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JThorne

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Economy
« on: June 28, 2016, 12:59:49 pm »
+4

It occurs to me that "Economy" is a concept in Dominion that gets mentioned frequently in the context of many discussions and articles on the wiki, but it doesn't have its own wiki page.

I don't think I have the expertise to write such an article, but I thought I might throw the idea out there for discussion, partly because there are so many different ways to build your economy, and especially for beginner/intermediate players, it might be interesting to point out some things about economy that are worth thinking about. I'm going to pose these in the form of questions rather than authoritative statements, because, again, I'm not necessarily an expert; I just suspect that these are issues worth discussing:

-- Economy vs. Mechanics?

When building an engine (or even a BM deck) you're doing two different things. Buying parts that create coin, or parts that do things that are NOT creating coin (drawing, cycling, sifting, upgrading, trashing, etc.)

The timing of exactly when to buy one or the other is surprisingly tricky. Buy too many actions without economy, and you end up with a lot of cycling or drawing and routinely getting $4. Buy too much money without actions, and now you're building a BM deck that makes $10 with one buy when what you really want is to stock up on power-$5s. That said, when is a +buy card worth overbuying worth opening with? I was scolded in another thread for suggesting opening with Herbalist if it was the only +buy rather than paying $10 for it later. I didn't think about the implications of what it would mean to draw it in the next three shuffles for single-buys with $3 and $4 and $5 when it could have been a Silver buying $4 and $5 and $6. One half-wasted turn later is better than three half-wasted turns now. This is a general economy principle that can be applied to many cards (Herbalist, Candlestick Maker, Squire, etc.) and belongs somewhere other than the discussion on these individual cards. I don't think the "opportunity cost" page is quite sufficient.

Multi-trashers introduce even more complexity. You should trash aggressively with Chapel; when do you buy the Silver you'll need to build back up? When do you open Chapel/Silver vs. Chapel/Action? I know it "depends on the kingdom" but some statistical economy guidelines that can give people an idea of what to expect on their next shuffle would be good. For example, it might be nice to have some probability charts of opening buys, or post-chapel second shuffles with a buy, that show the odds of making $4 vs. $5, of getting terminal collision, etc. Probability charts for dice and hits make visualizing Backgammon strategies easier; I see the charts when I'm pondering what to do with a roll. Something similar could be helpful here. I know the cards are all different, but odds for deck size vs. terminal collision and coin/draw samples for economy analysis would be handy.

Are there some solid numbers/simulations that can give some ballpark "feel" for whether it's better to buy Silver, or terminal +coin, or a terminal +buy/+coin, and on what shuffles?

-- Types of economy?

The canonical engine building strategy article on the wiki states that if your engine payload is treasure, then you might as well have just been buying money all along. I assume that even one small wrinkle, such as the availability of +buy, can make the difference between an engine board and a BM board. $16 and +buy, even without an attack or +victory token, may be worth building an engine for if you can do it fast enough.

But there are a huge number of ways to get coin, all of which have very different implications and statistical analysis possibilities. I'll list a few different economy approaches and invite further insight and discussion.

Big Money: Buying the largest treasure you can afford. Coppers buy Silvers, Silvers buy Golds, Golds buy Platinums. Even when engine-building this is sometimes the best way to build economy (maybe it's the only way!) But sometimes it's not the best way, especially when engine-building. Not every player thinks about this.

Special treasures: Most special treasures add economy in unusual ways. The value of a Venture is variable, but could be outstanding in the right deck. Treasure Trove increases economy, and I keep underestimating it, but it would take a deck-drawing engine with Goons-engine-like copper trashing reliability to be worth playing in anything other than BM/Slog. The special treasures all have their own articles, but they're usually for economy-building, which makes me wonder if there are some economy meta-principles worth enumerating.

Silver flooding: It's not just for Feodums anymore! Somewhere along the line, the experienced players and number crunchers figured out that flooding your deck with silver and a few key terminal actions can buy a whole bunch of Provinces AND be resistant to greening. Gold, Shmold. When is a silver economy better than Gold? Certain cards/events make it attractive (Jack, Trader, Delve) but this might need its own article, or at least something on the wiki pointing out that it's a thing.

Disappearing Money: There's an article about this on the wiki, which is good. Most players get the village/smithy draw engine idea right away. The disappearing money/draw-to-x engine, on the other hand, takes longer to sink in. Minion helps by demonstrating a one-card way to do it. But I've seen too many players buy up Festivals on boards with no draw and literally never use them for anything other than expensive Silver. A comparison of a deck-drawing engine with/without Festivals and showing how much treasure you can do without might be a good visual to explain when and why it's a good card, and perhaps that could be extended further into more general-case deck builds.

Cantrip Money: Sometimes it's amazing. Sometimes it isn't. It all depends on the likelihood that the one card you're going to draw is going to help. Peddler-BM isn't a thing. Getting a stack of free Peddlers with a bunch of +buy actions is awesome, but even then, it wants trashing and/or draw. How do you calculate the value of cantrip-money and what it means to a build in terms of the amount of Treasure you don't have to buy? Calculating average coin per card density with just money is easy. With cantrips, how do you calculate that? Maybe it becomes a draw-reliability calculation?

Terminal Money: The Tale of the Sad Conspirator. When is it worth buying multiple +$2 terminals instead of Silver, for example, when you have actions to burn (City chains, etc.) My guess is that it's worth it only when they do something else helpful, like attacking or trashing (or, in the case of Happy Conspirator, drawing.) How does that add to the economy discussion, particularly when deciding how many Silvers to buy early on when engine-building? How often do you want to buy Silvers early just to trash them later, or is that usually an indication that you didn't plan well enough?

-- How much?

Big Money aims to buy a Province a turn. Engines usually aim to buy at least two, though sometimes the point of an engine is to achieve greater reliability, particularly in the face of an attack card like Militia, and still get only one Province a turn. Slogs and rushes usually aim to achieve a reliable $5 or $4 a turn, depending on the Alt+VP available.

So what do you buy, and what does a build look like that gets the right amount of coin? In a reliable deck-drawing engine, counting to $16 is pretty straightforward, but building for a slog or rush is different, and BM buys far more money just to get the density up since it's not deck drawing. When do you stop building economy and start greening?

Maybe this is too broad a subject, but when players are evaluating a card and talking about how it helps or hurts economy, that's a very simple word with a lot of complex implications, and maybe it would be possible to take a look at that word on its own for a moment and offer some clarification and solid playing principles.
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Awaclus

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Re: Economy
« Reply #1 on: June 28, 2016, 01:09:30 pm »
0

A very significant amount of time, the economy you need for an engine is exactly one Silver, which you open with. Then you might even trash it in the late game to make room for more payload instead.
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Seprix

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Re: Economy
« Reply #2 on: June 28, 2016, 01:33:02 pm »
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Economy is an interesting discussion, and I will want to give my thoughts on it shortly. /tag for now.
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popsofctown

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Re: Economy
« Reply #3 on: June 28, 2016, 02:30:31 pm »
+1

You generally don't want to build an engine that is based 100% on 5$ cards.  That is, if the board is only presenting a Bazaar/Journeyman/Herbalist deck, you usually just say pass and play the big money deck instead.  So you usually only need 1 Silver to hit 5$ once or twice early on, maybe, maybe, a second silver, then there is some other significant component you can buy each time you get "stuck on 4$".  More than you need of them, perhaps, but that still helps the collision chance with the 5$, while each Silver you add to your deck is neither element you need to collide, every single time you draw it, again and again. 

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Deadlock39

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Re: Economy
« Reply #4 on: June 28, 2016, 03:45:42 pm »
+4

How is this affected by Brexit?

shark_bait

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Re: Economy
« Reply #5 on: June 28, 2016, 04:00:27 pm »
+3

In a broad sense, a BM economy is your a measure of your average $/hand and how said average responds to dilution by victory cards.

An engine economy is better represented by the maximum amount of $/gains you can expect to maintain and build to for each new hand.
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LastFootnote

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Re: Economy
« Reply #6 on: June 28, 2016, 04:03:36 pm »
+2

How is this affected by Brexit?

Everything costs $1 more now; basically we're playing Tanto Cuore instead.
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Dingan

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Re: Economy
« Reply #7 on: June 28, 2016, 05:02:30 pm »
+2

step 1: 7 Coppers and 3 Estates
step 2: Economy
step 3: 8 Provinces
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JThorne

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Re: Economy
« Reply #8 on: June 28, 2016, 05:39:29 pm »
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Quote
A very significant amount of time, the economy you need for an engine is exactly one Silver, which you open with. Then you might even trash it in the late game to make room for more payload instead.

I have definitely done this more often than I would have expected. Yes, that single Silver might be the only Treasure you need, but how many engines don't actually rely on coin at all? Other than HoP or Goons or other Victory-point-generators, aren't most engines still buying green cards (or at least enough green cards to have a points lead when piling out?) So aren't your engine cards still generating coins, whether it's payload like Militia or an engine part like Plaza? To me, this is all part of the economy discussion.

Quote
An engine economy is better represented by the maximum amount of $/gains you can expect to maintain and build to for each new hand.

Agreed. In fact, as interesting as the victory point graphs are that are generated by the game logs, those don't really tell the whole story. Powerful engines can come back from almost any deficit; megaturn engines, especially, resulting in amusing victory point L-graphs.

I'd be interested in seeing graphs containing total deck value, or average deck value (a number improved by trashing) or a graph of deck size vs. draw capability, a graph of gains per turn... these are all economic indicators that describe how the deck is performing during the building process, which is often the key metric of Dominion success; not the victory points. Articles on engine-building point out that after you can draw deck, it grows exponentially. That's an easy thing to say, but let's show it with a graph/chart and some concrete examples.

Another thing that would be interesting to see would be a graph showing a deck's average coin-value gaining capability per turn. An engine with gainers and/or cost reduction can grow its gaining capability dramatically without adding actual coin-generators, but it's all still a measure of performance.

Looking at graphs like this, with concrete examples of deck contents after each shuffle, could really start to help players visualize that tipping point where growing the engine another turn or two can make a tremendous difference, but growing it more than that would result in diminishing returns.
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popsofctown

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Re: Economy
« Reply #9 on: June 28, 2016, 05:45:10 pm »
0

How is this affected by Brexit?

Everything costs $1 more now; basically we're playing Tanto Cuore instead.
I, for one, am excited.
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JThorne

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Re: Economy
« Reply #10 on: June 28, 2016, 09:43:36 pm »
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Quote
You generally don't want to build an engine that is based 100% on 5$ cards.  That is, if the board is only presenting a Bazaar/Journeyman/Herbalist deck, you usually just say pass and play the big money deck instead.

This is good, concrete advice, and is an example of "big picture" thinking that can be really helpful for players still learning to optimize their game. I guess part of the economy discussion I didn't cover is "what exactly are you trying to buy, anyway?" which also eventually extends into thinking about Province/Colony/Dominate.
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thespaceinvader

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Re: Economy
« Reply #11 on: June 29, 2016, 05:41:20 am »
0

How is this affected by Brexit?
WE WILL MAEK DIMONION GRATE AGANE

How?

*crickets*
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JThorne

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Re: Economy
« Reply #12 on: June 29, 2016, 09:30:39 am »
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Quote
You generally don't want to build an engine that is based 100% on 5$ cards.

Wait a minute. A question about this: I feel like I've built one-card engines based solely on Laboratory or Stables. Every two Labs draws 4 cards, just like Bazaar/Journeyman. Stables doesn't even need you to trash a lot of your Copper.

Or are these just Big Money decks that can tolerate more than two draw cards? I usually add one terminal payload card, though, and nonterminal actions along the way if there are helpful ones that give coin or sift green. That feels more Enginey to me.

Are $5 engines really not a thing, and I'm just benefitting from soft opponents?

Incidentally, Forum seems like the real deal, speaking of self-sustaining $5 actions. It doesn't draw deck, or even increase your handsize, but if what you plan to accomplish is the same 5-card hand every turn and scoff at green cards, it's pretty darn good.
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Mic Qsenoch

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Re: Economy
« Reply #13 on: June 29, 2016, 09:55:24 am »
+6

Quote
You generally don't want to build an engine that is based 100% on 5$ cards.

Wait a minute. A question about this: I feel like I've built one-card engines based solely on Laboratory or Stables. Every two Labs draws 4 cards, just like Bazaar/Journeyman. Stables doesn't even need you to trash a lot of your Copper.

Or are these just Big Money decks that can tolerate more than two draw cards? I usually add one terminal payload card, though, and nonterminal actions along the way if there are helpful ones that give coin or sift green. That feels more Enginey to me.

Are $5 engines really not a thing, and I'm just benefitting from soft opponents?

It's just plain bad advice. It's not at all hard for the length of the game to be extended (alt VP, attacks, etc.) to make getting several $5s a piece of cake. And of course there are elite trashers/drawers whatever else you need at $5 and greater. They tend to be stronger so you may not need as many copies of them and/or they provide greater resources to let you get other $5s more easily. You can take the cost of the engine pieces into consideration for how you need to approach building, but I'd say it's a minor consideration on whether to pursue an engine or not.
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Deadlock39

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Re: Economy
« Reply #14 on: June 29, 2016, 10:56:26 am »
+18

WE WILL MAEK DIMONION GRATE AGANE
How?

Make Dominion Great Again

We are at a Crossroads.
We have a Mission to Save our great Dominion.
We can Bridge the gap.
We must turn the Page and Remake our Dominion to be great again.
I have a Plan to Guide us over this Mountain Pass and bring back the Fortune this Dominion once had.

As our Overlord I will ban Settlers from Distant Lands from entering our Dominion. These Vagrants come seeking only Alms and our Tax coins should not be spent on these Theives. The people of this Dominon have made too much of a Sacrifice to allow these Fugitives with no Training to Raid our job Market while our Soldiers travel to distant Ports and die on the Battlefield to protect our freedom. You may think that these migrants only seek Haven, or that they are Apprentice Engineers that wish to attend our Universities. My Advisor assures me that this is not the case. They bring Contraband, they bring Fugitives, they're rapists.

There are also Spies Masqerading as Peasants entering our Dominion amongst the Rabble. These Madmen are Scheming to recruit more Followers that wish to Pillage our great Dominion. Their ideology is Bazaar. They are in Possession of a dangerous Armory, and believe a Harem is waiting for them when they die. They will leave no Survivors if they get their way. It does not take a Fortune Teller to see these things coming.

We must Upgrade our Militia so we can Count on them to Triumph over our enemies.
We must bring our Ambassadors home from their Embassies, and put up an Embargo on Trade.
We must build a Wall to Keep the foreign Hoard from Venturing into our Border Villages.
We must Dominate our enemies and lock thier Warriors in our offshore Island Dungeon, and should not hesitate to send the Torturer when they will not cooperate.
We must contact our Governors, and Donate to this cause.
We must pursue our Quarry relentlessly.

If we do these simple things, the Lookout for this Dominion is great. We will once again be able to Expand our Cities, Advance our knowledge and Develop our infrastructure. We can Rebuild our greatness, and Hearld in a new era. We can Develop our Dominion into an Inheritance for our children that we are proud of.

DG

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Re: Economy
« Reply #15 on: June 29, 2016, 11:52:28 am »
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Quote
I'm going to pose these in the form of questions rather than authoritative statements, because, again, I'm not necessarily an expert; I just suspect that these are issues worth discussing

I think there are plenty of different issues you could talk about that would help prepare an article, such as how buys and gains are different (or similar) when discussing economy. You could discuss how economy feeds into planning and planning feeds into economy. Your questions on mechanics probably need some concept of timing, deck control, sequencing of buys, and acceleration (speed of deck improvement). Talk about colliding terminals could perhaps focus on how colliding terminals can change income possibilities rather than looking at the mathematical chances of collision. How does deck control (or income control) improve the usefulness of buys? How does an economy fit into an endgame strategy?
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