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[ashersky]

If the players which mafia chooses die before the start of the next day, then another player from the required alignment is randomized. However, mafia is allowed (and encouraged) to choose a backup player for each side, who will then be chosen if the first choice dies.

Scum could have chosen a backup, therefore faust could have been the sacrifice target.

But why choose a backup?  The absolute most sensible thing to do as scum is to assume town plays well enough to follow the simplest plan on the planet and just work around it.

There are no absolute guarantees here, but I'm basing my analysis on known information and most likely decisions.  Scum plans for the plan and does what they need to to get what they think is most beneficial to them.

[faust]

So that is terrible.  Shame on chairs.

Here's what we learned.  There is at least one scum in {1-6}.  There could be one scum in {9, 10, 12}.

Why?  The duel.  All of my calculations assume I am town because I know I am town.

The scum team chose Faust and ashersky.  They knew our plan and had to factor that into their decision.  Hence, they knew that the scum who would die was not Faust.  The kill target would have been a player between Faust and chairs (my guess is Seprix).  Seprix and igu are highly likely to be town, but not guaranteed.

Regardless, they could only have targeted Sep, igu, or chairs.  They knew I would survive the NK because of the plan, so they either planned for Jimmmmm to die, or both scum are in the first set of six.

I think Jimmmm was the sacrifice.  That would mean the third partner is seen as townier than him.

vote: faust

Two people can play this game.

The most interesting thing is that chairs died; that means that if scum did not want to kill ash, then Jimmmmm must be scum. Or it's all a setup to frame Jimmmmm? That would mean that ash was willing to risk being the nightkill. Does that make sense?

This needs a bit of ash psychology. I strongly believe that in any possible scum team, ash is the mastermind. So what's he thinking? I know he doesn't like imbalanced games (and understandably so). Maybe he decided "if the plan succeeds, I don't want to play", thus making himself the kill. On the other hand, if the plan fails, ash would be very eager to continue.

So I fear that there is no way to conclude that Jimmmmm is town here. Too bad.

Vote: ashersky

[faust]

So I fear that there is no way to conclude that Jimmmmm is town here. Too bad.

And when I say town, I mean scum, as always. Though the above statement is true as well.

[faust]

But why choose a backup?  The absolute most sensible thing to do as scum is to assume town plays well enough to follow the simplest plan on the planet and just work around it.

There are no absolute guarantees here, but I'm basing my analysis on known information and most likely decisions.  Scum plans for the plan and does what they need to to get what they think is most beneficial to them.

Thi is an interesting post though. ash implies that scum would have always assumed the plan works. Is that what he really thinks? Because then Jimmmmm looks bad again. I may just be misdirection though, hoping to frame Jimmmmm even after his death.

I mean, no matter what, we both die after today, so anything ash says right now is full of WIFOM.

[faust]

Okay, who screwed up!?

Obviously chairs, right? Which is too bad because he was on the track to being MVP. I'm tempted to say ash is town because of the way he pushed the ghoul plan.

Ashersky is too clever to not push the Ghoul plan. He's a solid scum player, and a huge risk taker. Don't assume he is town for only that reason.

Plus, it was not him that came up with the plan, but chairs. Of course after the plan was out, everyone realized that we had to do it.

[ashersky]

The most interesting thing is that chairs died; that means that if scum did not want to kill ash, then Jimmmmm must be scum. Or it's all a setup to frame Jimmmmm? That would mean that ash was willing to risk being the nightkill. Does that make sense?

No, that doesn't make sense.  I used ghoul, I pass the kill on.  Why would any of what you are mentioning there matter? 

The whole "if scum did not want to kill X" thing doesn't work because of the plan.

So no sense.

[ashersky]

I mean, no matter what, we both die after today, so anything ash says right now is full of WIFOM.

Applies to you, too.

[ashersky]

The funny thing about this duel mechanic, especially today, is that there's very little to base anything on.

I seriously don't have a scum read on Faust -- I just know he's scum because I'm not.  I don't have a case to build.  I guess I could re-read D1, but there's not much there to care about.  Had we lynched scum, that would have helped.

The funny thing is, since we both die anyway, the only thing that matters is whether scum gets to keep their number at 3 or not.  There's just not much incentive to try as either alignment.

[ashersky]

Yeah, not much from Faust on D1.  I guess that's a thing -- not much input, basically of no use, which is the opposite of town!faust.  He was put Lyle at L1, but so did I at one point.  Besides, Lyle ensured that we can't find anyone at fault for his Lynch, given he claimed scum.

Yeah, I've got nothing compelling.

[ashersky]

Thi is an interesting post though. ash implies that scum would have always assumed the plan works. Is that what he really thinks? Because then Jimmmmm looks bad again. I may just be misdirection though, hoping to frame Jimmmmm even after his death.

More on this -- why would scum NOT assume the plan works?  It literally works perfectly to kill one scum.  It was a design flaw.  There were two ways for the plan to fail:

1) a town player fails to follow the plan
2) the mod changed the setup without telling anyone

It has to be 1, because 2 would be an unforgivable sin.

So, it seems like a fairly big risk for the scum team to assume a townie would f* up.  They had to have planned for one of them (not Faust) to be dead.

And Jimmmm still doesn't look any worse than anyone else.  Where are you coming up with this?  Jimmmmm ghouled to me, and I ghouled to gkrieg.  Your argument is based on "if scum is Faust and ash is town, Jimmmm looks like scum because otherwise ash would have died" but that doesn't work because Ghoul protected me.

Your confusion about Jimmmm's looks reveals you, I think.

[ashersky]

The random conversion of a townie if you mislynch me throws a bigger wrench into things -- reads go out the window, the likelihood stuff that came from the ghoul plan also get weaker...

[faust]

The most interesting thing is that chairs died; that means that if scum did not want to kill ash, then Jimmmmm must be scum. Or it's all a setup to frame Jimmmmm? That would mean that ash was willing to risk being the nightkill. Does that make sense?

No, that doesn't make sense.  I used ghoul, I pass the kill on.  Why would any of what you are mentioning there matter?

Because you're scum and have no ghoul power.

[ashersky]

The most interesting thing is that chairs died; that means that if scum did not want to kill ash, then Jimmmmm must be scum. Or it's all a setup to frame Jimmmmm? That would mean that ash was willing to risk being the nightkill. Does that make sense?

No, that doesn't make sense.  I used ghoul, I pass the kill on.  Why would any of what you are mentioning there matter?

Because you're scum and have no ghoul power.

Oh, I see.  In the case that you are town and I am scum, scum didn't want me to die from the NK because they chose this duel.

Okay, that makes sense.  Except it is wrong, and will be proven wrong either way.  I actually think we should just lynch.  Everyone can vote in their next post -- you and I unvote each other so as not to effect wagon makeup.  One extra slot on the lynch for a player to have to make a stand benefits town every time.

unvote

[ashersky]

I will strongly note that if Faust refuses to unvote, he's ensuring that at least one vote on the mislynch wagon is himself, who will die, and is that much less information for town to go on on future days.

[EgorK]

2 things

First, I managed to submit my action

Second, remember, if we lynch incorrectly one townie will end up being converted, which will complicate reads a bit

I am inclined to vote faust, but need to think a little more

[Seprix]

They had to have planned for one of them (not Faust) to be dead.

...How do you know this?

[Seprix]

I legitimately feel we can figure out this lynch. We have time, let town discuss it. The fact that Ash is pushing for everyone to just vote instead of discussing it is very very scummy on its own.

[ashersky]

They had to have planned for one of them (not Faust) to be dead.

...How do you know this?

How do you not?  Unless you think they knew somehow that one town would not follow the plan, they had to have planned to lose one of their own.

The NK was compulsory, the Ghouls would redirect it until it hit someone who couldn't, and that someone was supposed to be scum.

Ensuring it wasn't Faust was easy -- the first domino needed to be after Faust and before another scum on the player list.

[ashersky]

I legitimately feel we can figure out this lynch. We have time, let town discuss it. The fact that Ash is pushing for everyone to just vote instead of discussing it is very very scummy on its own.

I legitimately think you are delusional if you think there is a sure fire way to determine which of the two of us are scum.

Although one point I would make -- no scum team with me on it would ever, ever, ever duel Faust.  That's crazy sauce.

[Seprix]

They had to have planned for one of them (not Faust) to be dead.

...How do you know this?

How do you not? 

The onus of proof is on you.

Unless you think they knew somehow that one town would not follow the plan, they had to have planned to lose one of their own.

A reasonable assumption.

The NK was compulsory, the Ghouls would redirect it until it hit someone who couldn't, and that someone was supposed to be scum.

Yes.

Ensuring it wasn't Faust was easy -- the first domino needed to be after Faust and before another scum on the player list.

But why Faust specifically? Wouldn't scum want to pick someone not as scummy? Just because Faust is lined up beside you doesn't mean he's the top scum pick, assuming he is scum in the first place, and not you.

I'm going to go look at the list myself, and see if I can make anything of it.

[Seprix]

I legitimately feel we can figure out this lynch. We have time, let town discuss it. The fact that Ash is pushing for everyone to just vote instead of discussing it is very very scummy on its own.

I legitimately think you are delusional if you think there is a sure fire way to determine which of the two of us are scum.

Although one point I would make -- no scum team with me on it would ever, ever, ever duel Faust.  That's crazy sauce.

That crazy sauce has tons of wine in it.

[Seprix]

Not to mention there might be something to discuss. You're going to deny the chance for town to think about their decision?

[Seprix]

THE LIST FOR CONTEXT:

    gkrieg13
    Joseph2302
    Haddock
    e
    Egork
    J Reggie
    faust - DUEL
    teamlyle – Lynched Day 1
    Seprix
    iguanaiguana
    chairs – Died Night 1
    Jimmmmm
    ashersky - DUEL

[faust]

Okay, that makes sense.  Except it is wrong, and will be proven wrong either way.  I actually think we should just lynch.  Everyone can vote in their next post -- you and I unvote each other so as not to effect wagon makeup.  One extra slot on the lynch for a player to have to make a stand benefits town every time.

unvote

I don't get this - we have the whole day to sort this out. Why should people vote in their next post? Because you think the tide is on your side right now?

I also don't see a reason to unvote. Outsider's perspective: If either of us is at L-1 and we have both unvoted, if it's the town player at L-1, scum will quickhammer. Arguably I would also quickhammer as town, because "wagon makeup" isn't worth taking the risk of lynching the wrong guy. Seems more honest to just keep my vote on you.

[Seprix]

With Ashersky's logic, he could have easily have been the one who wanted to die if it didn't work out, for Faust's reason: The set-up too heavily favored town and was swingy.

Another thing to consider: Scum could have picked someone who was as far away from scum as possible, in the hopes that it would hit a town player who supposedly missed. Chairs missed. So there's that.