Dominion Strategy Forum

Please login or register.

Login with username, password and session length
Pages: 1 ... 138 139 [140] 141  All

Author Topic: The Necro Wars  (Read 129069 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

silverspawn

  • Adventurer
  • ******
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 5079
  • Shuffle iT Username: sty.silver
    • View Profile
Re: The Necro Wars
« Reply #3475 on: May 14, 2022, 05:02:11 pm »

Logged

silverspawn

  • Adventurer
  • ******
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 5079
  • Shuffle iT Username: sty.silver
    • View Profile
Re: The Necro Wars
« Reply #3476 on: May 15, 2022, 06:20:52 pm »

Logged

silverspawn

  • Adventurer
  • ******
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 5079
  • Shuffle iT Username: sty.silver
    • View Profile
Re: The Necro Wars
« Reply #3477 on: May 16, 2022, 05:00:44 am »

So the Effective Altruist Carrick Flynn (running for a House seat in Oregon) has been backed by a Crypto Billionaire who spent >10 million dollars on Flynn's campaign. Despite this, it's still a very close race. Exciting stuff.

What they never mention is that said billionaire has pledged to donate not 10% but virtually all of his money over the course of his life. This 10 million PAC is just one such instance. But something tells me that most people won't see it that way.
Logged

silverspawn

  • Adventurer
  • ******
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 5079
  • Shuffle iT Username: sty.silver
    • View Profile
Re: The Necro Wars
« Reply #3478 on: May 16, 2022, 05:03:53 am »

I really want him to win. If nothing else, let's see how well an EA does in Congress. Either result will be informative.
Logged

faust

  • Board Moderator
  • *
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 3126
  • Shuffle iT Username: faust
    • View Profile
Re: The Necro Wars
« Reply #3479 on: May 16, 2022, 10:14:39 am »

So the Effective Altruist Carrick Flynn (running for a House seat in Oregon) has been backed by a Crypto Billionaire who spent >10 million dollars on Flynn's campaign. Despite this, it's still a very close race. Exciting stuff.

What they never mention is that said billionaire has pledged to donate not 10% but virtually all of his money over the course of his life. This 10 million PAC is just one such instance. But something tells me that most people won't see it that way.
Yeah, supporting legislation that is beneficial to you personally is not a charitable donation.

Are there any policies that Flynn has to be excited about? A cursory glance at his website just reveals milquetoast center-right Democrat talking points, including
Quote
We need to work together, from both sides of the aisle.
Working together with the current Republican party is akin to working together with the NSDAP in the Weimar Republic. And, shocker, that is exactly what centrists did back then.
Logged
The quiet comprehending of the ending of it all

silverspawn

  • Adventurer
  • ******
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 5079
  • Shuffle iT Username: sty.silver
    • View Profile
Re: The Necro Wars
« Reply #3480 on: May 16, 2022, 01:54:20 pm »

yes, pandemic prevention! See e.g. this interview and article.

I do agree that the website looks very milktoast, although at least prettier than most.
Logged

silverspawn

  • Adventurer
  • ******
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 5079
  • Shuffle iT Username: sty.silver
    • View Profile
Re: The Necro Wars
« Reply #3481 on: May 16, 2022, 01:54:36 pm »

Quote
Pandemics are just such a neglected risk, and preventing them has become a major EA concern, one shared by Flynn. Pandemic preparedness is a longstanding priority for him Flynn started working in the biosecurity community in 2015, and when Covid-19 hit, he immediately dropped his other priorities to focus on it. He was frustrated that even during a deadly pandemic, Congress gave expert proposals about prevention a lukewarm reception at best, and says that he hopes he can play a role in Congress as the champion for the issue.
Logged

silverspawn

  • Adventurer
  • ******
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 5079
  • Shuffle iT Username: sty.silver
    • View Profile
Re: The Necro Wars
« Reply #3482 on: May 16, 2022, 01:56:03 pm »

Yeah, supporting legislation that is beneficial to you personally is not a charitable donation.

I think he's doing it because he also cares deeply about pandemic prevention -- which I realize probably sounds very naive to you.
Logged

silverspawn

  • Adventurer
  • ******
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 5079
  • Shuffle iT Username: sty.silver
    • View Profile
Re: The Necro Wars
« Reply #3483 on: May 16, 2022, 01:59:37 pm »

I know little about the topic, but I do think engineered pandemics rank pretty high in the list of x-risks, probably number 2. The way I think about it ever since I've heard it put that way is to imagine the Venn Diagram of (a) people who would try to kill as many people as possible if they could (small set, but not empty) and (b) people who are capable of engineering and spreading a virus. Currently these two sets don't overlap, but the second one is growing  with increased knowledge in biology, and sooner or later they will overlap.
Logged

silverspawn

  • Adventurer
  • ******
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 5079
  • Shuffle iT Username: sty.silver
    • View Profile
Re: The Necro Wars
« Reply #3484 on: May 16, 2022, 03:23:48 pm »

I've spent far too much time playing MTG arena in the last couple of weeks, and I seem to have crafted a deck that beats everything that's popular in the current format. This doesn't seem like ti should be possible, but it... is?

Gonna track my winrate from now on. Also gonna track starting player odds while I'm at it, let's see if we get another <0.01% chance
Logged

silverspawn

  • Adventurer
  • ******
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 5079
  • Shuffle iT Username: sty.silver
    • View Profile
Re: The Necro Wars
« Reply #3485 on: May 16, 2022, 04:32:01 pm »

7-0
Logged

silverspawn

  • Adventurer
  • ******
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 5079
  • Shuffle iT Username: sty.silver
    • View Profile
Re: The Necro Wars
« Reply #3486 on: May 17, 2022, 08:16:20 am »

Metaculus gives Flynn 30%, PredictIt 51%. This is really dumb. I have no idea who is right, but a 20% gap just hows how embarrassing the state of prediction markets is. Metaculus is not a market, but the people betting there ought to buy NO on Predictit, which probably doesn't do much because of the 850$ limit per person
Logged

faust

  • Board Moderator
  • *
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 3126
  • Shuffle iT Username: faust
    • View Profile
Re: The Necro Wars
« Reply #3488 on: May 17, 2022, 11:23:02 am »

Yeah, supporting legislation that is beneficial to you personally is not a charitable donation.

I think he's doing it because he also cares deeply about pandemic prevention -- which I realize probably sounds very naive to you.
Just to be clear, when I made that comment about charitable donations, I was talking about the billionaire backer, not the candidate Flynn himself.
Logged
The quiet comprehending of the ending of it all

faust

  • Board Moderator
  • *
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 3126
  • Shuffle iT Username: faust
    • View Profile
Re: The Necro Wars
« Reply #3489 on: May 17, 2022, 11:27:55 am »

Metaculus gives Flynn 30%, PredictIt 51%. This is really dumb. I have no idea who is right, but a 20% gap just hows how embarrassing the state of prediction markets is. Metaculus is not a market, but the people betting there ought to buy NO on Predictit, which probably doesn't do much because of the 850$ limit per person
Well, a primary for some local seat in the House seems like a pretty low-level affair, it's no wonder to me that there would be a large variation.
Logged
The quiet comprehending of the ending of it all

Awaclus

  • Adventurer
  • ******
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 11561
  • Shuffle iT Username: Awaclus
  • (。 ω 。`)
    • View Profile
Re: The Necro Wars
« Reply #3490 on: May 17, 2022, 05:14:44 pm »

A relatively small and entertaining group of Finnish people is incredibly disappointed that the MPs they voted for have changed their mind regarding Finland's NATO membership since the election.

It seems pretty weird to expect candidates to never change their minds. If anything, I'd much rather vote for a candidate who I disagree with on some issues but whose ability to evaluate new evidence and re-examine their own views I can more or less trust, than a candidate who shares literally all of my opinions and will stay wrong when I change my mind later.
Logged
Bomb, Cannon, and many of the Gunpowder cards can strongly effect gameplay, particularly in a destructive way

The Twitch channel where I stream DominionThe YouTube channel where I make musicDownload my band's CC-licensed albums for free

silverspawn

  • Adventurer
  • ******
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 5079
  • Shuffle iT Username: sty.silver
    • View Profile
Re: The Necro Wars
« Reply #3491 on: May 17, 2022, 05:30:23 pm »

Yeah, supporting legislation that is beneficial to you personally is not a charitable donation.

I think he's doing it because he also cares deeply about pandemic prevention -- which I realize probably sounds very naive to you.
Just to be clear, when I made that comment about charitable donations, I was talking about the billionaire backer, not the candidate Flynn himself.

Yeah, i know. But the billionaire is also known for caring about pandemic prevention. I'm saying he backed Carrick because he cares about p/p and knows that Carrick does as well (he's done technical work on it before).
Logged

faust

  • Board Moderator
  • *
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 3126
  • Shuffle iT Username: faust
    • View Profile
Re: The Necro Wars
« Reply #3492 on: May 18, 2022, 03:37:28 am »

A relatively small and entertaining group of Finnish people is incredibly disappointed that the MPs they voted for have changed their mind regarding Finland's NATO membership since the election.

It seems pretty weird to expect candidates to never change their minds. If anything, I'd much rather vote for a candidate who I disagree with on some issues but whose ability to evaluate new evidence and re-examine their own views I can more or less trust, than a candidate who shares literally all of my opinions and will stay wrong when I change my mind later.
This seems like a strawman? I'm pretty sure that those people generally are fine with MPs changing their minds, they just disagree with that particular change of mind. But it's of course a general shortcoming of representative systems that it's not easy to factor in the public's reaction to new evidence (though from what I can tell in this particular instance, Finland joining NATO seems to have pretty broad support).
Logged
The quiet comprehending of the ending of it all

faust

  • Board Moderator
  • *
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 3126
  • Shuffle iT Username: faust
    • View Profile
Re: The Necro Wars
« Reply #3493 on: May 18, 2022, 03:40:52 am »

Yeah, supporting legislation that is beneficial to you personally is not a charitable donation.

I think he's doing it because he also cares deeply about pandemic prevention -- which I realize probably sounds very naive to you.
Just to be clear, when I made that comment about charitable donations, I was talking about the billionaire backer, not the candidate Flynn himself.

Yeah, i know. But the billionaire is also known for caring about pandemic prevention. I'm saying he backed Carrick because he cares about p/p and knows that Carrick does as well (he's done technical work on it before).
I suppose it's not impossible but it seems there are much more effective ways of spending your money if that's what you want to achieve. He also backed Mitt Romney before, and nothing says "I'm a billionaire and want to keep my money" like backing Mitt Romney.
Logged
The quiet comprehending of the ending of it all

Awaclus

  • Adventurer
  • ******
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 11561
  • Shuffle iT Username: Awaclus
  • (。 ω 。`)
    • View Profile
Re: The Necro Wars
« Reply #3494 on: May 18, 2022, 04:38:00 am »

A relatively small and entertaining group of Finnish people is incredibly disappointed that the MPs they voted for have changed their mind regarding Finland's NATO membership since the election.

It seems pretty weird to expect candidates to never change their minds. If anything, I'd much rather vote for a candidate who I disagree with on some issues but whose ability to evaluate new evidence and re-examine their own views I can more or less trust, than a candidate who shares literally all of my opinions and will stay wrong when I change my mind later.
This seems like a strawman? I'm pretty sure that those people generally are fine with MPs changing their minds, they just disagree with that particular change of mind. But it's of course a general shortcoming of representative systems that it's not easy to factor in the public's reaction to new evidence (though from what I can tell in this particular instance, Finland joining NATO seems to have pretty broad support).

Possibly I should have said enraged instead of disappointed, and clarified that I'm talking about the group that thinks the decision is being made undemocratically (who also thinks the surveys demonstrating the broad support are fake news or not reliable because "nobody asked for my opinion"). I'm sure there are people who are disappointed but reasonable about it too, but those people aren't particularly entertaining.
Logged
Bomb, Cannon, and many of the Gunpowder cards can strongly effect gameplay, particularly in a destructive way

The Twitch channel where I stream DominionThe YouTube channel where I make musicDownload my band's CC-licensed albums for free

silverspawn

  • Adventurer
  • ******
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 5079
  • Shuffle iT Username: sty.silver
    • View Profile
Re: The Necro Wars
« Reply #3495 on: May 18, 2022, 10:31:08 am »

Yeah, supporting legislation that is beneficial to you personally is not a charitable donation.

I think he's doing it because he also cares deeply about pandemic prevention -- which I realize probably sounds very naive to you.
Just to be clear, when I made that comment about charitable donations, I was talking about the billionaire backer, not the candidate Flynn himself.

Yeah, i know. But the billionaire is also known for caring about pandemic prevention. I'm saying he backed Carrick because he cares about p/p and knows that Carrick does as well (he's done technical work on it before).
I suppose it's not impossible but it seems there are much more effective ways of spending your money if that's what you want to achieve.

I don't think this is obvious. I mean, he has spent plenty of money in other ways. But I don't think 10 million to get an EA into congress who cares about this topic is an unreasonable thing to do, even if you are strictly in the mindset of maximizing results
Logged

silverspawn

  • Adventurer
  • ******
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 5079
  • Shuffle iT Username: sty.silver
    • View Profile
Re: The Necro Wars
« Reply #3496 on: May 18, 2022, 10:32:47 am »

but he lost so... :(
Logged

silverspawn

  • Adventurer
  • ******
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 5079
  • Shuffle iT Username: sty.silver
    • View Profile
Re: The Necro Wars
« Reply #3497 on: May 18, 2022, 10:33:36 am »

That was not close at all, 37% to 19%.
Logged

silverspawn

  • Adventurer
  • ******
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 5079
  • Shuffle iT Username: sty.silver
    • View Profile
Re: The Necro Wars
« Reply #3498 on: May 18, 2022, 10:37:05 am »

God people in Nate Silver's twitter replies are always so incredibly stupid
Logged

silverspawn

  • Adventurer
  • ******
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 5079
  • Shuffle iT Username: sty.silver
    • View Profile
Re: The Necro Wars
« Reply #3499 on: May 18, 2022, 10:40:59 am »

Also worth saying that EA is in general extremely reluctant to get into politics; this was a very novel thing. And since it failed...
Logged
Pages: 1 ... 138 139 [140] 141  All
 

Page created in 0.176 seconds with 20 queries.