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Author Topic: Mountain Pass: guess the bid  (Read 4894 times)

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Geronimoo

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Mountain Pass: guess the bid
« on: June 09, 2016, 01:20:15 pm »
+11

In a pure Big Money matchup (no Actions!) how much should you bid for Mountain Pass?

I'll post the answer monday. The simulator bot used was Big Money Ultimate. The bid is pre defined (so no checking of game state to determine bid).
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Kirian

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Re: Mountain Pass: guess the bid
« Reply #1 on: June 09, 2016, 01:26:25 pm »
0

Is this a post-your-guesses post?

I bid 11.
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math

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Re: Mountain Pass: guess the bid
« Reply #2 on: June 09, 2016, 01:30:38 pm »
0

My guess is 12.
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Burning Skull

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Re: Mountain Pass: guess the bid
« Reply #3 on: June 09, 2016, 01:33:12 pm »
0

about 13?

more in slogs

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Re: Mountain Pass: guess the bid
« Reply #4 on: June 09, 2016, 01:36:16 pm »
0

There are two decisions. How much you should bid if you are the first bidder, and whether the second bidder should overcall. Presumably you're asking, "given that the second player responds optimally, how much should the first player bid?"

While it's much less important than the first player's bid, I'm also curious whether the second player ends up always over-bidding, or never over-bidding.
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Re: Mountain Pass: guess the bid
« Reply #5 on: June 09, 2016, 01:37:12 pm »
+2

16
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Re: Mountain Pass: guess the bid
« Reply #6 on: June 09, 2016, 01:38:00 pm »
0

There are two decisions. How much you should bid if you are the first bidder, and whether the second bidder should overcall. Presumably you're asking, "given that the second player responds optimally, how much should the first player bid?"
The bots have a pre-defined number so for example Bot n1 always bids 11 and Bot n2 always bids 12. There was no investigation regarding over-bidding.
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Re: Mountain Pass: guess the bid
« Reply #7 on: June 09, 2016, 01:41:45 pm »
0

JW

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Re: Mountain Pass: guess the bid
« Reply #8 on: June 09, 2016, 01:45:04 pm »
+3

The bots have a pre-defined number so for example Bot n1 always bids 11 and Bot n2 always bids 12. There was no investigation regarding over-bidding.

If I understand right, that's going to create some strange clearly suboptimal decisions. Suppose that the bot that always bids 11 goes up against the bot that always bids 13. If the bot that bids 11 goes first, the bot that bids 13 wins the bidding with a bid of 13, even though it only needed to bid 12! Presumably the rule should be Bot nX always bids X when it is the first player to bid, and as the second player it bids 1+the first player's bid as long as this is less than or equal to X.
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trivialknot

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Re: Mountain Pass: guess the bid
« Reply #9 on: June 09, 2016, 01:47:54 pm »
0

10.  Hope the rest of you enjoy your debt.
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Re: Mountain Pass: guess the bid
« Reply #10 on: June 09, 2016, 02:00:49 pm »
0

10
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Re: Mountain Pass: guess the bid
« Reply #11 on: June 09, 2016, 02:54:01 pm »
0

13

Chris is me

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Re: Mountain Pass: guess the bid
« Reply #12 on: June 09, 2016, 03:09:17 pm »
0

I'm gonna say... 14? It's a Province and a Duchy minus one - that you need 0 buys instead of 2 to pay and that gives you no junk and you can pay over multiple turns. 14 can just barely be done in two turns with a productive BM deck ready to buy Provinces, most of the time.
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Re: Mountain Pass: guess the bid
« Reply #13 on: June 09, 2016, 03:13:37 pm »
+1

Depends on the board.
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Re: Mountain Pass: guess the bid
« Reply #14 on: June 09, 2016, 03:28:35 pm »
+6

Depends on the board.

Not if you can read, then it doesn't matter at all.
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Re: Mountain Pass: guess the bid
« Reply #15 on: June 09, 2016, 03:37:01 pm »
0

18
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Re: Mountain Pass: guess the bid
« Reply #16 on: June 09, 2016, 03:39:16 pm »
+2

I give you tree fiddy.
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Re: Mountain Pass: guess the bid
« Reply #17 on: June 09, 2016, 04:13:45 pm »
0

15
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Re: Mountain Pass: guess the bid
« Reply #18 on: June 09, 2016, 04:32:39 pm »
0

7

I posted comments in the "Mountain Pass Bidding Strategy" since maybe people don't want their guesses influenced by discussion.

DG

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Re: Mountain Pass: guess the bid
« Reply #19 on: June 09, 2016, 04:35:39 pm »
0

Lucky 13.
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Re: Mountain Pass: guess the bid
« Reply #20 on: June 09, 2016, 04:59:52 pm »
0

11, kinda?
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Re: Mountain Pass: guess the bid
« Reply #21 on: June 09, 2016, 05:00:38 pm »
+8

2 Potion
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Re: Mountain Pass: guess the bid
« Reply #22 on: June 09, 2016, 09:24:42 pm »
+5

2 Gunpowder.
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Re: Mountain Pass: guess the bid
« Reply #23 on: June 09, 2016, 11:23:51 pm »
0

Let's see. This is going to be the optimal number for bid winning before the win% decreases. For example, bidding 1 and winning the bid will give a huge winning percentage, but that is not going to be feasible. Obviously, the question becomes how high the number can be before the win% decreases and everything about equalizes.

It must be less than 16d, but more than 8d.

I think it is going to be about 11d-12d before there is a diminishing return.
$8/6vp = 1.33 per vp, and $1.33 per vp * 8vp is roughly $11. but the flexibility of debt allows you to go a little further than the optimal cost, as well as the junk card not located in your deck for the VP, leading me to the answer of 13-14d as the equalized optimal answer.

I will say it is likely 13d, but 14 is not much worse.
« Last Edit: June 09, 2016, 11:28:49 pm by Seprix »
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Re: Mountain Pass: guess the bid
« Reply #24 on: June 09, 2016, 11:41:43 pm »
+2

1.5E-8 gigadebts
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Re: Mountain Pass: guess the bid
« Reply #25 on: June 10, 2016, 08:37:48 am »
0

10.  As I said on reddit, this is 1 less than Colony, for 2 fewer points.
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Davio

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Re: Mountain Pass: guess the bid
« Reply #26 on: June 10, 2016, 09:03:26 am »
0

14
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liopoil

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Re: Mountain Pass: guess the bid
« Reply #27 on: June 10, 2016, 09:25:00 am »
+3

17

Reasons:
1. It's a good number
2. It's the least 2 digit number not already guessed.
3. It's conceivable that you are all underestimating (except scsn). Debt is paid off without overflow, unlike a province sometimes. Also, these 8 VP doesn't clog your deck at all.
4. It's probably supposed to be a surprising answer
5. It's a good number
« Last Edit: June 10, 2016, 01:54:43 pm by liopoil »
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Re: Mountain Pass: guess the bid
« Reply #28 on: June 10, 2016, 11:09:36 am »
+1

10 guineas.

You might push me to 10 pounds, 11 shillings and 5 pence, but not a farthing more.
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Re: Mountain Pass: guess the bid
« Reply #29 on: June 10, 2016, 11:16:37 am »
0

10/6? I mean, if we're bidding in British currency In This Style.
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Re: Mountain Pass: guess the bid
« Reply #30 on: June 10, 2016, 11:17:54 am »
0

42
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Re: Mountain Pass: guess the bid
« Reply #31 on: June 10, 2016, 02:38:41 pm »
+4

17, so that liopoil doesn't win alone if it's correct.
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Re: Mountain Pass: guess the bid
« Reply #32 on: June 10, 2016, 02:50:27 pm »
0

18, to stop liopoil from winning by The Price is Right rules.
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Re: Mountain Pass: guess the bid
« Reply #33 on: June 10, 2016, 05:56:53 pm »
0

Geronimoo, you just leaked that 17 is the best Mountain Pass Bid. :(
I haven't checked, but sorry ehalc and golden_cow2, I still feel like the winner!
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Re: Mountain Pass: guess the bid
« Reply #34 on: June 10, 2016, 05:59:11 pm »
0

Geronimoo, you just leaked that 17 is the best Mountain Pass Bid. :(
I haven't checked, but sorry ehalc and golden_cow2, I still feel like the winner!

Yes, positive it is 17. I guessed 13, but it should actually be 17.
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Re: Mountain Pass: guess the bid
« Reply #35 on: June 11, 2016, 06:30:30 am »
0

So you spend double the price for a Province for more VP and not having one in your deck; seems about right I guess.
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Re: Mountain Pass: guess the bid
« Reply #36 on: June 11, 2016, 07:31:06 am »
+3

16

clearly a bluff!

Yep, bidding low so I make a profit if you don't know how much it is worth ;)
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Geronimoo

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Re: Mountain Pass: guess the bid
« Reply #37 on: June 13, 2016, 02:19:29 pm »
+7

I kind of spoiled it when I released my new version of the sim, but here's the official answer:

17 is the correct bid.

Some more statistics:
  • In a Sea Hag slog the correct bid is 19
  • In a Fishing Village/Wharf engine game, the correct bid is 13
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Re: Mountain Pass: guess the bid
« Reply #38 on: June 13, 2016, 07:37:50 pm »
0

I kind of spoiled it when I released my new version of the sim, but here's the official answer:

17 is the correct bid.

Some more statistics:
  • In a Sea Hag slog the correct bid is 19
  • In a Fishing Village/Wharf engine game, the correct bid is 13

Now liopoil or WW or whoever pretended to guess can feel happy they cheated.
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Re: Mountain Pass: guess the bid
« Reply #39 on: June 13, 2016, 10:12:04 pm »
+3

excuse me I predicted this before he released the simulator using nothing but pure dominion strategy
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Re: Mountain Pass: guess the bid
« Reply #40 on: June 13, 2016, 10:27:57 pm »
0

This is going to be such a hard card to figure out in games it comes up in.
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Re: Mountain Pass: guess the bid
« Reply #41 on: June 13, 2016, 11:17:08 pm »
0

excuse me I predicted this before he released the simulator using nothing but pure dominion strategy

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Re: Mountain Pass: guess the bid
« Reply #42 on: June 14, 2016, 12:03:07 am »
+3

excuse me I predicted this before he released the simulator using nothing but pure dominion strategy

I predicted this using nothing but spite.
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Re: Mountain Pass: guess the bid
« Reply #43 on: June 14, 2016, 04:13:55 am »
+2

excuse me I predicted this before he released the simulator using nothing but pure dominion strategy



Liopoil's name is Jan?!
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Re: Mountain Pass: guess the bid
« Reply #44 on: June 14, 2016, 09:38:29 am »
+3

excuse me I predicted this before he released the simulator using nothing but pure dominion strategy



Liopoil's name is Jan?!

If I remember correctly, you have to put an "uli" in there to make that a correct statement. Incidentally, those three letters are also a homophone for what Seprix is accusing lio of.
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Re: Mountain Pass: guess the bid
« Reply #45 on: June 14, 2016, 11:32:29 am »
+2

Quote
Quote

Liopoil's name is Jan?!

If I remember correctly, you have to put an "uli" in there to make that a correct statement. Incidentally, those three letters are also a homophone for what Seprix is accusing lio of.

Liopoil's naulime is Jan?
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Re: Mountain Pass: guess the bid
« Reply #46 on: June 14, 2016, 11:35:00 am »
0

Januli does sound like Liopoil's actual name.
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Re: Mountain Pass: guess the bid
« Reply #47 on: June 14, 2016, 11:41:35 am »
0

excuse me I predicted this before he released the simulator using nothing but pure dominion strategy



Liopoil's name is Jan?!

If I remember correctly, you have to put an "uli" in there to make that a correct statement. Incidentally, those three letters are also a homophone for what Seprix is accusing lio of.
Okay that took me embarrassingly long to get.
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liopoiluli

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Re: Mountain Pass: guess the bid
« Reply #48 on: June 14, 2016, 12:39:44 pm »
+5

Quote
Quote

Liopoil's name is Jan?!

If I remember correctly, you have to put an "uli" in there to make that a correct statement. Incidentally, those three letters are also a homophone for what Seprix is accusing lio of.

Liopoil's naulime is Jan?

No, my name is Jan.
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Re: Mountain Pass: guess the bid
« Reply #49 on: June 14, 2016, 12:54:34 pm »
0

Quote
Quote

Liopoil's name is Jan?!

If I remember correctly, you have to put an "uli" in there to make that a correct statement. Incidentally, those three letters are also a homophone for what Seprix is accusing lio of.

Liopoil's naulime is Jan?

No, my name is Jan.

Have you checked out the forum games?
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Re: Mountain Pass: guess the bid
« Reply #50 on: June 14, 2016, 12:59:13 pm »
0

Quote
Quote

Liopoil's name is Jan?!

If I remember correctly, you have to put an "uli" in there to make that a correct statement. Incidentally, those three letters are also a homophone for what Seprix is accusing lio of.

Liopoil's naulime is Jan?

No, my name is Jan.

Wait, are you in accounting?

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Re: Mountain Pass: guess the bid
« Reply #51 on: August 04, 2016, 04:53:25 pm »
0

excuse me I predicted this before he released the simulator using nothing but pure dominion strategy



Liopoil's name is Jan?!

If I remember correctly, you have to put an "uli" in there to make that a correct statement. Incidentally, those three letters are also a homophone for what Seprix is accusing lio of.
Okay that took me embarrassingly long to get.

Still not getting it.
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Re: Mountain Pass: guess the bid
« Reply #52 on: August 04, 2016, 05:51:13 pm »
+1

excuse me I predicted this before he released the simulator using nothing but pure dominion strategy



Liopoil's name is Jan?!

If I remember correctly, you have to put an "uli" in there to make that a correct statement. Incidentally, those three letters are also a homophone for what Seprix is accusing lio of.
Okay that took me embarrassingly long to get.

Still not getting it.
liopoil's name is Julian. uli-> You lie.
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Re: Mountain Pass: guess the bid
« Reply #53 on: August 05, 2016, 09:57:40 am »
0

liopoil's name is Julian. uli-> You lie.

Were we all supposed to know this?
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Deadlock39

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Re: Mountain Pass: guess the bid
« Reply #54 on: August 05, 2016, 09:59:34 am »
+2

It was probably in the interview that Liopoil did when he made the final four of the f.ds tournament last year.

Mic Qsenoch

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Re: Mountain Pass: guess the bid
« Reply #55 on: August 05, 2016, 10:56:43 am »
+5

It was probably in the interview that Liopoil did when he made the final four of the f.ds tournament last year.

uli
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Awaclus

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Re: Mountain Pass: guess the bid
« Reply #56 on: August 06, 2016, 07:44:49 am »
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liopoil

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Re: Mountain Pass: guess the bid
« Reply #57 on: September 26, 2016, 06:16:23 pm »
0

It was probably in the interview that Liopoil did when he made the final four of the f.ds tournament last year.
Glad somebody thinks that this is a thing which happened.
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