Print

Please login or register.
1 Hour 1 Day 1 Week 1 Month Forever
Login with username, password and session length

[Joseph2302]

Faust: claim obviously true
WW: claim probably true
Schadd: someone is a doctor, but claim may well be true. I think okay for now, as a 1-shot doctor who had used their shot would probably counterclaim him

I'm not sure I understand the schadd thing

Assume schadd is lying i.e. he's scum rather than a 1-shot doctor.
Then it's likely we have 2 doctors, so it's likely 1 of them is 1-shot (check the setup & do the maths).
The true 1-shot doctor will have used his shot up protecting faust.
Therefore, the true 1-shot doctor is basically a VT now.
So they would counterclaim schadd.
No-one has counterclaimed schadd, ergo it seems reasonably likely he's telling the truth.

[gkrieg13]

Faust: claim obviously true
WW: claim probably true
Schadd: someone is a doctor, but claim may well be true. I think okay for now, as a 1-shot doctor who had used their shot would probably counterclaim him

I'm not sure I understand the schadd thing

Assume schadd is lying i.e. he's scum rather than a 1-shot doctor.
Then it's likely we have 2 doctors, so it's likely 1 of them is 1-shot (check the setup & do the maths).
The true 1-shot doctor will have used his shot up protecting faust.
Therefore, the true 1-shot doctor is basically a VT now.
So they would counterclaim schadd.
No-one has counterclaimed schadd, ergo it seems reasonably likely he's telling the truth.

But 2 1-shot doctors and one full doctor is possible right?  That would be DDMVCE

[Joseph2302]

Faust: claim obviously true
WW: claim probably true
Schadd: someone is a doctor, but claim may well be true. I think okay for now, as a 1-shot doctor who had used their shot would probably counterclaim him

I'm not sure I understand the schadd thing

Assume schadd is lying i.e. he's scum rather than a 1-shot doctor.
Then it's likely we have 2 doctors, so it's likely 1 of them is 1-shot (check the setup & do the maths).
The true 1-shot doctor will have used his shot up protecting faust.
Therefore, the true 1-shot doctor is basically a VT now.
So they would counterclaim schadd.
No-one has counterclaimed schadd, ergo it seems reasonably likely he's telling the truth.

But 2 1-shot doctors and one full doctor is possible right?  That would be DDMVCE

Yes or DDDMVC.
Damn people making my logic look bad.

[Joseph2302]

[schadd]

WW: 1-shot vig, who shot Space last night
schadd: 1-shot doc, saved faust last night

   i think there is a small but perhaps non-trivial chance that ww is lying. in the case that the scums know that there are between 2 and 3 PRs, they might have elected to not use the strongman in order to gather information, and when faust didn't die (you're welcome, maybe) that was an all-clear that it is CEM and there are no vigilantes, and thus no-one to contest the vig thing. if anyone else knows they have they have a PR (esp. cop, since it can't explain faust's survival), then they will know this scenario to be impossible.
   in the case of 4-6 power roles, it gets more entropic (what with roleblockers and junk), and scum!ww might feel too uncertain about claiming vig (though i wouldn't be surprised if he had somewhat precise probablistic stuff that he wasn't willing to share).
   these scenarios seem somewhat maybe unlikely; from my perspective (i.e., given MEC or so), the first one i think has a 1-in-8 chance, and the current situation that we're concocting to account for ww's claim seems, well, pretty hard to compute. which of these gets shaved off by occam's razor? this is the part where probability analysis would really help town and also be super boring.


  pros, for ww's case: the breadcrumb definitely only helps his case. that said, i perhaps wouldn't put it past scum!him to do that just to see if it would become useful.


  cons, for ww's case: he really seemed to skip past the part where he provided a lot of evidence for the claim (considering that there is nothing that happened N2 that would make more sense with a vig) and went right to the implications part. perhaps the fact that we have collectively been willing to accept ww's claim suggests that we do indeed have a bunch of folks with PRs.


   maybe i as well didn't provide any evidence for my claim, but also, uh, read the parenthetical in the last paragraph. and i don't suppose people would have trouble believing me if i said that i sorta forgot about my medical degree until D2ish, which is why there aren't any breadcrumbs or anything.


   also, crapcrud hecking heckfarts. roadrunner seemed so scummy. it is not doing me any favors that i was the first person to vote for the two lynches on their respective days

[schadd]

WW: 1-shot vig, who shot Space last night
schadd: 1-shot doc, saved faust last night

it looks like i intentionally quoted this for context, but i meant to say "this sounds like song lyrics" and then do the rest of the post as a separate thought. i forgot to do that.

[schadd]

here is another random thing


at the time of this post, this is the post count in this thread of the following people (including the sign-up ones, but those are negligible):


witherweaver: 151
faust: 125
j reggie: 111
lalight: 110
iguanaiguana: 98
gkrieg: 93
schaddio: 78
joseph: 74
spaceanemone: 59

[Joseph2302]

here is another random thing


at the time of this post, this is the post count in this thread of the following people (including the sign-up ones, but those are negligible):


witherweaver: 151
faust: 125
j reggie: 111
lalight: 110
iguanaiguana: 98
gkrieg: 93
schaddio: 78
joseph: 74
spaceanemone: 59

So Space is the lurker then- should vote him.

[Joseph2302]

Vote: Gkrieg

[SpaceAnemone]

So Space is the lurker then- should vote him.

I clam up when there are too many people in the room, so my numbers haven't recovered from a quiet D1. Mail-mi already commented on that, and eventually agreed he was wrong to call it scummy, given the same thing happened in BSG... the fact he was trying the same tactic here as when he persuaded gkrieg to mislynch me in BSG is one of the main reasons I voted for him earlier on here.

Also, I'm still not a "him"...

[Witherweaver]

"him" evidently mean Gkrieg~

[SpaceAnemone]

"him" evidently mean Gkrieg~

I guess Joseph is being confusing...

Should I understand what the little "8" graphic he posted was about?

[J Reggie]

"him" evidently mean Gkrieg~

I guess Joseph is being confusing...

Should I understand what the little "8" graphic he posted was about?

I guess he's in debt? I'm not really understanding the gkrieg thing either.

[faust]

I targeted Space primarily because of Faust's last posts yesterday.

So you decided to sheep me because me reads so far have proven to be so amazing?

[Witherweaver]

I targeted Space primarily because of Faust's last posts yesterday.

So you decided to sheep me because me reads so far have proven to be so amazing?

Because how likely is it that you're wrong about everyone?

[Witherweaver]

Also, the other stuff I said during that post.

[ashersky]

Vote Count 3.2:

SpaceAnemone (3): Witherweaver, gkrieg13, LaLight
Witherweaver (1): faust
gkrieg13 (1): Joseph2302

Not Voting (4): SpaceAnemone, J Reggie, schadd, iguanaiguana

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.

Day 3 ends on October 9 at 10:00 a.m.

[Witherweaver]

For what it's worth, I looked back over the game (specifically Space, LaLight, and the general end of day), to see if I found anything to make me want to shoot someone, and at the end Space seemed the best.

[Witherweaver]

Scum had choice between two mislynches around the end of yesterday, so I'm not really sure what information is in the treatment of those wagons.

[gkrieg13]

Post?

[gkrieg13]

I had a bug post that got eaten. How do you feel about iguana now Faust?

Same with WW and SA.

Also I'm still down for a Joseph lynch

[Witherweaver]

I don't think Iguana is preferable to Space.  Though his entry into today makes me want to lynch him.

Joseph I still don't have a feeling on. 

[faust]

Hi. Well, I think the chance that both WW and Space are town is quite low, given my survival. I don't really like the way WW is playing this, but uh that usually means that he's town. That 1-shot BP explanation is not great. Let's try to figure some stuff out.

We have: MFXXXX (F is C or E) for sure. If WW tells the truth, it's MFVXXX. If schadd tells the truth as well, it's one of

MEEVXX
MECVXX
MDDCVX

This all means that mafia has a full strongman. So why did I not die?

1) Mafia did not use the Strongman kill. Seems very unlikely, because there's no Tracker, so basically no reason to do so.
2) Mafia got blocked, leading to
MEEVBX
MECVBX
MDDCVB

3) I got double-doctored, so MDDCVX.

I think if we have a roleblocker, they should claim, because that will most likely give us a scum, and even the Strongman.

Also, we have at most one X unaccounted for, so 1-shot BP scum is a real possibility.

[gkrieg13]

So you are assuming that WW is telling the truth and saying the chance that both WW and SA are town is very low.  So you are saying you think SA is scum then? 

Actually your whole post is a little weird.  You are saying that you don't like the 1-shot BP explanation, but then your conclusion is that it is a real possibility?

[iguanaiguana]

Faust is IC and schadd is close enough for me to give him a game-pass.

I believe WW. Why, on a night that no one died, would scum fakeclaim using one shot of a vigilante power? That makes no sense. It wouldn't even occur to them. The only reason to claim something like that is if it actually happened. If WW is faking that claim, I congratulate him for being very creative.

That leaves me with Gkrieg, LaLight, Joseph, Space, and J Reggie and three of those five are scum.

Based on how LaLight reacted to my suspicion yesterday, I don't think LaLight is scum anymore. Between the last four, trying to figure out which one is town is uh super hard. Yes, that's assuming I made the correct decision about everyone else. I could be wrong about LaLight or WW, I just really don't think so.

Anyway, I guess the most likely town to me out of those four is........ Gkrieg? But, Gkrieg could seriously be scum and just playing well too, so yeah.

That's where I'm at.

I'm kinda annoyed that we failed to lynch J Reggie D1, then he just lurked the next several days, and now even still no one is considering he's scum when the odds from my perspective are overwhelming that he is scum and the odds from everyone else's perspective should be pretty damn high too.