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### AuthorTopic: Mountain Pass: guess the bid  (Read 13506 times)

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#### Geronimoo

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##### Mountain Pass: guess the bid
« on: June 09, 2016, 01:20:15 pm »
+11

In a pure Big Money matchup (no Actions!) how much should you bid for Mountain Pass?

I'll post the answer monday. The simulator bot used was Big Money Ultimate. The bid is pre defined (so no checking of game state to determine bid).
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#### Kirian

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##### Re: Mountain Pass: guess the bid
« Reply #1 on: June 09, 2016, 01:26:25 pm »
0

Is this a post-your-guesses post?

I bid 11.
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#### math

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##### Re: Mountain Pass: guess the bid
« Reply #2 on: June 09, 2016, 01:30:38 pm »
0

My guess is 12.
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#### Burning Skull

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##### Re: Mountain Pass: guess the bid
« Reply #3 on: June 09, 2016, 01:33:12 pm »
0

more in slogs

#### JW

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##### Re: Mountain Pass: guess the bid
« Reply #4 on: June 09, 2016, 01:36:16 pm »
0

There are two decisions. How much you should bid if you are the first bidder, and whether the second bidder should overcall. Presumably you're asking, "given that the second player responds optimally, how much should the first player bid?"

While it's much less important than the first player's bid, I'm also curious whether the second player ends up always over-bidding, or never over-bidding.
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#### Rabid

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##### Re: Mountain Pass: guess the bid
« Reply #5 on: June 09, 2016, 01:37:12 pm »
+2

16
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#### Geronimoo

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##### Re: Mountain Pass: guess the bid
« Reply #6 on: June 09, 2016, 01:38:00 pm »
0

There are two decisions. How much you should bid if you are the first bidder, and whether the second bidder should overcall. Presumably you're asking, "given that the second player responds optimally, how much should the first player bid?"
The bots have a pre-defined number so for example Bot n°1 always bids 11 and Bot n°2 always bids 12. There was no investigation regarding over-bidding.
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#### Burning Skull

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##### Re: Mountain Pass: guess the bid
« Reply #7 on: June 09, 2016, 01:41:45 pm »
0

#### JW

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##### Re: Mountain Pass: guess the bid
« Reply #8 on: June 09, 2016, 01:45:04 pm »
+3

The bots have a pre-defined number so for example Bot n°1 always bids 11 and Bot n°2 always bids 12. There was no investigation regarding over-bidding.

If I understand right, that's going to create some strange clearly suboptimal decisions. Suppose that the bot that always bids 11 goes up against the bot that always bids 13. If the bot that bids 11 goes first, the bot that bids 13 wins the bidding with a bid of 13, even though it only needed to bid 12! Presumably the rule should be Bot n°X always bids X when it is the first player to bid, and as the second player it bids 1+the first player's bid as long as this is less than or equal to X.
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#### trivialknot

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##### Re: Mountain Pass: guess the bid
« Reply #9 on: June 09, 2016, 01:47:54 pm »
0

10.  Hope the rest of you enjoy your debt.
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#### Limetime

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##### Re: Mountain Pass: guess the bid
« Reply #10 on: June 09, 2016, 02:00:49 pm »
0

10
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#### singletee

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##### Re: Mountain Pass: guess the bid
« Reply #11 on: June 09, 2016, 02:54:01 pm »
0

13
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#### Chris is me

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##### Re: Mountain Pass: guess the bid
« Reply #12 on: June 09, 2016, 03:09:17 pm »
0

I'm gonna say... 14? It's a Province and a Duchy minus one - that you need 0 buys instead of 2 to pay and that gives you no junk and you can pay over multiple turns. 14 can just barely be done in two turns with a productive BM deck ready to buy Provinces, most of the time.
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##### Re: Mountain Pass: guess the bid
« Reply #13 on: June 09, 2016, 03:13:37 pm »
+1

Depends on the board.
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#### drsteelhammer

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##### Re: Mountain Pass: guess the bid
« Reply #14 on: June 09, 2016, 03:28:35 pm »
+6

Depends on the board.

Not if you can read, then it doesn't matter at all.
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#### SCSN

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##### Re: Mountain Pass: guess the bid
« Reply #15 on: June 09, 2016, 03:37:01 pm »
0

18
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#### Witherweaver

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##### Re: Mountain Pass: guess the bid
« Reply #16 on: June 09, 2016, 03:39:16 pm »
+2

I give you tree fiddy.
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#### ThetaSigma12

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##### Re: Mountain Pass: guess the bid
« Reply #17 on: June 09, 2016, 04:13:45 pm »
0

15
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##### Re: Mountain Pass: guess the bid
« Reply #18 on: June 09, 2016, 04:32:39 pm »
0

7

I posted comments in the "Mountain Pass Bidding Strategy" since maybe people don't want their guesses influenced by discussion.

#### DG

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##### Re: Mountain Pass: guess the bid
« Reply #19 on: June 09, 2016, 04:35:39 pm »
0

Lucky 13.
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#### Accatitippi

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##### Re: Mountain Pass: guess the bid
« Reply #20 on: June 09, 2016, 04:59:52 pm »
0

11, kinda?
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##### Re: Mountain Pass: guess the bid
« Reply #21 on: June 09, 2016, 05:00:38 pm »
+8

2 Potion
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#### Marcory

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##### Re: Mountain Pass: guess the bid
« Reply #22 on: June 09, 2016, 09:24:42 pm »
+5

2 Gunpowder.
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#### Seprix

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##### Re: Mountain Pass: guess the bid
« Reply #23 on: June 09, 2016, 11:23:51 pm »
0

Let's see. This is going to be the optimal number for bid winning before the win% decreases. For example, bidding 1 and winning the bid will give a huge winning percentage, but that is not going to be feasible. Obviously, the question becomes how high the number can be before the win% decreases and everything about equalizes.

It must be less than 16d, but more than 8d.

I think it is going to be about 11d-12d before there is a diminishing return.
\$8/6vp = 1.33 per vp, and \$1.33 per vp * 8vp is roughly \$11. but the flexibility of debt allows you to go a little further than the optimal cost, as well as the junk card not located in your deck for the VP, leading me to the answer of 13-14d as the equalized optimal answer.

I will say it is likely 13d, but 14 is not much worse.
« Last Edit: June 09, 2016, 11:28:49 pm by Seprix »
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• Jester
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##### Re: Mountain Pass: guess the bid
« Reply #24 on: June 09, 2016, 11:41:43 pm »
+2

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