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Author Topic: M85: Olympics Mafia (Game Over!)  (Read 113362 times)

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gkrieg13

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Re: M85: Olympics Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #300 on: August 23, 2016, 12:16:52 pm »

Vote Count 1.4


iguanaiguana (1): Calamitas
Calamitas (1): iguanaiguana
Seprix (3): mail-mi, LaLight, Joseph
Joseph2302 (2): silverspawn, SpaceAnemone

Not Voting (2): Seprix, RoadRunner7671


With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.  Day 1 ends at noon on Thursday, August 25, less than 48 hours left
« Last Edit: August 23, 2016, 03:24:17 pm by gkrieg13 »
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Calamitas

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Re: M85: Olympics Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #301 on: August 23, 2016, 12:28:59 pm »

Roadrunner, since you are currently not voting, what are your thoughts on Seprix and Jospeh which currently hold the most votes? I personally think that Seprix is the more suspicious one (for various reasons that I have outlined before) but Josephs inactivity certainly doesn't speak for him.
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Town (5/9): M85, RMM35, M87, NM9, M90RMM38, M92, M91, M102,
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Re: M85: Olympics Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #302 on: August 23, 2016, 01:44:05 pm »

Having a crazy week, sorry.
Will try to post something useful today or tomorrow.
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LaLight

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Re: M85: Olympics Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #303 on: August 23, 2016, 03:08:00 pm »

Vote Count 1.4


iguanaiguana (1): Calamitas
Calamitas (1): iguanaiguana
Seprix (3): mail-mi, LaLight, Joseph
Joseph2302 (2): silverspawn, SpaceAnemone

Not Voting (3[/s2]):
Seprix, RoadRunner7671 [/color][/color]

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.  Day 1 ends at noon on Thursday, August 25, less than 48 hours left

FTFY =)
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LaLight

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Re: M85: Olympics Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #304 on: August 23, 2016, 03:08:46 pm »

Vote Count 1.4


iguanaiguana (1): Calamitas
Calamitas (1): iguanaiguana
Seprix (3): mail-mi, LaLight, Joseph
Joseph2302 (2): silverspawn, SpaceAnemone

Not Voting (32): Seprix, RoadRunner7671


With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.  Day 1 ends at noon on Thursday, August 25, less than 48 hours left

FTFY =)

Oh, I can't modify messages.
FTFME
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gkrieg13

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Re: M85: Olympics Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #305 on: August 23, 2016, 03:24:35 pm »

Vote Count 1.4


iguanaiguana (1): Calamitas
Calamitas (1): iguanaiguana
Seprix (3): mail-mi, LaLight, Joseph
Joseph2302 (2): silverspawn, SpaceAnemone

Not Voting (32): Seprix, RoadRunner7671


With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.  Day 1 ends at noon on Thursday, August 25, less than 48 hours left

FTFY =)

Oh, I can't modify messages.
FTFME

Oh but I can
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iguanaiguana

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Re: M85: Olympics Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #306 on: August 23, 2016, 04:03:17 pm »

Don't forget that seven of us are town, everyone. From each townie's perspective, there are 6 other town players, and 2 scum, so 1/4 chance that each other player could be scum right now. Lots of people are jumping around with their votes and being easily swayed by arguments. Some of those arguments are good and some are not.

Read each player. Look for a town motivation in their posts. D1 is more about figuring out who is likely to be town, because we don't have any hard information at this stage to hold people up against. The later days will be telling, when it comes to analyzing who votes for whom after people flip.

Maybe I just said a lot of nothing, but these comments felt like they needed mentioning to me.

I could vote for Joseph, but I'm not going to right now, with him saying that he'll post more content in the near future. I think the votes on Seprix are bad, and I've already given reasons for that. If Seprix is scum, he'll be easy enough to catch on D3. No need to lynch him on D1 with a 25% success rate.
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Point iguana. Not that points really matter with a result, but still.
Igu is town or trying the hardest he ever has as scum.

iguanaiguana

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Re: M85: Olympics Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #307 on: August 23, 2016, 04:13:11 pm »

Probably its just "coincidence", but i kind of believe in the Seprix-iguana mafia by now. The interaction between those two is just weird. The following things have drawn my attention:

1. In #89 iguana reacts quite harshly to a post from Seprix
2. In #114 iguana attacks Seprix for his accusatiom of me
3. Suddenly iguana defends Seprix when he was accused (#161)

And now starts the more interesting part:

4. Seprix voting for iguana in #204 in a post containing "by the way". (I think that is supposed to make the post look more spontaneous, but does it over the top IMO)
5. Iguana naming the error and seprix correcting the mistake within the minute
6. Seprix claiming iguana is not a good lynch option
7. After me posting my thoughts in #262 Seprix and iguana have been more active than before (which for itself is understandable)
8. Within 7, iguana defended seprix again (#265) just to attack him a few posts later again (#269) which matches the pattern of number 1 respectively 3

IMO the behavior above is very weird either way. I cannot think of a regular explanation for all that kind of flip-flopping. However, if they would really form the mafia, wouldn't they be more careful since they are quite experienced?

For whatever it's worth, I think this is the towniest thing you've posted by far, because this legitimate-looking of an attempt at game solving is hard for scum to fake, especially on D1 of your first game online.

I do think the line of thinking is misguided. Scum players are hyper-conscious of what they say about each other and their interactions are usually a lot more subtle than those between myself and Seprix. We would need to be an incredibly bold scumteam to openly defend each other like we have been. Of course, that would make an interesting gambit, but I doubt it would pay off.

The simpler and much more likely explanation is that I have a townread on Seprix, and he's come around on me as well. From my perspective, that's the only possiblity unless I am wrong about Seprix and he is scum.

I've gotten scum teams like this stuck in my head before, so I guess I'll just say, if you are town, it's probably best to try to shake it. Getting an idea of who is scum stuck in your head is almost always detrimental early in the game, as whatever you are thinking is much more likely to be wrong than correct.

Anyway, I've been thinking about this post and the general tone of your posts so far and I think I may be wrong about you.

Unvote

I'm not sure who to vote for at this time.
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Point iguana. Not that points really matter with a result, but still.
Igu is town or trying the hardest he ever has as scum.

Seprix

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Re: M85: Olympics Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #308 on: August 23, 2016, 04:19:36 pm »

vote: Iguana
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Calamitas

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Re: M85: Olympics Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #309 on: August 23, 2016, 04:24:38 pm »

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Town (5/9): M85, RMM35, M87, NM9, M90RMM38, M92, M91, M102,
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MVPs (1): M84

Roadrunner7671

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Re: M85: Olympics Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #310 on: August 23, 2016, 04:50:36 pm »

Roadrunner, since you are currently not voting, what are your thoughts on Seprix and Jospeh which currently hold the most votes? I personally think that Seprix is the more suspicious one (for various reasons that I have outlined before) but Josephs inactivity certainly doesn't speak for him.
It's nice to have people who want to hear my opinion <3

But I'd say both Seprix and Joseph are in my lynch pool, along with iguanaiguana. If I had to give them a suspicious rating I'd say Seprix is the most suspicious, then Iguanaiguana then Joseph.

Actually:
Seprix gets a 7.5 out of 10
Iguanaiguana gets a 5.9 out of 10
Joseph gets a 5.5 out of 10.

Or something like that. But there's a much bigger gap between Seprix and Iguanaiguana then there is between Iguanaiguana and Joseph.

The problem with Seprix and Joseph is that they're hard to read, so lynching them is more of a toss up than it would be between other players. That's a double edged sword though, because their reads are usually a bit off, so they're still not the worst lynch. I don't want to jump on a wagon before I get off a mobile device. A reread is required before voting
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SpaceAnemone

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Re: M85: Olympics Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #311 on: August 23, 2016, 04:55:24 pm »

vote: Iguana

Huh.. just as I was starting to get a reasonable level of town vibe from him, too.
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Town games: M84(L), M85(W), M86(L), M87(W), M88(L), M90(L), M92(W), M94(L), M97(L), M99(W), M100(L), M104(W), M107(W), M110(L), M112(L), RMM37(L), RMM40(D), RMM41(L), RMM43(L), RMM47(W), ZM23(W).
Scum games: M89(D), M108(L), NM8(W&MVP), NM10(L)   Mod: NM9, RMM38, RMM42.   Pronouns: they/them

Roadrunner7671

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Re: M85: Olympics Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #312 on: August 23, 2016, 04:55:55 pm »

vote: Iguana

Huh.. just as I was starting to get a reasonable level of town vibe from him, too.
'Him' being Seprix or Iguanaiguana?
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Seprix

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Re: M85: Olympics Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #313 on: August 23, 2016, 05:05:23 pm »

vote: Iguana

Huh.. just as I was starting to get a reasonable level of town vibe from him, too.
'Him' being Seprix or Iguanaiguana?

Obviously me. I'm almost certain Iguana is scum now.
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Re: M85: Olympics Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #314 on: August 23, 2016, 05:06:01 pm »

vote: Iguana

Huh.. just as I was starting to get a reasonable level of town vibe from him, too.

Oops.. yeah, pronouns can be so problematic! :-P

I was just coming round to the idea that Iguana was being towny, having scum-read him pretty early and having had my vote on him for most of the game-day so far.

I still feel like Seprix is just a grumpy townie; that's been a more or less constant read from me. Maybe I'm trying too hard to overcome my cognitive bias from his grumpy-looking avatar or something.
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Town games: M84(L), M85(W), M86(L), M87(W), M88(L), M90(L), M92(W), M94(L), M97(L), M99(W), M100(L), M104(W), M107(W), M110(L), M112(L), RMM37(L), RMM40(D), RMM41(L), RMM43(L), RMM47(W), ZM23(W).
Scum games: M89(D), M108(L), NM8(W&MVP), NM10(L)   Mod: NM9, RMM38, RMM42.   Pronouns: they/them

Roadrunner7671

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Re: M85: Olympics Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #315 on: August 23, 2016, 05:06:10 pm »

vote: Iguana

Huh.. just as I was starting to get a reasonable level of town vibe from him, too.
'Him' being Seprix or Iguanaiguana?

Obviously me. I'm almost certain Iguana is scum now.
Scale of 1 to 10. ! is IC. 5 is null. 10 is confirmed scum.

How certain are you?
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Seprix

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Re: M85: Olympics Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #316 on: August 23, 2016, 05:08:01 pm »

vote: Iguana

Huh.. just as I was starting to get a reasonable level of town vibe from him, too.

Oops.. yeah, pronouns can be so problematic! :-P

I was just coming round to the idea that Iguana was being towny, having scum-read him pretty early and having had my vote on him for most of the game-day so far.

I still feel like Seprix is just a grumpy townie; that's been a more or less constant read from me. Maybe I'm trying too hard to overcome my cognitive bias from his grumpy-looking avatar or something.

I can change my avatar back to happy Peasant if you'd like.
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Joseph2302

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Re: M85: Olympics Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #317 on: August 23, 2016, 05:08:17 pm »

Probably its just "coincidence", but i kind of believe in the Seprix-iguana mafia by now. The interaction between those two is just weird. The following things have drawn my attention:

1. In #89 iguana reacts quite harshly to a post from Seprix
2. In #114 iguana attacks Seprix for his accusatiom of me
3. Suddenly iguana defends Seprix when he was accused (#161)

And now starts the more interesting part:

4. Seprix voting for iguana in #204 in a post containing "by the way". (I think that is supposed to make the post look more spontaneous, but does it over the top IMO)
5. Iguana naming the error and seprix correcting the mistake within the minute
6. Seprix claiming iguana is not a good lynch option
7. After me posting my thoughts in #262 Seprix and iguana have been more active than before (which for itself is understandable)
8. Within 7, iguana defended seprix again (#265) just to attack him a few posts later again (#269) which matches the pattern of number 1 respectively 3

IMO the behavior above is very weird either way. I cannot think of a regular explanation for all that kind of flip-flopping. However, if they would really form the mafia, wouldn't they be more careful since they are quite experienced?

For whatever it's worth, I think this is the towniest thing you've posted by far, because this legitimate-looking of an attempt at game solving is hard for scum to fake, especially on D1 of your first game online.

I do think the line of thinking is misguided. Scum players are hyper-conscious of what they say about each other and their interactions are usually a lot more subtle than those between myself and Seprix. We would need to be an incredibly bold scumteam to openly defend each other like we have been. Of course, that would make an interesting gambit, but I doubt it would pay off.

The simpler and much more likely explanation is that I have a townread on Seprix, and he's come around on me as well. From my perspective, that's the only possiblity unless I am wrong about Seprix and he is scum.

I've gotten scum teams like this stuck in my head before, so I guess I'll just say, if you are town, it's probably best to try to shake it. Getting an idea of who is scum stuck in your head is almost always detrimental early in the game, as whatever you are thinking is much more likely to be wrong than correct.

Anyway, I've been thinking about this post and the general tone of your posts so far and I think I may be wrong about you.

Unvote

I'm not sure who to vote for at this time.
I'm happy enough to not lynch Calamitas.
Per the above, big long posts on D1 as scum on your first online game would be incredibly risky, so probably town.
Also, lots of posting = good, so we should be encouraging it.

PPE: 1
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Town: 22 games, 8 wins
Scum: 5 games, 3 wins

iguanaiguana

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Re: M85: Olympics Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #318 on: August 23, 2016, 05:19:11 pm »

Roadrunner, since you are currently not voting, what are your thoughts on Seprix and Jospeh which currently hold the most votes? I personally think that Seprix is the more suspicious one (for various reasons that I have outlined before) but Josephs inactivity certainly doesn't speak for him.
It's nice to have people who want to hear my opinion <3

But I'd say both Seprix and Joseph are in my lynch pool, along with iguanaiguana. If I had to give them a suspicious rating I'd say Seprix is the most suspicious, then Iguanaiguana then Joseph.

Actually:
Seprix gets a 7.5 out of 10
Iguanaiguana gets a 5.9 out of 10
Joseph gets a 5.5 out of 10.

Or something like that. But there's a much bigger gap between Seprix and Iguanaiguana then there is between Iguanaiguana and Joseph.

The problem with Seprix and Joseph is that they're hard to read, so lynching them is more of a toss up than it would be between other players. That's a double edged sword though, because their reads are usually a bit off, so they're still not the worst lynch. I don't want to jump on a wagon before I get off a mobile device. A reread is required before voting

You read me better than anyone. You should know that I am town.
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Point iguana. Not that points really matter with a result, but still.
Igu is town or trying the hardest he ever has as scum.

Roadrunner7671

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Re: M85: Olympics Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #319 on: August 23, 2016, 05:21:51 pm »

Roadrunner, since you are currently not voting, what are your thoughts on Seprix and Jospeh which currently hold the most votes? I personally think that Seprix is the more suspicious one (for various reasons that I have outlined before) but Josephs inactivity certainly doesn't speak for him.
It's nice to have people who want to hear my opinion <3

But I'd say both Seprix and Joseph are in my lynch pool, along with iguanaiguana. If I had to give them a suspicious rating I'd say Seprix is the most suspicious, then Iguanaiguana then Joseph.

Actually:
Seprix gets a 7.5 out of 10
Iguanaiguana gets a 5.9 out of 10
Joseph gets a 5.5 out of 10.

Or something like that. But there's a much bigger gap between Seprix and Iguanaiguana then there is between Iguanaiguana and Joseph.

The problem with Seprix and Joseph is that they're hard to read, so lynching them is more of a toss up than it would be between other players. That's a double edged sword though, because their reads are usually a bit off, so they're still not the worst lynch. I don't want to jump on a wagon before I get off a mobile device. A reread is required before voting

You read me better than anyone. You should know that I am town.
I don't think I read you that well! I probably read you better than I read most people but Faust, silverspawn, Ashersky, etc can probably all read you better
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iguanaiguana

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Re: M85: Olympics Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #320 on: August 23, 2016, 05:22:04 pm »

vote: Iguana

Huh.. just as I was starting to get a reasonable level of town vibe from him, too.
'Him' being Seprix or Iguanaiguana?

Obviously me. I'm almost certain Iguana is scum now.

I'm not 100% on Seprix' thought process, but I believe it goes something like this:

A) Iguana sure seems different than the last few games. I don't like that.
B) He's trying to direct the players and guide them! Therefore, he must be manipulating them!

It is sad to me that in games where I don't try, I live through the whole game, scum or town, and in games where I put in effort I get lynched. It does not speak well of our site meta.
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Point iguana. Not that points really matter with a result, but still.
Igu is town or trying the hardest he ever has as scum.

Roadrunner7671

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Re: M85: Olympics Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #321 on: August 23, 2016, 05:22:33 pm »

I don't want to lynch you today, but you are sort of scummy to me and lynching you wouldn't be the worst thing ever
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Re: M85: Olympics Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #322 on: August 23, 2016, 05:22:48 pm »

vote: Iguana

Huh.. just as I was starting to get a reasonable level of town vibe from him, too.

Oops.. yeah, pronouns can be so problematic! :-P

I was just coming round to the idea that Iguana was being towny, having scum-read him pretty early and having had my vote on him for most of the game-day so far.

I still feel like Seprix is just a grumpy townie; that's been a more or less constant read from me. Maybe I'm trying too hard to overcome my cognitive bias from his grumpy-looking avatar or something.

I can change my avatar back to happy Peasant if you'd like.

I could probably read lots into your continued adherence to a white masculine humanoid form...
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Town games: M84(L), M85(W), M86(L), M87(W), M88(L), M90(L), M92(W), M94(L), M97(L), M99(W), M100(L), M104(W), M107(W), M110(L), M112(L), RMM37(L), RMM40(D), RMM41(L), RMM43(L), RMM47(W), ZM23(W).
Scum games: M89(D), M108(L), NM8(W&MVP), NM10(L)   Mod: NM9, RMM38, RMM42.   Pronouns: they/them

Roadrunner7671

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Re: M85: Olympics Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #323 on: August 23, 2016, 05:23:31 pm »

@Iguanaiguana you aren't gonna get lynched today!
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iguanaiguana

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Re: M85: Olympics Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #324 on: August 23, 2016, 05:23:57 pm »

Roadrunner, since you are currently not voting, what are your thoughts on Seprix and Jospeh which currently hold the most votes? I personally think that Seprix is the more suspicious one (for various reasons that I have outlined before) but Josephs inactivity certainly doesn't speak for him.
It's nice to have people who want to hear my opinion <3

But I'd say both Seprix and Joseph are in my lynch pool, along with iguanaiguana. If I had to give them a suspicious rating I'd say Seprix is the most suspicious, then Iguanaiguana then Joseph.

Actually:
Seprix gets a 7.5 out of 10
Iguanaiguana gets a 5.9 out of 10
Joseph gets a 5.5 out of 10.

Or something like that. But there's a much bigger gap between Seprix and Iguanaiguana then there is between Iguanaiguana and Joseph.

The problem with Seprix and Joseph is that they're hard to read, so lynching them is more of a toss up than it would be between other players. That's a double edged sword though, because their reads are usually a bit off, so they're still not the worst lynch. I don't want to jump on a wagon before I get off a mobile device. A reread is required before voting

You read me better than anyone. You should know that I am town.
I don't think I read you that well! I probably read you better than I read most people but Faust, silverspawn, Ashersky, etc can probably all read you better

silver reads me very well. Disagree on the other two. The only game where either Faust or Ash and me were both town was Harry Potter Mafia where I got lynched early on D1 and they were townies on the wagon.
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Point iguana. Not that points really matter with a result, but still.
Igu is town or trying the hardest he ever has as scum.
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