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Author Topic: Is it important to risk to buy the penultimate province/colony?  (Read 1336 times)

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love

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Is it important to risk to buy the penultimate province/colony?
« on: November 07, 2016, 04:30:10 am »
0

There is a strategy article about the penultimate province and I have to admit that I read it long time ago and I dont remember it very well^^
I just remember that I should not buy the penultimate province when my opponent can win by buying the last province.
Are there exceptions?

kingdom:


Code: [Select]
Chapel, Develop, Guide, Oasis, Watchtower, Woodcutter, Quarry, Spy, Giant, Fairgrounds
game log:
http://gokosalvager.com/static/logprettifier.html?http://dominion-game-logs.s3.amazonaws.com/game_logs/20161102/log.0.1478088478434.txt

go to turn 18 he has 4 colonies, I have 2.
Is it possible to get an edge in this situation if you look at the log?
For example in another game, there were only 2 provinces left and I looked in the log and said to myself:
 "If 2 of his 3 Gold are in the discard pile and he does not trigger a shuffle, then I risk to buy the penultimate province"
It worked. with my rule I bought a duchy on two consecutive turns and on the two following turns I bought a province each.

My question is: If you get in this situation (like in the linked log) is it over or should I have a closer look on my opponents deck and discard pile?

Davio

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Re: Is it important to risk to buy the penultimate province/colony?
« Reply #1 on: November 07, 2016, 08:03:10 am »
+2

The Penultimate Province/Colony Rule (PPR) is not a rule, merely a guideline.

You have to estimate your chances of buying 2 Provinces before your opponent can buy 1. If you're 0-6 points behind, and you and your opponent both buy a Province, you will tie or lose. If you're more than 6 points behind, you basically need the last 2 Provinces anyway, so you might as well gamble. If it goes P for you, Duchy for your opponent, P for you, you've made up 9 points.

Tracking your opponent's deck helps as does attacking him on your turn (mostly discarding).
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McGarnacle

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Re: Is it important to risk to buy the penultimate province/colony?
« Reply #2 on: November 07, 2016, 08:28:34 am »
+1

Another point to make is if he isn't keeping good track or you have no log (IRL) to consult, seeing you obviously break PPR might make him think twice about ending it himself.
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ipofanes

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Re: Is it important to risk to buy the penultimate province/colony?
« Reply #3 on: November 07, 2016, 08:33:59 am »
+1

game log:
http://gokosalvager.com/static/logprettifier.html?http://dominion-game-logs.s3.amazonaws.com/game_logs/20161102/log.0.1478088478434.txt

I am just noticing that an active Giant seems to irritate the log: No extra cards drawn are mentioned, but in return the player plays two Copper to buy a Silver, and later in the game, even a Gold. Known bug?
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DG

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Re: Is it important to risk to buy the penultimate province/colony?
« Reply #4 on: November 07, 2016, 08:45:27 am »
+1

On another note, you could use your chapel to trash coppers more aggressively.
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Deadlock39

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Re: Is it important to risk to buy the penultimate province/colony?
« Reply #5 on: November 07, 2016, 10:11:54 am »
+1

Remember that PPR only applies if you can take a lead by buying a different VP card. If you are down by more than 3 (possibly more with alt VP), the general rule does not apply. In that case your need both Provinces, or you opponent has to miss Duchy. Barring specific deck tracking instances, you just need to take the Province in that case
« Last Edit: November 07, 2016, 07:57:19 pm by Deadlock39 »
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Dingan

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Re: Is it important to risk to buy the penultimate province/colony?
« Reply #6 on: November 07, 2016, 02:54:51 pm »
+1

Yes there are times when you want to buy the second-to-last province when you're down by 7 to 12 VP:
- You are confident that your opponent will not be able to buy the last Province
- Your opponenet will probably buy the last Province, but you have absolutely no other way of winning, and you're basically just hoping your opponent totally duds
- You're bored and just want the game to end
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drsteelhammer

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Re: Is it important to risk to buy the penultimate province/colony?
« Reply #7 on: November 07, 2016, 07:04:56 pm »
+1

Yes there are times when you want to buy the second-to-last province when you're down by 7 to 12 VP:
- You are confident that your opponent will not be able to buy the last Province
- Your opponenet will probably buy the last Province, but you have absolutely no other way of winning, and you're basically just hoping your opponent totally duds
- You're bored and just want the game to end

I think these guidelines are correct for being 3-6VP down. If you're 7-12VP down and you don't have an engine that can quad Duchy or something like that, it's almost always right to buy the Province
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