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Author Topic: The Necro Wars  (Read 337310 times)

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silverspawn

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Re: The Necro Wars
« Reply #3875 on: June 27, 2022, 02:51:56 am »

solid insider though

silverspawn

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Re: The Necro Wars
« Reply #3876 on: June 27, 2022, 02:54:37 am »

Quote
I strongly feel that penguins are the noblest of God’s creatures.

silverspawn

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silverspawn

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Re: The Necro Wars
« Reply #3878 on: June 27, 2022, 04:11:28 am »

It seems like what it took for people to take language models seriously was some dumb guy at google making a dumb publicity stunt (or being an idiot)

silverspawn

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Re: The Necro Wars
« Reply #3879 on: June 27, 2022, 04:11:47 am »

or playing 3 dimensional chess

faust

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Re: The Necro Wars
« Reply #3880 on: June 27, 2022, 06:42:07 am »

Spencer Greenberg on why people actually support overthrowing Roe v. Wade
This is pretty much as expected.

Though I find it funny that 90% say abortion is murder and only 14% that it violates the rights of the child. Like... do you think murder does not violate the rights of a person?
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faust

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Re: The Necro Wars
« Reply #3881 on: June 27, 2022, 06:45:20 am »

Spencer Greenberg on why people actually support overthrowing Roe v. Wade
This is pretty much as expected.

Though I find it funny that 90% say abortion is murder and only 14% that it violates the rights of the child. Like... do you think murder does not violate the rights of a person?
Oh, I saw that was an open-ended question. Nevermind I guess.
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silverspawn

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Re: The Necro Wars
« Reply #3882 on: June 27, 2022, 12:24:20 pm »

So my dad is a recovered alcoholic who is on track to become a relapsed alcoholic. My brother and I are gonna visit him tomorrow and stop that progression. At least that's the plan.

silverspawn

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Re: The Necro Wars
« Reply #3883 on: June 27, 2022, 12:24:53 pm »

I totally didn't expect that he would manage to stop drinking by himself, and then he did. Very bad idea to start again.

silverspawn

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Re: The Necro Wars
« Reply #3884 on: June 27, 2022, 12:34:11 pm »

I have to say the writing I'm finding about this seems pretty terrible

silverspawn

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Re: The Necro Wars
« Reply #3885 on: June 27, 2022, 01:46:41 pm »

Swallowing Hot.?Swallowing Hot.@ 嗫Swallowing Hot.?Swallowing Hot.?Locker Cabinet??ffffff詩ffffff.?wup= W ? ? = I wish the key ffffff 纅ffffff @q= I wish @ ?wu p= W ? p= W繩徛 (\銺? { 铽qi { 铽進?ffffff驩ffffff ?V0┯ @dffffτ?dffffτ緿韜zhen 43333 43333 @(~尮k罱? { 罱巷 { 罱巷?xu= Zhukey ffffff and fffff @V0┯侚?| 0 ?徛 (\ ? (\劭ffffff ffffff ? 1 " @0L
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遵頠 镢?dffff?dffffshrinking 龾澑采?潽 q琙 ?掽 q琙锟囪tBf.@山管@ ?山閇@陈 / -2兯啩Wsheng @醯sheng . Swimming cool?

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Re: The Necro Wars
« Reply #3886 on: June 28, 2022, 12:05:20 am »

So my dad is a recovered alcoholic who is on track to become a relapsed alcoholic. My brother and I are gonna visit him tomorrow and stop that progression. At least that's the plan.

Good on the two of you.
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silverspawn

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Re: The Necro Wars
« Reply #3887 on: June 28, 2022, 04:21:48 pm »

Ten things that are stupid about quidditch in Harry Potter

- Super pay to win. Like wtf. Why don't they all just fly the same broom?
- In lots of games, 8/14 people are irrelevant (if points are < 150 before the snitch is caught)
- If your team is better and the game goes sufficiently long, you as the seeker are disincentivized to catch the snitch so your team has more time to score points
- Extremely dangerous. Some of the balls are literally there to attack people in mid air. Who designed this game?
- Harry's team is just way better than any other one
- All points multiplied by 10 for no reason
- I'm pretty sure the way they determine the overall winner is just by summing up the points from all games. This means games that take more time are way more important
- You can actually win the trophy despite losing all games. (A 1000 : 1010 B, A 1000 : 1010 C, B: 150 : 150 C)
- Extremely luck based. Not just because the snitch could be much closer to you than the enemy seeker when you see it, but also because spotting it initially is luck based
- Being the seeker is actually extremely boring. You do nothing but search, and then the action happens in a few seconds

silverspawn

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Re: The Necro Wars
« Reply #3888 on: June 28, 2022, 04:25:30 pm »

Also, I think they just add quidditch points to house points. Now actually, you should have something like 400000 points at the end of the year based on a fermi calculation, but in the books they have less than 1000. So if one quidditch game goes long, it'll dominate the entire calculation.

silverspawn

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Re: The Necro Wars
« Reply #3889 on: June 28, 2022, 05:20:00 pm »

I have to question the ethics

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Re: The Necro Wars
« Reply #3890 on: June 29, 2022, 06:36:27 pm »

It always feels counterintuitive to me that when you're predicting that something happens with a 80% chance, and you keep predicting things like that, and they all happen, your predictions are actually ShiTty and would be more accurate if they failed 20% of the time.
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silverspawn

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Re: The Necro Wars
« Reply #3891 on: June 30, 2022, 11:10:57 am »

I think your intuition is (probably) pointing to something real! Prediction isn't just about calibration, there are two quantities: calibration  (which is that your x% predictions come true x% of the time) and boldness (which is how far your predictions are away from the baseline). People don't differentiate the two, in fact there's no established name for the latter; boldness is just something I've made up. An 80% prediction is often (though not necessarily) bolder than a 50% prediction, so probably this is what your intuition is based on.

E.g., say two people take the same sheet of paper that has 100 statements written on it. One person flips a coin for each; if it's heads, she bets that the prediction comes true; if it's tails, that it comes false. This person is necessarily perfectly calibrated, but the boldness is 0 (the procedure literally yields perfect calibration for an arbitrary set of statements). The other person sorts them into two buckets and bets 80% TRUE on each in bucket 1 and 80% FALSE on each in bucket 2, and then is "right" every time. Now, the second person isn't perfectly calibrated, sheshould have assigned more than 80%, but her predictions have much more boldness, so overall they may be more impressive.

I think the reason why people struggle with this concept is that baseline isn't an accessible standard. But it's clearly a real thing. Like, I can't tell you what exactly the baseline is for "at the end of 2022, ETH is worth exactly 1502$ and 35cents", but we all understand that it's very low, definitely <1%. And we intuitively understand that successfully deviating from the baseline is impressive.

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silverspawn

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Re: The Necro Wars
« Reply #3893 on: June 30, 2022, 11:18:01 am »

Electionbettingodds just moved up 5% for Democrats

... is this because of Nate's model?

silverspawn

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Re: The Necro Wars
« Reply #3894 on: June 30, 2022, 11:19:08 am »

If so t hat would be pretty interesting because (assuming Nate's model is "correct"), it would basically mean that the force that ought to win the "easy money" is present, but it's not strong enough to make the market adequate.

silverspawn

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Re: The Necro Wars
« Reply #3895 on: June 30, 2022, 12:25:12 pm »

the violin is the most graceful of all instruments

silverspawn

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Re: The Necro Wars
« Reply #3896 on: June 30, 2022, 01:43:24 pm »

This is obviously not a meaningful point in defense of the practice, but man it's crazy how thin the plastic on some of the packaging really is. The actual amount of material must be tiny

silverspawn

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Re: The Necro Wars
« Reply #3897 on: June 30, 2022, 01:44:34 pm »

for a single item, I mean.

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Re: The Necro Wars
« Reply #3898 on: June 30, 2022, 01:48:17 pm »

the violin is the most graceful of all instruments

The violin is the worst. It is super uncomfortable to play and there's a million things you're doing wrong all the time and it's impossible to concentrate on all of them at the same time, it's also impossible to know if your position is ShiTty because you're ShiTty or because your chin rest and shoulder rest are not the right ones for your body shape, and it's also impossible to figure out which chin rest and shoulder rest would be right for you, and it's ridiculously difficult to get it in tune, and it's going to sound like ShiT until you're a super pro violinist, and everything is ShiTty overall.

Like, I have played the cello for 22 years and I thought it wouldn't be too much effort to transfer those skills onto the violin (and really, a lot of it is pretty directly transferable without too much effort, but there's a ton of more bullShiT you have to learn in addition). It was orders of magnitude easier to learn the trumpet with no prior experience on wind instruments at all.
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Re: The Necro Wars
« Reply #3899 on: June 30, 2022, 02:02:34 pm »

Acoustic guitar is pretty awful too. You'd think you can play the acoustic guitar when you're pretty good at the electric guitar, but no, welcome to the realm of acoustic guitars where 12-53 strings for standard E tuning are considered "light".
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Bomb, Cannon, and many of the Gunpowder cards can strongly effect gameplay, particularly in a destructive way

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