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[silverspawn]

based on game reasons I mean

[silverspawn]

Also if RR was a bodyguard why did the tracker die? That requires a roleblocker AND a strongman shot, which in turn makes RR more likely again since it takes away the only good argument in his defense.

but his whole flailing is just not towny. Have you ever seen RR flail in a game where he was town?

[Calamitas]

Also if RR was a bodyguard why did the tracker die? That requires a roleblocker AND a strongman shot, which in turn makes RR more likely again since it takes away the only good argument in his defense.

but his whole flailing is just not towny. Have you ever seen RR flail in a game where he was town?

I haven't and I havd no problem with reasoning ;-)
I have just a problem with needlessly speeding up the game. And with 1-3 odds it's certainly clear what to do, but we have more evidence than just that (behavior etc. which has to be taken into account as well).

And another question, why weren't you sharing your suspicion about mail-mi? The day might ave easily ended before you did and you might have died in that night.

[silverspawn]

dk that was careless

[silverspawn]

let me do it now

I posted a lot in my QT and am beginning to think that the team is RR - Calamitas

This would mean that the entire bodyguard claim chain was staged. That's a fairly big assumption, but it really covers everything. My biggest reason for town!Calamitas so far was his reaction to the claim, that's gone.

Evidence supporting this theory

- Setup probability
- Bodyguards never successfully protecting anyone
- Calamitas' behavior now. It just makes no sense. I feel like he is pushing a stupid agenda but he is too reasonable of a person to do it believably, and that is why it just comes out strange. He also went from "I want to lynch silver!" to "yea RR is best choice but I'll just wait a bit"
- The fact that we did have the same role claimed so often. For setup randomization that is irrelevant (BBB is as likely as any other 3 1-point roles), but the human element we get with fakeclaims could make that more likely.


Evidence against this theory:
- the low a-priori chance for sucm to do such a thing

and that's pretty much it.

You should re-read stuff more carefully before you do anything. Look at the tracker claim and their reaction. Also just read the entire game with that theory in mind, see if it makes sense.

If not, go for mail-mi. I really doubt it's iguana.

[silverspawn]

oh and when I say "that's pretty much it" I mean that's the only point; but it's a strong point. Right now I'd say Calamitas - RR is more likely than mail-mi - RR but I'm not sure.

[silverspawn]

There's a problem here.


Everyone wants to lynch Seprix, where at least one person really shouldn't. It's not clear at all which bodyguard is scum, so why would scum bus?

Roadrunner's scrambling is towny enough to convince me that scum is not bussing, and is on the lynch. I'm super suspicious of silverspawn/Seprix right now.

Vote: Seprix

uh forgot this. Maybe it is RR/iguana after all.

[silverspawn]

The first Seprix means RR in that post.

But actually, eh. That's not that likely of a partner post, because if they were partners, then igu would be the guy who shouldn't like it. I don't think scum argues that way.

[silverspawn]

There's a problem here.


Everyone wants to lynch Seprix Roadrunner, where at least one person really shouldn't. It's not clear at all which bodyguard is scum, so why would scum bus?

Roadrunner's scrambling is towny enough to convince me that scum is not bussing, and is on the lynch. I'm super suspicious of silverspawn/Seprix right now.

Vote: Seprix

I assume the scum partner is bussing to not stand out after RR flips as mafia RB. Someone who actively defends RR would clearly be on the radar then. Especially since rr is if he is actual scum doomed in either way. If Seprix would be todays lynch (those two are by now the only targets that make sense) and flip bodyguard, rr is very likely to get lynched tomorrow.

This is a partnery post

[silverspawn]

If Roadrunner is town, I'll be chatting with him after the game about how not to get lynched.

Vote: Roadrunner L-1

also a towny post

[silverspawn]

Seprix is looking worse and worse.

My choice is between Seprix and RR tonight, not Calamitas. At least not today. If Seprix or rr flips town I'll look at Calamitas.

Seprix, what about your play (NOT just your claim) should convince us that you're town? Please note that I (and iguana, I presume) will be trying my best to drop the confirmation bias. Same question for RR.

*sigh*

mail-mi has a big part of the blame in the Seprix lynch . . .

[silverspawn]

Seprix (4): Calamitas, RoadRunner7671, mail-mi, Seprix

[silverspawn]

It's bedtime now, and I won't steal Calamitas' scum hammer.
If it hasn't happened by morning though I'm taking it.

I won't take it now that I have thought it true. Iguana and silver are clearly pushing a lynch over the top. Silver by flattering me before, iguana by saying there are no other possibilities than scum!rr even though there are ridiculously many (Modifiers, rb+strongman). I think that was intended to lure me into voting rr what was almost happening due to my stupidity.That behavior is IMO clearly scummy and (at least by now) the only lynch I can agree with is silver. Before hammering, please re-read at least the last few pages. They are clearly trying to push us into something we shouldn't do which is ridiculously scummy. I will go slee again, please consider my thoughts before hammering.

Mr. "yesterday I pusehed a mislynch against silver's constant criticism together with the guy who practically just claimed scum"

Mr. Spamming

these posts are just so horrible

[silverspawn]

now I'm nitpicking, but if Calamitas is town, why did he never question my probabilities? I haven't provided any evidence for them. As far as he knows, they could just be made up.

if he's scum and he knows that they point into the right direction he'd be scared to question them.

[silverspawn]

kind of glad that I won't have to make that choice.

but make the right one. My winrate right now is exactly 60%. I don't want to go below that!

[Calamitas]

now I'm nitpicking, but if Calamitas is town, why did he never question my probabilities? I haven't provided any evidence for them. As far as he knows, they could just be made up.

if he's scum and he knows that they point into the right direction he'd be scared to question them.

Simple reason, you previously said you gathered those probabilities via simulations and without access to a computer and I won't be able to check them. Tomorrow/in two days I will certainly check them if the day is stoll ongoing then.

[iguanaiguana]

This development is very lol

[iguanaiguana]

It's bedtime now, and I won't steal Calamitas' scum hammer.
If it hasn't happened by morning though I'm taking it.

I won't take it now that I have thought it true. Iguana and silver are clearly pushing a lynch over the top.

Just a falsity. silver and I are not clearly doing anything. I am town, and my motivation is to lynch Roadrunner, who is now confirmed scum to me, and win with town. To say that we are clearly scum, when our town motivation is very clear, and the most likely explanation for our behavior, is absurd.

Silver by flattering me before, iguana by saying there are no other possibilities than scum!rr even though there are ridiculously many (Modifiers, rb+strongman).
[/quote

I originally thought there were none. Then, I realized there are a few. However, to me, those don't really matter. As silver has already stated, the probabilities are low enough of all of that occuring to line up to frame Roadrunner that we just lynch him now regardles.

I think that was intended to lure me into voting rr what was almost happening due to my stupidity.That behavior is IMO clearly scummy and (at least by now) the only lynch I can agree with is silver. Before hammering, please re-read at least the last few pages. They are clearly trying to push us into something we shouldn't do which is ridiculously scummy. I will go slee again, please consider my thoughts before hammering.

Re-posted for upping

Ugh. Roadrunner is by far the scummiest player alive.  Look at how yesterday went down, and the shame-of-a-lynch that you, Mail-mi and Roadrunner were all on while silver and I were not. Your silver/Iguana conspiracy theory relies upon the idea that all of town, including Seprix, ended up lynching Seprix, while the only two scum both had not a single vote on them and were not voting for the mislynch. I admit that I waffled between Seprix and Roadrunner, because it was a difficult decision. But I WAS leaning Roadrunner at the time Seprix self-hammered. I will not deny that because it is true.


First you were 'convinced' of Seprix/Iguana, which has proven untrue, now silver/Iguana, which is pure idiocy. silver has been pushing the town towards lynching scum all game, and only because we haven't listened to him are we at LyLo right now.

[iguanaiguana]

I have more to say but I have to go to work.

Most of all, don't trivialize my decision making. Voting Roadrunner was NOT an easy decision. Yeesh.

[Calamitas]

It was 6am and my post were definitely to harsh.
 But I still think there is still the possibility iguana/silver from an outsiders view and therefore I'm not hammering before rereading and reconsidering.

[iguanaiguana]

It was 6am and my post were definitely to harsh.
 But I still think there is still the possibility iguana/silver from an outsiders view and therefore I'm not hammering before rereading and reconsidering.

Please consider that you are making this game more difficult for yourself to win as scum OR as town by making it look like you are Roadrunner's partner.

[iguanaiguana]

I do somewhat understand your hesitancy but a quick decision is customary on our site in a situation where one person is overwhelmingly likely to be scum, as I believe Roadrunner is here.

Mail-mi most likely is stalling, hoping you vote for one of us, so that Roadrunner and him can doublehammer and win.

[Calamitas]

It was 6am and my post were definitely to harsh.
 But I still think there is still the possibility iguana/silver from an outsiders view and therefore I'm not hammering before rereading and reconsidering.

Please consider that you are making this game more difficult for yourself to win as scum OR as town by making it look like you are Roadrunner's partner.

I want to remind you that I was considered very towny before yersterday by most players (except lalight maybe). Why making such an act of instead of hammering? And WIFOM doesn't make sense as reason either because the chance of me getting lynched on D4 was so low that the potential benefits of my behavior weren't worth the risks.

So I will take all time I want, the only ones that certainly know rrs alignment for certain are rr, you and silver. Me and mail don't.

[silverspawn]

It was 6am and my post were definitely to harsh.
 But I still think there is still the possibility iguana/silver from an outsiders view and therefore I'm not hammering before rereading and reconsidering.

Please consider that you are making this game more difficult for yourself to win as scum OR as town by making it look like you are Roadrunner's partner.

I want to remind you that I was considered very towny before yersterday by most players (except lalight maybe). Why making such an act of instead of hammering? And WIFOM doesn't make sense as reason either because the chance of me getting lynched on D4 was so low that the potential benefits of my behavior weren't worth the risks.

So I will take all time I want, the only ones that certainly know rrs alignment for certain are rr, you and silver. Me and mail don't.

yes, that's indeed bad play if you are scum. But as scum you had a lot of temptation... you could end the game RIGHT NOW, why go through the trouble of waiting another day?

And your play is frankly similarly bad as town, which is why it's not alignment indicative.

[mail-mi]

I do somewhat understand your hesitancy but a quick decision is customary on our site in a situation where one person is overwhelmingly likely to be scum, as I believe Roadrunner is here.

Mail-mi most likely is stalling, hoping you vote for one of us, so that Roadrunner and him can doublehammer and win.

Mail-mi was sleeping.

Sorry Calamitas, but you're just wrong. Rr is scum. vote: roadrunner