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Author Topic: M90: Literature Mafia (Scum wins!)  (Read 154901 times)

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silverspawn

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Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #450 on: December 16, 2016, 01:18:50 pm »

2scum + 2town would be a totally different scenario.
Yes. That would be a 100% scum win.

You just made an argument for why the restless spirit is potentially better than a town player. I only said that, in cases where the vote is tied, adding a restless spirit gives town the majority, therefore the spirit is as valuable as a town player. This is still 100% true. You described a scenario where scum has the majority, in which town would need two more players to tip it in their favor, and described how just one restless spirit could be enough.

Which is a fair point that I hadn't seen. So the restless spirit is actually worth more than a town player for preserving the lynch majority. Another reason to lynch teamlyle.

Robz888

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Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #451 on: December 16, 2016, 01:19:48 pm »

I will say that Calamitas has thought way harder about the implications of end-of-game Restless Spiriting than I have. I'm led to believe this is just who he is--Calamitas likes powers and setups and thinking about this kind of stuff, yes?

When we were scum together in M 88, he was the absolutely master of this stuff, so I've definitely seen it from him as scum. Maybe it's not alignment indicative?
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I have been forced to accept that lackluster play is a town tell for you.

silverspawn

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Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #452 on: December 16, 2016, 01:20:47 pm »

I will say that Calamitas has thought way harder about the implications of end-of-game Restless Spiriting than I have. I'm led to believe this is just who he is--Calamitas likes powers and setups and thinking about this kind of stuff, yes?
yes.

Quote
Maybe it's not alignment indicative?
Probably not.

teamlyle

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Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #453 on: December 16, 2016, 02:51:13 pm »

Another reason to lynch teamlyle.

I'll probably be negative utility to town after I die if I just keep getting lynched without being given a chance to learn. I'll still really have no idea what to do or who to side with once I'm dead. Now I'm going to ask again, how do I read people well?
Logged
"In your face." -Jacob
"Ooh. You just got burned." -Jack
"First place again, disciple!" -Ruikai
"Ugh... 399 cursors. Time to hack!" -Ben
"You gotta do your homework, dude!" -Yul
"Come on man, let the plat play." -The Plat
"It's nice to have a good 'in your face' every once in a while." -Jacob
"OBJECTION!!! The witness is being SUPER gross." -Phoenix Wright
"Milord, Inquisitor Fey sentences that burger to my stomach!" -Maya Fey
"Dude, I only had 4 cups of coffee this morning so I'm gonna crash." -Swi
"Okay, okay. My team name is: Team Lyle: the Advancing Armadillo." -Lyle
"I’m sorry Cedric, we just have to do what we have to do to get me to be a op." -Paul
"Well, I prefer loyal people. I don’t want anyone to be a La-Ya except for me." -La-Ya
"I don't play Monkey vs. Monkey. I'm too busy in pacifist mode, watching my buildings survive and thrive!" -Joshua
Lyle's mom: Are you guys going to play regular Dominion, or are you going to play cheat?
Lyle: Of course we're playing Cheat Dominion!

teamlyle

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Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #454 on: December 16, 2016, 02:51:42 pm »

Vote: silverspawn
Logged
"In your face." -Jacob
"Ooh. You just got burned." -Jack
"First place again, disciple!" -Ruikai
"Ugh... 399 cursors. Time to hack!" -Ben
"You gotta do your homework, dude!" -Yul
"Come on man, let the plat play." -The Plat
"It's nice to have a good 'in your face' every once in a while." -Jacob
"OBJECTION!!! The witness is being SUPER gross." -Phoenix Wright
"Milord, Inquisitor Fey sentences that burger to my stomach!" -Maya Fey
"Dude, I only had 4 cups of coffee this morning so I'm gonna crash." -Swi
"Okay, okay. My team name is: Team Lyle: the Advancing Armadillo." -Lyle
"I’m sorry Cedric, we just have to do what we have to do to get me to be a op." -Paul
"Well, I prefer loyal people. I don’t want anyone to be a La-Ya except for me." -La-Ya
"I don't play Monkey vs. Monkey. I'm too busy in pacifist mode, watching my buildings survive and thrive!" -Joshua
Lyle's mom: Are you guys going to play regular Dominion, or are you going to play cheat?
Lyle: Of course we're playing Cheat Dominion!

silverspawn

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Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #455 on: December 16, 2016, 03:01:46 pm »

you side with town because you are town. You win mafia if your faction wins, not if you survive.

teamlyle

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Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #456 on: December 16, 2016, 03:06:17 pm »

Yeah, so I can help my faction by reading people, right?

Now I'm going to ask again, how do I read people well?

You're trying to speed up my lynch so I'll be negative utility to town once I do get lynched. Hence the reason I'm voting for you.
Logged
"In your face." -Jacob
"Ooh. You just got burned." -Jack
"First place again, disciple!" -Ruikai
"Ugh... 399 cursors. Time to hack!" -Ben
"You gotta do your homework, dude!" -Yul
"Come on man, let the plat play." -The Plat
"It's nice to have a good 'in your face' every once in a while." -Jacob
"OBJECTION!!! The witness is being SUPER gross." -Phoenix Wright
"Milord, Inquisitor Fey sentences that burger to my stomach!" -Maya Fey
"Dude, I only had 4 cups of coffee this morning so I'm gonna crash." -Swi
"Okay, okay. My team name is: Team Lyle: the Advancing Armadillo." -Lyle
"I’m sorry Cedric, we just have to do what we have to do to get me to be a op." -Paul
"Well, I prefer loyal people. I don’t want anyone to be a La-Ya except for me." -La-Ya
"I don't play Monkey vs. Monkey. I'm too busy in pacifist mode, watching my buildings survive and thrive!" -Joshua
Lyle's mom: Are you guys going to play regular Dominion, or are you going to play cheat?
Lyle: Of course we're playing Cheat Dominion!

Calamitas

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Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #457 on: December 16, 2016, 03:12:17 pm »

Why should you ever be negative utility to town? This just doesn't make sense.
Logged
Oh, i just don't like mafia games.

Town (5/9): M85, RMM35, M87, NM9, M90RMM38, M92, M91, M102,
Scum (3/3): M84, M88, M100

MVPs (1): M84

teamlyle

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Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #458 on: December 16, 2016, 03:36:32 pm »

If I vote against town players then I'm negative utility to town. Isn't that how it works?

If you think that I can't ever be negative utility to town, I guess you forgot that you were voting me... You're probably scum trying to defend me and then look good when I turn up town.

Scum team: WW/Calamitas/silver

Logged
"In your face." -Jacob
"Ooh. You just got burned." -Jack
"First place again, disciple!" -Ruikai
"Ugh... 399 cursors. Time to hack!" -Ben
"You gotta do your homework, dude!" -Yul
"Come on man, let the plat play." -The Plat
"It's nice to have a good 'in your face' every once in a while." -Jacob
"OBJECTION!!! The witness is being SUPER gross." -Phoenix Wright
"Milord, Inquisitor Fey sentences that burger to my stomach!" -Maya Fey
"Dude, I only had 4 cups of coffee this morning so I'm gonna crash." -Swi
"Okay, okay. My team name is: Team Lyle: the Advancing Armadillo." -Lyle
"I’m sorry Cedric, we just have to do what we have to do to get me to be a op." -Paul
"Well, I prefer loyal people. I don’t want anyone to be a La-Ya except for me." -La-Ya
"I don't play Monkey vs. Monkey. I'm too busy in pacifist mode, watching my buildings survive and thrive!" -Joshua
Lyle's mom: Are you guys going to play regular Dominion, or are you going to play cheat?
Lyle: Of course we're playing Cheat Dominion!

silverspawn

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Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #459 on: December 16, 2016, 03:42:35 pm »

how do I read people well?

If I vote against town players

Scum team: WW/Calamitas/silver

...

Calamitas

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Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #460 on: December 16, 2016, 03:46:43 pm »

If I vote against town players then I'm negative utility to town. Isn't that how it works?

If you think that I can't ever be negative utility to town, I guess you forgot that you were voting me... You're probably scum trying to defend me and then look good when I turn up town.

Scum team: WW/Calamitas/silver
If you actually expect to be negative utility you just don't vote?!
Logged
Oh, i just don't like mafia games.

Town (5/9): M85, RMM35, M87, NM9, M90RMM38, M92, M91, M102,
Scum (3/3): M84, M88, M100

MVPs (1): M84

teamlyle

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Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #461 on: December 16, 2016, 03:47:41 pm »

Logged
"In your face." -Jacob
"Ooh. You just got burned." -Jack
"First place again, disciple!" -Ruikai
"Ugh... 399 cursors. Time to hack!" -Ben
"You gotta do your homework, dude!" -Yul
"Come on man, let the plat play." -The Plat
"It's nice to have a good 'in your face' every once in a while." -Jacob
"OBJECTION!!! The witness is being SUPER gross." -Phoenix Wright
"Milord, Inquisitor Fey sentences that burger to my stomach!" -Maya Fey
"Dude, I only had 4 cups of coffee this morning so I'm gonna crash." -Swi
"Okay, okay. My team name is: Team Lyle: the Advancing Armadillo." -Lyle
"I’m sorry Cedric, we just have to do what we have to do to get me to be a op." -Paul
"Well, I prefer loyal people. I don’t want anyone to be a La-Ya except for me." -La-Ya
"I don't play Monkey vs. Monkey. I'm too busy in pacifist mode, watching my buildings survive and thrive!" -Joshua
Lyle's mom: Are you guys going to play regular Dominion, or are you going to play cheat?
Lyle: Of course we're playing Cheat Dominion!

mcmcsalot

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Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #462 on: December 16, 2016, 04:51:48 pm »

Wow I thought I missed a lot but it turns out it was just 3 pages of people arguing if we could or could not create a code...

I do think the claim was done far to early and I think teamlyle has acted very scummy since then. His im bad a reading people and therefor lynching me is bad is a bad defense.

Does anyone know what teamlyle is at?
Logged
Wins: M19, M21, M23, M24, M26, M39, M91, M94, M102, M104, M107, M114, M115
Losses: M20, M22, M25, M27, M30, M31, M35, M38, M40, M42, M46, M60, M90, M93, M96, M98, M100, M101, M106, M111, M113
Winrate: 38.2%(13/34) 29.6%(8/27), 71.4%(5/7)

mcmcsalot

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Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #463 on: December 16, 2016, 05:04:10 pm »

Vote Count 1.2
mcmcsalot (5): SpaceAnemone, Eevee, teamlyle, silverspawn, pacovf
Eevee (4): mcmcsalot, gkrieg13, LaLight, Witherweaver
Robz888 (1): J Reggie
J Reggie (1): Robz888

Not Voting (1): Calamitas

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch. Day 1 starts now and ends December 18 at 4 am forum time.

Here's some mid-day wagon analysis. Pretty weak but I was inspired by teamlyles proposed scum team of ww/cal/silver. A reasonable scum team finding there places trying to not all pile onto one wagon plus my scum and town reads gives me a probably scum team of:

Eevee, I have already made my case for why I think he's scummy(still a d1 case)
Teamlyle, Mainly based of his reactions to pressure and claim
WW/jreggie/cal, my guess is one of these is the third based on wagon positions and I have slight scum reads on them as opposed to slight town or null on robz/gkreig/lala
Logged
Wins: M19, M21, M23, M24, M26, M39, M91, M94, M102, M104, M107, M114, M115
Losses: M20, M22, M25, M27, M30, M31, M35, M38, M40, M42, M46, M60, M90, M93, M96, M98, M100, M101, M106, M111, M113
Winrate: 38.2%(13/34) 29.6%(8/27), 71.4%(5/7)

mcmcsalot

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Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #464 on: December 16, 2016, 05:16:28 pm »

Now to play devils advocate because a lot of people voted teamlyle but the posts weby so fast I want to put them side by side.

So paco gives analysis and finds teamlyle scummy.

Good effort, pac. I can sheep the Teamlyl vote. He's not giving us much. Vote: teamlyl
Robz sheep

After two votes teamlyle claims prompting Lala to vote
actually, creating the IC who can'e be killed at night is much more profitable than people think. Vote: Teamlyle
Voting based on sheeping suspicion and if teamlyle is town he's still helpful.

Three more quotes to come I feel like two posts will take up less space.
Logged
Wins: M19, M21, M23, M24, M26, M39, M91, M94, M102, M104, M107, M114, M115
Losses: M20, M22, M25, M27, M30, M31, M35, M38, M40, M42, M46, M60, M90, M93, M96, M98, M100, M101, M106, M111, M113
Winrate: 38.2%(13/34) 29.6%(8/27), 71.4%(5/7)

mcmcsalot

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Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #465 on: December 16, 2016, 05:16:38 pm »

So next paco and robz both unvote, I assume based on the claim and need to reevaluate.

unvote for now.

Restless spirit or not, we should not lynch town. Like, duh. And right now I think teamlyle's claim is evidence in favour of him being town. Still need to think about it a bit more though.


I am confused by silver's analysis of the role though, it should not affect when scum wins, I assume their win condition involves only living players, not total number of votes. Faust, can you confirm that?

Teamlyle, can you explain why you decided to claim with so little pressure on you? I will say that it seems premature claims tend to come from town. That's at least been my recent experience.

I suppose teamlyle could have known that if he has savvy partners. Certainly the RS claim, which pradoxically may make people want to lynch you more, is sort of a good claim for WIFOM. I.e., "If I was scum, why would I claim something that makes you want to kill me more?"

Then again, it's a cool, rare role... I could see being excited to claim it, just because it's cool. That could be the source of teamlyle's over eagerness.

Yeah, I guess I'm talking myself into believing it.

Back to Vote: J Reggie

Lastly we had Cals vote:
This also happened in ?tree mafia?  I think with RR.  I remember us asking him questions and having him answer them with votes, but it was so cumbersome, that we didn't really do it.

Also it is hard to stay interested in a game when all you can do is vote.

Also, I'm not sure it is all that much better to have teamlyle as a restless spirit.  I mean he isn't exactly the most experienced player.  Having a vet as a restless spirit seems pretty awesome, having a newbie that can only vote seems a little less awesome.
It isn't that awesome but certainly better than having someone totally dead. Either way, I'm pretty sure we are going to lynch him at some point anyways since the probability of scum killing him is really low.
vote: teamlyle
Logged
Wins: M19, M21, M23, M24, M26, M39, M91, M94, M102, M104, M107, M114, M115
Losses: M20, M22, M25, M27, M30, M31, M35, M38, M40, M42, M46, M60, M90, M93, M96, M98, M100, M101, M106, M111, M113
Winrate: 38.2%(13/34) 29.6%(8/27), 71.4%(5/7)

mcmcsalot

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Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #466 on: December 16, 2016, 05:26:10 pm »

All in this wagon was much less serious than I thought on first read. Other than paco's original analysis, not much else was said content wise. Which would make sense why teamlyle hasn't defended himself well however I maintain that claim was terrible to make at that point of pressure. The thread then being whipped into a flurry and the rest of pacos analysis being completely ignored is all pretty scummy though hard to tell who I'm directing those feelings at.

Perhaps the early claim was intentional because teamlyle didn't think he had any better defense so just shoot for the fences as soon as you get votes?
Logged
Wins: M19, M21, M23, M24, M26, M39, M91, M94, M102, M104, M107, M114, M115
Losses: M20, M22, M25, M27, M30, M31, M35, M38, M40, M42, M46, M60, M90, M93, M96, M98, M100, M101, M106, M111, M113
Winrate: 38.2%(13/34) 29.6%(8/27), 71.4%(5/7)

Eevee

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Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #467 on: December 16, 2016, 05:37:39 pm »

unvote for now.

Restless spirit or not, we should not lynch town. Like, duh. And right now I think teamlyle's claim is evidence in favour of him being town. Still need to think about it a bit more though.


I am confused by silver's analysis of the role though, it should not affect when scum wins, I assume their win condition involves only living players, not total number of votes. Faust, can you confirm that?
This. I'm suspicious of the people pushing for teamlyle. (phone gunching)
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Eevee

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Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #468 on: December 16, 2016, 05:40:26 pm »

Never ever is that crypto.

We have run previous games where such a code was considered to be illegal under the cryptography prohibition. We'll need faust's confirmation here either way.
Well, that is insane but okay. It is just as much crypto as saying "If you approve say yes". Or "If you actually think they are scummy vote them".
But yeah, nothing against asking for faust's approval.

I think what happened was one of the early games, Mafia 14 or some such, had a scum PR that turned people into chickens who could only say chicken, and so we set up some elaborate thing to make "chicken! chicken!" its own language so we could get around the restriction, and it was totally do-able but really annoying, so we decided never again with that.
Sounds actually fun :D
It was terrible.

Chicken.
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Eevee

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Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #469 on: December 16, 2016, 05:52:05 pm »

I think scum is hiding behind teamlyle's claim, and they have their explanation ready for tomorrow. "I know he wasn't that scummy, but we just had to do that because of the claim". I don't think we should lynch him unless we think he is scum.

 Calamitas, if he is never the most likely person to be scum at the end of the day, why do we have to lynch him ever? I think we have better shots!

To the people explaining "it could be a scum ploy created in advance".. sure! Anything is possible, but I think we should go for the most likely thing. What in teamlyle's play makes you guys think he is scum? I think the claim is more likely to come from town, how many times have we seen a newer player drawing an exciting role and being too eager to claim it? I posit that as scum, teamlyle would want to make sure to live as long as possible (because it's another cool role), I don't think he'd want to push himself to the forefront like this. Especially with a claim that makes makes the potential downside of lynching you smaller - you more likely to get lynched!

I'm really not seeing this.

Silverspawn being mafia and wanting to push this lynch because there is a built in excuse fits too, I like where my vote is at (more than I usually would day 1!).
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Calamitas

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Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #470 on: December 16, 2016, 05:57:31 pm »

unvote for now.

Restless spirit or not, we should not lynch town. Like, duh. And right now I think teamlyle's claim is evidence in favour of him being town. Still need to think about it a bit more though.


I am confused by silver's analysis of the role though, it should not affect when scum wins, I assume their win condition involves only living players, not total number of votes. Faust, can you confirm that?
This. I'm suspicious of the people pushing for teamlyle. (phone gunching)
But the probability of him being town is not high enough in comparison to the default probability (8/11) to justify not lynching him. As silver and I previously pointed out, a dead Restless-Spirit is actually an asset, not a drawback (in comparison to a live player) in terms of endgame chances.
Logged
Oh, i just don't like mafia games.

Town (5/9): M85, RMM35, M87, NM9, M90RMM38, M92, M91, M102,
Scum (3/3): M84, M88, M100

MVPs (1): M84

Eevee

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Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #471 on: December 16, 2016, 06:15:19 pm »

Okay, that's a different discussion: Where is the threshold of scumminess teamlyle needs to achieve to be a better lynch?

The thing is, I think he is less likely to be a mafia lynch for us than even a random lynch. Add to that, we lynch him thinking "nah, he's probably town but make sure", and scum has a perfect alibi - we get much decreased wagon analysis benefit, and we are starting day 2 basically from the scratch, save for possible PR interactions and mafia's night kill. I don't think it's just about numbers, we also lynch to figure out the puzzle that is people's alignments.

I think the same arguments that apply to the discussion "is random lynch better day 1 because it hits scum more often than what we normally do" apply here. It's not just about the numbers, it's about increasing our likelihood of getting better lynches in the future.
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pacovf

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Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #472 on: December 16, 2016, 06:20:12 pm »

The thing is, I think he is less likely to be a mafia lynch for us than even a random lynch. Add to that, we lynch him thinking "nah, he's probably town but make sure", and scum has a perfect alibi - we get much decreased wagon analysis benefit, and we are starting day 2 basically from the scratch, save for possible PR interactions and mafia's night kill.

This makes a lot of sense. I am not lynching teamlyle today, unless something comes up that convinces me that he is likely to be scum, despite the claim.
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pacovf has a neopets account.  It has 999 hours logged.  All his neopets are named "Jessica".  I guess that must be his ex.

Calamitas

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Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #473 on: December 16, 2016, 06:28:03 pm »

Well, generally speaking, the lynch of a restless spirit is almost a free one in terms of costs in regard to the endgame. Therefore, in contrast to any other D1 misslynch, that one wouldn't bring scum any closer to their victory condition (actually quite the opposite).
Additionally, the lynch of teamlyle allows us to shrink our lynchpool in any case. Either we hit scum or we get the restless spirit, both those scenarios are beneficial for town.
We might not have as good reads as usual D2 but we are in no scenario as close to the scum victory condition as usually.
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Oh, i just don't like mafia games.

Town (5/9): M85, RMM35, M87, NM9, M90RMM38, M92, M91, M102,
Scum (3/3): M84, M88, M100

MVPs (1): M84

gkrieg13

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Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #474 on: December 16, 2016, 06:30:07 pm »

Well, generally speaking, the lynch of a restless spirit is almost a free one in terms of costs in regard to the endgame. Therefore, in contrast to any other D1 misslynch, that one wouldn't bring scum any closer to their victory condition (actually quite the opposite).
Additionally, the lynch of teamlyle allows us to shrink our lynchpool in any case. Either we hit scum or we get the restless spirit, both those scenarios are beneficial for town.
We might not have as good reads as usual D2 but we are in no scenario as close to the scum victory condition as usually.

But lynching an IC is never a good idea.
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