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Author Topic: Familiar Vs Goons - What did I do wrong?  (Read 1506 times)

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Jacob marley

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Familiar Vs Goons - What did I do wrong?
« on: September 19, 2016, 12:12:14 pm »
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Pilgrimage, Familiar, Bridge, Ironworks, Scavenger, Artificer, Merchant Guild, Mystic, Wharf, Goons, Peddler
Log:  http://gokosalvager.com/static/logprettifier.html?http://dominion-game-logs.s3.amazonaws.com/game_logs/20160919/log.0.1474260588202.txt

We both open Potion/Silver, but on turn 3 he gets 6 for a Goons while I pick up a Familiar.  Wharf might have been a mistake, I don't know, but with his early Goons attack, then still splitting curses with me, I never hit 6 for a goons of my own, and stalled out completely.  So what would have helped me?  Mystic instead of Wharf on the first 5?
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Chris is me

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Re: Familiar Vs Goons - What did I do wrong?
« Reply #1 on: September 19, 2016, 12:18:51 pm »
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Why did you get even one Ironworks, let alone two? All those gainers, the Bridges they gained which are totally useless here, etc. were your downfall I think. I know you wanted Peddlers, but stick to Goons and maybe Wharf as your Plus Buy.
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Re: Familiar Vs Goons - What did I do wrong?
« Reply #2 on: September 19, 2016, 12:23:33 pm »
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Why did you get even one Ironworks, let alone two? All those gainers, the Bridges they gained which are totally useless here, etc. were your downfall I think. I know you wanted Peddlers, but stick to Goons and maybe Wharf as your Plus Buy.
You can't even get peddlers with ironworks(edge case not in kingdom)
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Accatitippi

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Re: Familiar Vs Goons - What did I do wrong?
« Reply #3 on: September 19, 2016, 12:28:28 pm »
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Why did you get even one Ironworks, let alone two? All those gainers, the Bridges they gained which are totally useless here, etc. were your downfall I think. I know you wanted Peddlers, but stick to Goons and maybe Wharf as your Plus Buy.
You can't even get peddlers with ironworks(edge case not in kingdom)

I guess the rationale was that Ironworks help make Peddlers cheap. (so do Mystic, Artificer and Familiar, but they are all more expensive than Ironworks).
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Chris is me

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Re: Familiar Vs Goons - What did I do wrong?
« Reply #4 on: September 19, 2016, 12:28:59 pm »
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Why did you get even one Ironworks, let alone two? All those gainers, the Bridges they gained which are totally useless here, etc. were your downfall I think. I know you wanted Peddlers, but stick to Goons and maybe Wharf as your Plus Buy.
You can't even get peddlers with ironworks(edge case not in kingdom)

I figured the Bridges were for Peddler I guess, maybe he gave up on Goons as +Buy and figured he could Ironworks and then Bridge and buy two Peddler for $3 each or something. Still, a bad idea here. No Village support kills any chance of Bridge providing value on this board.

Really when he fell behind he needed more than just one Silver to hit $6. If every component costs $5 and also you're being junked or discarded, there isn't much way around that.
« Last Edit: September 19, 2016, 12:30:32 pm by Chris is me »
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DG

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Re: Familiar Vs Goons - What did I do wrong?
« Reply #5 on: September 19, 2016, 01:36:58 pm »
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It has always been the case that a player has a fighting chance if they spike a gold but misses the familiar on turns 3 and 4. It's no surprise that goons has the same result.
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Jacob marley

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Re: Familiar Vs Goons - What did I do wrong?
« Reply #6 on: September 19, 2016, 02:20:12 pm »
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Actually, the Goons on turn 3 has a much greater impact than a Gold would have, since it kept me from ever getting 6, and made 5s hard to come by.  As for the Ironworks and bridge gains, it is probably correct to say they were by and large mistakes, but with so many four hands, I didn't know what else to do but Silver, which didn't seem that great.  Also, at one point I toyed with hoping I could grab a quick lead with a few Duchies and a quick 3 pile before I was hopelessly behind, but that didn't work out either.
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Chris is me

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Re: Familiar Vs Goons - What did I do wrong?
« Reply #7 on: September 19, 2016, 04:41:59 pm »
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I think popular discourse on this forum makes people too afraid of Silver, when sometimes you have to buy them.

Here, everything you want costs 5 or 6, you're getting junked, and you're having discard attacks every turn or two. It is impossible to hit $5 without two Silvers if you're being attacked, so it stands to reason that you needed two at the bare minimum. Probably more. It sucks that you have to pick them up but he did not, but that was pretty extraordinary luck on his part.

I don't really see how you could ever do a quick jump the gun three pile with only one terminal action a turn, that's really the biggest constraint here.
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Re: Familiar Vs Goons - What did I do wrong?
« Reply #8 on: September 19, 2016, 04:46:15 pm »
+1

Silver is the best card here costing 4 or less besides your starting potion and possibly estates at the end. Ironworks is complete garbage here.
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Witherweaver

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Re: Familiar Vs Goons - What did I do wrong?
« Reply #9 on: September 19, 2016, 04:48:02 pm »
+2

Silver is the best card here costing 4 or less besides your starting potion and possibly estates at the end. Ironworks is complete garbage here.

Psh, obvious nonsense.  Ironworks can gain all of those cards!
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Dingan

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Re: Familiar Vs Goons - What did I do wrong?
« Reply #10 on: September 19, 2016, 06:25:36 pm »
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I wonder if it's worth opening Scavenger/Silver here instead of Potion in hopes of spiking an early $6.  Although I still don't think it's very likely, it's just so so good if you do (as this game clearly shows).  Just wonder if the reward is worth the risk or whatever.
« Last Edit: September 19, 2016, 06:26:42 pm by Dingan »
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SettingFraming

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Re: Familiar Vs Goons - What did I do wrong?
« Reply #11 on: September 20, 2016, 11:05:21 am »
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When I do my scan of this board, there are a few things that jump out.

1. There are no villages.
2. There is no non-terminal draw.
3. There is no thinning, and there is junking

What all of this means, then, is that is basically going to be a big-money game. 1 and 2 alone is usually enough to ensure this, though sometimes with strong trashing and no junking the engine is still the right play.

You're going to want familiars pretty badly, as if junking is there you really need to do it in a game like this. I think Potion/Silver is the correct opening, even though I typically hate doing it. Hitting 6 on turn 3 is great, but it's not that great since they're not going to be able to play that goons consistently for a little while, and goons is really not that much better than a militia here. It's better, of course, but really not by much. Since you can't play multiple, it's just a militia that also gets you a few VP. The +Buy is almost a footnote, since you're not going to be hitting high numbers in this game.

Anyways, what would be my plan for this game?

Basically:
Open Potion/Silver, buy familiars while hitting 3P and you've got a good chance at playing the familiar before the curses run out. Other than that,
3: Silver
4: Silver
5: Mystic, or an Artificer if (A) the average $ value of your deck is above $1.3 or so, or (B) if it's early and the Mystic is going to possibly prevent you from getting your familiar plays in.
6: Goons, probably stop at 3, maybe even do things like pick up a 4th if one is going to miss the shuffle.

Other than that, follow the basic big money gameplay for things like provinces and duchies.

I don't think you're going to do much better than that in a game like this. Big money play requires discipline, you really need to stick to your plan and not do things like pick up an ironworks or a bridge to give yourself the best chance of winning.

Also, as a side-note, no one is talking about Wharf-BM here instead of Goons-BM. On this particular board I think Wharf-BM could absolutely be competitive--you're junked and not thinned so the Goons discard is probably only going to make you discard curses/estates/coppers. If your draws make it so that you're hitting 5 and not 6 in the early-to-mid-game, I would definitely consider Wharf-BM here, even though the downside is that you might draw a familiar or two dead.
« Last Edit: September 20, 2016, 11:10:40 am by SettingFraming »
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diedre91

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Re: Familiar Vs Goons - What did I do wrong?
« Reply #12 on: September 20, 2016, 11:34:37 am »
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When I do my scan of this board, there are a few things that jump out.

1. There are no villages.
2. There is no non-terminal draw.
3. There is no thinning, and there is junking

What all of this means, then, is that is basically going to be a big-money game. 1 and 2 alone is usually enough to ensure this, though sometimes with strong trashing and no junking the engine is still the right play.

You're going to want familiars pretty badly, as if junking is there you really need to do it in a game like this. I think Potion/Silver is the correct opening, even though I typically hate doing it. Hitting 6 on turn 3 is great, but it's not that great since they're not going to be able to play that goons consistently for a little while, and goons is really not that much better than a militia here. It's better, of course, but really not by much. Since you can't play multiple, it's just a militia that also gets you a few VP. The +Buy is almost a footnote, since you're not going to be hitting high numbers in this game.

Anyways, what would be my plan for this game?

Basically:
Open Potion/Silver, buy familiars while hitting 3P and you've got a good chance at playing the familiar before the curses run out. Other than that,
3: Silver
4: Silver
5: Mystic, or an Artificer if (A) the average $ value of your deck is above $1.3 or so, or (B) if it's early and the Mystic is going to possibly prevent you from getting your familiar plays in.
6: Goons, probably stop at 3, maybe even do things like pick up a 4th if one is going to miss the shuffle.

Other than that, follow the basic big money gameplay for things like provinces and duchies.

I don't think you're going to do much better than that in a game like this. Big money play requires discipline, you really need to stick to your plan and not do things like pick up an ironworks or a bridge to give yourself the best chance of winning.

Also, as a side-note, no one is talking about Wharf-BM here instead of Goons-BM. On this particular board I think Wharf-BM could absolutely be competitive--you're junked and not thinned so the Goons discard is probably only going to make you discard curses/estates/coppers. If your draws make it so that you're hitting 5 and not 6 in the early-to-mid-game, I would definitely consider Wharf-BM here, even though the downside is that you might draw a familiar or two dead.

I do not agree. Of course, part of your payload is going to be Golds and Silvers. But there is Peddler and Goons on this board.
It is hard to include Peddlers/Goons into a Wharf-BM deck with no village. Not mentioning that discarding attacks are terrible for BM decks.

The plan seems to get Goons ASAP and then buy Peddlers with Familiar, Artificer and/or Mystic help.
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SettingFraming

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Re: Familiar Vs Goons - What did I do wrong?
« Reply #13 on: September 20, 2016, 12:12:49 pm »
+1

I do not agree. Of course, part of your payload is going to be Golds and Silvers. But there is Peddler and Goons on this board.
It is hard to include Peddlers/Goons into a Wharf-BM deck with no village. Not mentioning that discarding attacks are terrible for BM decks.

The plan seems to get Goons ASAP and then buy Peddlers with Familiar, Artificer and/or Mystic help.

I coded this into the simulator (using rspeer's as it's faster to get cranking), and the simulator says that it's pretty close. I didn't optimize fully, but the fact that's it's close would lead you to believe that there are some situations in which, given the right draws, Wharf-BM is the right play here.

Buy rules for goons:
        "Province" if my.getTotalMoney() > 18
        "Duchy" if state.gainsToEndGame() <= 4
        "Estate" if state.gainsToEndGame() <= 2
        "Goons" if my.countInDeck("Goons") <= 3
        "Familiar" if state.countInSupply("Curse") >= 3
        "Potion" if my.countInDeck("Potion") == 0
        "Gold"
        "Duchy" if state.gainsToEndGame() <= 6
        "Peddler"
        "Silver"
        "Copper" if state.gainsToEndGame() <= 7 # Ideally I'd also code AND goons in play here, but you're unlikely to not hit 3 late in the game so this doesn't really matter.

Buy rules for Wharf:
        "Province" if my.getTotalMoney() > 18
        "Duchy" if state.gainsToEndGame() <= 4
        "Estate" if state.gainsToEndGame() <= 2
        "Gold" if my.countInDeck("Wharf") >= 1
        "Wharf" if my.countInDeck("Wharf") <= 3
        "Familiar" if state.countInSupply("Curse") >= 3
        "Potion" if my.countInDeck("Potion") == 0
        "Gold"
        "Duchy" if state.gainsToEndGame() <= 6
        "Silver"
        "Peddler"

Goons wins 57% of the games here. Yes, discard attacks hurt big money, but they don't hurt junked big money as badly as pure big money, and Wharf's draw is good enough to overcome in many cases.

The presence of Artificer/Mystic would help the goons player a little more, of course, but it would still be fairly close. You want to be the Goons player here, but being the Wharf player would be OK, given the right draws.
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Re: Familiar Vs Goons - What did I do wrong?
« Reply #14 on: September 20, 2016, 12:31:02 pm »
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Not mentioning that discarding attacks are terrible for BM decks.

This is a good generalization, but is far off when one is talking about Wharf being the money which is being played - with no other cards present, Wharf money beats Goons around 60% of the time and obliterates Militia, winning close to 80% of the time.

Having said that, I agree that Goons is a better terminal than Wharf on this board (which the sim backs up), but the reason is not the attack, it is points. Both players having 5 curses in their deck means little advantages in points are a big deal, especially when they do not impact your deck. If one looks at the sample game, it would be conceivable that the poster here would still be in the game (replacing the Ironworkses with Silver) if the opponent were to be at 10 points rather than 20. Peddlers are convenient to pick up on spare buys, but this does not change whether you are playing Goons or Wharf, and if you wish to center a strategy around them (which I would not) you would greatly prefer Wharf to Goons.

Having one or two wharves is probably a good idea - getting too obsessive about terminal collision and dead draw is not a good idea when you have 8+ dead cards in your deck - you should be happy to play a terminal each turn, not sad when you can't play 2.

Dingan

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Re: Familiar Vs Goons - What did I do wrong?
« Reply #15 on: September 20, 2016, 01:42:39 pm »
+1

Does that sim take Pilgrimage into account?  Playing against a bot a few times, it seems to really help Wharf-BM.
« Last Edit: September 20, 2016, 01:44:09 pm by Dingan »
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SettingFraming

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Re: Familiar Vs Goons - What did I do wrong?
« Reply #16 on: September 20, 2016, 01:57:32 pm »
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Does that sim take Pilgrimage into account?  Playing against a bot a few times, it seems to really help Wharf-BM.

It doesn't. The sim only takes into account what you see, just what I whipped up quickly.
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Chris is me

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Re: Familiar Vs Goons - What did I do wrong?
« Reply #17 on: September 20, 2016, 02:31:45 pm »
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I think the sim strategy if anything is weighted toward the Wharf player. The Goons player is going to green more slowly and not as aggressively, as they rack up VP just for existing. The VP isn't game defining like in an engine but it's a significant impact, and the discard attack does influence the Wharf player a lot (forces a lot more Gold investment than otherwise needed).

Otherwise, I think the analysis of "Do Familiar, then do Goons" is right. One other minor factor in favor of the Goons deck is that Familiar can become a stop card in a Wharf BM deck but it can't be in a Goons deck.

Also, Pilgrimage helps Goons BM too. Goons Gold Silver for $8/ 2 buy is roughly as helpful as Wharf / Gold / Silver for the same amount.
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Re: Familiar Vs Goons - What did I do wrong?
« Reply #18 on: September 22, 2016, 02:38:37 am »
+1

No, here sim proves nothing else than GIGO. There is glaring bug as sim buys wharves instead of second familiar and obviously lose when that happens. If one fixes sim priority then results are 50%/50% with 10000 games.

Also here its better to get two scavengers after silver/potion and topdeck familiars until curses run out. I am not sure if wharf/artificer/goons follow-up is better here.

Lastly artificer is great here and favours wharf as there is plenty of green/purple to use for silver flooding or late-game duchies.
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