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Author Topic: M85: Olympics Mafia (Game Over!)  (Read 113356 times)

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SpaceAnemone

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Re: M85: Olympics Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #350 on: August 24, 2016, 12:13:39 pm »

Harrrumph! It's more than 7 hours since my last post, less than 24 hours from the deadline, and none of you is saying anything...

You're all Scummy McScumfaces :-(
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Joseph2302

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Re: M85: Olympics Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #351 on: August 24, 2016, 01:07:09 pm »

got my eye on lalight and Joseph
Agreeing with lalight, his attempts to appear unexperienced and innocent seem to be kind of forced (especially that last one). Cannot speak of Joseph, we just don't have enough data due to his (forced) inactivity.

Yeah, as I'd said before, I'd believe a LaLight-Joseph team much more than Silver's original Calamitas-Joseph call. Though I'm still not all that comfortable with Silver right now..
LaLight-Joseph? How?
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Joseph2302

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Re: M85: Olympics Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #352 on: August 24, 2016, 01:18:35 pm »

My reads/lynch options:

1. silverspawn - null read, could lynch
2. Calamitas - seems towny + newbie pass
3. Seprix - never seems towny to me, could definitely lynch
4. Roadrunner7671 - ditto, although I prefer Seprix > RR
5. Iguanaiguana - seems kind of towny
6. Mail-mi - null read, could lynch
7. SpaceAnemone - mild town read + newbie pass
8. LaLight - null read but newbie pass
9. Joseph2302 - town for sure
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Joseph2302

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Re: M85: Olympics Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #353 on: August 24, 2016, 01:20:20 pm »

And I believe we should let newbies pass D1 without lynching, because they're more likely to screw up later as scum, and also it encourages them to play more.

Either way, the maths says there's most likely 1 newbie!scum and 2 non-newbie!scum, so if that's the case then we're increasing our odds of getting scum from 3/8 to 2/5 (from my perspective, as I'm town).
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silverspawn

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Re: M85: Olympics Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #354 on: August 24, 2016, 01:23:56 pm »

cool.

Let's lynch Joseph.

Joseph2302

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Re: M85: Olympics Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #355 on: August 24, 2016, 01:24:16 pm »

Wait, there's only 2 scum in 9.
Maths check needed......

PPE: 1
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Joseph2302

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Re: M85: Olympics Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #356 on: August 24, 2016, 01:26:30 pm »

So maths (assuming I'm good):

Probability that both scum are new: 3/8 x 2/7 = 6/56 = 3/28
Probability that both scum aren't new: 5/8 x 4/7 = 20/56 = 10/28
So probability we have 1 newbie!scum, and 1 non-newbie!scum is 15/28.
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silverspawn

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Re: M85: Olympics Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #357 on: August 24, 2016, 01:27:47 pm »

And this is relevant because?

You know I'm the biggest defender of maths when it is. But I don't see how those mean anything for whom we should lynch.

Joseph2302

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Re: M85: Olympics Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #358 on: August 24, 2016, 01:28:08 pm »

In that case, if we have 1 newbie!scum and 1 non-newbie!scum, then we're marginally reducing our odds of finding scum from 2/8 to 1/5.

That's 5%, but worth it I think- especially as I think 2 of the newbies are towny enough.

PPE: 1
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Joseph2302

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Re: M85: Olympics Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #359 on: August 24, 2016, 01:28:53 pm »

And this is relevant because?

You know I'm the biggest defender of maths when it is. But I don't see how those mean anything for whom we should lynch.
See my PPE comment.
Trying to work out if ruling any newbies is a good idea or not.
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silverspawn

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Re: M85: Olympics Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #360 on: August 24, 2016, 01:31:51 pm »

You are either trying to deflect from something or you are confused about some things.

All you're doing is laying groups over players, putting them into sets, and then doing maths with those. But the probability for each player is already fixed. None of that calculating changes this probability, so it seems pointless.

silverspawn

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Re: M85: Olympics Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #361 on: August 24, 2016, 01:35:33 pm »

Show me a single post where you tried to figure out someone's alignment.

I'm not sure if you even have a post that is about someone's alignment.

What kind of town game are you playing?

Joseph2302

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Re: M85: Olympics Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #362 on: August 24, 2016, 01:36:12 pm »

So if we don't lynch the 3 newbies, our chance of hitting scum is (assuming I'm good):

(3/28 x 0) + (10/28 x 2/6) + (15/28 x 1/5) = 0 + 10/84 + 3/28 = 19/84 ~ 22.6% I believe.
If we don't exclude the newbies, our chance is 2/8 = 25%.

So it does narrow our odds.
On the other hand, I think Calamitas & Space are towny enough.

PPE: 2
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Joseph2302

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Re: M85: Olympics Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #363 on: August 24, 2016, 01:37:22 pm »

Show me a single post where you tried to figure out someone's alignment.

I'm not sure if you even have a post that is about someone's alignment.

What kind of town game are you playing?
I'm playing a confused one, with a confused amount of maths in it.

But I think Calamitas & Space seem towny to me- they've been active and lots of the stuff they've been saying has been towny.
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Joseph2302

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Re: M85: Olympics Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #364 on: August 24, 2016, 01:38:05 pm »

Although if I assume they're town, then that changes all my maths.

Guess I'll have to recalculate it.
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Joseph2302

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Re: M85: Olympics Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #365 on: August 24, 2016, 01:38:22 pm »

That was a joke btw.
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silverspawn

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Re: M85: Olympics Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #366 on: August 24, 2016, 01:41:27 pm »

So if we don't lynch the 3 newbies, our chance of hitting scum is (assuming I'm good):

(3/28 x 0) + (10/28 x 2/6) + (15/28 x 1/5) = 0 + 10/84 + 3/28 = 19/84 ~ 22.6% I believe.
If we don't exclude the newbies, our chance is 2/8 = 25%.

So it does narrow our odds.
On the other hand, I think Calamitas & Space are towny enough.

I refuse to even follow your maths. It is absolutely 100% impossible that the odds of 2/9 for every person change based on putting them into sets. Maths doesn't work that way! You can't change your results without information that is alignment indicative. And you didn't include information that is alignment indicative!

Quote
(assuming I'm good)

Without following... this is probably the reason why you get different results (assuming you didn't make other mistakes). Obviously, if you assume this then the larger group yields better results because the larger group has a smaller chance of hitting the IC.

But since we can't assume this it isn't useful for anyone else.

Joseph2302

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Re: M85: Olympics Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #367 on: August 24, 2016, 01:45:27 pm »

Post counts:

Me 32
ss 50
Calamitas 35
Seprix 35
RR 51
ii 36
mail-mi 24
SpaceAnemone 43
LaLight 25

Well, that have me not a lot of info.
ii more active than recently, but nothing else to get from those counts.
No extreme lurkers though, which is good.

PPE: 1
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silverspawn

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Re: M85: Olympics Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #368 on: August 24, 2016, 01:46:17 pm »

post

silverspawn

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Re: M85: Olympics Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #369 on: August 24, 2016, 01:46:29 pm »

and #1  :D

Joseph2302

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Re: M85: Olympics Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #370 on: August 24, 2016, 01:46:50 pm »

So if we don't lynch the 3 newbies, our chance of hitting scum is (assuming I'm good):

(3/28 x 0) + (10/28 x 2/6) + (15/28 x 1/5) = 0 + 10/84 + 3/28 = 19/84 ~ 22.6% I believe.
If we don't exclude the newbies, our chance is 2/8 = 25%.

So it does narrow our odds.
On the other hand, I think Calamitas & Space are towny enough.

I refuse to even follow your maths. It is absolutely 100% impossible that the odds of 2/9 for every person change based on putting them into sets. Maths doesn't work that way! You can't change your results without information that is alignment indicative. And you didn't include information that is alignment indicative!

Quote
(assuming I'm good)

Without following... this is probably the reason why you get different results (assuming you didn't make other mistakes). Obviously, if you assume this then the larger group yields better results because the larger group has a smaller chance of hitting the IC.

But since we can't assume this it isn't useful for anyone else.
Yh, I'm pretty sure the maths is plain wrong.
Also, I calculated as 2/8, as it assumed I was good (who wouldn't assume that they're good?)

PPE: 2
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silverspawn

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Re: M85: Olympics Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #371 on: August 24, 2016, 01:48:29 pm »

well don't bother correcting it, please. The best mathematician in the world can't calculate odds that are different from 2/9

SpaceAnemone

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Re: M85: Olympics Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #372 on: August 24, 2016, 01:51:08 pm »

I refuse to even follow your maths. It is absolutely 100% impossible that the odds of 2/9 for every person change based on putting them into sets.

He's just following through the numbers I posted yesterday about the chance of at least one of the scumteam being a newbie. It's an absolutely valid thing to consider given that he's proposing giving all three of us a D1 pass.

Calamitas was also right about the fun part coming when the inference begins. It's not ridiculously hard, though human beans aren't very good Bayesians naturally. Apparently reasoning in chickens has been shown to be much more Bayesian, though annoyingly I can't find the right citation for that just now. I'm sure it would have added lots to our conversation :-)

PPE: 5
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Re: M85: Olympics Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #373 on: August 24, 2016, 01:58:53 pm »

Vote Count 1.5


iguanaiguana (2): Calamitas, Seprix
Seprix (2): LaLight, Joseph
Joseph2302 (2): silverspawn, SpaceAnemone
RoadRunner7671 (1): mail-mi

Not Voting (2): iguanaiguana, RoadRunner7671


With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.  Day 1 ends at noon on Thursday, August 25, less than 24 hours left
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SpaceAnemone

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Re: M85: Olympics Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #374 on: August 24, 2016, 02:14:21 pm »

Yeah, as I'd said before, I'd believe a LaLight-Joseph team much more than Silver's original Calamitas-Joseph call. Though I'm still not all that comfortable with Silver right now..
LaLight-Joseph? How?

By picking two players I'm suspicious of and sticking a hyphen in between their names, pretty much.

Other players I think are moderately suspicious are Silver and Mail-mi. Iguana has migrated to a bit of a null. I'm leaning town on the other three, so I would probably oppose a lynch on them without some really juicy new evidence.
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