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[2.71828.....]

Vote: adk

[Melisandre]

Let's chat.

[Or anyone else who is here].

I feel like I'm voting on PoE to a degree - I don't want to vote from my comfortable pile (i.e likely not group-scum/mafia-pile).


I cannot see mafia-liopoil. Look at his posts:-

Shame-less chainsaw defence of Hydrad/Iguana:
"Hydrad wagon should move to seprix"
"With every post of Iguana I want to lynch him less."

Reminding us he should be insta-lynched due to his actions/desperate roleclaim:-
"I thinj the awaclus lynch was largely my fault for causing the ridiculous end-of-day."
"Interesting that I don't have much of a wagon yet." 
"If it comes down to "claim or we lynch you" then I will be lynched."


Has anyone who has played with liopoil seen him play a scum-game like this before?

[Melisandre]

Interesting remark from iguanaiguana:

Agree with almost all of this

Lio, would you mind analyzing your wagon? Who do you think is the most likely to be scum on it? Who is more likely town?

I've been thinking about this and it's tough. I'll also answer meli's question. The problem is that I think all the votes are bad votes, but that completely different from coming from scum. So:

Jan: Still hasn't specified why he thinks I'm scum, really. His questions were weird and he misconstrues what my posts mean a little. So that's a bit scummy.

Teproc: Interestingly he listed me as 'towny' a bit before he voted for me. Clearly those two posts if mine changed his mind. I'm interested to see how he responds to my defense, but right now I'd put it at slightly scummy.

RR: He didn't feel strongly enough to vote until after Teproc agreed, but that's just RR I think. He just wants his question to have meant something. Null to slight town, I guess.

J Reggie: A real cop-out vote, but honestly probably town. Too blatant for new scum, I think.

ADK: Unfortunate he's just going to leave his vote on town without saying anything the rest of the day. At least he tried to consider my reasoning though. Null, I suppose.

Ichi: His vote was the first time it made me think that there was a real chance I get lynched today, so pretty opportunistic. I'd say ADK's was even moreso though. I can understand his thought process the best though because we actually discussed, and well he has since quite sensibly unvoted, which I'm not sure scum would have taken the time to do. He also responded well to my questioning. Townread.

I am slightly biased to be more likely to townread those who seem to have considered more carefully.

Enough about me though, this is just a waste of time.

but I'm scumreading ADK out of this lio wagon.

How do you read that: in terms of how he was reading both liopoil and ADK?

[Melisandre]

That was the hammer.

liopoil (3): A Drowned Kernel, fontisian, Haddock
A Drowned Kernel (6): Roadrunner7671, silverspawn, gkrieg13, Melisandre, Jan, 2.71828.....
gkrieg13 (1): liopoil

Not Voting (1): Witherweaver

[liopoil]

oh wow my vote wasn't needed. Just got here

[Roadrunner7671]

There it is! 

[liopoil]

Let's hope he's an SK or other scumteam because that was a bit too easy and I still could have been lynched. Particularly jan and e get townpoints if he's scum I think. I would have swotched to ADK, but WW would probably have voted for me and that would have been 6.

[liopoil]

I guess fontisian, Haddock, and WW are all in scummy off-wagon spots if he has scumpartners, but two of those people are very towny. Maybe I should just wait for the flip.

[liopoil]

If he's town I'm not sure what I conclude. Probably that gkrieg is scum? Or whoever made us lynch outside of {WW, gkrieg} where I still think there is scum.

[Haddock]

Crappy time for the forum to misbehave.  I've been trying to post this (among other things) for ages.

So ADK is hammered? Hmm.  I don't think I like that we didn't let him claim. Or the lynch in general. But I guess it could be worse.

If ADK is town, e's hammer is pretty bad. There was still lots of time.

[Melisandre]

Are lynches without roleclaims common on here?

[Jan]

Vote Count 1.14

2.71828..... (1): A Drowned Kernel
liopoil (7): Teproc, Haddock, Hydrad, Awaclus, gkrieg13, Roadrunner7671, Jan
Seprix (1): 2.71828......
Hydrad (4): silverspawn, liopoil, Seprix, fontisian

Not Voting (3): Ichimaru Gin, Melisandre, J Reggie

So lets play with this votal a bit. This is liopoils wagon as its height.
A few what if scenarios to play around with.

For starters we can expect a mafia team of 4. (I will not play around with possible smaller scumteams for now because that is rather unless we get hints that guide us in that direction)

If liopoil is scum then :
2.71828..... (1): A Drowned Kernel
liopoil (7): Teproc, Haddock, Hydrad, Awaclus, gkrieg13, Roadrunner7671, Jan
Seprix (1): 2.71828......
Hydrad (4): silverspawn, liopoil, Seprix, fontisian

Not Voting (3): Ichimaru Gin, Melisandre, J Reggie

Just look at Teproc trying to get the lio wagon going again and Haddock jumping on that. He basically gave the wagon its fuel.

I explained why ADK is almost always town in that world, because he would not jump of a partners wagon the way he did, when lio is almsot always going down

Silverspawn and fonti both never voted for liopoil d1 (i think), which would make them possible partners.
Them both voting for Hydrad indicates that liopoil had more value to them than hydrad. either because he is less likely to get lynched later on, or because he is a pr.
I am unsure on the 2nd part ..

I think it is unlikely that gkrieg and e are partners because of es first readlist where he attacked/scumread gkrieg 3 or 4 times total, mostly for leaving the rvs vote on him.
So at most 1 between them regardless of the worlds.

Roadrunner and Melisandre are kind of wildcards.

So that is world 1 :

In that world fonti continued to bus hydrad d2 and then went over to bus lio today. (if she is scum)
While silver would have bussed d1/2 and then now move on to go for ADK.

e and gkrieg are split over both wagons today.
Melisandre and RR both voting ADK today.


Let's check out the other world ..

Well that was the hammer I think, posting this before night time begins. not sure if i can complete the 2nd world in time.

[Jan]

wanted to post that for like 30 minutes but the forum decided to be awful. was about to do the same for adk scum, but then e hammered.

[faust]

Day 3 Final Vote Count

liopoil (3): A Drowned Kernel, fontisian, Haddock
A Drowned Kernel (6): Roadrunner7671, silverspawn, gkrieg13, Melisandre, Jan, 2.71828.....
gkrieg13 (1): liopoil

Not Voting (1): Witherweaver

With 11 alive, it took 6 to lynch.

[faust]

It has been two weeks since the explosion, and now John is on his own. Three officers had died in the explosion, including Sgt Donovan. Miraculously, Sherlock survived, but lay in a hospital comatose and under constant guard; the government was unlikely to let him leave now that they tracked him down.

The incident has been all over the news, but it seems that no progress has been made so far in finding whoever set this underground lab up. The explosion had also blown most of the evidence away, which had no doubt been the intent.

John stares at the wall across, with the smiley face. Mrs Hudson has allowed him to stay in Sherlock's room, "until his recovery". John doubts that Sherlock will ever return. This time, there is no way out. John looks at the pictures on the table in front of him, pictures shot at the crime scene, courtesy of Lestrade. He knows it is up to him now to find the killers, but he only feels numb and empty.

After a while, John notices that he has received a message. The sender: unknown. The only text: "I needs to talk to you. You know where."

A Drowned Kernel has been lynched. He was a Vanilla Officer!

Night 3 starts now and ends June 22 at 9 am forum time. All night actions due within 24 hours.

THREAD LOCKED!

[faust]

John enters the abandoned industrial complex, remembering the last time he came. Is she really alive? It may well be a trap, but John is beyond caring. Let them catch him! Suddenly, he hears footsteps behind him, and whirls around.

"Molly? What are you doing here?"

"Someone... invited me. Something to do with Sherlock, they said. It wasn't you?"

"Something to do with Sherlock... indeed."

On the opposite side of the hall, another woman enters. Her hair is cut short, but there is no mistaking. John clears his throat. "Miss Adler."

"Please," she says. "Irene."

"What brings you here?"

"Revenge."


Molly and John drive to Baker Street together. "Do you really think we can find who did this?" Molly asks.

"We don't have any more information on who did this. If what Irene says is true, then the Golem is back in London. But he's just a henchman. He is not one to set up a secret lab."

"I... may have something." Molly says. "I did not think it important, after everything that happened. But I got the test results from your dead cat. Apparently, she was indeed sick. But not with kitty flu."

The taxi arrives, and Molly and John get out. "What then?"

"Ebola."

John opens his mouth to answer, but that moment, his gaze falls on Baker Street 221b. Yellow barrier tape hangs before it. No... Then he sees Mrs Hudson, standing in front of the building. "Mrs Hudson! What happened here?"

gkrieg13 has been killed! He was Bill Wiggins, the Mafia Even-Night (Ninja Bus Driver)!

Jan has been killed! He was a Vanilla Officer!

Melisandre has been killed. He was a Vanilla Officer!

Vote Count 4.0

Not Voting (7): liopoil, fontisian, silverspawn, Roadrunner7671, Haddock, 2.71828....., Witherweaver

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch. Day 4 starts now and ends June 29 at 9 am forum time.

[liopoil]

Wowowow. I mean it makes sense for there to be lots of deaths in a 16-player game but sheesh.

Okay, so I was right about gkrieg! That means we don't have to waste a lynch on him. Still, with 7 players I'm not sure if we can afford another mislynch (?).

Gkrieg was an even night bus driver, which I guess was only night two. So he may have switched one of the deaths I guess. What does ninja mean?

Seems terribly unlikely that those were the only two mafia, so today we ought to find another.

[Witherweaver]

Well, I took notes over the night.  Some are moot now but I'll post them anyway.

[liopoil]

The good thing that I only have to read 6 people! In no particular order:

Haddock is still town I think
E is really towny
Witherweaver isn't as scummy anymore
fontisian who knows really
silverspawn is towny
Roadrunner might be scummy, need to find out

That's just gut before having re-read much at all, very liable to change.

[Witherweaver]

Finishing up Jan reread:

Analyzes the end-of-day-1 Hydrad push. Is gone a good chunk of the day, comes back and proposes a planned time for some real-time discussion. Comes back closer to deadline. Seems to imply that his Lio town read was a ruse. A big post compiling votes, followed by some analysis. The effort is good, comes to the conclusion that ADK is morely scum than Liopoil based on Hydrad's late vote on Lio. This is a good point; Hydrad has no votes on him here, so not a likely position on bus for town cred. Hydrad could easily jump on Jan or e, but chooses the up-and-coming Lio wagon instead (had two votes and one stated willingness). Reasoning seems good.

Jan votes for ADK in the next post, putting him at L-1. He had the choice for ADK or Lio at L-1 here. e hammers shortly after, and Jan does some what-if analysis, which becomes mooted by the hammer.

Overall Jan looks townier than Day 2. If he's scum I guess he's doing some good work to look critical. Still a little iffy with his treatment of Hydrad/Iguana. I'd put him on slight-to-mid Town.

Still to read: Lio, e, Font, Melisandre, Haddock, Silverspawn. I guess I should do Lio next.

[Witherweaver]

Lio D1:

Starts of jokey, fine, null.
r218: Dislike, use of 'mislynch' implies RR is town; not evident even now, let alone early on D1. Scum more likely to strong townread RR early.
r366: Asks for scum Seprix games, I get an off feel from this post. Seems somehow disingenuous
r367: Criticizes ADK votes; I tend to agree with Lio here
r368: Votes Seprix; okay, kind of set it up two posts ago
r439: Defends his use of 'mislynch' on RR from before.. okay, I still don't like the first post
r444: Claims a gut town read on RR; I don't like it
r446: Votes Teproc for voting J Reggie. What gives.
r448: Weird post in which he unvotes Teproc while still kind of saying he's scum
r450: Town lean towards RR, J Reggie, Jan, ADK, Awaclus, scum leans on Seprix, font, Melisandre. Awaclus is a town lean for being 'Classic Awaclus', which is pretty bad. Also says he's town on SS in the next post.
r465: Explains his Teproc vote as a result of his 'next person to vote J Reggie is scum' thing from RVS. I'm not really sure what he was going for here. Though that do a cryptic thing for reactions is probably townier from Lio.
A few .. confrontational? posts follow.
r582: Continues generally argumentative or instigative including some self-aware metaposting.
Some back-and-forth with Ichi, gets Ichi to unvote.
r623: Analyzes wagon; Jan slight scum, Teproc slight scum, RR null to slight town, J Reggie town, ADK null, Ichi town, some more selfawareness.
r631: More reads, Jan and ADK have moved towards wanting to lynch, Meli has moved into don't want to lynch.
r671: Votes Jan
r697: Gives a lynch pool: Jan, Seprix, Hydrad, Haddock, Teproc, Gkrieg. Of course if you're Hydrad's partner you toss him in 'willing to lynch', but even as town you don't have a big reason to oppose it. Null here.
r698: Interesting, points against Lio being Hydrad's partner with the way he mentions him here.
Continues to argue towards Jan lynch
r840: Responds to Hydrad voting him. As I mentioned before (in regards to Jan pointing it out, I think), Hydrad voting for Lio here points against them being partners.
r845: More of the calling himself out on things before anyone else can. I don't really know what to make of this tactic.
r962: Voted Hydrad while calling his wagon terrible. Now this feels more like a bus; Lio now looks like he's going to be the lynch and goes for distancing. Also has a bit of a "caught for the wrong reasons" feel.
r969: More self-awareness, would be more compelling if it wasn't Lio himself stating this. Well, he does have a point; his posts are more quick and reactive instead of the carefully constructed we expect from scum. On the other hand he shows here he's aware of that. Should maybe look back to Dice Mafia. Who has the time though?
r970: Argues for lynching lurkers; well if Hydrad was a bus he's doubling down on it.
Continues to argue towards Hydrad
r995: This is sounding town. "I'm town, and useful, so I am a terribad lynch".
r1023: Moves to Seprix when Hydrad lynch is not looking like it's going to happen.
r1029: More metawareness
r1114: Goes back to Hydrad
r1132: Votes Awaclus

Takes us to end of Day 1. A bit of a rollercoaster. I think his end of Day 1 makes him look townier, even if not pro-town. Scum rarely acts that way in the face of getting lynched. Also Hydrad... a few points against partners, one for.. not too likely.

[Witherweaver]

Lio D2:

Says he'll be playing differently, takes blame for the way the end of day worked out.  Is VLA for a bit. 
r1288: Surprised people aren't still trying to lynch him; states he's not claiming this game
r1289: Questions Jan regarding end of D1.  I had similar questions rereading Jan
r1313: Town on Seprix because of end of D1.  Could be manufactured.  Is suspicious of Iguana/Hydrad due to resistance of his lynch at the end of D1. (Well in all fairness, you seemed immune to lynching given how close you were multiple times)
r1384: Scum on Font for an Iguana vote
r1385: Says everyone but him and J Reggie are voting Iguana for no sufficiently justified reason.  I don't understand the point of this, as either alignment.  You don't have to divulge a reason for voting someone.
r1410: Lynch candidates: Teproc (dude), Iguana, Jan, Font.  Townreads: himself, e, RR, SS, Haddock, Meli.  ADK, Seprix, J Reggie, Gkrieg are implied null. 
r1413: States reservations about all four lynch candidates.  This feels townie.
r1463: "With every post of Iguana I want to lynch him less."  Bold if Lio is scum
r1527: Considers e's reads post that was under such contention to be of high quality, even though (I think) this was a mock-reads post that was criticizing Jan.  I think Gkrieg did the same thign.  Points to scum Lio and town e. 
r1605: J Reggie has moved to town, says he's considering ADK (who I guess has moved over to scum) and Font now.  Why ADK?
r1612: Votes font
r1646: Explains font vote, says it's feeling, sort of a 'in-the-background scum' kind of thing.  Feels honest and townie from Lio. 
r1647: Wagon preferences font > ADK >>>> Iguana > J Reggie
r1659, 1660: Iguana is at L-1, could hammer, is on font but considers moving to ADK.
r1665: Pushes ADK or Fontsian 
Seems resigned to Iguana getting lynched, which he opposes.  Leaves vote on Font and says he'll be gone for deadline. I think scum Lio is more likely to bus his partner at some point throughout all of this.

Day 2 ends.  Pretty vocal against the Iguana lynch.  A lot of the time scum doesn't like to be so strongly vocal about defending a partner, though sometimes you do it for exactly that reason.  Hmmm.. what I don't like here is that he began with some reason to want to lynch Iguana, and then seemed to drop it once lynching Iguana became a thing.  Changed mind or not wanting to follow through with bus?  I'm now waffling on Lio.

[Witherweaver]

Lio D3:

r1816: First thing I really read from Lio.  I voted here because "hey I'm town.  I can use the fact that I'm town to help me read things.  Even though we, as town, (did I mention I was town so I'm included in 'we'?) have had some bad deaths we're (Hey, I'm part of we, we means town.  Did I mention I'm town?) are in good shape."  Lots of red flags here.  Also the "we're in good shape" thing is one of those phrases that it feels to me that scum says.
r1818: Says I'm likely scum.  Probably because I was off the Iguana wagon.  Not that I was around at all when lynches were happening.  Interestingly, I originally came in thinking Iguana felt scummy (you guys can check the speccy after this), and talked myself away from it.  Would I have gone for him towards the end of the day?  Hard to say.
r1827: Says neighbor/jailkeeper Seprix probably found scum the prevoius night.  Not sure why this would be.
r1829: A pointless arithmetic post.  Perhaps more pointless than the armada of pointless arithmetic posts people like to do in Mafia games on this forum given that you can cherry-pick what numbers you want to be in there. 
r1835: Oh, Seprix found scum N1, that's what he maent.  That means we had two kills Night 1 and one got blocked.  Would Seprix have known this going into D2?  Well, or Seprix's target could have been killed; he doctors too.  Not sure if there's good info there.
r1842: Okay, now Lio is repeating me... preemptively.  Okay I probably read these before and didn't really pay enough attention. 
r1867: Votes me, that's poor.  Also says "voting for me is scummy because at this point scum really ought to mislynch me.", which I don't get. 
r1887: Thinks Haddock is town because of his slip.  Someone (Font?) brings up that being a different killing faction is equally valid as a legitimate slip, but Lio doesn't consider this, which is itself suspicious. 
r1921: Why is the Mafia team any more likely to have killed Seprix than an SK?  Why are we assuming Mafia + SK instead of multiball?
r1924: Doubles down on town-Haddock. 
r1949: Votes gkrieg following Haddock.  gkrieg was the scummiest of the people I've read
r2004: Yes, I hadn't read that before. 
r2023: Considers ADK could be scum on a different team than Iguana. 
r2026: :/ Notes how the Awaclus quickhammer at the end of D1 points towards Lio being scum with some of the late Awaclus voters.  All that's missing here is the "I wouldn't point this out as scum, would I?" statement.
r2044: Says ADK looks bad, among others.
ADK becomes the popular choice, Lio says he'd probably vote, and ADK gets hammered without Lio having to vote.

Okay that brings us up to present on Lio.  There's a lot of polar feelings here.. some feels pretty town, some feels pretty scummy.  I think I'd lynch Lio above Jan.  I think Gkrieg above Lio.  Of those I've read, it probably looks like:

Gkrieg > Lio > Jan > RR.

ADK would have been at the bottom; I don't get why he got lynched. 

[Witherweaver]

So Gkrieg being scum makes Lio less likely.  I still need to reread e, Font, Haddock, Silver.  Left is Lio and RR.  RR is getting worse by default.  The big thing against scum!RR was how he was treating Hydrad/Iguana.. it's not impossible for scum!RR to do that.  Still, decent chance scum is in the unread people.

[Witherweaver]

So.. three deaths.