And my current tentative reads are:
Won't lynch D1:
Calamitas
ii
Most other new players (newbie pass)
Most likely to lynch:
Seprix
RR
PPE: 1
I think with 3/9 players being newbies, that might be too many for you guys not to consider us. Naively (i.e. with me deliberately including myself for the purposes of an explanation) there's a 7/12 chance that the scum team has one or more newbies in it.. that's more than 58%. (36 ways of picking a unique pair from 9, and only 15 of those ways give no newbies in the pair, since there are 6 non-newbies and it's 0.5*n*(n-1)).
From the perspective of an experienced player who also knows themself to be town, it's even more likely that the scumteam has newbies, with a 64% chance. Even if you also believe I'm town, it's still just over 50%. Of course with me town, the only possible all-newbie team is Calamitas-LaLight, so it's very likely (over 90%) that even in the case of there being a newbie on the scumteam, there's also a non-newbie on the team for us to kill D1. But I feel like a scum newbie might be easier to catch with greater confidence, so it's just not something I want to rule out.
Sorry if it's vaguely scummy to post stats that allow you to consider the possibility I could be scum when obviously I'm not, but I wanted the numbers to to more of the talking :-)