Dominion Strategy Forum

Please login or register.

Login with username, password and session length
Pages: 1 ... 55 56 [57] 58 59 ... 273  All

Author Topic: The Necro Wars  (Read 343296 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

faust

  • Board Moderator
  • *
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 3383
  • Shuffle iT Username: faust
    • View Profile
Re: The Necro Wars
« Reply #1400 on: October 08, 2021, 04:35:28 pm »

Quote
He is the richest man alive, so clearly extremely poorly.

No, this inference doesn't work at all. Tesla and SpaceX both had small probabilities to succeed, both according to the base rate and according to Elon Musk himself. (I think he said about 10% chance for SpaceX.) Throwing all your money into doing something that no-one has ever managed to do before with the probable outcome that you go bankrupt is an enormous sacrifice, and the fact that he got lucky doesn't change this.

It's also not surprising that he got lucky, that's just the survivorship bias. There are probably a bunch of people like him who took similar risks and didn't get lucky, and that's why we're not talking about them now.
I don't know how you define sacrifice, but someone going to a casino, betting it all on a single outcome, and winning, is not a sacrifice in my book.
(Side note I doubt that bankruptcy is as bad for rich people as you made it out to be; didn't Trump go bankrupt multiple times?)

And working all day is also a big personal sacrifice.
It's not a sacrifice if you do it for selfish reasons.

Same reason for his motivations; if you want to get rich, neither SpaceX nor Tesla nor OpenAI nor the Boring Company are even slightly rational projects.
Well I'm not the only claiming that Musk is a perfect rational being, you are.
Logged
You say the ocean's rising, like I give a shit
You say the whole world's ending, honey it already did

faust

  • Board Moderator
  • *
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 3383
  • Shuffle iT Username: faust
    • View Profile
Re: The Necro Wars
« Reply #1401 on: October 08, 2021, 04:37:17 pm »

Also:

I don't think anyone should work more than 40h/week, and I don't think it's a moral good to do more than that.

If I were only allowed to work 40 hours a week, I would have had no chance to finish the paper I'm working on by November. That's like 6 hours a day. I don't know where I'm at, and it varies, but it's certainly more than that. I think Musk does about 16.
Well I'm not planning to introduce a law. I realize that the current system doesn't always allow sensible working hours. It's still good for people with exposure to set a good example, and working long hours is the opposite of that.
Logged
You say the ocean's rising, like I give a shit
You say the whole world's ending, honey it already did

silverspawn

  • Adventurer
  • ******
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 5318
  • Shuffle iT Username: sty.silver
    • View Profile
Re: The Necro Wars
« Reply #1402 on: October 08, 2021, 05:00:47 pm »

Well I'm not the only claiming that Musk is a perfect rational being, you are.

If Musk were a good rationalist, OpenAI wouldn't be called OpenAI. I think he's extremely hard working and selfless, but that's not the same thing.

silverspawn

  • Adventurer
  • ******
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 5318
  • Shuffle iT Username: sty.silver
    • View Profile
Re: The Necro Wars
« Reply #1403 on: October 08, 2021, 05:09:13 pm »

We can do this all day and you can come up with an explanation for any one thing Musk did, but the overarching question is why one should believe this complex model with all those extra explanations for strange behaviors rather than the very simple model which is to just take what he says as true. He told us why he founded SpaceX and why he founded Tesla, this fits with the objective facts about both companies, and if fits with his other oddities, e.g. promising to donate his entire fortune before his death

faust

  • Board Moderator
  • *
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 3383
  • Shuffle iT Username: faust
    • View Profile
Re: The Necro Wars
« Reply #1404 on: October 08, 2021, 05:22:14 pm »

Elon Musk didn't found Tesla by the way.
Logged
You say the ocean's rising, like I give a shit
You say the whole world's ending, honey it already did

faust

  • Board Moderator
  • *
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 3383
  • Shuffle iT Username: faust
    • View Profile
Re: The Necro Wars
« Reply #1405 on: October 08, 2021, 05:27:32 pm »

And surely if you pick and choose what you want to consider you can fit it to your simple model, but I'm not sure how sending a giant 2 to Jeffrey Bezos or accusing random strangers of pedophilia are done because he thinks they have the greatest positive impact for humanity. Or the Boring Company for that matter.

My simple model is that no person can be good and also own a billion dollars, and all observed data fits with it.
Logged
You say the ocean's rising, like I give a shit
You say the whole world's ending, honey it already did

silverspawn

  • Adventurer
  • ******
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 5318
  • Shuffle iT Username: sty.silver
    • View Profile
Re: The Necro Wars
« Reply #1406 on: October 08, 2021, 06:12:17 pm »

I haven't heard of either of those things but I'll google them

silverspawn

  • Adventurer
  • ******
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 5318
  • Shuffle iT Username: sty.silver
    • View Profile
Re: The Necro Wars
« Reply #1407 on: October 09, 2021, 12:19:43 am »

Ah. Well, I don't think that the silver medal joke requires stretching the model. Being a moral hero doesn't preclude having a sense of humor.

silverspawn

  • Adventurer
  • ******
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 5318
  • Shuffle iT Username: sty.silver
    • View Profile
Re: The Necro Wars
« Reply #1408 on: October 09, 2021, 09:31:16 am »

Relatedly, Eliezer Yudkowsky says that

Quote
Nothing else Elon Musk has done can possibly make up for how hard the "OpenAI" launch trashed humanity's chances of survival [...] Previously all the AGI people were at the same conference talking about how humanity was going to handle this together.  Elon Musk didn't like Demis Hassabis, so he blew that up.  That's the impact of his life.  The end.

Which is a nice test of consistency for me, but I hold that Elon's character isn't meaningfully affected even if his total net impact on the world is massively negative. It just is a fact that you can't draw anything like a straight line between character and impact. One incorrect belief from an otherwise wonderful person is enough to derail their entire life's work (see Megan Phelps)

silverspawn

  • Adventurer
  • ******
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 5318
  • Shuffle iT Username: sty.silver
    • View Profile
Re: The Necro Wars
« Reply #1409 on: October 09, 2021, 09:39:32 am »

I think the central post to read to understand the  faust / me disagreement (which is just a classification, not an argument for either sided) is [conflict vs. mistake theory](https://slatestarcodex.com/2018/01/24/conflict-vs-mistake/) from now Astral Codex Tan. The observation is that most people have one of two world views, either...

(@faust, correct me if this doesn't describe you fairly)

- Conflict theory (faust): Many people are generally bad people, and making the world a better place is about beating the people who are pushing into the wrong thing
- Mistake theory (me): Almost all people (or at least, almost all people who matter) are generally good but make mistakes, and making the world a better place is about collectively fixing mistakes

As a mistake theorist (not categorically, but as a broad description of how the world works), the most difficult thing to cope with is how systems full of well-intentioned people produce bad results, like Elon and the billionaires he called to found OpenAI if that take is true, or the FDA, or the people who let Covid escape from a lab if the lab leak hypothesis is true, or many political systems

faust

  • Board Moderator
  • *
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 3383
  • Shuffle iT Username: faust
    • View Profile
Re: The Necro Wars
« Reply #1410 on: October 09, 2021, 01:25:09 pm »

I think the central post to read to understand the  faust / me disagreement (which is just a classification, not an argument for either sided) is [conflict vs. mistake theory](https://slatestarcodex.com/2018/01/24/conflict-vs-mistake/) from now Astral Codex Tan. The observation is that most people have one of two world views, either...

(@faust, correct me if this doesn't describe you fairly)

- Conflict theory (faust): Many people are generally bad people, and making the world a better place is about beating the people who are pushing into the wrong thing
- Mistake theory (me): Almost all people (or at least, almost all people who matter) are generally good but make mistakes, and making the world a better place is about collectively fixing mistakes

As a mistake theorist (not categorically, but as a broad description of how the world works), the most difficult thing to cope with is how systems full of well-intentioned people produce bad results, like Elon and the billionaires he called to found OpenAI if that take is true, or the FDA, or the people who let Covid escape from a lab if the lab leak hypothesis is true, or many political systems
This doesn't describe me at all. I skimmed the linked article and as far as I can tell the author doesn't understand Marxism. It seems that this so-called "conflict theory" is little more than a convenient strawman. Maybe it describes far-right ideology better but I doubt it.

But I also don't ascribe to the view that any conflict can be resolved through civilised debate. The idea that people are rational actors in politics is fairly ridiculous to me. People are formed through their circumstances. The current capitalist system enforces hierarchy and self-indulgence, so people growing up under that system tend to think that their needs are more important than those of others, and that they are better than others. This is not because people are intrinsically bad, but because they grow up in a terrible system.

The people that are rewarded in capitalism are people who adhere to the system, and this is why people who expose the worst tendencies tend to rise to the top.
Logged
You say the ocean's rising, like I give a shit
You say the whole world's ending, honey it already did

silverspawn

  • Adventurer
  • ******
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 5318
  • Shuffle iT Username: sty.silver
    • View Profile
Re: The Necro Wars
« Reply #1411 on: October 09, 2021, 01:56:51 pm »

So you disagree with conflict theory how? Conflict theory just means that achieving good outcomes is done by winning against people who want the wrong thing.

silverspawn

  • Adventurer
  • ******
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 5318
  • Shuffle iT Username: sty.silver
    • View Profile
Re: The Necro Wars
« Reply #1412 on: October 09, 2021, 02:01:33 pm »

Also, the article doesn't make any claim about marxism and the conflict / mistake axis is orthogonal to the left/right axis. You can be a centrist or conservative and a conflict theorist or a maxist and a mistake theorist. But you just said that you don't like mistake theory, and you haven't said anything that disagrees with conflict theory.

silverspawn

  • Adventurer
  • ******
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 5318
  • Shuffle iT Username: sty.silver
    • View Profile
Re: The Necro Wars
« Reply #1413 on: October 09, 2021, 02:24:18 pm »

Well in any case, if you don't identify with the description, there's little I can do about that. But my understanding of conflict theory is compatible with anything I recall you saying about politics, certainly with believing that the capitalist system is at fault rather than the people. And I should add that there are plenty of people who identify as mistake theorists after reading the article, although there were some who like you have complained about the portrayal of marxism

faust

  • Board Moderator
  • *
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 3383
  • Shuffle iT Username: faust
    • View Profile
Re: The Necro Wars
« Reply #1414 on: October 09, 2021, 04:52:01 pm »

Also, the article doesn't make any claim about marxism
Quote from: article
Also why, whenever existing governments are bad, Marxists immediately jump to the conclusion that they must be run by evil people who want them to be bad on purpose.
Logged
You say the ocean's rising, like I give a shit
You say the whole world's ending, honey it already did

silverspawn

  • Adventurer
  • ******
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 5318
  • Shuffle iT Username: sty.silver
    • View Profile
Re: The Necro Wars
« Reply #1415 on: October 09, 2021, 05:01:21 pm »

Consider the statement retracted

faust

  • Board Moderator
  • *
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 3383
  • Shuffle iT Username: faust
    • View Profile
Re: The Necro Wars
« Reply #1416 on: October 09, 2021, 05:18:08 pm »

So you disagree with conflict theory how? Conflict theory just means that achieving good outcomes is done by winning against people who want the wrong thing.
Oh well this is going to take some time isn't it?

Quote
Mistake theorists treat politics as science, engineering, or medicine. The State is diseased. We’re all doctors, standing around arguing over the best diagnosis and cure. Some of us have good ideas, others have bad ideas that wouldn’t help, or that would cause too many side effects.

Conflict theorists treat politics as war. Different blocs with different interests are forever fighting to determine whether the State exists to enrich the Elites or to help the People.
I do not identify with either of these beliefs. I think it's silly to act as though there is an objective best way to run the government. I also don't think politics is war. There are systemic structures that work against people finding consensus, but ideally politics should be consensus-based. That also means giving everyone an equal say, which is not the case right now.

Quote
Mistake theorists view debate as essential. We all bring different forms of expertise to the table, and once we all understand the whole situation, we can use wisdom-of-crowds to converge on the treatment plan that best fits the need of our mutual patient, the State. Who wins on any particular issue is less important creating an environment where truth can generally prevail over the long term.

Conflict theorists view debate as having a minor clarifying role at best. You can “debate” with your boss over whether or not you get a raise, but only with the shared understanding that you’re naturally on opposite sides, and the “winner” will be based less on objective moral principles than on how much power each of you has. If your boss appeals too many times to objective moral principles, he’s probably offering you a crappy deal.
I mean clearly in the example of debating with a boss there is some issue of power differential, but that doesn't mean that debate has no use. I don't actually understand what the author thinks the "conflict theory" position is here anyway.

Quote
Mistake theorists treat different sides as symmetrical. There’s the side that wants to increase the interest rate, and the side that wants to decrease it. Both sides have about the same number of people. Both sides include some trustworthy experts and some loudmouth trolls. Both sides are equally motivated by trying to get a good economy. The only interesting difference is which one turns out (after all the statistics have been double-checked and all the relevant points have been debated) to be right about the matter at hand.

Conflict theorists treat the asymmetry of sides as their first and most important principle. The Elites are few in number, but have lots of money and influence. The People are many but poor – yet their spirit is indomitable and their hearts are true. The Elites’ strategy will always be to sow dissent and confusion; the People’s strategy must be to remain united. Politics is won or lost by how well each side plays its respective hand.
I don't even think there is a dichotomy here. Some conflicts are symmetrical and some aren't, and how they are analysed should probably take note of that. I do take issue with the idea that there is always a "right" answer.

Quote
Mistake theorists think you can save the world by increasing intelligence. You make technocrats smart enough to determine the best policy. You make politicians smart enough to choose the right technocrats and implement their advice effectively. And you make voters smart enough to recognize the smartest politicians and sweep them into office.

Conflict theorists think you can save the world by increasing passion. The rich and powerful win because they already work together effectively; the poor and powerless will win only once they unite and stand up for themselves. You want activists tirelessly informing everybody of the important causes that they need to fight for. You want community organizers forming labor unions or youth groups. You want protesters ready on short notice whenever the enemy tries to pull a fast one. And you want voters show up every time, and who know which candidates are really fighting for the people vs. just astroturfed shills.
The concept of intelligence is vague and ill-defined. And don't believe passion is inherently good or bad. I think the way to save the world is to increase compassion.

Quote
Mistake theorists think that free speech and open debate are vital, the most important things. Imagine if your doctor said you needed a medication from Pfizer – but later you learned that Pfizer owned the hospital, and fired doctors who prescribed other companies’ drugs, and that the local medical school refused to teach anything about non-Pfizer medications, and studies claiming Pfizer medications had side effects were ruthlessly suppressed. It would be a total farce, and you’d get out of that hospital as soon as possible into one that allowed all viewpoints.

Conflict theorists think of free speech and open debate about the same way a 1950s Bircher would treat avowed Soviet agents coming into neighborhoods and trying to convince people of the merits of Communism. Or the way the average infantryman would think of enemy planes dropping pamphlets saying “YOU CANNOT WIN, SURRENDER NOW”. Anybody who says it’s good to let the enemy walk in and promote enemy ideas is probably an enemy agent.
I think free speech and open debate are vital. I also think many of the people advocating for so-called "free speech" do not really want free speech, but rather immunity from criticism.

Quote
Mistake theorists think it’s silly to complain about George Soros, or the Koch brothers. The important thing is to evaluate the arguments; it doesn’t matter who developed them.

Conflict theorists think that stopping George Soros / the Koch brothers is the most important thing in the world. Also, they’re going to send me angry messages saying I’m totally unfair to equate righteous crusaders for the People like George Soros / the Koch brothers with evil selfish arch-Elites like the Koch brothers / George Soros.
Again, I do not believe worrying about individual people is all that helpful. So long as a hierarchy-enforcing system is in place, it will always produce new Koch brothers, so fighting against them personally is pretty much pointless.

Quote
Mistake theorists think racism is a cognitive bias. White racists have mistakenly inferred that black people are dumber or more criminal. Mistake theorists find narratives about racism useful because they’re a sort of ur-mistake that helps explain how people could make otherwise inexplicable mistakes, like electing Donald Trump or opposing [preferred policy].

Conflict theorists think racism is a conflict between races. White racists aren’t suffering from a cognitive bias, and they’re not mistaken about anything: they’re correct that white supremacy puts them on top, and hoping to stay there. Conflict theorists find narratives about racism useful because they help explain otherwise inexplicable alliances, like why working-class white people have allied with rich white capitalists.
Again, I don't believe either of these. I believe racism is first and foremost a systemic and institutional bias. People have racist ideas because they grow up in a racist society.

Quote
When mistake theorists criticize democracy, it’s because it gives too much power to the average person – who isn’t very smart, and who tends to do things like vote against carbon taxes because they don’t believe in global warming. They fantasize about a technocracy in which informed experts can pursue policy insulated from the vagaries of the electorate.

When conflict theorists criticize democracy, it’s because it doesn’t give enough power to the average person – special interests can buy elections, or convince representatives to betray campaign promises in exchange for cash. They fantasize about a Revolution in which their side rises up, destroys the power of the other side, and wins once and for all.
Here i do sympathize more with the side that is ascribed to "conflict theory".
Logged
You say the ocean's rising, like I give a shit
You say the whole world's ending, honey it already did

silverspawn

  • Adventurer
  • ******
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 5318
  • Shuffle iT Username: sty.silver
    • View Profile
Re: The Necro Wars
« Reply #1417 on: October 10, 2021, 04:54:34 am »

okay consider the claim that you're a conflict theorist also retracted. I will imagine you as not fitting on the spectrum

silverspawn

  • Adventurer
  • ******
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 5318
  • Shuffle iT Username: sty.silver
    • View Profile
Re: The Necro Wars
« Reply #1418 on: October 12, 2021, 04:31:44 pm »

Who wants to predict my result on the gender continuum test?

silverspawn

  • Adventurer
  • ******
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 5318
  • Shuffle iT Username: sty.silver
    • View Profile
Re: The Necro Wars
« Reply #1419 on: October 12, 2021, 04:52:45 pm »

It outputs a probability for male/female

silverspawn

  • Adventurer
  • ******
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 5318
  • Shuffle iT Username: sty.silver
    • View Profile
Re: The Necro Wars
« Reply #1420 on: October 12, 2021, 04:53:08 pm »

silverspawn

  • Adventurer
  • ******
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 5318
  • Shuffle iT Username: sty.silver
    • View Profile
Re: The Necro Wars
« Reply #1421 on: October 13, 2021, 04:41:04 am »

Who wants to predict my result on the gender continuum test?

I think I will take the lack of attempts as further evidence that I'm difficult to understand. Historically, people have usually been hilariously off when trying to predict things about me, even though I'm convinced that I am, in some fundamental way, less complex than most people, at least wrt motives

LaLight

  • Jester
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 774
  • Shuffle iT Username: LaLight
  • Because I'm a potato
    • View Profile
Re: The Necro Wars
« Reply #1422 on: October 13, 2021, 05:03:50 am »

Who wants to predict my result on the gender continuum test?

I think I will take the lack of attempts as further evidence that I'm difficult to understand. Historically, people have usually been hilariously off when trying to predict things about me, even though I'm convinced that I am, in some fundamental way, less complex than most people, at least wrt motives

absolutely unrelated, you were in my dream tonight. We were trying to find some train in Germany and all the trains were late and I was asking you how to find the train we need because you're a local and you looked completely lost as well.

3 funny things about this dream:

1) I realize I read this thread more than any other on forum
2) Just the other day I was talking to my russian friend living in Germany and he was complainig about the trains a lot
3) I still remember how you look.
Logged
Wins: 15, 10
Losses: 11, 5, 1
Draws: 1
MVPs: 4
Mod/Co-mod: 18

I always have a limited access to forum on weekends.

LaLight

  • Jester
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 774
  • Shuffle iT Username: LaLight
  • Because I'm a potato
    • View Profile
Re: The Necro Wars
« Reply #1423 on: October 13, 2021, 05:07:52 am »

I have 70/30 male/female which is somewhat surprising (many people tell me I am very feminine) and not surprising (the test should be somewhat professional at predicting). Also here's the screenshot of the result
Logged
Wins: 15, 10
Losses: 11, 5, 1
Draws: 1
MVPs: 4
Mod/Co-mod: 18

I always have a limited access to forum on weekends.

silverspawn

  • Adventurer
  • ******
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 5318
  • Shuffle iT Username: sty.silver
    • View Profile
Re: The Necro Wars
« Reply #1424 on: October 13, 2021, 12:24:20 pm »

absolutely unrelated, you were in my dream tonight. We were trying to find some train in Germany and all the trains were late and I was asking you how to find the train we need because you're a local and you looked completely lost as well.

Already funny because I dream about barely missing/barely not missing trains all the time. Not so much recently probably because I don't use a lot of trains these days, which is incidentally because of quote #3 (you can't rely on them for important things)

1) I realize I read this thread more than any other on forum

aw <3

2) Just the other day I was talking to my russian friend living in Germany and he was complainig about the trains a lot

Yeah, the train system is really bad; if you have a trip where you say, change twice, you have to assume maybe a 1/3 chance of arriving at your destination with a delay of 30 minutes or more. I think someone at some point screwed up designing the system, perhaps with the software, and no-one has been able to fix it.  But I'm told it's not this bad everywhere.
Pages: 1 ... 55 56 [57] 58 59 ... 273  All
 

Page created in 0.062 seconds with 20 queries.