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[Ghacob]

Meanwhile, I want a binary is/is not troublemaker from (I think the only unclaimed people) chairs and Calamitas, followed probably by asking for claims from them.

Scratch that. Or rather, first:
tripwire, who'd you steal from then?

[tripwire]

Sorry, I don't feel comfortable laying all my cards on the table until I know if there's a troublemaker and who they switched.

And I will be honest: you're right, soft claims are less "towny," but in One Night, when there's roles like the troublemaker out, there's no way you can know if you're still town. In my experience people play super truthful when they're town and then they realize that often causes them to lose (e.g. they'll be the one to determine the wolf without a doubt only to learn they were switched with them, and now they lose.)

[Calamitas]

Will wait with my claim.

[Calamitas]

By now, LaLight is our best shot. Due to the concept of "levels-and-levels", there is an unknown level LaLight plays at. Both possibilities are nearly as likely, so 50% on him being scum. If we find sth better, perfect, if not let's take him out.

[Roadrunner7671]

Tripwire is just waiting to make sure he doesn't get counterclaimed by the real troublemaker

[Ghacob]

Sorry, I don't feel comfortable laying all my cards on the table until I know if there's a troublemaker and who they switched.

And I will be honest: you're right, soft claims are less "towny," but in One Night, when there's roles like the troublemaker out, there's no way you can know if you're still town. In my experience people play super truthful when they're town and then they realize that often causes them to lose (e.g. they'll be the one to determine the wolf without a doubt only to learn they were switched with them, and now they lose.)

Although you're working in your own best interest, you're working against town's. I was already confident that you were scum, the question just remains on which flavor you are, which I hoped would put you one way or another would help us with. Less sure if this bullshit was intentional, currently of the opinion that it was, therefore tanner, but Cal...

I for one think I've heard enough from tripwire and am ready to move on.

Alright, let's hear claims from Cal and chairs. Cal, not even an is/is not troublemaker?
I still hold that you two should start with those before full claims, as it greatly helps in the final portion of the game, but I would rather hear claims earlier than later real life time-wise

[tripwire]

I for one think I've heard enough from tripwire and am ready to move on.

Works for me. After such unquestionable support for RR, I'm convinced you two really are a pair of wolves, and LaLight is tanner. I'll be voting Roadrunner when the time comes, then.

[chairs]

I'm not a troublemaker.

[Calamitas]

I'm the troublemaker.

[Roadrunner7671]

I'm the troublemaker.

Doot doot

[Ghacob]

Cal, who did you switch?
tripwire, before this is your last chance to claim and get any amount of towncred from it
After Cal, chairs should claim. role along with any relevant information

[Calamitas]

I didn't switch anyone because I missed the deadline :/

[AHoppy]

I'm inclined to believe in a roadrunner/Ghacob scum pair. I doubt scum!tripwire would pick robber as his fake claim after roadrunner claimed robber when he could have claimed insomniac

[tripwire]

I robbed Cal and saw he was troublemaker.

[Roadrunner7671]

I robbed Cal and saw he was troublemaker.

You're still claiming robber? You are clearly scum! And I can just hunter shoot you!

[Ghacob]

Two hours till deadline, so not enough time for proper discussion. I'd like to give a blanket suggestion for everyone to reread the day's discussion before voting, just so we can make informed decisions etc.

Basically going through that now,

RR, if scum (I find unlikely) is clearly the Tanner. As tripwire himself pointed out, the most likely scenario for claiming Robber and claiming a random person and role robbed is suicide**. Luckily, we don't have to worry about that too much as:
tripwire is clearly scum. The entire reason Robber claims are trustworthy are because they are made ahead of perfect knowledge. I don't know how I can say this better. I'm reminded of some idiotic situation in mafia where (let's put in the corresponding identities shall we?) Cal is at L-1, claims his PR, and then tripwire, on Cal's wagon, having just pushed for the lynch of two other people, claims "Ah yes, I'm the Cop and of course knew that Cal is in fact town"
I'm not really able to organize my thoughts better right now, but I really hope that that gobledegook was sufficient in communication of the thought words.

Directly following the idea that tripwire is scum, I can't see him as anything but the Tanner**. I'm giving him the benefit of the doubt (and now also LaL) that he's not incompetent enough to make clearly idiotic plays and claims as a werewolf**. Actually, for what it's worth: tripwire, how much have you played One Night?

Other things...

Objectively, Drunk is at least 2/3 chance town, what with two scum roles encapsulated in LaL and trip/RR

I believe, and am the least certain on of all of the above thoughts etc, that LaLight is a werewolf. Again, I'm giving him the benefit of the doubt that he wouldn't do the obvious "Gee wilikers I'm a Tanner, I should claim werewolf so people lynch me!"**. In my experience, a good and winning Tanner is one who actually acts as close to a Werewolf as possible, although perhaps with a fatal error. Including a (poor) false narrative, a (clearly idiotic, polarizing) fakeclaim, and a full commitment to the role until successfully voted to death for victory. This, to me, sounds much more like tripwire's play than LaL.
The implied scum narrative I'm giving LaL is, of course "I'm Werewolf, time to protect myself with WIFOM"


**WIFOM, as always, applies strongly in this game. I'm voicing my own opinions/reads, which I recognize have a chance of being radically incorrect just by nature of the game. These are my views/thoughts/opinions/conclusions off of what I best think describes the game, its state, and the players playing it.

[Ghacob]

Chairs claim would be nice, if only to help confirm all of everything going on a slight bit and reduce those probabily margins by a few percentage points.

Counterclaiming now would idiotic as:

• If town, he should have done so far earlier
• If werewolf, it would just make everything more polarizing/etc and put heat on him now ((See: Tanner!tripwire))

[tripwire]

Two hours till deadline, so not enough time for proper discussion. I'd like to give a blanket suggestion for everyone to reread the day's discussion before voting, just so we can make informed decisions etc.

Basically going through that now,

RR, if scum (I find unlikely) is clearly the Tanner. As tripwire himself pointed out, the most likely scenario for claiming Robber and claiming a random person and role robbed is suicide**. Luckily, we don't have to worry about that too much as:
tripwire is clearly scum. The entire reason Robber claims are trustworthy are because they are made ahead of perfect knowledge. I don't know how I can say this better. I'm reminded of some idiotic situation in mafia where (let's put in the corresponding identities shall we?) Cal is at L-1, claims his PR, and then tripwire, on Cal's wagon, having just pushed for the lynch of two other people, claims "Ah yes, I'm the Cop and of course knew that Cal is in fact town"
I'm not really able to organize my thoughts better right now, but I really hope that that gobledegook was sufficient in communication of the thought words.

Directly following the idea that tripwire is scum, I can't see him as anything but the Tanner**. I'm giving him the benefit of the doubt (and now also LaL) that he's not incompetent enough to make clearly idiotic plays and claims as a werewolf**. Actually, for what it's worth: tripwire, how much have you played One Night?

Other things...

Objectively, Drunk is at least 2/3 chance town, what with two scum roles encapsulated in LaL and trip/RR

I believe, and am the least certain on of all of the above thoughts etc, that LaLight is a werewolf. Again, I'm giving him the benefit of the doubt that he wouldn't do the obvious "Gee wilikers I'm a Tanner, I should claim werewolf so people lynch me!"**. In my experience, a good and winning Tanner is one who actually acts as close to a Werewolf as possible, although perhaps with a fatal error. Including a (poor) false narrative, a (clearly idiotic, polarizing) fakeclaim, and a full commitment to the role until successfully voted to death for victory. This, to me, sounds much more like tripwire's play than LaL.
The implied scum narrative I'm giving LaL is, of course "I'm Werewolf, time to protect myself with WIFOM"


**WIFOM, as always, applies strongly in this game. I'm voicing my own opinions/reads, which I recognize have a chance of being radically incorrect just by nature of the game. These are my views/thoughts/opinions/conclusions off of what I best think describes the game, its state, and the players playing it.

Well, I hope others consider how this explanation also plays out if both RR and Ghacob are wolves. I think that's all I can say beyond repeating: "I was the robber; RR is lying."

[Ghacob]

Currently in summary:

1. LaLight: scum by own admission. (>)=50% chance werewolf
2. Roadrunner7671: town almost by necessity, (or if you want math put me down for RR being < [less than for idiocy of claim factor, the fact that if he is scum and wanted to do exactly what he did would require]((8/9)*(7/8)*(6/7)[correctly guessing that there's a Hunter in the town] * 1/5[correctly guessing that I'm the Hunter])) = (less than 2/15 werewolf). If he wanted to pull off this idiocy anyway, almost certainly had to have been a Tanner banking on that 13/15 chance to get caught in a lie. Still not a good plan (see Tanner!tripwire analysis)
3. Calamitas: town by good analysis
4. Ahoppy: uncertain, just following claim + WIFOM, ~1/3 scum; not worth pursuing
6. chairs: ~1/4 scum. Clearly doesn't math out along with Drunk!Ahoppy, but having a role in the set of {Mason, Mason, Insomniac, Werewolf} isn't bad at all. Note that although an insomniac claim could be considered putting chairs to "1/2 scum", note that setup uncertainty + WIFOM + honesty factor, puts me much in the boat of
7. tripwire: scum by actions, claims. Specifically Tanner by (especially timing of) claims etc.


Copy and pasting the short diatribe/Tanner play analysis from two PPE: three posts ago for clarity:

I believe, and am the least certain on of all of the above thoughts etc, that LaLight is a werewolf. Again, I'm giving him the benefit of the doubt that he wouldn't do the obvious "Gee wilikers I'm a Tanner, I should claim werewolf so people lynch me!"**. In my experience, a good and winning Tanner is one who actually acts as close to a Werewolf as possible, although perhaps with a fatal error. Including a (poor) false narrative, a (clearly idiotic, polarizing) fakeclaim, and a full commitment to the role until successfully voted to death for victory. This, to me, sounds much more like tripwire's play than LaL.

1 PPE: will respond in next post

[Ghacob]

Just occurred to me how this specific fakeclaim on the part of tripwire is a pretty good one for Tanner as it's "guaranteed" to get two votes from town.

Similarly giving you, tripwire, a final "Voting for RR is against town"

[Calamitas]

Agreeing with Ghacob, LaLight is our best option.

[LaLight]

Hm, alright. It's hard to be me. I'll try to make better next time though.

[tripwire]

Similarly giving you, tripwire, a final "Voting for RR is against town"

This really is a great move to protect your wolf buddy. If people are concerned with voting for RR, I can get on board for Ghacob.

I definitely feel like lynching LaLight is a loss for everybody but him.

[tripwire]

Just in case people don't realize: It doesn't matter if you're wolf or village, if you kill the tanner, you lose

[Calamitas]

LaLight is not town, this is almost certain. It doesn't make sense from a scum perspective to push a lynch of LaLight since a lynch of anti-town is losing the game for scum. Therefore town or Ghacob. Lets lynch LaLight, its the best we have