This is really a fascinating board, and I am pretty sure that the answer is surprisingly simple: Go Village-Smithy, kind of. More precisely, I expect the best plan to be:
T1-T4 Get three Silvers and Outpost
T5 Donate everything else
T6 Pay the rest of your debt, buy a CotR, play Outpost; buy a Journeyman
T7-8: Buy two more Journeymen, a second CotR, and a silver/gold
T9-T11, repeat:
Play a Journeyman, call a CotR, a second Journeyman, Outpost, pay (with your second CotR) a province
Outpost turn: play three journeymen, pay with your second CotR, buy a province
If everything works like this, you have 6 provinces in T11 - granted, something will go wrong, but this will be the exception: Both CotR (you don't need a village to start with) and Journeymans skipping increase reliability. Outpost turns will likely be good if you have a journeyman in your first three, and having three journeymen in a thin deck makes it very likely.
Therefore, I expect a simulator to get an average of less than 13 turns till you buy the 6th prov.
Right then, none of the fancy cards helps you get there nearly in time, and even if you manage to curse a bit with Jester, an extra donation merely costs half a turn.
All in all, I am really happy to see that good old village-smithy seems to be still alive in Empires ... man it's such a great expansion can't wait to play it online