In which scenario does WW fakeclaim? Well, it's supposed to be acquitting him. Suppose he performed the kill as scum, because he's the Strongman. No kill makes it likely that he was roleblocked, which in turn makes him look pretty bad. Vig claim is a way out, and to stay alive. Countering this is the fact that he planned this claim early (with breadcrumbing and asking for my reads), so that would mean that he planned it without knowing he would get into this kind of situation.
so you're saying that he claims vig, pre-empting when someone claims that they roleblocked him (and putting suspicion on s-a if they don't). this assumes MFBXXX (where f is what rr is) and that the roleblocker chose ww (generously 25%, factoring in the potential of >1 roleblocker), which has a total of ~8% chance, and a ~6% chance if you believe me. you are also stating that my potential fakeclaim would result in that juicy 2% difference, plus a bunch of other stuff.
we have, at the very least, 2 roles accounted for, and 1 other one evident if scum didn't decide not to kill (which has to be negligible, right?) so there are limited possibilities. what else is new?
given this, the following board states could result in ww fakeclaiming vig (wherein i give the probability of each, considering how restrictive they are):
the one described above:
8%. not completely disjoint with the previous case, though, so maybe, like,
7%?
MC{D/E/R}TTT:
<12.5%. this assumes exactly one town role that saved faust (not necessarily me) and that scum didn't use 1-shot strongman (it gives the info of whether there is a doctor, also they might want to use it later ofc) or roleblock correctly. ww claims vig for free townpoints, to put suspicion on sa (it's working!) and because he knows that there isn't a way to refute it. people have sort of been discounting this one, though it is refuted if there are any other power roles.
and these are the possibilities if we assume ww is not lying:
MCVBXX (i.e., one 1-shot vig and at least one rb):
9%, but it only works if scum's roleblocker chose ww (which they may have just determined completely from the breadcrumbs) or if sa is bulletproof (25% of two more prs * 33% that it was sa) and also our rb targeted scum (somewhat unlikely; 25%?) which ultimately produces something like
2 or 3% MCVDDX or MCVDEX (i.e., one 1-shot vig and at least two doctors):
6%, again either scum's rb targeted ww or sa is bulletproof
so it would seem like, considering all possible board states with only our current information, ww is probably not a vigilante. however, this likelihood is diminished by the fact that, well, he says he's a vigilante, and that no one has come out as a roleblocker, and perhaps the fact that people know that they have power roles. but, people seem to be making the assumption that there is no outcome wherein scum wouldn't use strongman (but oh, there is!) and forgetting that vt is the most likely role. that said,
i would caution against unilaterally accepting ww's claim, with our current information. also i would appreciate it if someone pointed out a fallacy i made somewhere.
at the moment, if anyone could claim rb, it would be tresbien. if somebody claimed doctor, that would probably help with our understanding of the board state, but it would still be bad, probably.
Author
Topic: M86: Ghibli Mafia - Game over. (Read 163539 times)