not even close to be an IC. So I'm pretty sure we want to lynch him at some point anyways (since the drawback of lynching town!teamlyle is really small) and doing that right know is just strictly better than doing it later.

[Eevee]

I think you are not taking into account the snowballing effect of information - it's a very different looking game if people get away with lynching someone who they don't necessarily think is the scummiest for a reason like this.

[Robz888]

I do see what Calamitas is saying, but I've really come around to thinking teamlyle's claim makes most sense as over-eager, inexperienced townie. Not 100%, not even close, and yes it's better to mislynch him than other people. And also I guess early claiming Restless Spirit as faux over-eager townie is a pretty great scum defense. Shoot, now I'm talking myself out of this a little bit. It's a tough call I guess, but I think I still want to look elsewhere.

What's the case on silverspawn, Eevee? He's scummily pushing teamlyle? Why?

[Calamitas]

I think you are not taking into account the snowballing effect of information - it's a very different looking game if people get away with lynching someone who they don't necessarily think is the scummiest for a reason like this.

But if we are going to lynch him at some point of the game anyways that doesn't matter I think. One lynch is going to be taken up by teamlyle and it's best if thar's the day with the least info to work with.

[Robz888]

And how about Vote: WitherWeaver for totally disappearing after Jokegate and contributing zero substance to this game. That's fair, yes?

[Robz888]

I think you are not taking into account the snowballing effect of information - it's a very different looking game if people get away with lynching someone who they don't necessarily think is the scummiest for a reason like this.

But if we are going to lynch him at some point of the game anyways that doesn't matter I think. One lynch is going to be taken up by teamlyle and it's best if thar's the day with the least info to work with.

You know, I always tell Vigs not to shoot, but if we do have a Vig (a major if, of course), shooting teamlyle seems like a not-terrible plan.

[Eevee]

I'll try to reread silver tomorrow and see what comes up. Right now it's basically just he fits the mold of a person not trying to draw attention to themselves  but still being present enough not to get the lurker suspicion (I guess he seems measured, or something?), and having a scummy position on this teamlyle wagon.

[Calamitas]

Let's consider two scenarios, one with a restless spirit, one without one:

Without restless spirit:

- D1: 12 Players, 3 Scum, 0 Spirit -> Misslynch+NK
- D2: 10 Players, 3 Scum, 0 Spirit -> Misslynch+NK
- D3: 08 Players, 3 Scum, 0 Spirit ==> MyLo

With restless spirit

- D1: 12 Players, 3 Scum, 0 Spirit   -> Spirit-lynch+NK
- D2: 10 Players, 3 Scum, 1 Spirit   -> Misslynch+NK
- D3: 08 Players, 3 Scum, 1 Spirit   -> Misslynch+NK
- D4: 06 Players, 3 Scum, 1 Spirit  ==> LyLo

Obviously, the odds in the second scenario are vastly better than the odds in the first scenario. And, considering that the possibility of lynching scum instead of the spirit is definitely not negligible, lynching teamlyle is clearly the best option for us here.

[SpaceAnemone]

As silver and I previously pointed out, a dead Restless-Spirit is actually an asset, not a drawback (in comparison to a live player) in terms of endgame chances.

This is true if the game reaches the specific configurations you outlined. You're both entirely failing to take into consideration how the act of deliberately lynching non-town affects the probability of reaching that sort of a state in the first place.

Also, do you two agree that lynching scum would be better if we can achive that D1?

[Calamitas]

In addition, a comparision between lynching the spirit immediately and along the way:


With restless spirit directly

- D1: 12 Players, 3 Scum, 0 Spirit   -> Spirit-lynch+NK
- D2: 10 Players, 3 Scum, 1 Spirit   -> Misslynch+NK
- D3: 08 Players, 3 Scum, 1 Spirit   -> Misslynch+NK
- D4: 06 Players, 3 Scum, 1 Spirit  ==> LyLo

With restless spirit later

- D1: 12 Players, 3 Scum, 0 Spirit   -> Misslynch+NK
- D2: 10 Players, 3 Scum, 0 Spirit   -> Misslynch+NK
- D3: 08 Players, 3 Scum, 0 Spirit   -> Spirit-lynch+NK
- D4: 06 Players, 3 Scum, 1 Spirit  ==> LyLo

On the first glance, those two scenarios look quite similar. Though one has to look at the odds of correct lynches to see the decisive difference.

- D1: 3/12 = 25%
- D2: 3/10 = 30%
- D3: 3/08 = 37.5%

When lynching the restless spirit D1, town sacrifices a 25% chance of hitting scum that day. When lynching later, those chances (and thereby the sacrifice) increases massively.
Therefore an early lynch of the restless spirit is preferable to a later lynch of the restless spirit.

[schadd]

Vote Count 1.4


Eevee (2): mcmcsalot,  Witherweaver
teamlyle (3): Calamitas, silverspawn, LaLight
silverspawn (3): SpaceAnemone, teamlyle, Eevee
Calamitas (2): gkrieg13, J Reggie
Witherweaver (1): Robz888


Not voting (1): pacovf


With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch. Day 1 starts now and ends December 18 at 4 am forum time.

[Eevee]

As silver and I previously pointed out, a dead Restless-Spirit is actually an asset, not a drawback (in comparison to a live player) in terms of endgame chances.

This is true if the game reaches the specific configurations you outlined. You're both entirely failing to take into consideration how the act of deliberately lynching non-town affects the probability of reaching that sort of a state in the first place.

Also, do you two agree that lynching scum would be better if we can achive that D1?

This is what I've been trying to say as well.

[Robz888]

This is exactly what Calamitas did (as town) on Day 1 in Mafia 89: over-reliance on numbers and math and probabilities to tell us what to do.

[Calamitas]

This is exactly what Calamitas did (as town) on Day 1 in Mafia 89: over-reliance on numbers and math and probabilities to tell us what to do.

You're better than this robz.

[Eevee]

This is exactly what Calamitas did (as town) on Day 1 in Mafia 89: over-reliance on numbers and math and probabilities to tell us what to do.

You're better than this robz.

Easily giving calamitas enough credit to be able to fake that as scum, but that's a towny comment about Robz.

[pacovf]

I haven't really checked the odds (even though I LOVE calculating odds) because I don't think they are relevant in this scenario. Lynching scum is better than lynching town, period. Failing that, getting information is the best we can do. Lynching town in a way that makes people unaccountable for their vote (because setup/numbers) does not do that.

So we should stop discussing the advantages of lynching a Restless Spirit, because it's detracting from actual scumhunting, and lynch someone else. From the people that currently have a vote on them, my preferred choice is vote: silverspawn, because he is playing the way I would expect him to play as scum: being present without committing himself too much, and voting for people for relatively easy reasons.

I could do Lalight or SA too, I think.

[Robz888]

This is exactly what Calamitas did (as town) on Day 1 in Mafia 89: over-reliance on numbers and math and probabilities to tell us what to do.

You're better than this robz.

Better than what?

[pacovf]

Also, for the record, I disagree that we will have to lynch teamlyle.

[silverspawn]

As silver and I previously pointed out, a dead Restless-Spirit is actually an asset, not a drawback (in comparison to a live player) in terms of endgame chances.

This is true if the game reaches the specific configurations you outlined. You're both entirely failing to take into consideration how the act of deliberately lynching non-town affects the probability of reaching that sort of a state in the first place.

Yes, yes.

Because that aspect is overrated. Reads are expected to be weak and only required to be weak in order for town to win. Note that this chart is without PRs!

Whenever anyone proposes lynching someone for reasons other than thinking they're scum, someone always argues that this is scummy, that we should just lynch the scummiest person, and almost always a wagon forms on the people pushing this idea. It's about the least safe thing to do in this situation. It is much safer to be the one arguing that we should go by scumminess instead, those never get heat.

The problem that I do have with this lynch is that I found his recent comments to be pretty indicative of town. I'd now say he's the least likely scum candidate out of any of you.

Also, do you two agree that lynching scum would be better if we can achive that D1?

Yes. But not much.

[pacovf]

Also, do you two agree that lynching scum would be better if we can achive that D1?

Yes. But not much.

Lynching scum D1 is huge! I don't see why you think that.

[silverspawn]

because lynching scum day 2 is also huge, just slightly less so. remember we're comparing only the time of the scum lynch, so we're talking scum lynch -> town lynch vs town lynch -> scum lynch. Sure the first's better but it's not a big difference.

[Robz888]

Lynching scum Day 1 is much huger than lynching scum Day 2. The statistic would bear this out.

[pacovf]

remember we're comparing only the time of the scum lynch, so we're talking scum lynch -> town lynch vs town lynch -> scum lynch.

...why are we only comparing those two? Why should scum lynch lead into town lynch? Surely the information from lynching scum D1 would lead to better odds of lynching scum D2?