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Author Topic: M85: Olympics Mafia (Game Over!)  (Read 113418 times)

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SpaceAnemone

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Re: M85: Olympics Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #325 on: August 23, 2016, 05:36:15 pm »

Reading the set-up again, it looks like we're a small enough game that if there's no lynch consensus, we lose out on the chance to kill scum today. Does this stuff normally run right up to the deadline? I guess I haven't quite had the sense of urgency from just reading games so far...
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mail-mi

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Re: M85: Olympics Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #326 on: August 23, 2016, 05:40:56 pm »

Don't know what seprix and rr are talking about. Town points to iguana.

In fact, rr seems way too hedgey about it. Feels almost like putting in a back up scum read for a mislynch later. vote: rr

I'm having a hard time putting my thoughts into words. :P
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Roadrunner7671

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Re: M85: Olympics Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #327 on: August 23, 2016, 05:44:37 pm »

Reading the set-up again, it looks like we're a small enough game that if there's no lynch consensus, we lose out on the chance to kill scum today. Does this stuff normally run right up to the deadline? I guess I haven't quite had the sense of urgency from just reading games so far...
Trust me, sometimes it goes to the deadline and there are literally 100 posts in an hour. I forget what game that was but the forum crashed a few times for me. And we lynched Awaclus who was a really strong PR. I think I was a motivator. But I can't remember the game!
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Roadrunner7671

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Re: M85: Olympics Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #328 on: August 23, 2016, 05:45:19 pm »

I'm having a hard time putting my thoughts into words. :P
I'll wait to complain about you voting for me until you figure that out
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mail-mi

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Re: M85: Olympics Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #329 on: August 23, 2016, 05:47:13 pm »

I'm having a hard time putting my thoughts into words. :P
I'll wait to complain about you voting for me until you figure that out

I don't like your reaction to or read on iguanna and think it is scummy.

I tried to go into more detail above but it didn't really work.
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Roadrunner7671

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Re: M85: Olympics Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #330 on: August 23, 2016, 05:51:24 pm »

I'm having a hard time putting my thoughts into words. :P
I'll wait to complain about you voting for me until you figure that out

I don't like your reaction to or read on iguanna and think it is scummy.

I tried to go into more detail above but it didn't really work.
Mail-mi: 'I think iguanaiguna is town!'

Roadrunner: 'I'm not sure what iguanaiguana is!'

Mail-mi: 'HOW DARE YOU DISAGREE WITH ME!!!!! TO THE GALLOWS WITH YOU, INFIDEL!!!!!'
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Joseph2302

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Re: M85: Olympics Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #331 on: August 23, 2016, 05:51:49 pm »

Reading the set-up again, it looks like we're a small enough game that if there's no lynch consensus, we lose out on the chance to kill scum today. Does this stuff normally run right up to the deadline? I guess I haven't quite had the sense of urgency from just reading games so far...
Very often D1 does end up going to deadline, and getting a lynch sometimes from nowhere.
And lynching > mislynching almost always.
Even if we mislynch (which is statistically likely), it'll give us some information for D2.

PPE: 1?
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mail-mi

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Re: M85: Olympics Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #332 on: August 23, 2016, 05:53:14 pm »

I'm having a hard time putting my thoughts into words. :P
I'll wait to complain about you voting for me until you figure that out

I don't like your reaction to or read on iguanna and think it is scummy.

I tried to go into more detail above but it didn't really work.
Mail-mi: 'I think iguanaiguna is town!'

Roadrunner: 'I'm not sure what iguanaiguana is!'

Mail-mi: 'HOW DARE YOU DISAGREE WITH ME!!!!! TO THE GALLOWS WITH YOU, INFIDEL!!!!!'

Important bit you missed there bolded for your convenience.
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'And what is it that ye shall hope for? Behold I say unto you that ye shall have hope through the atonement of Christ and the power of his resurrection, to be raised unto life eternal, and this because of your faith in him according to the promise." - Moroni 7:41, the Book of Mormon

Joseph2302

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Re: M85: Olympics Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #333 on: August 23, 2016, 05:53:36 pm »

And my current tentative reads are:

Won't lynch D1:
Calamitas
ii
Most other new players (newbie pass)

Most likely to lynch:
Seprix
RR

PPE: 1
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Scum: 5 games, 3 wins

Roadrunner7671

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Re: M85: Olympics Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #334 on: August 23, 2016, 05:54:23 pm »

I'm having a hard time putting my thoughts into words. :P
I'll wait to complain about you voting for me until you figure that out

I don't like your reaction to or read on iguanna and think it is scummy.

I tried to go into more detail above but it didn't really work.
Mail-mi: 'I think iguanaiguna is town!'

Roadrunner: 'I'm not sure what iguanaiguana is! But I don't really want to lynch him for it, so I guess I'll just put him in my unsure group'

Mail-mi: 'HOW DARE YOU DISAGREE WITH ME!!!!! TO THE GALLOWS WITH YOU, INFIDEL!!!!!'



Important bit you missed there bolded for your convenience.
Thanks, fixed.
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SpaceAnemone

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Re: M85: Olympics Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #335 on: August 23, 2016, 05:58:18 pm »

Reading the set-up again, it looks like we're a small enough game that if there's no lynch consensus, we lose out on the chance to kill scum today. Does this stuff normally run right up to the deadline? I guess I haven't quite had the sense of urgency from just reading games so far...
Trust me, sometimes it goes to the deadline and there are literally 100 posts in an hour. I forget what game that was but the forum crashed a few times for me. And we lynched Awaclus who was a really strong PR. I think I was a motivator. But I can't remember the game!

That's inconvenient... I'm on a conference call for work in the exact hour leading up to the deadline. Can we work out who we're going to lynch early, so I can make sure my vote is on the right person when the final frenzy happens? ;-)
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Scum games: M89(D), M108(L), NM8(W&MVP), NM10(L)   Mod: NM9, RMM38, RMM42.   Pronouns: they/them

Roadrunner7671

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Re: M85: Olympics Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #336 on: August 23, 2016, 05:59:22 pm »

Reading the set-up again, it looks like we're a small enough game that if there's no lynch consensus, we lose out on the chance to kill scum today. Does this stuff normally run right up to the deadline? I guess I haven't quite had the sense of urgency from just reading games so far...
Trust me, sometimes it goes to the deadline and there are literally 100 posts in an hour. I forget what game that was but the forum crashed a few times for me. And we lynched Awaclus who was a really strong PR. I think I was a motivator. But I can't remember the game!

That's inconvenient... I'm on a conference call for work in the exact hour leading up to the deadline. Can we work out who we're going to lynch early, so I can make sure my vote is on the right person when the final frenzy happens? ;-)
Just put your vote on someone you want to lynch that you think other people might lynch and you should be good
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Joseph2302

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Re: M85: Olympics Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #337 on: August 23, 2016, 06:02:56 pm »

I'm also busy all day on deadline day.
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iguanaiguana

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Re: M85: Olympics Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #338 on: August 23, 2016, 06:15:44 pm »

And my current tentative reads are:

Won't lynch D1:
Calamitas
ii
Most other new players (newbie pass)

Most likely to lynch:
Seprix
RR

PPE: 1

Yeesh, how carefull have you thought about this?

Your lynch list is like a list of all the top most commonly mislynched players on F.ds, with the notable exception that it's missing you.
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Point iguana. Not that points really matter with a result, but still.
Igu is town or trying the hardest he ever has as scum.

mail-mi

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Re: M85: Olympics Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #339 on: August 23, 2016, 06:17:15 pm »

And my current tentative reads are:

Won't lynch D1:
Calamitas
ii
Most other new players (newbie pass)

Most likely to lynch:
Seprix
RR

PPE: 1

Yeesh, how carefull have you thought about this?

Your lynch list is like a list of all the top most commonly mislynched players on F.ds, with the notable exception that it's missing you.

And me!

RR: Why do you think iguana is kinda scummy?
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LaLight

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Re: M85: Olympics Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #340 on: August 23, 2016, 06:24:10 pm »

maaaan it's so hard. I need lots of experience.

I think on someone, then I read and then I think on someone else. Through the posts only things that I am sure in my head are that Iguana is unlikely scummy, Calamitas and Joseph are likely scummy. But when I think deep on every player, reading only his posts I find something scummy in everyone.

Well. I'll stick to Seprix, though I can see that other people say it's his style of game. Still my suspicions are on. And I don't like how Silverspawn became silent. Just like in the start he posted all the way, but then, when we started to think on other players, he just decided to wait for mislynch. Can it be possible? Whom can I trust? I'm alone in this dark city
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SpaceAnemone

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Re: M85: Olympics Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #341 on: August 23, 2016, 06:31:46 pm »

And my current tentative reads are:

Won't lynch D1:
Calamitas
ii
Most other new players (newbie pass)

Most likely to lynch:
Seprix
RR

PPE: 1

I think with 3/9 players being newbies, that might be too many for you guys not to consider us. Naively (i.e. with me deliberately including myself for the purposes of an explanation) there's a 7/12 chance that the scum team has one or more newbies in it.. that's more than 58%. (36 ways of picking a unique pair from 9, and only 15 of those ways give no newbies in the pair, since there are 6 non-newbies and it's 0.5*n*(n-1)).

From the perspective of an experienced player who also knows themself to be town, it's even more likely that the scumteam has newbies, with a 64% chance. Even if you also believe I'm town, it's still just over 50%. Of course with me town, the only possible all-newbie team is Calamitas-LaLight, so it's very likely (over 90%) that even in the case of there being a newbie on the scumteam, there's also a non-newbie on the team for us to kill D1. But I feel like a scum newbie might be easier to catch with greater confidence, so it's just not something I want to rule out.

Sorry if it's vaguely scummy to post stats that allow you to consider the possibility I could be scum when obviously I'm not, but I wanted the numbers to to more of the talking :-)
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Calamitas

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Re: M85: Olympics Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #342 on: August 23, 2016, 07:06:29 pm »

And my current tentative reads are:

Won't lynch D1:
Calamitas
ii
Most other new players (newbie pass)

Most likely to lynch:
Seprix
RR

PPE: 1

I think with 3/9 players being newbies, that might be too many for you guys not to consider us. Naively (i.e. with me deliberately including myself for the purposes of an explanation) there's a 7/12 chance that the scum team has one or more newbies in it.. that's more than 58%. (36 ways of picking a unique pair from 9, and only 15 of those ways give no newbies in the pair, since there are 6 non-newbies and it's 0.5*n*(n-1)).

From the perspective of an experienced player who also knows themself to be town, it's even more likely that the scumteam has newbies, with a 64% chance. Even if you also believe I'm town, it's still just over 50%. Of course with me town, the only possible all-newbie team is Calamitas-LaLight, so it's very likely (over 90%) that even in the case of there being a newbie on the scumteam, there's also a non-newbie on the team for us to kill D1. But I feel like a scum newbie might be easier to catch with greater confidence, so it's just not something I want to rule out.

Sorry if it's vaguely scummy to post stats that allow you to consider the possibility I could be scum when obviously I'm not, but I wanted the numbers to to more of the talking :-)
Luckily we could collect some evidence, I wish you great fun with updating the probabilities via Bayes Theorem ;-)
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silverspawn

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Re: M85: Olympics Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #343 on: August 23, 2016, 08:19:02 pm »

Reading the set-up again, it looks like we're a small enough game that if there's no lynch consensus, we lose out on the chance to kill scum today. Does this stuff normally run right up to the deadline? I guess I haven't quite had the sense of urgency from just reading games so far...
Trust me, sometimes it goes to the deadline and there are literally 100 posts in an hour. I forget what game that was but the forum crashed a few times for me. And we lynched Awaclus who was a really strong PR. I think I was a motivator. But I can't remember the game!

That's inconvenient... I'm on a conference call for work in the exact hour leading up to the deadline. Can we work out who we're going to lynch early, so I can make sure my vote is on the right person when the final frenzy happens? ;-)

those smileys

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Re: M85: Olympics Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #344 on: August 23, 2016, 08:25:11 pm »

smileys aside, though, I think you're solid town at this point. I'm also going to say RR is town based on tone in his numbers post but it's RR so confidence is low.

I'm the best at reading igauana. Obviously. And he's also town.

got my eye on lalight and Joseph

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Re: M85: Olympics Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #345 on: August 24, 2016, 04:27:51 am »

smileys aside, though, I think you're solid town at this point. I'm also going to say RR is town based on tone in his numbers post but it's RR so confidence is low.

I'm the best at reading igauana. Obviously. And he's also town.

got my eye on lalight and Joseph
Agreeing with lalight, his attempts to appear unexperienced and innocent seem to be kind of forced (especially that last one). Cannot speak of Joseph, we just don't have enough data due to his (forced) inactivity.
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Re: M85: Olympics Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #346 on: August 24, 2016, 04:40:06 am »

Luckily we could collect some evidence, I wish you great fun with updating the probabilities via Bayes Theorem ;-)

The story goes that Reverend Thomas Bayes invented his theorem originally so that he could put faith in god into his statistical reasoning...
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Re: M85: Olympics Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #347 on: August 24, 2016, 04:45:44 am »

those smileys

Makes a change from cheerful old Seprix at least, right? :-)

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Re: M85: Olympics Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #348 on: August 24, 2016, 04:47:52 am »

smileys aside, though, I think you're solid town at this point. I'm also going to say RR is town based on tone in his numbers post but it's RR so confidence is low.

I'm the best at reading igauana. Obviously. And he's also town.

got my eye on lalight and Joseph
Agreeing with lalight, his attempts to appear unexperienced and innocent seem to be kind of forced (especially that last one). Cannot speak of Joseph, we just don't have enough data due to his (forced) inactivity.

ok, rereading my post I see your point. I am not a scum, believe it or not. In D1 I try to figure out defferencies between mafia live and forum mafia, and I'm dashed by how many are there. That's what my previous post was about.
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Re: M85: Olympics Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #349 on: August 24, 2016, 04:51:18 am »

got my eye on lalight and Joseph
Agreeing with lalight, his attempts to appear unexperienced and innocent seem to be kind of forced (especially that last one). Cannot speak of Joseph, we just don't have enough data due to his (forced) inactivity.

Yeah, as I'd said before, I'd believe a LaLight-Joseph team much more than Silver's original Calamitas-Joseph call. Though I'm still not all that comfortable with Silver right now..
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Scum games: M89(D), M108(L), NM8(W&MVP), NM10(L)   Mod: NM9, RMM38, RMM42.   Pronouns: they/them
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