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Author Topic: M85: Olympics Mafia (Game Over!)  (Read 113539 times)

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Calamitas

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Re: M85: Olympics Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #675 on: August 29, 2016, 06:59:51 pm »

Okay, time to analyze bodyguard claims.

RR
What we know: RR targeted Silverspawn (or LaLight has a Random modifier--not actually unlikely, considering the number of PRs we have. But I'm going to assume LaLight's Tracker isn't Random.)
RR says it's because he was bodyguarding Silverspawn. Why did you bodyguard Silverspawn, RR?
Unless RR is lying town (if so, whyyyyyy), he's either the bodyguard, or mafia. Looking back at the setup, he can't be the JOAT, they don't have any non-killing targeting powers. So RR is either a bodyguard or the roleblocker.

Calamitas and Seprix
Both have only stated that they are bodyguards. Calamitas and Seprix, who did you target yesterday?
I did target Seprix twice since he is either one of the most valuable town player or scum.
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Oh, i just don't like mafia games.

Town (5/9): M85, RMM35, M87, NM9, M90RMM38, M92, M91, M102,
Scum (3/3): M84, M88, M100

MVPs (1): M84

Calamitas

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Re: M85: Olympics Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #676 on: August 29, 2016, 07:01:15 pm »

Okay, time to analyze bodyguard claims.

RR
What we know: RR targeted Silverspawn (or LaLight has a Random modifier--not actually unlikely, considering the number of PRs we have. But I'm going to assume LaLight's Tracker isn't Random.)
RR says it's because he was bodyguarding Silverspawn. Why did you bodyguard Silverspawn, RR?
Unless RR is lying town (if so, whyyyyyy), he's either the bodyguard, or mafia. Looking back at the setup, he can't be the JOAT, they don't have any non-killing targeting powers. So RR is either a bodyguard or the roleblocker.

Calamitas and Seprix
Both have only stated that they are bodyguards. Calamitas and Seprix, who did you target yesterday?
I did target Seprix twice since he is either one of the most valuable town player or scum.
Forget the twice, was referring to my N0 action I thought I would have but hadn't (was guarding silver even then)
Logged
Oh, i just don't like mafia games.

Town (5/9): M85, RMM35, M87, NM9, M90RMM38, M92, M91, M102,
Scum (3/3): M84, M88, M100

MVPs (1): M84

Calamitas

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Re: M85: Olympics Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #677 on: August 29, 2016, 07:01:36 pm »

Okay, time to analyze bodyguard claims.

RR
What we know: RR targeted Silverspawn (or LaLight has a Random modifier--not actually unlikely, considering the number of PRs we have. But I'm going to assume LaLight's Tracker isn't Random.)
RR says it's because he was bodyguarding Silverspawn. Why did you bodyguard Silverspawn, RR?
Unless RR is lying town (if so, whyyyyyy), he's either the bodyguard, or mafia. Looking back at the setup, he can't be the JOAT, they don't have any non-killing targeting powers. So RR is either a bodyguard or the roleblocker.

Calamitas and Seprix
Both have only stated that they are bodyguards. Calamitas and Seprix, who did you target yesterday?
I did target Seprix twice since he is either one of the most valuable town player or scum.
Forget the twice, was referring to my N0 action I thought I would have but hadn't (was trying to guard silver even then)
Logged
Oh, i just don't like mafia games.

Town (5/9): M85, RMM35, M87, NM9, M90RMM38, M92, M91, M102,
Scum (3/3): M84, M88, M100

MVPs (1): M84

Calamitas

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Re: M85: Olympics Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #678 on: August 29, 2016, 07:05:35 pm »

That happens if you try to post as quickly as possible to avoid emerging doubts because of hesitation, either way i was guarding silver in N1.
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Oh, i just don't like mafia games.

Town (5/9): M85, RMM35, M87, NM9, M90RMM38, M92, M91, M102,
Scum (3/3): M84, M88, M100

MVPs (1): M84

mail-mi

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Re: M85: Olympics Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #679 on: August 29, 2016, 07:05:40 pm »

I did target Seprix twice since he is either one of the most valuable town player or scum.

Forget the twice, was referring to my N0 action I thought I would have but hadn't (was trying to guard silver even then)

So which was it? Seprix or silver?
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'And what is it that ye shall hope for? Behold I say unto you that ye shall have hope through the atonement of Christ and the power of his resurrection, to be raised unto life eternal, and this because of your faith in him according to the promise." - Moroni 7:41, the Book of Mormon

Calamitas

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Re: M85: Olympics Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #680 on: August 29, 2016, 07:09:04 pm »

I did target Seprix twice since he is either one of the most valuable town player or scum.

Forget the twice, was referring to my N0 action I thought I would have but hadn't (was trying to guard silver even then)

So which was it? Seprix or silver?
The hell, its definitely to late out here. Guarding silver.
Good night.
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Oh, i just don't like mafia games.

Town (5/9): M85, RMM35, M87, NM9, M90RMM38, M92, M91, M102,
Scum (3/3): M84, M88, M100

MVPs (1): M84

silverspawn

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Re: M85: Olympics Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #681 on: August 29, 2016, 07:40:45 pm »

VT.

And that is altogether quite interesting.

silverspawn

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Re: M85: Olympics Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #682 on: August 29, 2016, 08:51:56 pm »

Maths:

I'm trying to do it correctly right away, but I'm not 100% sure if I got it right. Nonetheless here is what I did.

I compared five worlds:

a) The world where we have 3 Bodyguards and 1 Tracker
b) The world where we have 2 Bodyguards and 1 Tracker
c) The world where we have 1 Bodyguard and 1 Tracker
d) The world where we have 3 Bodyguards and 0 Tracker
e) The world where we have 2 Bodyguards and 0 Tracker

And tried to compute the a priori chance for each of them to be true. Doing this per real maths is way too complex I believe, so I simulated. That means running trial randomizations and tossing a coin into bowl 1 if a) happened to be true; a coin into bowl 2 if 2b happened to be true; etc. Stop at 100 000 coins.

To simplify, I reduced the pool of possible roles to just Bodyguard and Tracker. This shouldn't change anything because every run where another role is chosen would not count towards any of the bowls. I also removed Loud and Witness from the list of modifiers, because we seem to have none of those. Claim if this isn't true.

Results:
World a) has 24% of being true
World b) has 50% of being true
World c) has 21% of being true
World d) has 5% of being true
World e) is actually impossible (duh)

This means, purely based on probability, of the Bodyguards

Two are lying: ~1/4
One is lying: ~1/2
None is lying: ~1/4

silverspawn

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Re: M85: Olympics Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #683 on: August 29, 2016, 08:52:36 pm »

And those are extremely frustrating results because they literally don't tell us anything. Scum got super lucky here.

silverspawn

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Re: M85: Olympics Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #684 on: August 29, 2016, 08:54:04 pm »

so tl;dr we can forget about them (unless I did something wrong) and go back to reads.

Sorry that I couldn't deliver more, but it is what it is. In past games we used to have more telling setup probability all the time.

mail-mi

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Re: M85: Olympics Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #685 on: August 29, 2016, 08:57:42 pm »

so tl;dr we can forget about them (unless I did something wrong) and go back to reads.

Sorry that I couldn't deliver more, but it is what it is. In past games we used to have more telling setup probability all the time.

I still think we should lynch among the bodyguards today, at least. There's a good chance one of them is lying.
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I currently imagine mail-mi wearing a dark trenchcoat and a bowler hat, hunched over a bit, toothpick in his mouth, holding a gun in his pocket.  One bead of sweat trickling down his nose.

'And what is it that ye shall hope for? Behold I say unto you that ye shall have hope through the atonement of Christ and the power of his resurrection, to be raised unto life eternal, and this because of your faith in him according to the promise." - Moroni 7:41, the Book of Mormon

iguanaiguana

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Re: M85: Olympics Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #686 on: August 29, 2016, 09:05:55 pm »

Watcher died N1 SA
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Igu is town or trying the hardest he ever has as scum.

iguanaiguana

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Re: M85: Olympics Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #687 on: August 29, 2016, 09:09:55 pm »

We also know Joseph was a VT
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Igu is town or trying the hardest he ever has as scum.

silverspawn

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Re: M85: Olympics Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #688 on: August 29, 2016, 09:11:48 pm »

Watcher died N1 SA

 ... ... ... ... ...  :'(

silverspawn

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Re: M85: Olympics Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #689 on: August 29, 2016, 09:13:00 pm »

well fuck everything. I completely forgot about the watcher flip.

Njeh. Disregard my results. Off to do it again.

We also know Joseph was a VT

That shouldn't matter I don't think.

silverspawn

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Re: M85: Olympics Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #690 on: August 29, 2016, 09:42:49 pm »

brrrlp back to the worlds.

a) The world where we have 1 Watcher 3 Bodyguards and 1 Tracker
b) The world where we have 1 Watcher 2 Bodyguards and 1 Tracker
c) The world where we have 1 Watcher 1 Bodyguard and 1 Tracker
d) The world where we have 1 Watcher 3 Bodyguards and 0 Tracker
e) The world where we have 1 Watcher 2 Bodyguards and 0 Tracker


Results:
World a) : 7,7%
World b) : 22%
World c) : 46%
World d) : 8.2%
World e) : 16%

silverspawn

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Re: M85: Olympics Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #691 on: August 29, 2016, 09:43:59 pm »

Now this is much better.

We definitely lynch among the bodyguards.

Given that I really trust the tracker claim based on reads, c) is particularly strong compared to a) and b).

silverspawn

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Re: M85: Olympics Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #692 on: August 29, 2016, 09:50:43 pm »

so RR, Calamitas, Seprix.

I don't want to lynch Calamitas because his "there can only be one Bodyguard, I caught you!" rang quite genuine.

Leaning Seprix over RR. The upside of lynching Seprix is that, if he flips Mafia Roleblocker, that clears Seprix based on the tracker result.

I wonder if they randomly went "Let's both claim Roleblocker, no-one will expect it!" in the QT.

silverspawn

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Re: M85: Olympics Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #693 on: August 29, 2016, 09:51:05 pm »

Seprix

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Re: M85: Olympics Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #694 on: August 29, 2016, 10:59:05 pm »

Leaning Seprix over RR. The upside of lynching Seprix is that, if he flips Mafia Roleblocker, that clears Seprix based on the tracker result.

Wait, what? Clear me of what exactly? Can you tell me what the apparent problem is?
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mail-mi

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Re: M85: Olympics Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #695 on: August 29, 2016, 11:15:31 pm »

Leaning Seprix over RR. The upside of lynching Seprix is that, if he flips Mafia Roleblocker, that clears Seprix based on the tracker result.

Wait, what? Clear me of what exactly? Can you tell me what the apparent problem is?

He corrected it to "clears RR."

Working on Rewind Mafia (which you should all join!), will contribute when that's done.
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I currently imagine mail-mi wearing a dark trenchcoat and a bowler hat, hunched over a bit, toothpick in his mouth, holding a gun in his pocket.  One bead of sweat trickling down his nose.

'And what is it that ye shall hope for? Behold I say unto you that ye shall have hope through the atonement of Christ and the power of his resurrection, to be raised unto life eternal, and this because of your faith in him according to the promise." - Moroni 7:41, the Book of Mormon

Roadrunner7671

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Re: M85: Olympics Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #696 on: August 29, 2016, 11:43:43 pm »

I targeted Silverspawn because I really thought he would get killed and I thought his acting weird might be because he was a PR. Silverspawn was the obvious night kill and people found me sort of scummy on D1 so I figured I would sabe Silverspawn instead of getting mislynched
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iguanaiguana

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Re: M85: Olympics Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #697 on: August 29, 2016, 11:52:13 pm »

Watcher died N1 SA

 ... ... ... ... ...  :'(

Very towny of you to forget it FWIW. If ever there were a legitimate townslip.....

Wait a sec, last time I said something like this, I was scum and I got lynched for it.
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Point iguana. Not that points really matter with a result, but still.
Igu is town or trying the hardest he ever has as scum.

iguanaiguana

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Re: M85: Olympics Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #698 on: August 29, 2016, 11:54:20 pm »

I agree with lynching a bodyguard claimant.

As for who, uh I need to reread I guess. It will take another couple of IRL days for me to do that.
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Point iguana. Not that points really matter with a result, but still.
Igu is town or trying the hardest he ever has as scum.

Roadrunner7671

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Re: M85: Olympics Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #699 on: August 30, 2016, 01:50:13 am »

I'm gonna report them over and over
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