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Author Topic: M85: Olympics Mafia (Game Over!)  (Read 113366 times)

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mail-mi

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Re: M85: Olympics Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #375 on: August 24, 2016, 02:15:58 pm »

Yeah, as I'd said before, I'd believe a LaLight-Joseph team much more than Silver's original Calamitas-Joseph call. Though I'm still not all that comfortable with Silver right now..
LaLight-Joseph? How?

By picking two players I'm suspicious of and sticking a hyphen in between their names, pretty much.

Other players I think are moderately suspicious are Silver and Mail-mi. Iguana has migrated to a bit of a null. I'm leaning town on the other three, so I would probably oppose a lynch on them without some really juicy new evidence.

Explain on me please?

I'm gonna put a reads list up soon. Didn't realize how close deadline was.
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Roadrunner7671

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Re: M85: Olympics Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #376 on: August 24, 2016, 02:18:17 pm »

All of the three 'wagons' are my preferred lynches, maybe less so with Iguanaiguana, but I don't know if I will be around for the deadline
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silverspawn

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Re: M85: Olympics Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #377 on: August 24, 2016, 02:28:56 pm »

I refuse to even follow your maths. It is absolutely 100% impossible that the odds of 2/9 for every person change based on putting them into sets.

He's just following through the numbers I posted yesterday about the chance of at least one of the scumteam being a newbie. It's an absolutely valid thing to consider given that he's proposing giving all three of us a D1 pass.

Calamitas was also right about the fun part coming when the inference begins. It's not ridiculously hard, though human beans aren't very good Bayesians naturally. Apparently reasoning in chickens has been shown to be much more Bayesian, though annoyingly I can't find the right citation for that just now. I'm sure it would have added lots to our conversation :-)

PPE: 5

... defending Joseph's maths is pretty scummy.

Joseph2302

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Re: M85: Olympics Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #378 on: August 24, 2016, 02:31:37 pm »

I refuse to even follow your maths. It is absolutely 100% impossible that the odds of 2/9 for every person change based on putting them into sets.

He's just following through the numbers I posted yesterday about the chance of at least one of the scumteam being a newbie. It's an absolutely valid thing to consider given that he's proposing giving all three of us a D1 pass.

Calamitas was also right about the fun part coming when the inference begins. It's not ridiculously hard, though human beans aren't very good Bayesians naturally. Apparently reasoning in chickens has been shown to be much more Bayesian, though annoyingly I can't find the right citation for that just now. I'm sure it would have added lots to our conversation :-)

PPE: 5

... defending Joseph's maths is pretty scummy.
Yh my maths is crap.
Town points to ss for wanting to stop my nonsense, and talk useful things instead.
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Roadrunner7671

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Re: M85: Olympics Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #379 on: August 24, 2016, 02:33:21 pm »

Ther is a 2 in 9 chance that a person is scum. Hooray for math.
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Re: M85: Olympics Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #380 on: August 24, 2016, 02:34:35 pm »

Ther is a 2 in 9 chance that a person is scum. Hooray for math.
2 in 8, assuming you're good.
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Re: M85: Olympics Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #381 on: August 24, 2016, 02:52:42 pm »

Explain on me please?

Many small things! You scumread people I think are being quite towny, and then also town-read LaLight without evidence beyond a feeling you said is based on having played Codewords. You went after RR quite strongly over the "leadership" issue even though there wasn't really anything worth debating there. You were on the suspicious-looking Seprix wagon at the point he was posting his suspicions about it. You had an argument against RR that you explicitly couldn't (or didn't want to) articulate to allow for any scrutiny. And you managed all that while also posting fewer times than any other player.

Yeah, I think mild suspicion is in order there :-)
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silverspawn

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Re: M85: Olympics Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #382 on: August 24, 2016, 03:38:01 pm »

it must be nice being so happy all the time >_<

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Re: M85: Olympics Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #383 on: August 24, 2016, 03:39:52 pm »

Explain on me please?

Many small things! You scumread people I think are being quite towny, and then also town-read LaLight without evidence beyond a feeling you said is based on having played Codewords. You went after RR quite strongly over the "leadership" issue even though there wasn't really anything worth debating there. You were on the suspicious-looking Seprix wagon at the point he was posting his suspicions about it. You had an argument against RR that you explicitly couldn't (or didn't want to) articulate to allow for any scrutiny. And you managed all that while also posting fewer times than any other player.

Yeah, I think mild suspicion is in order there :-)

Reasonable; I haven't looked at LaLight since like the very beginning of day; I thought there was; I thought he was scummy. Still think he is; I couldn't do the argument justice while I was on my phone, and now I'm on computer so I'll take a closer look at it again and see if it is bad like I thought it was.

Also, I'm more of an observer than a sayer. So I just don't post much, as scum or town. (I know it's not good, and I'm working on it.)
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Re: M85: Olympics Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #384 on: August 24, 2016, 03:56:43 pm »

Okay, rereading the bit with RR and iguana, it's not as bad as I thought it was. I still don't like it, though, but I'm going to unvote

What's worse is this:

vote: Iguana

Huh.. just as I was starting to get a reasonable level of town vibe from him, too.
'Him' being Seprix or Iguanaiguana?

Obviously me. I'm almost certain Iguana is scum now.
Scale of 1 to 10. ! is IC. 5 is null. 10 is confirmed scum.

How certain are you?

Seprix did not answer this question, yet he has posted after that (only once though) and has been on since then. Town people don't avoid questions, scum does. vote: seprix
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Roadrunner7671

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Re: M85: Olympics Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #385 on: August 24, 2016, 03:59:46 pm »

I'm not sure if that's scummy or not, but I do want him to answer my question. Being ignored is saddening
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mail-mi

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Re: M85: Olympics Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #386 on: August 24, 2016, 04:02:23 pm »

Time for a reads list!!

1. silverspawn--was acting weird. Still haven't figured out why, could be scummy. Wouldn't be unhappy with a lynch.
2. Calamitas--townier than ss, but still wouldn't be unhappy with a lynch. would prefer not to lynch today though because newbie.
3. Seprix--preferred lynch
4. Roadrunner7671--As stated above, isn't as bad as I thought he was. Would hesitantly vote for him.
5. Iguanaiguana--town
6. Mail-mi--IC
7. SpaceAnemone--newbie, and town. Would not lynch.
8. LaLight--despite what others have said, i think he's genuine town. Would only lynch if it's the only possible option
9. Joseph2302--eh, null. would lynch if necessary.
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mail-mi

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Re: M85: Olympics Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #387 on: August 24, 2016, 04:03:04 pm »

I'm not sure if that's scummy or not, but I do want him to answer my question. Being ignored is saddening
it's scummy.

I also include all of my previous reasoning for voting seprix with that vote, btw.
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mail-mi

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Re: M85: Olympics Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #388 on: August 24, 2016, 04:04:51 pm »

Time for a reads list!!

1. silverspawn--was acting weird. Still haven't figured out why, could be scummy. Wouldn't be unhappy with a lynch.
2. Calamitas--townier than ss, but still wouldn't be unhappy with a lynch. would prefer not to lynch today though because newbie.
3. Seprix--preferred lynch
4. Roadrunner7671--As stated above, isn't as bad as I thought he was. Would hesitantly vote for him.
5. Iguanaiguana--town
6. Mail-mi--IC
7. SpaceAnemone--newbie, and town. Would not lynch.
8. LaLight--despite what others have said, i think he's genuine town. Would only lynch if it's the only possible option
9. Joseph2302--eh, null. would lynch if necessary.

So, a scum to chum list. (does nobody call it that anymore? if so, that's sad.)

Seprix
silverspawn/joseph
Calamitas
RR
Lalight
iguana
Spaceanenome
mail-mi
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'And what is it that ye shall hope for? Behold I say unto you that ye shall have hope through the atonement of Christ and the power of his resurrection, to be raised unto life eternal, and this because of your faith in him according to the promise." - Moroni 7:41, the Book of Mormon

Roadrunner7671

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Re: M85: Olympics Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #389 on: August 24, 2016, 04:07:18 pm »

Ther is a 2 in 9 chance that a person is scum. Hooray for math.
2 in 8, assuming you're good.
I was talking about at the beginning of the game when gkrieg was assigning roles
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mail-mi

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Re: M85: Olympics Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #390 on: August 24, 2016, 04:25:06 pm »

Vote Count 1.5


iguanaiguana (2): Calamitas, Seprix
Seprix (2): LaLight, Joseph, mail-mi
Joseph2302 (2): silverspawn, SpaceAnemone

Not Voting (2): iguanaiguana, RoadRunner7671


With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.  Day 1 ends at noon on Thursday, August 25, less than 24 hours left

This is the current vote count. We're not really close to a lynch.

where is everyone? there's less than 24 hrs to deadline.
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'And what is it that ye shall hope for? Behold I say unto you that ye shall have hope through the atonement of Christ and the power of his resurrection, to be raised unto life eternal, and this because of your faith in him according to the promise." - Moroni 7:41, the Book of Mormon

Calamitas

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Re: M85: Olympics Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #391 on: August 24, 2016, 05:04:50 pm »

Sorry for my inactivity, was travelling all day (Summerholdidays hurray ;-)).
My current reads are (in decending order of scummyness):
 
Seprix: scummy; playing really strange throughout the game (including the L-1); would be happy with a lynch

La light: scummy; appeared to be town but overdid it lately which made the whole thing look forced. Also didn't contribute too much; would be happy with a lynch

Silver, Joseph: I have basically a nullread on them, in the case of silver because of his ridiculous behavior, in Josephs case because of his absence. I would agree with lynching them since it is probably better to lynch them instead of not lynching at all. However, I won't force it since they are definitely better targets out there (see above).

Iguana: Still find him suspicious l but it did cool up a bit after his recent reactions. However, that might have been just a clever way to escape pressure; A target that I could live with but I would prefer other ones today. We have to watch him closely though.

Space, road, mail: seem towny by now; definitely no target for day 1 lynch. We have to look how the flips turn out to get further their.
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Town (5/9): M85, RMM35, M87, NM9, M90RMM38, M92, M91, M102,
Scum (3/3): M84, M88, M100

MVPs (1): M84

Calamitas

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Re: M85: Olympics Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #392 on: August 24, 2016, 05:07:11 pm »

Sorry for my inactivity, was travelling all day (Summerholdidays hurray ;-)).
My current reads are (in decending order of scummyness):
 
Seprix: scummy; playing really strange throughout the game (including the L-1); would be happy with a lynch

La light: scummy; appeared to be town but overdid it lately which made the whole thing look forced. Also didn't contribute too much; would be happy with a lynch

Silver, Joseph: I have basically a nullread on them, in the case of silver because of his ridiculous behavior, in Josephs case because of his absence. I would agree with lynching them since it is probably better to lynch them instead of not lynching at all. However, I won't force it since they are definitely better targets out there (see above).

Iguana: Still find him suspicious l but it did cool up a bit after his recent reactions. However, that might have been just a clever way to escape pressure; A target that I could live with but I would prefer other ones today. We have to watch him closely though.

Space, road, mail: seem towny by now; definitely no target for day 1 lynch. We have to look how the flips turn out to get further their.
Sorry, the order of Seprix and lalight should be the other way around.
vote: LaLight
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Town (5/9): M85, RMM35, M87, NM9, M90RMM38, M92, M91, M102,
Scum (3/3): M84, M88, M100

MVPs (1): M84

iguanaiguana

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Re: M85: Olympics Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #393 on: August 24, 2016, 05:25:15 pm »

Want to lynch:

Maybe Roadrunner, maybe Mail-mi, maybe Calamitas, maybe Joseph. If there isn't scum in at least one of those, I'm doing it wrong. 

Don't want to lynch:

Seprix, LaLight, silverspawn, SpaceAnenome. If both scum are in those four, good job scum, & I suck.

Vote: Joseph2302

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Point iguana. Not that points really matter with a result, but still.
Igu is town or trying the hardest he ever has as scum.

LaLight

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Re: M85: Olympics Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #394 on: August 24, 2016, 05:25:41 pm »

well, I think i screwed up somehow. don't wanna be lynched. Will you take for the account that i was at first shy cause i don't know any of you and at second somehow embarrassed by my lack of level in english so i tried to make you not to judge me harshly? I see now where I was wrong.

My first and main idea was to see D1 what is happening. I an forced to write posts, so when I didn't know what to write, I've written same things with different words. If you lynch me, reread this post =)

So my thoughts:

1)Silver: Scummy, the scummiest one so far.
2)Mail-mi: seems scummy too, because of little amount of posts mostly
3)RR: Null, nothing to say so far
4)SpaceAnemone: null
5)Calamitas: Slightly scummy but I have doubts
6)Joseph: Looks like town
7)Iguana: Town i thought, town i think
8)Seprix: More scummy than town, wrote about my moteves before
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Losses: 11, 5, 1
Draws: 1
MVPs: 4
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Re: M85: Olympics Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #395 on: August 24, 2016, 05:53:33 pm »

I have no guarantee of any availability before the deadline.

I like my vote where it is right now.
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Scum: 5 games, 3 wins

Calamitas

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Re: M85: Olympics Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #396 on: August 24, 2016, 05:55:46 pm »

Vote Count 1.5


iguanaiguana (2): Calamitas, Seprix
Seprix (2): LaLight, Joseph, mail-mi
Joseph2302 (2): silverspawn, SpaceAnemone

Not Voting (2): iguanaiguana, RoadRunner7671


With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.  Day 1 ends at noon on Thursday, August 25, less than 24 hours left

This is the current vote count. We're not really close to a lynch.

where is everyone? there's less than 24 hrs to deadline.
If you update a vote count in a quote, please do it more carefuly. Actually there are 3 votes on Seprix, not 2.
In respect to the deadline, I will change my vote from LaLight to Seprix since no one except me is voting currently on LaLight.

vote: Seprix putting him on L-1
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Town (5/9): M85, RMM35, M87, NM9, M90RMM38, M92, M91, M102,
Scum (3/3): M84, M88, M100

MVPs (1): M84

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Re: M85: Olympics Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #397 on: August 24, 2016, 06:24:42 pm »

Vote Count 1.5


iguanaiguana (2): Calamitas, Seprix
Seprix (2): LaLight, Joseph, mail-mi
Joseph2302 (2): silverspawn, SpaceAnemone

Not Voting (2): iguanaiguana, RoadRunner7671


With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.  Day 1 ends at noon on Thursday, August 25, less than 24 hours left

This is the current vote count. We're not really close to a lynch.

where is everyone? there's less than 24 hrs to deadline.
If you update a vote count in a quote, please do it more carefuly. Actually there are 3 votes on Seprix, not 2.
In respect to the deadline, I will change my vote from LaLight to Seprix since no one except me is voting currently on LaLight.

vote: Seprix putting him on L-1

Oh, oops. I moved my name, but forgot to edit the number.
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'And what is it that ye shall hope for? Behold I say unto you that ye shall have hope through the atonement of Christ and the power of his resurrection, to be raised unto life eternal, and this because of your faith in him according to the promise." - Moroni 7:41, the Book of Mormon

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Re: M85: Olympics Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #398 on: August 24, 2016, 06:39:40 pm »

I don't think Seprix pretends to suspect me of buddying him as scum. I think he just welcomes it. I really think Seprix is town.

Joseph is a better shot, but really, they could both be town. These wagons are not great.
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Point iguana. Not that points really matter with a result, but still.
Igu is town or trying the hardest he ever has as scum.

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Re: M85: Olympics Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #399 on: August 24, 2016, 06:42:28 pm »

I don't think Seprix pretends to suspect me of buddying him as scum. I think he just welcomes it. I really think Seprix is town.

Joseph is a better shot, but really, they could both be town. These wagons are not great.

Where does seprix say he suspects you of buddying?
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I currently imagine mail-mi wearing a dark trenchcoat and a bowler hat, hunched over a bit, toothpick in his mouth, holding a gun in his pocket.  One bead of sweat trickling down his nose.

'And what is it that ye shall hope for? Behold I say unto you that ye shall have hope through the atonement of Christ and the power of his resurrection, to be raised unto life eternal, and this because of your faith in him according to the promise." - Moroni 7:41, the Book of Mormon
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